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Dan Haren Likely to Join Starting Pitching Free Agent Class

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 09:56 AM

Nick just found this tidbit from Alden Gonzalez, the Angels beat writer:

http://aldengonzalez...of-the-day-925/

"So, I expect the Angels to decline their team options on Santana ($13 million) and Haren ($15.5 million) during the exclusive negotiating window and go hard after Greinke (six years, $125 million is the price tag many have associated with him)."


That's one more pretty big name on the market. Even after a pretty mediocre year in which he had back problems, the 32-year-old is going to get a multi-year deal if he wants it. That's another $20M guy on the market to push names down to the Twins level.

I would LOVE to see his offers dip to the point where the Twins would consider him.

#2 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 10:04 AM

Twins dont offer multi yr deals to pitchers tho.
Lots of people think its the money offerred, but if a pitcher will take a 1 or 2 yr deal...then Terry Ryan will be interested. 3 yr deal....Twins are out. 4 yr deal, wont even negotiate.
What kind of deal wil Dan Haren, at 32, be interested in?? His velocity was down a lot this yr (88.5 ave vs career 90.9) but I have always been a big fan of his. Hopefully MN will contact him.

#3 Willihammer

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 10:35 AM

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts. Even with LAA out, I have to think one of Bos/NYY/TX will pursue

#4 Winston Smith

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 10:38 AM

It seems like he is hurt a lot but he has really been very good getting over 30 starts a year 8 years running with 28 this year. He would fit the Twins mold of pitcher. If you give Pavano 16 for 2 yrs wouldn't you give Haren something 20+ for 2 yrs? Maybe 25 for 2? Doesn't much sound like Ryan does it?
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#5 gunnarthor

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 10:55 AM

I think he's more likely to sign a 1 yr make good deal with someone like Oak or SD but we'd also make sense, since TF is a pitcher's park. I've been mentioning him for months. He really is a Twins type guy. I could see Ryan signing him.

#6 Boom Boom

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 10:55 AM

Prediction - the Twins will sign a FA pitcher. But it won't be anybody who's on your or my radar.

#7 Twins Twerp

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 11:39 AM

Prediction: the twins will sign a pitcher and most Twins fans (including me) will have to google him to find out who the heck he is. I had to do it last year with Carrol and Marquis. Also, the more irrelavent the Twins become year in and year out, the less most of us care about baseball. I mean it is hard to watch game 115 between the Cubs and Pirates...who cares anymore.

Baseball is too boring when the Twins don't play well.

#8 Willihammer

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 12:08 PM

Prediction - the Twins will sign a FA pitcher

named Matt Capps

#9 TiberTwins

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 12:23 PM

Prediction - the Twins will sign a FA pitcher

named Matt Capps


AAAHHHH!!!! My head is exploding! NOOOOOO!

#10 Boom Boom

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 12:25 PM

Prediction - the Twins will sign a FA pitcher

named Matt Capps


It doesn't count as a FA acquisition if they pick up his $6 million option.

#11 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 02:44 PM

I still think Haren is WELL outta the Twins price range but he has been back to his old self since coming off the DL with the back problems.
Last 11gms (not counting todays start)
61.2IP 55h .236BAA 24ERA 3.50ERA 45k 14bb
Always considered him 'just' short of an ace but an incredibly solid #2 type.....would love to see him here

#12 biggentleben

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 05:31 PM

Prediction: the twins will sign a pitcher and most Twins fans (including me) will have to google him to find out who the heck he is. I had to do it last year with Carrol and Marquis. Also, the more irrelavent the Twins become year in and year out, the less most of us care about baseball. I mean it is hard to watch game 115 between the Cubs and Pirates...who cares anymore.

Baseball is too boring when the Twins don't play well.


Really? You had to google Carroll and Marquis?!
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#13 biggentleben

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 05:31 PM

Prediction - the Twins will sign a FA pitcher. But it won't be anybody who's on your or my radar.


Tom Gorzelanny, come on down!
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#14 biggentleben

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 05:34 PM

I think he's more likely to sign a 1 yr make good deal with someone like Oak or SD but we'd also make sense, since TF is a pitcher's park. I've been mentioning him for months. He really is a Twins type guy. I could see Ryan signing him.


I could see Boston throwing way too much money at him for him to ignore, but the last guy they signed for big money from the Angels exploded on them, so there could be a worry.

If I'm Haren's agent, and he is let go by the Angels, I find the NL team who would give him a one year, $10-15M deal to regain his value, then hit the market for one last "big" contract at 33.
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#15 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 06:21 PM

I think he's more likely to sign a 1 yr make good deal with someone like Oak or SD but we'd also make sense, since TF is a pitcher's park. I've been mentioning him for months. He really is a Twins type guy. I could see Ryan signing him.


I could see Boston throwing way too much money at him for him to ignore, but the last guy they signed for big money from the Angels exploded on them, so there could be a worry.

If I'm Haren's agent, and he is let go by the Angels, I find the NL team who would give him a one year, $10-15M deal to regain his value, then hit the market for one last "big" contract at 33.


Boston will probably throw at him a 3 year 30+ million dollar deal. He would more than likely have a bloated ERA in the AL EAST, so if he is smart he would go somewhere else.

#16 kab21

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 07:04 PM

Twins dont offer multi yr deals to pitchers tho.
Lots of people think its the money offerred, but if a pitcher will take a 1 or 2 yr deal...then Terry Ryan will be interested. 3 yr deal....Twins are out. 4 yr deal, wont even negotiate.
What kind of deal wil Dan Haren, at 32, be interested in?? His velocity was down a lot this yr (88.5 ave vs career 90.9) but I have always been a big fan of his. Hopefully MN will contact him.


What is this based on? Years of 60M payrolls and/or having strong pitching staffs?

I can almost guarantee that the Twins will sign someone this offseason to break your historical trend.

Haren could work for me in the 3/30 neighborhood. He was injured this year but if he's healthy then he's a great #2 for a relatively bargain price. I'm just hoping that they don't lock onto someone and end up in the 5/75 neighborhood.

#17 Danchat

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 06:27 PM

Twins dont offer multi yr deals to pitchers tho.
Lots of people think its the money offerred, but if a pitcher will take a 1 or 2 yr deal...then Terry Ryan will be interested. 3 yr deal....Twins are out. 4 yr deal, wont even negotiate.
What kind of deal wil Dan Haren, at 32, be interested in?? His velocity was down a lot this yr (88.5 ave vs career 90.9) but I have always been a big fan of his. Hopefully MN will contact him.


What is this based on? Years of 60M payrolls and/or having strong pitching staffs?

I can almost guarantee that the Twins will sign someone this offseason to break your historical trend.

Haren could work for me in the 3/30 neighborhood. He was injured this year but if he's healthy then he's a great #2 for a relatively bargain price. I'm just hoping that they don't lock onto someone and end up in the 5/75 neighborhood.


I'm going to take a wild guess and say the historical trend won't be broken. Mainly because Ryan said something like: "We aren't going to sign a big FA this winter"
Twins are going/trying to make a smaller deal pay out dividends (like Willingham 3/21 or even Doumit). It remains to be seen if we can get a SP or two that can actually be decent.

#18 kab21

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 07:42 PM

a smaller deal like Willingham is still a multi year deal. I really^100 hope they don't spend big in FA this year but 3/30 for a pitcher is reasonable and breaks the so called historical trend.

#19 SpantheMan

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 08:06 PM

3/30 would still be their biggest free agent contract ever. But ryan saying they won't spend big doesn't mean anything

#20 Top Gun

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 08:24 PM

He has always been a very poor second half pitcher, so if your are thinking playoff forget it. Angals won't have much left.

#21 old nurse

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 09:14 PM

a smaller deal like Willingham is still a multi year deal. I really^100 hope they don't spend big in FA this year but 3/30 for a pitcher is reasonable and breaks the so called historical trend.


3/30 will get you an aging pitcher that has had one or two good years. That is why Ryan will not be making any splashes in the free agent market. If most teams do not pick up the options on their pitchers then there will be plenty of pitchers who will do a one year contract. The market will be clearer once the season ends.

#22 biggentleben

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 09:37 PM

He has always been a very poor second half pitcher, so if your are thinking playoff forget it. Angals won't have much left.


That's an old push on him, not the truth since he's been with the Angels. His 2011 was skewed by an oblique injury issue, but in second halfs that he's been somewhat healthy as an Angel, it's fairly significantly opposite...:

2012: 1.37 lower ERA, 0.29 lower WHIP in second half than first
2010: 1.02 lower ERA, 0.13 lower WHIP in second half than first:
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#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 10:51 PM

Twins dont offer multi yr deals to pitchers tho.
Lots of people think its the money offerred, but if a pitcher will take a 1 or 2 yr deal...then Terry Ryan will be interested. 3 yr deal....Twins are out. 4 yr deal, wont even negotiate.
What kind of deal wil Dan Haren, at 32, be interested in?? His velocity was down a lot this yr (88.5 ave vs career 90.9) but I have always been a big fan of his. Hopefully MN will contact him.



What is this based on? Years of 60M payrolls and/or having strong pitching staffs?

I can almost guarantee that the Twins will sign someone this offseason to break your historical trend.

Haren could work for me in the 3/30 neighborhood. He was injured this year but if he's healthy then he's a great #2 for a relatively bargain price. I'm just hoping that they don't lock onto someone and end up in the 5/75 neighborhood.


The Twins have rarely had a strong pitching staff, and a $60 million payroll has no bearing on the length of a deal, nothing stops a GM from signing a #4 pitcher to a 2 year $3 million deal. The fact simply is that Terry Ryan doesn't believe the risk of a multi-year deal is worth the reward of the quality of pitcher that comes with those kind of requests. The only multi-year deal Ryan has ever given a starter who didn't wear a Twins uniform in the previous season was Bob Tewksbury in 1997.

I agree that it's time for the philosophy to end but I'm not giving it very strong odds. Spending $20 per year total for Haren and Jake Peavy would solidify the front of the rotation and if they perform as expected and the Twins could be right back in contention. However, I don't think Ryan has the constitution to offer the multi-year deals necessary to do this. History tells us that instead of spending $10-15 million for a top of the rotation guy, Ryan will give $5 million for a replacement level guy and spread the rest of the money on a handfull of hit-or-miss position players. This has never made economical sense as that replacement level pitcher is never any better than the already crappy options in AAA but it lets Ryan sleep better at night as no risk was taken.

#24 beckmt

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Posted 30 September 2012 - 12:18 AM

Do not think that Haren and Peavy will sign for $10 mil a year. Both will probably get more than that, espically Peavy. Total for the two will be about $25 mil a year. Too many big market clubs need pitching.(Yankees, Boston, Mets) Twins are more likely to try and trade for major league ready starters from clubs like Tampa Bay, Seattle, Oakland (all of whom need offense and are interested in cost control players, which the Twins have).

#25 kab21

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Posted 30 September 2012 - 12:21 AM

I guess I'll just disagree with everyone about what Ryan means when he says the Twins won't spend big on pitching. I consider big to be the 50-100M range (Buehrle, CJ wilson, Cliff Lee for example). I consider 3/30 to be mid sized spending similar to the Willingham contract last year and puts the twins in the market for a decent pitcher without exposing them to too much long risk.

#26 Top Gun

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Posted 30 September 2012 - 01:14 AM

Ryan doesn't speak the truth anyway so why even think that?

#27 old nurse

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Posted 30 September 2012 - 05:34 AM

I guess I'll just disagree with everyone about what Ryan means when he says the Twins won't spend big on pitching. I consider big to be the 50-100M range (Buehrle, CJ wilson, Cliff Lee for example). I consider 3/30 to be mid sized spending similar to the Willingham contract last year and puts the twins in the market for a decent pitcher without exposing them to too much long risk.


3/30 is not at all similar to a Willingham contract. There is a huge amount of difference between 7 million a year and 10.
What the Twins would hope for is a 1.5 WAR player they sign in the to blossom into a 3.

#28 TheLeviathan

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Posted 30 September 2012 - 06:27 AM

3/30 is not at all similar to a Willingham contract. There is a huge amount of difference between 7 million a year and 10.What the Twins would hope for is a 1.5 WAR player they sign in the to blossom into a 3.


What kab is saying is that 3/30 is the pitching equivalent of the Willingham contract - not small, but not a huge deal either. I would venture to bet that what the Twins will do is hope to have another offseason like Burton, Fien, Willingham, and Doumit. I just give them very low odds of being successful with that a second time.