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Strib's JoeC: Brett Myers' Agent says Twins "perhaps very interested"

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#1 Jim Crikket

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 01:07 PM

Story link: http://www.startribu...61.html?refer=y

Brett Myers is an interesting idea, though I'm sure his lack of overpowering speed and mediocre (to be kind) strikeout rates will fail to excite most Twins fans. If Myers would turn out to be the "biggest" addition to the rotation that Terry Ryan can come up with, I would be less than thrilled, as well, but let's be honest... the Twins are not going to be high on the list of teams for most top free agent pitchers. Teams that have lost as many games as the Twins have lately often have to settle for pitchers who are trying to re-establish themselves and with Myers trying to find a team that will give him an opportunity to earn a rotation spot, rather than a bullpen gig, it may be a logical match.

That being the case, I don't think I'd have any objection at all to the Twins signing Myers to a low guarantee plus incentives deal. If you're Myers, you certainly have to look at the guys the Twins current starters and think, "hell I KNOW I'm better than those guys."
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#2 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 01:14 PM

Im fine with Myers since he's had 3 200+IP yrs with 3 more over 190 as long as its not the 'big' move. Brett would be fine as a 4/5 type starter (I believe Diamond is a 3/4 tops). Still need a minimum of 2 more starters then....could get by with Liam Hendriks as a 5 guy.
This is the prototypical Terry Ryan move.....1yr with low money for a guy to establish himself. Not taking much of a chance.

#3 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 02:05 PM

He will be 32. If the moves stops the Twins from seeking and using a younger pitcher who will be part of the future solution, then I hope they go another direction.

Assuming he can pitch somewhere between the level of his age 29 and 30 years, he will have value at the trade deadline. That only works if the contract is friendly. In that case, he can be an asset that will help the future.

My fear is the Twins will pull a Doumit. He will be a bargain this year. Instead of flipping him for younger talent, they will extend him through 2015 and buy his age 33 and 34 seasons.

#4 Kwak

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 02:32 PM

After the embarassment from Baker, I can certainly see Ryan moving hard for Myers. Offer 1 year for a bit more than Baker, then toss in te incentives--and forget an option year. Best case scenario, Myers signs, pitches 200 innings and has an ERA in the low 4's. Absolutely nothing wrong with offering a two-year contract for more of that. It is a virtual certainty that if the Twins sign three new guys to start for 2013--one of them will be a bust. 33/34 year olds are not garbage, and there will be a need for placeholders until the entire pitching staff is rebuilt from Rookie League all the way though the Twins. There is plenty of optimim with the success of several new guys last season--but few will actually make it! This rebuild will take years and there will be disappointments.

#5 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 02:59 PM

I'd be all on-board with the signing of someone like Myers for a Baker-like deal. I'd always want the option year though, in case he handles the return to starting well. Best case scenario, he pitches great from April through July and they can trade him for a legit prospect at the deadline. by June, I'd like to see Diamond, Hendriks, and Gibson as 3/5 of the rotation. I'd be on board with signing Myers. (and I'll still hold out for Anibal Sanchez because he can be that #1 type guy for the next 5-6 years.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 03:29 PM

My fear is the Twins will pull a Doumit. He will be a bargain this year. Instead of flipping him for younger talent, they will extend him through 2015 and buy his age 33 and 34 seasons.


It's pretty hard to complain about the Twins locking up a guy for two years at $3.5m per year. As long as the Twins get a decent deal, I'm not against signing an older pitcher (provided that he's not the Twins "big move" for the entire offseason).

#7 mike wants wins

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 03:56 PM

If this is the third best pitcher they get, sure.

#8 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 04:08 PM

If this is the third best pitcher they get, sure.


I think peoples' expectations are far too high. The Twins are not going to get two pitchers better than Brett Myers and Brett Myers. They may get two pitchers better than Brett. They may get Brett and a pitcher better than him. But two pitchers better than him while also signing him to a short contract? Nope. That's a tall order when 29 other teams are fighting for those same pitchers in free agency.

#9 Riverbrian

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 04:42 PM

No problem here with Myers providing we land someone better in addition.

#10 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 04:53 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='jorgenswest']
My fear is the Twins will pull a Doumit. He will be a bargain this year. Instead of flipping him for younger talent, they will extend him through 2015 and buy his age 33 and 34 seasons.[/QUOTE]

It's pretty hard to complain about the Twins locking up a guy for two years at $3.5m per year. As long as the Twins get a decent deal, I'm not against signing an older pitcher (provided that he's not the Twins "big move" for the entire offseason).[/QUOTE]


They should have moved him at the deadline instead of the early commitment.

I care more about the twins investing in the future. Those second half at bats should have been invested in Parmelee's development.

His age, injury history, contract and inability to play adequately at any position make it difficult to get any value back right now.

#11 beckmt

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 05:26 PM

No problem with this as long as Twins get an option year and the price is right. He has filled all roles so could be more valuable than most. Still hoping for 2 better starters, but the more options the Twins have the better chance they have

#12 Top Gun

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 05:31 PM

Myers would be ok, but we need one alot better.

#13 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 05:40 PM

They should have moved him at the deadline instead of the early commitment.

I care more about the twins investing in the future. Those second half at bats should have been invested in Parmelee's development.

His age, injury history, contract and inability to play adequately at any position make it difficult to get any value back right now.


Doumit's value doubled the moment he signed that extension. If the need should arise, the Twins will get more for him now that he's been extended through 2014. You're flat-out wrong about his value. He's an incredibly valuable piece that 2/3rds of teams would love to have on their roster. Once you factor in his $7m salary for two years, you could probably bump that number to 28-29 teams. Henry Blanco made $1.2m last season and OPSed at .500. You're drastically undervaluing what backup catchers are paid. Backup catchers who OPS at .800 are a crown jewel of baseball; most teams can't find a starting catcher that OPSes at .700, much less .800.

Given Mauer's questionable ability to play catcher more than 100 games a season, Doumit is just about the best player the Twins could have picked up last offseason. He has a bat and is an adequate catcher if he's only behind the dish 50 times a year. The Twins couldn't have played the Doumit situation any better than they played it. Signed him to a one year deal and then extended him right before the deadline (and they said that if a deal couldn't be reached, they would have moved him).

I don't know what some of you expect from the Twins. They still need to field all nine positions and Doumit is dirt-cheap for his production level. He's a friggin' steal at $3.5m per year. Do you really expect fans to pay to watch Drew ****ing Butera (also known as the worst hitter in Major League Baseball) play 80 times a year? Doumit isn't preventing Parmelee from getting ABs. The Twins front office and management is preventing Parmelee from getting ABs. Instead of complaining about Doumit being on the team (a productive player at a necessary position playing for way less than he's worth), we should be asking why Span is still on the team because Denard, unlike Doumit, actually had value at last year's deadline. There are three players the team could trade to make room for Parmelee and all of them either make more money or carry much more value in trade than Ryan did last July and none of them double as a part-time catcher who OPSes around .800.

#14 ThePuck

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 06:22 PM

we are the team that settles....

#15 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 06:31 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='jorgenswest']

They should have moved him at the deadline instead of the early commitment.

I care more about the twins investing in the future. Those second half at bats should have been invested in Parmelee's development.

His age, injury history, contract and inability to play adequately at any position make it difficult to get any value back right now.[/QUOTE]

Doumit's value doubled the moment he signed that extension. If the need should arise, the Twins will get more for him now that he's been extended through 2014. You're flat-out wrong about his value. He's an incredibly valuable piece that 2/3rds of teams would love to have on their roster. Once you factor in his $7m salary for two years, you could probably bump that number to 28-29 teams. Henry Blanco made $1.2m last season and OPSed at .500. You're drastically undervaluing what backup catchers are paid. Backup catchers who OPS at .800 are a crown jewel of baseball; most teams can't find a starting catcher that OPSes at .700, much less .800.

Given Mauer's questionable ability to play catcher more than 100 games a season, Doumit is just about the best player the Twins could have picked up last offseason. He has a bat and is an adequate catcher if he's only behind the dish 50 times a year. The Twins couldn't have played the Doumit situation any better than they played it. Signed him to a one year deal and then extended him right before the deadline (and they said that if a deal couldn't be reached, they would have moved him).

I don't know what some of you expect from the Twins. They still need to field all nine positions and Doumit is dirt-cheap for his production level. He's a friggin' steal at $3.5m per year. Do you really expect fans to pay to watch Drew ****ing Butera (also known as the worst hitter in Major League Baseball) play 80 times a year? Doumit isn't preventing Parmelee from getting ABs. The Twins front office and management is preventing Parmelee from getting ABs. Instead of complaining about Doumit being on the team (a productive player at a necessary position playing for way less than he's worth), we should be asking why Span is still on the team because Denard, unlike Doumit, actually had value at last year's deadline. There are three players the team could trade to make room for Parmelee and all of them either make more money or carry much more value in trade than Ryan did last July and none of them double as a part-time catcher who OPSes around .800.[/QUOTE]

I think our understanding of players decline is different.


We already paid for his 800 OPS season. That was a different contract and has nothing to do with his 7 million.


We also differ on our assessment of his ability to defend as a catcher and therefore being able to start in the NL.

The shot at Butera was uncalled for. Butera has done nothing to deserve that shot. One can disagree with management choosing to put him on roster. One can be objective about his skill set without the shot. Using asterisks to avoid the administrator is classless.

#16 Danchat

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 06:35 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='jorgenswest']

They should have moved him at the deadline instead of the early commitment.

I care more about the twins investing in the future. Those second half at bats should have been invested in Parmelee's development.

His age, injury history, contract and inability to play adequately at any position make it difficult to get any value back right now.[/QUOTE]

Doumit's value doubled the moment he signed that extension. If the need should arise, the Twins will get more for him now that he's been extended through 2014. You're flat-out wrong about his value. He's an incredibly valuable piece that 2/3rds of teams would love to have on their roster. Once you factor in his $7m salary for two years, you could probably bump that number to 28-29 teams. Henry Blanco made $1.2m last season and OPSed at .500. You're drastically undervaluing what backup catchers are paid. Backup catchers who OPS at .800 are a crown jewel of baseball; most teams can't find a starting catcher that OPSes at .700, much less .800.

[/QUOTE]
You couldn't be more right about that.
I'll take Brett Myers, as long as we don't overpay him too much.
We're going to have a very underwhelming offseason, I predict. He could be the best guy we bring in.

#17 Physics Guy

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:06 PM

I'm fine with Myers, maybe at 2 years and no more than 9M. I could see one other pitcher (hoping Sanchez, expecting Marcum or Blanton) from the FA market and possibly a trade (Span or Willingham) for the third SP. Rotation would be Marcum, Myers, Diamond, Hendriks and player acquired for OF. Gibson starts in bullpen, much like the Braves did with Medlen. Sad part is I think it could end up being: Blanton, Myers, Diamond, Hendricks and Deduno. I REALLY hope Ryan has something up his sleeve.

#18 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:10 PM

I think our understanding of players decline is different.

We already paid for his 800 OPS season. That was a different contract and has nothing to do with his 7 million.

We also differ on our assessment of his ability to defend as a catcher and therefore being able to start in the NL.

The shot at Butera was uncalled for. Butera has done nothing to deserve that shot. One can disagree with management choosing to put him on roster. One can be objective about his skill set without the shot. Using asterisks to avoid the administrator is classless.


Oh, my understanding of player decline is just fine. Doumit is entering his age 32 season in 2013. As far as I know, he is not queued up to have both his legs amputated this offseason. He's easily worth $3.5m a year at a .750 OPS, much less the .830/.780 OPS he has posted in the past two seasons. He was a 1 WAR player this season. Getting a 1 WAR player for $3.5m is the way you build a competent roster. An average baseball win costs a team $7-8m. Getting that production across several positions (even though he plays none of them well) for $3.5m is a steal no matter if you play in the NL or the AL (notice that I continually referred to Doumit as a "backup" catcher). Doumit is a competent receiver, if slightly deficient in some areas. He won't kill you behind the dish a la Mike Piazza but he won't ever be considered good. I'd wager that if the Twins put him on the block right now, at least half the teams in the NL would be calling them, asking what they'd like in return. Again, Henry Blanco made $1.2m last year at age 40. He OPSed at .505. Catchers are always in demand. 32 year old backup catchers that OPS at .780 and make $3.5m a season are something almost every team in baseball would leap at the opportunity to acquire.

Butera is the worst hitter in MLB. That's all there is to it. He shouldn't sniff a Major League roster, much less be awarded 500 PA over two seasons. I don't care how good he is behind the dish; he's completely incompetent with the bat. As in "one of the worst players to acquire a full seasons' worth of ABs" bad.

#19 raindog

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:13 PM

Glad this turned into a heated Doumit debate.

I would be just fine with a Myers signing. The only reason the Astros moved him out of the rotation is to give their younger arms a shot and to increase his value at the trade dead line (not sure if logical).

Edited by raindog, 24 November 2012 - 07:38 PM.


#20 PseudoSABR

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:24 PM

Complaining about the Doumit contract seems not only a misappraisal but petty. That Doumit would have fetched anything worthwhile in a trade is ludicrous. Doumit's value at 3.5 mil is a nonbrainer for any team. For a team with the fragility of Mauer and Morneau, the value to the Twins is even more. C'mon man.

#21 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:51 PM

Brett Myers is ****ing garbage, if a team as ****ty as the Astros decided he no longer was a fit in the rotation thats all you need to know, he is a lifetime 4.24 ERA starting pitcher in the NL, which means at best he at one point who would been a 4.60 ERA pitcher in the AL, except the problem is he is regressing.

Would I bring him in on a minimum deal this year? Sure, but I sure as hell wouldn't count on this wife beaters ass to be an even short term solution to the rotation. Myers should be the 4th of 5th pitcher you sign this off-season to be honest.

#22 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:52 PM

Glad this turned into a heated Doumit debate.

I would be just fine with a Myers signing. The only reason the Astros moved him out of the rotation is to give their younger arms a shot and to increase his value at the trade dead line (not sure if logical).



Myers started exactly ZERO games last year. They moved him out the rotation because they realized he wasn't a good pitcher.

#23 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:54 PM

[quote name='Physics Guy']I'm fine with Myers, maybe at 2 years and no more than 9M. /QUOTE]
God no.

#24 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:55 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='mike wants wins']If this is the third best pitcher they get, sure.[/QUOTE]

I think peoples' expectations are far too high. The Twins are not going to get two pitchers better than Brett Myers and Brett Myers. They may get two pitchers better than Brett. They may get Brett and a pitcher better than him. But two pitchers better than him while also signing him to a short contract? Nope. That's a tall order when 29 other teams are fighting for those same pitchers in free agency.[/QUOTE]

Do you honestly believe Brett Myers commands anything more then close to a minimum one year deal?? I sure as hell hope if they sign Brett Myers they get two pitchers "better" then him.

#25 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 08:11 PM

Can we get rid of the **** on this site?

It is reasonable to project Brett Myers having a useful season in 2012. You can look at the Bill James projection on fangraphs. He is projected as a reliever, but his K/W and ERA are good. The problem is how many seasons of Brett Myers the Twins will buy. Buying beyond his age 32 season would be a mistake.

Below is data about how pitchers in the 2000s aged from age 31 to age 33.

http://twinsdaily.co...-Old-Set-Up-Man

The connection to Doumit has to do with signing guys longer term in their 30s.

I am working with data from baseball reference looking at 31 year old catchers from 2000-2010 corresponding to 33 year old catchers 2002-2012.

Thus far I have found that there were 86 catchers aged 31 and 61 at age 33. Twenty five did not play their age 33 season in the majors. The data was skewed with several part time catchers that were not good enough to keep playing until age 33 skewing the plate appearance data towards the 31 year olds. I then looked at only at 31 years olds who had significant playing time (>80 games) and matching their age 33 season. Their average plate appearance and OPS are below.

31 year olds: 422 PA .750 OPS
33 year olds: 296 PA .721 OPS

It makes sense for teams a few pieces away from 90 wins to take the risk that solid veterans like Doumit will decline slowly.

I don't think it makes sense for the Twins to commit to multiyear contracts for any veteran over 30.

#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 08:45 PM

I don't think it makes sense for the Twins to commit to multiyear contracts for any veteran over 30.


The Twins need a backup catcher. Doumit's value right now is higher than it was last June (I'd have been surprised if they could get even a C- prospect for him as a rental). He's not blocking anyone because, again, the Twins need a backup catcher and Butera is historically awful. He's not paid enough for it to significantly impact the roster. The Twins aren't prevented from signing any FAs worth mentioning because Ryan Doumit is on the roster.

I continue to fail to see the problem here.

#27 raindog

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 08:50 PM

Dave, I didn't say he started any games last year. The Astros knew he was going to be traded during the season, and thought he would have more value as a closer.

#28 Physics Guy

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 10:33 PM

Brett Myers
Age 29 Season: 223 IP, 180 K, 1.24 WHIP, 3.14 ERA
Age 30 Season: 216 IP, 160 K, 1.31 WHIP, 4.46 ERA

Going into his Age 32 season next year, I would gladly take what he did two years ago. Only Diamond outperformed that last year for the Twins. He's only three years removed from a season in which he finished 10th in the CYA voting. As for moving to the bullpen, I found this quote from a FanGraphs article:

"Long term, it will be more important for the Astros to sort out their starting rotation than their bullpen. In a strange twist, that’s why it makes sense to move a present-tense resource in Myers to the bullpen — because doing so will help them figure out what they have among their bevy of mediocre pitching prospects. If one of them steps to the fore and proves he’s a Major League starter this year, the team will have gotten what they wanted from moving Myers to the pen."

#29 BHtwins

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Posted 24 November 2012 - 11:45 PM

Yes, since there is such a long history of averagish NL pitchers moving to the AL with great success. Especially after their middle-aged seasons....oh wait....

His babip was 40 points lower then his career average in a small sample in Chicago, which is probably gotten the Twins FO drooling. This is an absolute yawner with no real impact if it happens.

#30 notoriousgod71

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 01:03 AM

Ryan must not be aware of Myers' personal history. We don't take people who aren't model citizens.