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#1 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 07:12 AM

Has been mentioned that the Marlins will most likely trade him this off-season and the Twins would be interested. He is owed 13.75 million this year and is a free agent after the season (would be a Type A most likely)

I think he is worth trying to get assuming we don't have to give up one of Hicks, Sano, Arcia, Gibson or Rosario. Wonder if they would be interested in Ben Revere+prospects

Johnson in the rotation instantly gives the team an ace, and if they could sign another decent FA or even Scott Baker you could be looking at a rotation of:
Johnson, Baker, Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks.

Not to shabby.

#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 07:41 AM

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.

#3 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:22 AM

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.


Well obviously I'd prefer Shields, but the asking price for Shields is going to be significantly higher then Johnson. The nice thing about Johnson is you could get him without having to give up two of your top prospects, and you also would have a whole year to work out an extension with him. Maybe he would be willing to do a tiny hometown discount?

Trade for him and offer him a 4 year 70 million dollar extension?

It would be a good time to "buy" on Johnson as his value isn't as high as it was pre injury, but the guy has legit ace stuff. I'd rather give up a couple prospects or players and give him 70 million rather then compete in free agency for an "ace" like Grienke or whatnot.

#4 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:25 AM

If he's open to an extension, I'd be far more open to the acquisition. I completely forgot that he's a Minnesota native.

#5 James

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:57 AM

I like the idea if he's open to an extension. Even though 2012 was a down year for him, his numbers were still pretty good. It's probably as close to buying low as you can get for a guy like him.

I didn't have time to type out all his numbers, but everyone here should know how to get to baseball reference anyway.
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#6 Boom Boom

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:58 AM

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.


It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.

#7 Winston Smith

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:59 AM

Can't really think he'd be cheap probably at least 2 of our top 10 prospects or more. Giving up multiple top prospects with the chance he walks after the season is not a typical TR type deal.
I think he moved away when he was very young but he could give us a discount like Mauer did!
I still think a deal centered around Span and Shields makes the most sense. Fills a need for them he is from Tampa and it saves them a bunch of money.
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#8 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:06 AM

I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.


It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.


It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.

#9 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:22 AM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='Boom Boom'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.[/QUOTE]

It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.[/QUOTE]

It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.[/QUOTE]
It would probably take Span, and maybe a couple throw-in pitchers that the Rays will somehow be able to make more productive (like Swarzak and Duensing?). If they ask for Span and a top prospect, then gods no. Yeah, a healthy Scott Baker who strikes out those half a batter more in "the toughest division in the AL."

#10 Boom Boom

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:32 AM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='Boom Boom'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.[/QUOTE]

It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.[/QUOTE]

It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.[/QUOTE]


So, he's Scott Baker, except significantly better than Scott Baker?

Do you think other teams would be willing to give up more than Span to get Shields? Because if they would, there's no reason for the Rays to trade Shields for Span and maybe a throw-in.

Shields has an option on his contract for $12 million in 2014, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that whichever team has him at that point would gladly pick that option up. Span likely won't ever earn more than $10 million in a season. Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.

#11 mike wants wins

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:52 AM

I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.

#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:54 AM

So, he's Scott Baker, except significantly better than Scott Baker?

Do you think other teams would be willing to give up more than Span to get Shields? Because if they would, there's no reason for the Rays to trade Shields for Span and maybe a throw-in.

Shields has an option on his contract for $12 million in 2014, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that whichever team has him at that point would gladly pick that option up. Span likely won't ever earn more than $10 million in a season. Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.


That's just it... He's not better than Baker. Look at their ERA+, WHIP, BB/9, K/9, etc. They're basically the same pitcher with a little variance here and there. Shields is healthier. That's the difference. It's a pretty big difference but that's why Baker is going to get ~$3m this season while Shields is going to get over $20m over the next two.

Like I said, the Rays would get three years of Span for the same money as two years of Shields. both have an option for their last season. Is Shields so much more valuable than Span that he's worth significantly more than that three-for-two-years swap? I don't think so and the numbers agree with me.

#13 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:55 AM

The goal this offseason has to be to improve the starting rotation. If we can add a Shields or Josh Johnson type pitcher without selling absoluting everything, then we have to do it. If we have to give up Span to get him then so be it. I honestly think Hicks might be ready to take over in CF by mid season next year. Revere could handle things in CF until then.

If we could get Shields or Johnson and then add someone like Edwin Jackson, we would be looking pretty decent SP-wise. I'm guessing Morneau could be traded this offseason if the Twins want to free up some payroll for SP.

#14 Winston Smith

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:55 AM

No reason to compare him to Baker. Baker is coming off TJ surgery, no way to tell if he will be any good after that, some are some aren't. He likely won't be back (starting) until May or June and he isn't under contract unless you pick up the option.
Baker is a non factor until he proves he can pitch again and he is signed.
Shields would likely be a top 5 starter in the Central. Besides Verlander and Sales who is better?
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#15 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:57 AM

No reason to compare him to Baker. Baker is coming off TJ surgery, no way to tell if he will be any good after that, some are some aren't. He likely won't be back (starting) until May or June and he isn't under contract unless you pick up the option.
Baker is a non factor until he proves he can pitch again and he is signed.
Shields would likely be a top 5 starter in the Central. Besides Verlander and Sales who is better?


My point with the Baker comp is not to compare 2012 Baker versus 2012 Shields. It's to compare how both pitchers have actually performed over the course of their careers. People seem to take the attitude that Shields is a number one pitcher but often say Baker is nothing more than a number three. Reality doesn't jibe with that evaluation. Both pitchers (when healthy) are nearly identical. And they both have ceilings somewhere in the "very good number two pitcher" range with the average year coming in at "decent number two pitcher".

Off the top of my head, I'd take Scherzer before Shields, no question.

#16 old nurse

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:10 AM

[quote name='Boom Boom'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='Boom Boom'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.[/QUOTE]

It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.[/QUOTE]


It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.[/QUOTE]


So, he's Scott Baker, except significantly better than Scott Baker?

Do you think other teams would be willing to give up more than Span to get Shields? Because if they would, there's no reason for the Rays to trade Shields for Span and maybe a throw-in.

Shields has an option on his contract for $12 million in 2014, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that whichever team has him at that point would gladly pick that option up. Span likely won't ever earn more than $10 million in a season. Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.[/QUOTE]


Considering Tampa's dreadful offense, if they were not going to trade pitching to make a playoff run they were so close to last season, why would they now? What they value Shields as would be a high value that Brock would disagree with. More than likely what the Rays want, the Twins did not have then. It would be more like Arcia and Benson with a good pitching prospect then a Span. Look at their trading history.
A decent prospect with a few low A guys could get you a Johnson. I do not know if the Twins would do that kind of trade.

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:26 AM

[quote name='J-Dog Dungan'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='Boom Boom'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.[/QUOTE]

It's going to take more than Span to get Shields.[/QUOTE]

It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.[/QUOTE]
It would probably take Span, and maybe a couple throw-in pitchers that the Rays will somehow be able to make more productive (like Swarzak and Duensing?). If they ask for Span and a top prospect, then gods no. Yeah, a healthy Scott Baker who strikes out those half a batter more in "the toughest division in the AL."[/QUOTE]
Swarzak and Duensing have zero trade value. It would take Span+ a top prospect at least. Top of rotation starters who have more than one year left cost an arm and a leg. (unless you are the Twins and give up Garza for Delmon)

#18 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:27 AM


So, he's Scott Baker, except significantly better than Scott Baker?

Do you think other teams would be willing to give up more than Span to get Shields? Because if they would, there's no reason for the Rays to trade Shields for Span and maybe a throw-in.

Shields has an option on his contract for $12 million in 2014, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that whichever team has him at that point would gladly pick that option up. Span likely won't ever earn more than $10 million in a season. Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.


That's just it... He's not better than Baker. Look at their ERA+, WHIP, BB/9, K/9, etc. They're basically the same pitcher with a little variance here and there. Shields is healthier. That's the difference. It's a pretty big difference but that's why Baker is going to get ~$3m this season while Shields is going to get over $20m over the next two.

Like I said, the Rays would get three years of Span for the same money as two years of Shields. both have an option for their last season. Is Shields so much more valuable than Span that he's worth significantly more than that three-for-two-years swap? I don't think so and the numbers agree with me.

Shields also pitches against the AL East, Baker pitched against the AL Central. Huge difference.

#19 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:29 AM

Can't really think he'd be cheap probably at least 2 of our top 10 prospects or more. Giving up multiple top prospects with the chance he walks after the season is not a typical TR type deal.
I think he moved away when he was very young but he could give us a discount like Mauer did!
I still think a deal centered around Span and Shields makes the most sense. Fills a need for them he is from Tampa and it saves them a bunch of money.

I would give up two of our top 10 prospects for him. (No Hicks, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, Gibson) Rosario would be tough to part with, but would gladly give him up for a legitimate Ace.

#20 Nick Nelson

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:32 AM

People seem to take the attitude that Shields is a number one pitcher but often say Baker is nothing more than a number three. Reality doesn't jibe with that evaluation. Both pitchers (when healthy) are nearly identical.

Here's the thing: his ability to stay healthy is what MAKES Shields a borderline No. 1. The guy hasn't missed a start in six years. Teams value that kind of reliability very highly. You may be right that he's not likely to be an upper-echelon ace in terms of production (though over the last two years he basically has been) but I suspect he's exactly what the Twins are looking for in a guy who could lead their unstable rotation.

#21 mk

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:39 AM

I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.


If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready.

#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:43 AM

People seem to take the attitude that Shields is a number one pitcher but often say Baker is nothing more than a number three. Reality doesn't jibe with that evaluation. Both pitchers (when healthy) are nearly identical.

Here's the thing: his ability to stay healthy is what MAKES Shields a borderline No. 1. The guy hasn't missed a start in six years. Teams value that kind of reliability very highly. You may be right that he's not likely to be an upper-echelon ace in terms of production (though over the last two years he basically has been) but I suspect he's exactly what the Twins are looking for in a guy who could lead their unstable rotation.


He was an upper echelon guy in 2011. This season, he's a decent pitcher, nothing more. In 2010, he was pretty bad. The only years he's been way above average are 2008 and 2011. His durability is certainly an asset and I noted that in an earlier post but if we're talking about pure production, he's not an ace and the Twins shouldn't be considering giving up too many assets to get the guy. If the Rays are willing to talk reasonably about a trade, I'm all for it but the Span+Parmelee+Prospect is too much for a guy who probably won't pitch much better than his $11m contract pays him.

If the Twins are going to pay a guy $11m a year for two years, why shouldn't they simply go get an Edwin Jackson for that kind of money and keep Span & Co? It's a bad baseball decision to give up that much for a guy who is paid that much when there are similar FA options out there for the same kind of money.

#23 Boom Boom

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 11:22 AM

I don't think we're really disagreeing necessarily. I just think the Rays could get a better offer for Shields than Span.

The Rays are constantly looking to unload payroll and trading Shields for Span doesn't really accomplish that. I think they'd be more likely to take Hicks for Shields straight up than Span for Shields.

Also, I don't think Ben Revere has much trade value at all.

#24 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 11:26 AM

I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.


If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready.


Really? I can see maybe Span and a mid level prospect for Shields. But Revere for Johnson? First of all the Marlins need pitching just as bad as we do. Why would they give up their ACE? Seems like a lot of people on here are under the belief that when you throw a quarter in a wishing well their dreams will come true. Well hey everyone....WE ARE NOT GETTING JOSH JOHNSON. Shields is a possibility but i cant see that either. they have Desmond Jennings groomed for center field, Zobrist who can play left or right, and Matt Joyce as well.

#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 11:30 AM

Also, I don't think Ben Revere has much trade value at all.


Agreed. I think his value is almost nothing at this point. If he had continued with a .300+ avg and .340 OBP, his value would be quite a bit higher but he tailed off significantly at the end of the season (as some of us predicted he would).

#26 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 11:54 AM

[quote name='AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS'][quote name='mk'][quote name='mike wants wins']I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.[/QUOTE]

If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready.[/QUOTE]

Really? I can see maybe Span and a mid level prospect for Shields. But Revere for Johnson? First of all the Marlins need pitching just as bad as we do. Why would they give up their ACE? Seems like a lot of people on here are under the belief that when you throw a quarter in a wishing well their dreams will come true. Well hey everyone....WE ARE NOT GETTING JOSH JOHNSON. Shields is a possibility but i cant see that either. they have Desmond Jennings groomed for center field, Zobrist who can play left or right, and Matt Joyce as well.[/QUOTE]

They (the Marlins) might need pitching as bad as we do, but if they see a chance to improve their team (ala Johan Santana except actually getting valued prospects), then 8.5/10 you take the deal. If we give them (the Rays) Span, they can put Jennings on the bench, where his stats really say he should belong if a Denard Span came along, not to mention the defensive stability going from B.J. Upton to a guy like Span.

#27 Willihammer

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 12:00 PM

The first challenge is trying to understand the Marlins' motives. I dont' follow the Marlins closely but from here it looks like their owner(s) are awfully impulsive and may be less than hardcore baseball fans. Who's to say they wouldn't deal a Johnson or Buehrle just as a salary dump?

#28 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 12:04 PM

[quote name='J-Dog Dungan'][quote name='AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS'][quote name='mk'][quote name='mike wants wins']I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.[/QUOTE]

If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready.[/QUOTE]

Really? I can see maybe Span and a mid level prospect for Shields. But Revere for Johnson? First of all the Marlins need pitching just as bad as we do. Why would they give up their ACE? Seems like a lot of people on here are under the belief that when you throw a quarter in a wishing well their dreams will come true. Well hey everyone....WE ARE NOT GETTING JOSH JOHNSON. Shields is a possibility but i cant see that either. they have Desmond Jennings groomed for center field, Zobrist who can play left or right, and Matt Joyce as well.[/QUOTE]

They (the Marlins) might need pitching as bad as we do, but if they see a chance to improve their team (ala Johan Santana except actually getting valued prospects), then 8.5/10 you take the deal. If we give them (the Rays) Span, they can put Jennings on the bench, where his stats really say he should belong if a Denard Span came along, not to mention the defensive stability going from B.J. Upton to a guy like Span.[/QUOTE]

How do you improve your team by trading your ACE for Ben Revere? That doesnt make to much sense. Maybe they would take a trade Such as Revere and Arcia and another mid level prospect for Josh Johnson. Dont get me wrong I like Revere, but there is no way the Marlins sell low on Johnson, there team will not be improved by moving their ACE for a 3rd/4th OF. So one bad year from Jennings you think the Rays will give up on him? I dont believe that is so. Just last year he was regarded as a top prospect in the game.

#29 mike wants wins

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 12:16 PM

The Marlins are not building for next year. They have already indicated they will be cutting payroll probably. I think Johnson will be traded to someone.

#30 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 12:19 PM

The Marlins are not building for next year. They have already indicated they will be cutting payroll probably. I think Johnson will be traded to someone.


This i do agree with. Just wont be with the Twins.