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Yet another RA Dickey thread...

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#1 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:03 PM

Now there are a few more facts coming to light in the case of RA Dickey. Basically he wants a two year extension for $26 million dollars. Which means his contract would be as follow:

2013: 5 million
2014: 13 million
2015: 13 million

Honestly? That isn't to bad all things considered, especially coming for a guy with a Cy Young.

Now, this of course means he won't come cheaply. If you are the Twins do you consider trading away a package of prospects for him? (You will have to trade at least one of the "top 8" and at least two more top 20 guys, which still might not be enough)

Thoughts?

#2 mikeee

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:11 PM

I never see the Twins mentioned in the rumours for Dickey.
The cost doesn't seem all that bad.

#3 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:12 PM

I'd give Dickey more than that for a two year deal.

#4 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:19 PM

I never see the Twins mentioned in the rumours for Dickey.
The cost doesn't seem all that bad.


It's pretty rare to see the Twins mentioned in many rumors to be honest. The Span deal came together rather quickly as did the Revere one (even though the Phillies were trying to get Revere for months)

There was also a lot of speculation that the Twins are/were the mystery team in the Sanchez sweepstakes. So it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Ryan wasn't trying to get Dickey (unless the asking price was way to high currently)

I'm not sure what the hell the Mets are doing, 2/26 is more then fair, but they are in drastic need of fixing their terrible farm system.

#5 Top Gun

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:19 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?

#6 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:21 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?


Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.

#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:26 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?


Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.


Hasn't anybody told you that they moved the start of Spring Training to December 15th, Dave?

#8 Oxtung

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:35 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?


Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.


I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?

#9 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 06:24 PM

I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?

That wasn't his point at all actually...
To your point:
The same Dempster who got absolutely lit up in Texas? He is the same quality as the guy who just won the NL Cy Young?

Lets take a look at the numbers, shall we?
Dickey last 3 seasons: 2.84 ERA, 3.28 ERA, 2.73 ERA
Dempster: 3.85, 4.80, 3.38 (5.09 in AL)

This isn't even bringing into the fact that Dickey will most certainly age better as a Knuckleballer, and was able to do things with the pitch that no player has done before. I was at one of his one hitters last season, and it was one of the most dominant pitching performances I have ever seen.

You can make the argument to sign Dempster because he won't cost prospects, but to say are "Similar" quality is an exaggeration.

Once again, Dickey is coming off a Cy Young Win. Dempster is looking like a #3 or #4 in the AL at best.

#10 Shane Wahl

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 06:36 PM

I wouldn't read too much into Dempster's limited time in the AL last year.

Dickey means one top and one near-top prospect, probably. I would rather just spend the same amount of money without depleting the system.

#11 Chance

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 06:48 PM

If only we would have kept him years ago... Wishful thinking.

#12 Rosterman

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 07:21 PM

Dickey will age gracefully as a knuckleballer. He has already aged. Not sure how much older he can get and he'll just remain competent or downrite ugly. Plus, you need someone to catch him. Dickey is a bargain for his 39th year. There is no need for the Mets or anyone to sign him to an extension until they see how he repeats. Especially at those prices. Dempster MIGHT have more of an upside, but that third year IS the killer. If I had to choose between Dempster, Myers or that other reliever that used to start, I would take the other two over Dempsey, for probably a lot less. The Mets can rid themselves of Dickey and get a prospect (high) or two, they should go for it. The new team doesn't have to extend the contract. Everything works against Dickey, except that he marvelously WON a Cy Young somehow. Who would've ever thought.
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#13 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 08:23 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?


The correct question is why trade your future for a guy who will be both 40 and a FA when that futue is the present?

#14 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 08:39 PM

Dickey will age gracefully as a knuckleballer. He has already aged. Not sure how much older he can get and he'll just remain competent or downrite ugly. Plus, you need someone to catch him. Dickey is a bargain for his 39th year. There is no need for the Mets or anyone to sign him to an extension until they see how he repeats. Especially at those prices. Dempster MIGHT have more of an upside, but that third year IS the killer. If I had to choose between Dempster, Myers or that other reliever that used to start, I would take the other two over Dempsey, for probably a lot less. The Mets can rid themselves of Dickey and get a prospect (high) or two, they should go for it. The new team doesn't have to extend the contract. Everything works against Dickey, except that he marvelously WON a Cy Young somehow. Who would've ever thought.


If I'm the Mets, I give Dickey his $26m and shut up. If he comes close to repeating, he can demand a 3/$39m or higher and get it. If he's merely good-to-very-good (which he has been for three years running now), he's worth over $13m a year. If he's anywhere close to his 2012 numbers, he's a $20m or better player.

For the Mets, $26m is a very manageable risk. Hell, it's a manageable risk for the Twins when you're talking the kind of upside Dickey can bring. Over the past three seasons, Dickey is a ten win player.

#15 Oxtung

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 08:48 PM


I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?

That wasn't his point at all actually...
To your point:
The same Dempster who got absolutely lit up in Texas? He is the same quality as the guy who just won the NL Cy Young?

Lets take a look at the numbers, shall we?
Dickey last 3 seasons: 2.84 ERA, 3.28 ERA, 2.73 ERA
Dempster: 3.85, 4.80, 3.38 (5.09 in AL)

This isn't even bringing into the fact that Dickey will most certainly age better as a Knuckleballer, and was able to do things with the pitch that no player has done before. I was at one of his one hitters last season, and it was one of the most dominant pitching performances I have ever seen.

You can make the argument to sign Dempster because he won't cost prospects, but to say are "Similar" quality is an exaggeration.

Once again, Dickey is coming off a Cy Young Win. Dempster is looking like a #3 or #4 in the AL at best.


Here are some other stats to compare:

Last 3 Seasons:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]Season/Player[/TD]
[TD]FIP[/TD]
[TD]xFIP[/TD]
[TD]WAR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010/Dickey
[/TD]
[TD]3.65
[/TD]
[TD]3.75
[/TD]
[TD]2.8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010/Dempster
[/TD]
[TD]3.99
[/TD]
[TD]3.74
[/TD]
[TD]3.2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011/Dickey
[/TD]
[TD]3.77
[/TD]
[TD]3.95
[/TD]
[TD]2.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011/Dempster
[/TD]
[TD]3.91
[/TD]
[TD]3.70
[/TD]
[TD]2.7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012/Dickey
[/TD]
[TD]3.27
[/TD]
[TD]3.27
[/TD]
[TD]4.6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012/Dempster
[/TD]
[TD]3.69
[/TD]
[TD]3.77
[/TD]
[TD]3.3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dickey Average/Total
[/TD]
[TD]3.56
[/TD]
[TD]3.66
[/TD]
[TD]9.9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dempster Average/Total
[/TD]
[TD]3.86
[/TD]
[TD]3.74
[/TD]
[TD]9.2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Seems pretty comparable to me.

Dickey is a few years older than Dempster so even if knuckleballers age better they aren't starting from the same place. Personally I think they both will be putting up 5+ ERA's in 3 years.

To my larger point however, in comparison to the Twins starting rotation last year they are very similar pitchers. Both of them are DRASTICALLY better than what we had. Considering that we as fans mostly agree 2013 isn't going to be a contending year and that we should be looking to stockpile young talent:

Why would you give up good prospects for Dickey when you could just sign Dempster?

#16 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 09:00 PM

Dickey and Dempster are similar right now but Dickey is set up to age much more gracefully.

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 09:34 PM

They aren't similar at all. Over the last 3 years dickey has a signicantly lowe ERA. And he appears to only be getting better with his mastering of the knuckleball. Dickey is literally doing something no other player in the history of baseball has been able to do. You certainly don't have to worry about his arm wearing down, since he is missing the tendon anyways! As far as the rest of his "health" the dude just climbed Mount Kilimanjaro last year then won the Cy Young, I don't see his body breaking down signifcantly anytime in the next 3 years. Dempster? Not so much.

Give me the high upside guy who can have a decent shot at being an ace anyday. The twins have plenty of guys who can possibly be middle of the rotation type guys: diamond, Worley, Gibson, hendriks. We need a guy who can go out and pitch a 9 inning one hitter any given night.(like dickey did Two games in a row last year)

#18 spycake

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 09:37 PM

Hicks, Mastroianni, and Benson for Dickey -- I'm calling it now. Who needs a CF?

#19 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 09:45 PM

I would offer: Arcia, Boer and Hendriks in a heartbeat.

#20 Mark_RM

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 10:14 PM

As tempting as getting Dickey would be, the Twins are a year or two away from trading away any top prospect for major league talent in their 30s.

#21 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 10:24 PM

As tempting as getting Dickey would be, the Twins are a year or two away from trading away any top prospect for major league talent in their 30s.

The thing is: Dickey is your typical pitcher in his 30's, he is just finding his grove now. Normally I would agree with you, but Dickey is truly his own special case. The upside is there, and he could help a ton in 2013/2014/2015. It's not like this is a one year thing we are talking about!

Also: Dickey ERA last three years 2.95
Dempster: 4.04

How could we turn down a guy who has the potential to post a sub or low 3.00 ERA without having to commit 100+ million to him!

If it just takes one of our "elite 8" and a couple other pieces, why not pull the trigger? Having nice prospects is....well...nice and all, but I think you have to try to get the one CY Young pitcher you can realistically get.

#22 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 11:23 PM

Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....

Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.

#23 Oxtung

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:50 AM

Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....

Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.


I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects.

So to sum it up:
Huge Risk
Costs Prospects
Other options

Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion.

#24 Otwins

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:01 AM

I would bet you could offer lower ranked prospects if you also took Santana back. Mets would probably love to include his $20+ million salary. They just extended Wright and owner has money trouble. We need 2 more pitchers and have the $25 million to spend.

#25 Shane Wahl

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:14 AM

Dickey is not coming back to the Twins. I guarantee you that.

#26 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:17 AM

Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....

Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.


I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects.

So to sum it up:
Huge Risk
Costs Prospects
Other options

Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion.


Dude, he is a knuckleball Pitcher.XFIP/FIP and several others don't apply to him as much as the other 99.5% of pitchers who aren't knuckleballers. Most of the time when hitter did put bat on ball it was with very weak contact. Hell even with that said his xFIP and FIP were 3.27 last year, add in his 2.73 ERA and k/bb rate and that is top of the rotation stuff all the way. Granted his strand rate was 5% higher then normal, but at the same time his HR% was high as well, what does this say about 2012? It wasn't a fluke for Dickey. Also his two years prior were pretty damn good as well!

As far as knuckleballers not aging well, I'm not sure what you mean. Wakefield pitched effectively into his 41 year season, and wasn't even that god awful in his 42 age year. Phil Niekro had a 3.09 ERA when he was 45! His brother Joe had a sub 4.00 ERA his 40th year and pitched to 43.

Also as I mentioned in the other thread:

Lannan has a better Career ERA then Dempster, and a better past 3 full seasons ERA then Dempster. This isn't to say Dempster has no value or Lannan is better, it just illustrates that Dempster at 3 years and no prospects is not better then Dickey at 3 years and some prospects.

Give me Dickey any day of the week over Dempster, especially if it only costs 26 mil over 2 years and only 1 of our top 8 prospects (+ some other pieces)

#27 RodneyKline

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 02:01 AM

Why is everyone throwing around these big numbers for pitchers that will not make the team viable this decade. We need to spend a little more per year: $20 million or so or 7 years, 140 million for the 29 year old Grienke. He would be the Ace this team desperately needs not a 39 year old circus performer knuckleballer at his peak (that we also had the year prior to his three year excellent run). I say that the extra $20 million per year changes us from a below .500 team for the rest of the decade to an annual contender.

I know payroll needs to go up but if it were my money, I would rather bet on a $110-$120 million payroll with Grienke than a $100 million payroll or more for RA Dickey or Dempster. The Twins have spent this much in MLB payroll the last three years and it is clear that this team without a #1 or #2 starter will not compete. With Grienke, Terry Ryan would also not have to keep begging average at best pitchers to take his money. No FA pitcher of any value wants to go to a team not serious about contending now (no matter what TR says, we are not a contender without a #1 or #2 starter). No team is!

Attendance and overall revenue will keep declining unless the Twins field a competitor and prove to the fans that buying them a new stadium was going to make us competitive. It is a huge lie so far but I am not giving up on Jim Pohlad. TR is a cheapskate but JP is not cheap like his Father. He just needs someone to convince him that spending the money will be a good investment. I feel strongly that adding Grienke for a $120m total payroll is a much smarter investment than $100 million on a team without a #1 or a #2 pitcher. We are competitive in our division with an ace that matches up with Verlander or any other ace and not competitive without an ace.

Edited by RodneyKline, 08 December 2012 - 02:25 AM.


#28 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 02:42 AM

Why is everyone throwing around these big numbers for pitchers that will not make the team viable this decade. We need to spend a little more per year: $20 million or so or 7 years, 140 million for the 29 year old Grienke. He would be the Ace this team desperately needs not a 39 year old circus performer knuckleballer at his peak (that we also had the year prior to his three year excellent run). I say that the extra $20 million per year changes us from a below .500 team for the rest of the decade to an annual contender.

I know payroll needs to go up but if it were my money, I would rather bet on a $110-$120 million payroll with Grienke than a $100 million payroll or more for RA Dickey or Dempster. The Twins have spent this much in MLB payroll the last three years and it is clear that this team without a #1 or #2 starter will not compete. With Grienke, Terry Ryan would also not have to keep begging average at best pitchers to take his money. No FA pitcher of any value wants to go to a team not serious about contending now (no matter what TR says, we are not a contender without a #1 or #2 starter). No team is!

Attendance and overall revenue will keep declining unless the Twins field a competitor and prove to the fans that buying them a new stadium was going to make us competitive. It is a huge lie so far but I am not giving up on Jim Pohlad. TR is a cheapskate but JP is not cheap like his Father. He just needs someone to convince him that spending the money will be a good investment. I feel strongly that adding Grienke for a $120m total payroll is a much smarter investment than $100 million on a team without a #1 or a #2 pitcher. We are competitive in our division with an ace that matches up with Verlander or any other ace and not competitive without an ace.


2010: Greinke: 4.17 ERA
2011: Greinke: 3.83 ERA
2012: Greinke: 3.48 ERA

2010: Dickey: 2.84 ERA
2011: Dickey: 3.28 ERA
2102: Dickey: 2.73 ERA

Can we please stop with the "Derp, Dickey is Old and he will suck moving forward" when there is zero evidence supporting that case?

You want to tie up 7 years and $140 million in ****ing Zach Grienke? A guy who is about as mentally stable as a 15 year old fat girl? $140 million to a guy with a career 3.77 ERA and 3.62 xFIP? Greinke is solid no doubt, and a better option then Dickey moving forward. But $115 million extra over 4 years better? looooool no.

#29 Oxtung

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 04:09 AM

[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Oxtung'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....

Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.[/QUOTE]

I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects.

So to sum it up:
Huge Risk
Costs Prospects
Other options

Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion.[/QUOTE]

Dude, he is a knuckleball Pitcher.XFIP/FIP and several others don't apply to him as much as the other 99.5% of pitchers who aren't knuckleballers. Most of the time when hitter did put bat on ball it was with very weak contact. Hell even with that said his xFIP and FIP were 3.27 last year, add in his 2.73 ERA and k/bb rate and that is top of the rotation stuff all the way. Granted his strand rate was 5% higher then normal, but at the same time his HR% was high as well, what does this say about 2012? It wasn't a fluke for Dickey. Also his two years prior were pretty damn good as well!

As far as knuckleballers not aging well, I'm not sure what you mean. Wakefield pitched effectively into his 41 year season, and wasn't even that god awful in his 42 age year. Phil Niekro had a 3.09 ERA when he was 45! His brother Joe had a sub 4.00 ERA his 40th year and pitched to 43.

Also as I mentioned in the other thread:

Lannan has a better Career ERA then Dempster, and a better past 3 full seasons ERA then Dempster. This isn't to say Dempster has no value or Lannan is better, it just illustrates that Dempster at 3 years and no prospects is not better then Dickey at 3 years and some prospects.

Give me Dickey any day of the week over Dempster, especially if it only costs 26 mil over 2 years and only 1 of our top 8 prospects (+ some other pieces)[/QUOTE]


Knuckleballers vs. FIP

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
Why exactly do these not apply to him? Does his knuckleball change how many HR's, BB's or k's he has? If it was true that knuckleballers were exempt from this stat it would show up in other knuckleballers stats. Here are career ERA and FIP numbers of a few knuckleballers as well as Dickey's 3 year average:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 250"]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]ERA[/TD]
[TD]FIP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.Niekro[/TD]
[TD]3.35[/TD]
[TD]3.62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wakefield[/TD]
[TD]4.41[/TD]
[TD]4.72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J.Niekro[/TD]
[TD]3.59[/TD]
[TD]3.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dickey[/TD]
[TD]2.94[/TD]
[TD]3.68[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
From these numbers I think it's safe to say FIP works for knuckleballers. If FIP works then so does WAR since WAR is based on FIP.

Fluke
Any time a pitcher's K/9 rate increases from 6 to 9 for one season that is the definition of flukey (which was what I said...not that his season as a whole was flukey).

Aging
Wakefield and the Niekro brothers aged well, good for them. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens aged well too. These anectdotes mean little with regards to how other pitchers will perform as they age.

Lannan vs. Dempster vs. Dickey

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]ERA[/TD]
[TD]FIP[/TD]
[TD]WAR[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lannan[/TD]
[TD]3.90[/TD]
[TD]4.48[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dempster[/TD]
[TD]4.04[/TD]
[TD]4.00[/TD]
[TD]9.6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dickey[/TD]
[TD]2.95[/TD]
[TD]3.70[/TD]
[TD]9.9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Looks like Dempster and Dickey are pretty comparable with Lannan a distant 3rd in everything except ERA. These numbers include Lannan's pretty decent 2009 but excludes Dempsters good and Dickey's terrible 2009. If you include Dempster and Dickey's 2009 the numbers start to skew Dempsters direction.

Dempster vs. Dickey


As I said before, you are certainly capable of having your own opinion. However, nothing you have presented has changed anything in my mind. Advanced metrics show Dickey and Dempster are similar quality pitchers over the last few years. Seemingly the only major difference is in their ERA's which is not a good predictor of future success. They are asking for similar length contracts with similar dollar amounts but Dickey would require some good prospects as well. The Twins are in semi-rebuild mode, at a minimum, so trading prospects doesn't make much sense to me.

#30 raindog

raindog

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 04:10 AM

Bringing up Dickey's stats from the past 10 years is a joke if you know anything about his back story. How can you not know anything about his back story?

He's a great pitcher who could definitely pitch well into his 40s. Still, he's not a good fit for the Twins. We're not an ace away from competing. We need to develop aces.