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Twins will seek 'affordable pitchers'

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#1 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 01:19 PM

TRyan said this on 1500ESPN this morning but will 'monitor the big names'. No surprise here, so who are the affordable pitchers that the Twins type thinking will go after.

Pitt's FA Kevin Correia WILL be one they will at least pursue
32 yr old RH made 3m last yr
Over last 4 yrs (w/SD & Pitt each 2yrs)
46W (Twins value the old style stats) 43L 120gms 113starts
668IP (ave 168) 697hits 4.51 NL ERA 423k(5.7/9) 213bb(2.9/9) 90.5mph FB... -.0.7 3 yr WAR
one all star appearance in 2011
Holds runners well 31/53 successful (41.5% caught stealing)
Twins type of guy......yaaaaayyyyy!!!!!
Who else

laugh all ya want but they will also target Kevin Millwood as this yrs Marquis, Ortiz, Hernandez, Ponson type.
The soon to be 38yr old played for a million last yr in SEA.
28 starts in SEA in 12'
6W 12L 161IP 168hits 4.25ERA 107K (6k/9) 56bb (3.1bb/9) 1.39whip
His splits were even outside of Safeco.....4.34ERA on road
His 90.2mph fastaball is right at his 90.7 career mark.
He will definately help sell some season tix but will be a guy they target

DId say the 'bullpen needs too add some people too', so at least they have noticed that also!! Hello resigning Matt Capps

Edited by greengoblinrulz, 14 October 2012 - 01:47 PM.


#2 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 02:38 PM

My other 'sleeper' pitcher who MN will look at is another PITT hurler who was released, Erik Bedard.
On the surface, he didnt seem to have that bad a year
24starts 7W 14L 5.01ERA 125.2IP 129hits (.263BAA) 118K (8.5k/9) 56bb (4bb/9)

He was a victim of some horrible luck & only a few bad games as I looked at his game logs.
April
1W 4L in 5 starts 2.48ERA (no more than 2ER in any start...PITT scored 3runs in 4 losses) 29IP 29hits 26k 12bb
May
2W 1L in 5 starts 3.91ERA (one start was 1IP due to rain delay) 23IP 19h 25k 10bb
June
1W 3L in 5 starts 6.58ERA (one start 6/14 7ER in 3.1IP....4.77ERA in other 4) 26IP 30h 21K 12bb
July
1W 4L in 5 starts 6.49ERA (8er in 4.1IP in last start of month....4.50ERA in other 4) 26.1IP 29h 28k 13bb
AUG
2W 2L in 4 starts 5.91ERA (first 2 starts 12IP 7h 3er 11K 4bb....last 2 9.1IP 15h 11er 7k 5bb)

20 starts 108.2IP 99h 44er 3.64ERA 103K 47bb
4 bad starts 17IP 30h 26er 13.76ERA 15k 9bb

His 89.4mph fastball was down from 11's 90.8 but he kept up a great K rate with his curveball
He made 4.5m last yr but after bein released Aug 28, could be a nice bargain which is what Terry Ryan is looking for

#3 Shane Wahl

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 02:54 PM

Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.

#4 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 03:02 PM

Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.

Affordable from Terry Ryan (at least to me....based on the teams history) means players who'll play for a 1 year deal, maybe 2 under the right circumstances
Marcum/Jackson are gonna want a 3 yr deal minumum.....Twins have NEVER signed a FA pitcher with that many years & have NEVER traded for a pitcher with that many years remaining (not counting pre-FA pitchers).
They are the cheapest team in baseball that has a 90m+ payroll.....this will continue this year.
As good as FA went last offseason, nobody got a big deal. They went cheap, but it worked out for the most part

#5 TheLeviathan

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 03:25 PM

Affordable, to me, means they pay what they feel they're worth. Which is bad news if you think they'll sign a top-end pitcher - they always get overpayed.

#6 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 05:49 PM

I don't read much into soundbites, especially when they're basically non-statements like this.

To the extent he's saying anything here, it's only that he's not going to pay ace money for a #3 starter.

#7 beckmt

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 06:21 PM

Twins will not overpay for pitching. That is why they will end up trading if the deal is right. Problem is going to be everyone is going to overvalue their major league ready pitching, because pitching is a hard item to find. Depends on whether the Twins can find trade partners early, because most of the pitching will be bought in the first two weeks of FA action and many big market teams will be looking.TR has his work cut out for him

#8 John Bonnes

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 06:47 PM

The point that Ryan likely only wants 1-year deals is a good one. That seems to be his MO. Although, given how depleted the organization is with pitching, it isn't clear that a multi-year deal would be the worst idea.

I think in the GM Handbook, we have Marcum likely accepting a one-year deal. His health is a big question mark, so I could see him seeking out a make good deal. It might be expensive, but I can't see anyone ponying up really big bucks for him in a multi-year deal this year.

#9 old nurse

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 07:18 PM

I the GM Handbook.


Ah yes, there is where we will find the many answers for who are affordable pitchers

#10 Thrylos

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 07:23 PM

penny pinching might:

- make this an 85 loss team
- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...
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#11 SpantheMan

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 10:35 PM

Another reason the twins probably won't sign any big money FA's: Josh Willingham was the biggest FA contract they ever inked. (obviously not including extending their own).

#12 SpantheMan

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 10:36 PM

My other 'sleeper' pitcher who MN will look at is another PITT hurler who was released, Erik Bedard.
On the surface, he didnt seem to have that bad a year
24starts 7W 14L 5.01ERA 125.2IP 129hits (.263BAA) 118K (8.5k/9) 56bb (4bb/9)

He was a victim of some horrible luck & only a few bad games as I looked at his game logs.
April
1W 4L in 5 starts 2.48ERA (no more than 2ER in any start...PITT scored 3runs in 4 losses) 29IP 29hits 26k 12bb
May
2W 1L in 5 starts 3.91ERA (one start was 1IP due to rain delay) 23IP 19h 25k 10bb
June
1W 3L in 5 starts 6.58ERA (one start 6/14 7ER in 3.1IP....4.77ERA in other 4) 26IP 30h 21K 12bb
July
1W 4L in 5 starts 6.49ERA (8er in 4.1IP in last start of month....4.50ERA in other 4) 26.1IP 29h 28k 13bb
AUG
2W 2L in 4 starts 5.91ERA (first 2 starts 12IP 7h 3er 11K 4bb....last 2 9.1IP 15h 11er 7k 5bb)

20 starts 108.2IP 99h 44er 3.64ERA 103K 47bb
4 bad starts 17IP 30h 26er 13.76ERA 15k 9bb

His 89.4mph fastball was down from 11's 90.8 but he kept up a great K rate with his curveball
He made 4.5m last yr but after bein released Aug 28, could be a nice bargain which is what Terry Ryan is looking for


Looks like a good pitcher to target but not necessarily a twins type pitcher. Any reason you think the twins will go after him or are you just saying they should?

#13 kab21

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 11:04 PM

penny pinching might:

- make this an 85 loss team
- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...


penny pinching might make this a 100 loss team.
spending like a crazy man might make this an 85 loss team

#14 Shane Wahl

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 11:48 PM

The point that Ryan likely only wants 1-year deals is a good one. That seems to be his MO. Although, given how depleted the organization is with pitching, it isn't clear that a multi-year deal would be the worst idea.

I think in the GM Handbook, we have Marcum likely accepting a one-year deal. His health is a big question mark, so I could see him seeking out a make good deal. It might be expensive, but I can't see anyone ponying up really big bucks for him in a multi-year deal this year.



That's strange, because he was back at the end of the year and was good again. That would be a BIG improvement if it was a one-year deal.

#15 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 06:31 AM

Can we stop using Ryan's track record as an indicator of future moves? The dude had a $40m or lower payroll for many of those years. The early 2000s Metrodome Twins have very, very little to do with the 2013 Target Field Twins.

Ryan didn't have much money last season but he used it pretty smartly to pick up several players that helped the team enormously. There is no reason to expect him to do anything different this offseason when he has more money to play with and acquire players that aren't awful.

#16 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 07:30 AM

They lost over 90 games, not sure who helped the team tremendously. Ryan is cheap, there is no evidence to the contrary. Until he actually does something different, I see no reason to expect something different.

#17 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 07:41 AM

They lost over 90 games, not sure who helped the team tremendously. Ryan is cheap, there is no evidence to the contrary. Until he actually does something different, I see no reason to expect something different.


Yes, Ryan is cheap.

But there is a difference between "scraping the bottom of the barrel" and "cheap". Cheap is fine, scraping the barrel is not. Ryan spent his last term as GM scraping the barrel because he had no other choice. Last season, he picked up several guys who were reasonably priced (not necessarily cheap but not expensive either) and most of them worked out very well for the team. Now that he has more money to spend, why do so many think he'll balk at spending a few dollars to pick up a pitcher that isn't awful? If he was open to signing Willingham last offseason, there is no reason to think he won't do the same for a decent pitcher.

#18 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 08:01 AM

Jason Marquis...... Which 2 above average starting pitchers will come here for as little money as Willingham made?

#19 Craig in MN

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 08:44 AM

Another reason the twins probably won't sign any big money FA's: Josh Willingham was the biggest FA contract they ever inked. (obviously not including extending their own).


That is a key point, but it could be a key point for each side. The obvious point is that the Twins don't usually spend much money. The less obvious point is that last year, Terry Ryan was willing to go out of his previous comfort zone to fill a hole that needed filling. He's not going to go nuts, but he knows he needs pitching and he now has a record of going a little further than before (and with great results). I'd be a little surprised if Ryan signed a pitcher to a 3 year, $21-30 million deal, but I wouldn't be shocked.

That said, I expect Ryan will be hoping to sign guys to one year deals with an option/buyout for the next year, or maybe a 2 year deal for the right guy. It's not like the Twins lack of pitching depth is going to magically solve itself in 2014, and odds are the Twins aren't going to be able stockpile enough arms to be favorites in 2013 anyway. If you find a guy you like, try to get him to stick around a few years.

There are a few high-potential guys out there with some question marks that you could probably get on a one year deal with an option. Baker is the obvious one. Brandon McCarthy is a good starter if he's healthy, but isn't going to get a big guarantee. Ervin Santana had enough struggles that the Angels aren't even thinking about picking up his $12 million option. He's still a very good pitcher, and might want a one year deal to re-establish himself (in spacious Target Field). Jorge De La Rosa, Marcum, and a few other guys fit the bill too.

They aren't going to build a rock solid rotation that way, but they'll give themselves a chance. I'd absolutely expect Ryan to have enough money to spend that he's not going to just give out three $3-5 million deals to uninspiring starters and see what happens.

#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 08:52 AM

Jason Marquis...... Which 2 above average starting pitchers will come here for as little money as Willingham made?


They probably won't. Ryan got a good deal on Willingham. Why are you so adamant that he won't pay market value for a pitcher as he did for Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll last season? Add $6m over three years to Willingham's deal and you're suddenly in the market for a mid-range pitcher (aka. roughly the money Pavano made last season). Ryan showed that he's willing to go after a guy if he thinks the team will get value from the player. He did it last season and there's no reason to think he won't do it again because he has more money this offseason... well, he should have more, anyway.

The only basis you have to assume that Ryan will only pursue $3m pitchers is that he often did so when the Twins' payroll was half what it is today. It's not solid ground on which to stand, as the circumstances are vastly different today than they were in 2004.

#21 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 10:18 AM

Until Ryan signs a FA pitcher to a 2yr deal..or more..he's never done it.
Prove us cynics wrong...Id love to eat crow on this but time will tell

#22 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 10:59 AM

But his budget is not twice as big, more than 40 million is in three players. That leaves only 50 million for the rest of the team. That us the great fallacy in comparing payroll with Oakland, for instance. Also, unlike Oakland, he seems unwilling to sell high on veterans right now. I do not understand the strategy. BTW, I hope you are right and I am wrong.

#23 Boom Boom

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 11:03 AM

Jason Marquis...... Which 2 above average starting pitchers will come here for as little money as Willingham made?


They probably won't. Ryan got a good deal on Willingham. Why are you so adamant that he won't pay market value for a pitcher as he did for Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll last season? Add $6m over three years to Willingham's deal and you're suddenly in the market for a mid-range pitcher (aka. roughly the money Pavano made last season). Ryan showed that he's willing to go after a guy if he thinks the team will get value from the player. He did it last season and there's no reason to think he won't do it again because he has more money this offseason... well, he should have more, anyway.

The only basis you have to assume that Ryan will only pursue $3m pitchers is that he often did so when the Twins' payroll was half what it is today. It's not solid ground on which to stand, as the circumstances are vastly different today than they were in 2004.


He's got to do better than Marquis. I think most Twins fans realized the rotation would be a weakness, and Ryan took the same approach to improving it as he did when the Twins were in the Dome - find a cheap, older veteran on a 1-year deal.

#24 tmerrickkeller

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 12:16 PM

I think there's truth in all that everyone here is saying: What he should do is get a couple of mid-priced free agent starters (Marcum, Blanton) and leave a little money for additional acquisitions. What he will do is wait for the free agent market to set rates for the top-line starters and then wait to see who is left out, and then pick up one or two of those guys for 1-year, or 1-year-plus-option deals, making sound dollar decisions.

He will do this between mid-December and late January, because he doesn't want to wait until spring and have some teams lose a valuable piece (thereby raising the price of the remaining FA starters again). He wants those guys to think they'll be left in the cold and then start the negotiations.

He should look to trade one of the assets (Morneau, Span, minor league outfielder) for additional help, if the market doesn't bring us a couple of starters and the shot at a middle infielder. What he will do is save those tradeable assets and a little room in the budget and treat fans as the team always has - if you show up and if we're playing well, we'll spend a little more money or make a trade to improve the team. If the fans don't show up and we're not playing well, we'll sell off what we can for less than they are worth and try the same formula again next year.

Edited by tmerrickkeller, 15 October 2012 - 12:18 PM.
wrong word


#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 12:44 PM

He's got to do better than Marquis. I think most Twins fans realized the rotation would be a weakness, and Ryan took the same approach to improving it as he did when the Twins were in the Dome - find a cheap, older veteran on a 1-year deal.


He only took the "old" approach after he had spent most of his money on Willingham and Doumit. I wasn't a fan of the Marquis signing but it's not as if he had a ton of money left over to go get a decent pitcher after spending $10m on those two players. This season should be different, as almost all of the front office's efforts will be focused on shoring up the rotation.

#26 Willihammer

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 12:45 PM

He will do this between mid-December and late January, because he doesn't want to wait until spring and have some teams lose a valuable piece (thereby raising the price of the remaining FA starters again). He wants those guys to think they'll be left in the cold and then start the negotiations.

He should look to trade one of the assets (Morneau, Span, minor league outfielder) for additional help, if the market doesn't bring us a couple of starters and the shot at a middle infielder. What he will do is save those tradeable assets and a little room in the budget and treat fans as the team always has - if you show up and if we're playing well, we'll spend a little more money or make a trade to improve the team. If the fans don't show up and we're not playing well, we'll sell off what we can for less than they are worth and try the same formula again next year.


Well I have already reserved my 20 game season ticket for 2013, but I am the Twins number one fan. If the FO wants to hook your 7/10er on a season package, they should consider fronting cash early and often in the offseason rather than hoping there are enough leftovers to pick up in January to keep the team from falling out of contention in the opening weeks.

#27 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 12:47 PM

Do not sign Capps and Marquis, and you have money. And, they could have spent more money, but chose not to. It is all about choices.

Edited by mike wants wins, 15 October 2012 - 12:53 PM.


#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 12:55 PM

Do not sign Capps and Marquis, and you have money. And, they could have spent more money, but chose not to. It is all about choices.


Let's not blur the issues. The Pohlads are responsible for the budget. If you have issues with the budget, that's another argument entirely. JR has nothing to do with it (or, perhaps more accurately, he has VERY LITTLE to do with it).

Going into the season, the Twins looked to have a serviceable rotation. Marquis looked like he'd be pretty pedestrian but would post somewhere around a 90 ERA+. Baker looked great in 2011. Pavano looked to be meh but not terrible.

That's 60% of the rotation that completely and utterly collapsed. It was my belief that the rotation should have been a bigger priority last offseason but given the amount of holes in the 2011 squad, it's damned hard to fault JR for prioritizing the offense over the pitching staff.

#29 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 01:03 PM

Given the Orioles success, and their deep pitching, could the Twins get Gausman for Span and random minor league pitcher? The Orioles should want that contract and position.

#30 Boom Boom

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 01:07 PM


He's got to do better than Marquis. I think most Twins fans realized the rotation would be a weakness, and Ryan took the same approach to improving it as he did when the Twins were in the Dome - find a cheap, older veteran on a 1-year deal.


He only took the "old" approach after he had spent most of his money on Willingham and Doumit. I wasn't a fan of the Marquis signing but it's not as if he had a ton of money left over to go get a decent pitcher after spending $10m on those two players. This season should be different, as almost all of the front office's efforts will be focused on shoring up the rotation.


I guess we'll have to see just how much the Twins' previous toe-dips into the FA starter pool were budget-driven and how much they were philosophy-driven.

Until he proves me otherwise, my suspicion is that TR is petrified of inking another Joe Mays deal, no matter how much more money he has to spend.