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Article: Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 12:52 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ing-Projections

#2 sorney

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 06:59 AM

Two 30 HR's guys on the same team?!?!?! Is that allowed in baseball?!?!?

Nice work overall. It'll be fun to see how close you get

#3 beckmt

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:19 AM

Seem to be missing some MI AB's. That would probably drag the numbers down. Or believing the Twins will pick up a middle infielder somewhere along the line. Good job and very interesting though.

#4 MWLFan

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:34 AM

One of the more interesting battles during the season will be to see whose BA can go lower...Florimon or Butera. Seth is putting Pedro as the early season favorite. But only 62 games of that kind of offensive output. Guess he is counting on a lot of Jamey Carroll and Escobar. Either way it looks like Pedro's best bet is to just launch himself at any ball on the inside of the plate in hopes it grazes his body somewhere that will not hurt so much. Maybe he can amass more HBP then actual hits.

#5 johnnydakota

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:53 AM

yes i to noticed about 250 missing at bats for the middle infield , along with great pleasure seeing very limited playing time for Drew,but still have 1300 plate apperences for catcher and dh spot

#6 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 08:05 AM

If Jamey Carroll plays both SS and 2B does he only bat once?
Fun stuff Seth. Thank you.

Really like the Mauer, Morneau & Willingham numbers. Some pop in the lineup would be great.

#7 mike wants wins

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 08:27 AM

Great writeup Seth, thanks.

#8 jay

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 08:54 AM

Great stuff, Seth. It's always fun to add a little of the 'gut' dimension back in from some of the heartless computer projections. I'd love to see those seasons out of Mauer and Morneau... and even Plouffe.

The number that catches my eye is the overall OPS vs runs scored. OPS has correlated higher than almost any other stat to runs scored for a while now and .763 would have been top 5 last year. http://espn.go.com/b...rgument-for-ops If we assume the other ABs mentioned (300 or so) are closer to .600, they'd still be top 10 at around .755 and 740 runs.

At the end of the day, I think both the OBP and SLG will be a few ticks lower, but I love it overall.

#9 ericchri

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:00 AM

Wow, I'm expecting Florimon to (not) hit his way out of the SS job, but even I couldn't predict that pathetic a season. I'm curious how much of that is just gut feeling and how much actual projection. I'd have pegged him for around .210/.260/.300 which is still pathetic and a fair bit better than this projection.

I hope you're right about Morneau and Dozier. I expect Plouffe to be very streaky and Parmelee to be a fairly consistent decent hitter (similar to Doumit), so having another slugger in the lineup in Morneau to pair with Willingham would be fantastic, and we'll need one of the guys from the bottom of the order to hit better than expected, and Dozier seem like our best chance. Honestly, if you get a .685 OPS season from Carroll and a .720 OPS season from Dozier, you have to be pretty happy. Of course Florimon is gonna suck up a bunch of those at-bats to start the season off...

#10 Boom Boom

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:22 AM

I think you're being more bullish than I'd be on Dozier and Benson. If Florimon hits like you're projecting him, the Twins can't seriously justify keeping him as the starting shortstop all season.

#11 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:24 AM

I think there are a few people too bullish (Doumit and Willingham come to mind) but I do think if Plouffe manages to hit 25 homeruns, I expect his RBI total to be closer to 80.

#12 tjsyam921

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:29 AM

I think Morneau's homers will be a little lower, Doziers a little higher, and all Parmelee's numbers will be higher.

#13 mcrow

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:30 AM

I have to say I think you're a bit overly positive on several players. I appreciate the positivity though.;)

#14 jmlease1

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:36 AM

can we DH for our SS instead of our pitcher? It might work better than letting Florimon swing the bat the way things are starting to look.

#15 Steve Lein

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 11:04 AM

I'd be extremely happy with these projections, as the OBP and OPS numbers put this as one of the top offenses in the league, like top 5 for sure, both well above league average. But you also project fewer runs scored (below league avg., and which are a good margin lower than what those OBP/OPS numbers would project), which is logical considering they are replacing two guys who hit at the top of the order last year and scored 141 runs between them (Span, Revere).

#16 ThePuck

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 11:13 AM

Nice job Seth. There are some things I disagree with...for example I don't think Mauer will have a career high in strikeouts...but overall, it was pretty nice to see you put it all out there. I'd give it a 'like' but that feature seems to be missing...at least in my view.

#17 spycake

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 11:56 AM

Actually, not as bullish as I expected from Seth, but still a bit bullish. For example, that team HR total would easily be a Target Field record, and almost match the Twins 2009 Metrodome power surge. Someday, it will probably happen, but I don't see that happening this year.

Also, there are no predictions here for anyone to "crater" -- every year recently the Twins have had several players, even regulars, see significant performance drops (or fail to establish an acceptable performance level, in the case of rookies). I don't see that trend completely disappearing in one year. Dozier, Escobar, Parmelee, Mastroianni, and Benson are likely candidates for this in 2013. So is Plouffe, after his second-half collapse in 2012, plus rookies (Hicks, Arcia) and old guys (Carroll), of course.

#18 jimbo92107

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 12:03 PM

Florimon .189 vs. Escobar .259? That's pretty much saying Escobar should be the regular SS.

With that arm, maybe Florimon could try out for closer.

#19 Nick Nelson

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 12:19 PM

These numbers all seem very plausible and reasonable to me. Nice job.

#20 mcrow

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 12:38 PM

These numbers all seem very plausible and reasonable to me. Nice job.


I agree, but do think that it is possible to plausible (It could happen) and reasonable (not without reason) but some of these are unlikely at the same time.

#21 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:37 PM

Seth very interesting article and set of offensive numbers--overly bullish to say the least. I disagree with most people and say they are not reasonable at all because you forgot to factor in time on the DL. You have Mauer playing 143 games, Doumit 127, Plouffe 154, Morneau 142 and Willingham 151. It is possible that one or two of these guys will avoid the DL--but all 5--given their history no way. (Yes, Doumit could spend time on the DL and get 127 appearances but not likely.) I gather you have Hicks coming up sometime around memorial day and displacing Mastro--if he is on team all year--he plays 120plus--Gardy and Ryan wont keep him on MLB roster to keep him on bench,.

#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:15 PM

If Florimon hits like you're projecting him, the Twins can't seriously justify keeping him as the starting shortstop all season.


That's why I have him playing 62 games or so... my assumption is he'd get two months and be gone by mid-June.

#23 Seth Stohs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:17 PM

I have to say I think you're a bit overly positive on several players. I appreciate the positivity though.;)


Someone has to show a little positivity, right?

#24 Seth Stohs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:20 PM

Florimon .189 vs. Escobar .259? That's pretty much saying Escobar should be the regular SS.

With that arm, maybe Florimon could try out for closer.


I'd be comfortable with that.

#25 mcrow

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:20 PM

Someone has to show a little positivity, right?


I like the Morneau stat line, would love it if that happens. Lets cross fingers and hope it happens because that would be huge for the Twins to be watchable this year. :cry:

#26 Seth Stohs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:21 PM

I agree, but do think that it is possible to plausible (It could happen) and reasonable (not without reason) but some of these are unlikely at the same time.


As is the case with all projections, including those that get used over and over on the interwebs. I definitely don't claim to have any perfect formula. I look at past history, and pay a little more attention to the last couple of years, age, trends, and put it all together.

#27 Seth Stohs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:25 PM

Seth very interesting article and set of offensive numbers--overly bullish to say the least. I disagree with most people and say they are not reasonable at all because you forgot to factor in time on the DL. You have Mauer playing 143 games, Doumit 127, Plouffe 154, Morneau 142 and Willingham 151. It is possible that one or two of these guys will avoid the DL--but all 5--given their history no way. (Yes, Doumit could spend time on the DL and get 127 appearances but not likely.) I gather you have Hicks coming up sometime around memorial day and displacing Mastro--if he is on team all year--he plays 120plus--Gardy and Ryan wont keep him on MLB roster to keep him on bench,.


I considered injuries and DL time, but obviously that's completely unpredictable... There are a lot of teams that have guys that play over 150 games a year. I'm predicting the Twins will have a couple too. I don't know if they're the right ones, but we'll find out.

Correct on my thoughts of Hicks taking over in probably early June. I also have Benson being up the full season, or most of it, and splitting time with Mastroianni at the start of the season and then sticking around later because once Hicks is up, Hicks'll play most every day.

#28 mcrow

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:28 PM

As is the case with all projections, including those that get used over and over on the interwebs. I definitely don't claim to have any perfect formula. I look at past history, and pay a little more attention to the last couple of years, age, trends, and put it all together.


No worries Seth, I'm not saying I could do better but like you said no system is perfect and you could very well be right and I'm undersetimating some guys. I sure as heck hope yours are right because it's going to be a massacist's paradise around here if mine are right...:roll:

#29 jimbo92107

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 03:01 PM

If both Benson and Hicks have better projected averages then Mastrioanni, then the Twins should just plant them in the outfield and leave them there. This team needs to give fans a reason to buy tickets. Their pitching staff is like a Tommy John convention, and they traded away their two best on-base guys. Give us something to make us smile!

#30 Thrylos

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 05:31 PM

Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:

[TABLE="class: cms_table, width: 498"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2013 Predictions[/TD]
[TD]688 R
[/TD]
[TD]1388[/TD]
[TD]288[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]HR 669 RBI
[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[TD]614[/TD]
[TD]1095[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2012 Totals[/TD]
[TD]701 R
[/TD]
[TD]1448[/TD]
[TD]270[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]131
[/TD]
[TD]HR 667 RBI
[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]505[/TD]
[TD]1069[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...
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