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#1 Parker Hageman

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 07:04 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...82-Did-you-know

#2 JB_Iowa

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 09:30 AM

Parker, what do you make of the increase in Mauer's strike-out rate?

I thought yesterday that it was both SO and BB but the walks are probably within a statistical norm given the number of PA.

But 88 strikeouts in 641 PA is 13.7%. Higher than in any of his other seasons by at least 2% (and more than some others).

Did you see anything that leads you to any conclusions as to why this happened?

Or is it simply something as simple as Umpires no longer giving him the benefit of the doubt?

#3 Parker Hageman

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 09:36 AM

There more that goes in but I would connect it to his low swing rate. He struck out looking in 25% of his strikeouts - his highest rate in his last five years. I'd have to dig deeper in to his two-strike pitch breakdown to see if pitchers are doing anything different in their approach in those circumstances.

#4 JB_Iowa

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 09:53 AM

Thanks.

#5 joelindell

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 11:48 AM

His strikeout rate went up by 2.3%, but his walk rate went up 4.4%. In other words, if he had played 147 games last season, he would have finished with 57 walks and 68 strikeouts. This year, in 147 games, he had 90 walks and 88 strikeouts. He took more pitches and he got 33 additional walks and struck out 20 more times. This helped raise his OBP to a major league best .416 (from .360 in 2011).

#6 JB_Iowa

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 12:41 PM

I was looking at this from an historical perspective not just 2011 to 2012 -- and only looked at 2005-2012 ignoring his partial season in 2004.

In comparing BB/PA in 2012, Mauer walked 90 times in 641 appearances -- 14% of the time. This was his highest walk rate ever but in 2008, he walked 13.27% of the time so I didn't think that the increase this year was out of line statistically.

But on SO/PA, Mauer struck out 88 times in 641 appearances or 13.7% of the time. Prior to this, he averaged SOs in 9.9% of appearances with the highest rate prior to this year being 11.55% in 2005 followed by 11.41% in 2011. (His average SO rate is lower than it would be if you took the mean, I think, because he had incredibly low SO rates in 2006 & 2008 -- about 8%).

So I still see the jump in SO to be more significant than the increase in walks. Yes the walks are somewhat higher than in previous seasons but the increase isn't as significant as the increase in his SO rate.

Also, 2011 really was an anomoly for him because his SO rate was significantly higher than his walk rate -- the only year in which that happened. He turned that around in 2012 but his SO rate this year (13.7%) is basically 18% higher than his prior highest SO rate (11.6%).

That's why I wondered what Parker saw happening here.

#7 mgraves

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 01:01 PM

I am a Joe Mauer fan, but I find his ISO to be terrifyingly low (.127). It recovered from last year, but is still below his career average (.145). I had thought he could wind up (if moved to 1B) being an overpaid Mark Grace (but with intangibles, e.g. ticket and jersey sales, not disturbingly so), but Mark Grace had a lower K rate and a career ISO greater than Mauer's ISOs the last two years (.139, virtually equivalent to Mauer's 2010 of .141).

What any of this means, I am unsure, but the extent to which a C/1B can sustain a BABIP of .345 is doubtful. Mauer doesn't really have any easy comparisons, so trying to guess at a career trend line is a mostly useless exercise. I am, however, concerned about the increased K rate, decreased ISO, and Spanian GB rate.

#8 h2oface

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 03:19 PM

fun, informative, and at times funny piece. thanks much.