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Article: Deep Starting Pitching Market Is A Lucky Break For Twins

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55 replies to this topic

#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 07:57 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...Break-For-Twins

#2 Seth Stohs

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:01 PM

John, just to warn you... when we meet to discuss F/A salaries, I will probably disagree with you on like 95% of the starting pitchers.

Greinke has Barry Zito contract written all over him. The starting pitcher mark is OK and there are some good arms. There isn't a single arm that doesn't come with a bunch of question marks.

I'd be happy with the Twins going after Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez, but if it's actually going to take those $20M contracts, the Twins need to just say no.

#3 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:22 PM

Ive actually been hearing national reports that think this yrs crop is incdedibly thin & overrated ......predicting that Jermemy Guthrie is gonna get 10m/yr type of crop

#4 Lesser Dali

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:34 PM

I would be concerned, but I have no doubt the Twins will not make a foolish, big money offer on any of the free agent pitchers. Greinke will get paid, but other than that it would be foolish to offer big yearly money with years attached to it to any of the other FA's. In my opinion, Greinke is worth no more than 3 years at 36M. Although his mental state has leveled off a bit, I still here stories of him being aloof and not being a very good clubhouse guy. This is not an individual I would invest 100M into.

#5 Lesser Dali

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:38 PM

Ive actually been hearing national reports that think this yrs crop is incdedibly thin & overrated ......predicting that Jermemy Guthrie is gonna get 10m/yr type of crop


If that is the case - stick with the likes of Deduno, Hendriks, or John Doe and hope for Gibson to enter the scene with some gusto. Jeremy Guthrie at 10M per - Disgraceful!!!

#6 old nurse

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:44 PM

Where the twins may benefit from this market is if teams overpay a starter they may have to dump someone for salary, Someone may have to give up a two or a three because they invested too much. With a trade that fills a hole for the other team they will not feel like they lost out.

#7 clutterheart

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 11:47 PM

One thing to note in the GM handbook, the Twins have money to spend with a lot coming off the books this year AND no player on their roster will require a significant investment in the next 3-5 years.

So if they sign a pitcher for 4 years 20 Million, it would not cause them to lose any young superstars on their current roster to FA.

Twins need 2-3 Starting Pitchers & maybe a MI if there is one to be had
1 Staring Pitcher 20 Million a year makes the payroll around 90 Million
1 Starting Pitcher 8 million a year makes the payroll around 98 Million
With a million or two to spend for a decent MI bench player or a flyer on a project makes the payroll around 100 million.

Unless they plan to cut payroll down even further, this team has the long term room to get some decent starting pitchers if they choose to.

#8 Shane Wahl

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 12:02 AM

I am pretty confused by this and the G and G podcast. The latter seemed to indicate that pitchers would be available on one or two year contracts for under 10 million, and some WELL under that.

There is no way that 20 million is thrown at more than a couple pitchers. And then I would expect a big drop.

I guess I would ask for specifics:

Greinke:

A. Sanchez:

Jackson:

E. Santana:

Marcum:

Blanton:


This provides a good range, in my view of the 20 mil vs. the 6-8 mil pitchers. There is no doubt that Boston and New York will try to buy big, but after that? The Angels are done spending, the Dodgers are done spending. Only a few other teams will make ONE big expenditure for somebody. The value in many of these guys drops a lot, though in the G and G podcast is seemed like it would drop in a HUGE way down to the 5 million range.

#9 Shane Wahl

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 12:04 AM

By the way, given that those top two are unreachable, I would love for the Twins to sign any two of the bottom four there. And if all can be had for 2 year contracts, that would be fantastic.

#10 ScottyB

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 01:32 AM

It will be interesting to see where Greinke ends up. He hates the big city spotlight, but will be too expensive for almost everyone but Boston and New York. I wouldn't touch Blanton, his numbers in the NL suck and coming into the AL will inflate even further. He's not worth the $10M he's making now, let alone what the bidding will bloat his salary to. Sanchez is making $8M now, and he's been no better than some of our in-house options since coming over from the NL to the Tigers. I'm very leary of any NL only pitcher coming to the AL. Jackson has a good history no matter the league, but would like to stay put. I think the Nats will accomodate him with a 3-year deal. Which leaves Santana and Marcum. I believe the Angels will pick up Santana's $13M option. Marcum would be a good fit. He had a very good 2010 in Toronto, but I think he will be priced out of the Twins comfort zone. I'm intrigued by Carlos Villanueva and I'd be interested in Brandon McCarthy.

#11 Fire Dan Gladden

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 06:30 AM

If you are an individual that believes the Twins are 2-3 years away from being competitive, how do you feel about the team going out and spending $20-30 mil on FA pitching this offseason? Seems to me you should be upset about the the team throwing money at pitchers when they still aren't close. That being said, what would the opinion be if you felt that way and they didn't spend the money?

I believe they are close. Spending $12-15 mil for 2 mid-level FA pitchers could put them back in the mix (assuming they don't make any of the Span/Morneau trades.)

#12 mike wants wins

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 07:30 AM

If you will not pay market prices, you will not the best players...best meaning those that the market thinks are the best at the time of signing, not after the fact. I expect one middling signing and one flyer, cheap signing, and 85 to 90 losses next year.

#13 LewFordLives

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 07:36 AM

Unfortunately, the Twins aren't the only team in need of starting pitching. While a guy like Marcum might be a good fit for us, he's probably a good fit for 10 other teams as well. I don't expect the Twins to sign any impact pitchers.

#14 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 09:02 AM

The Twins won't be able to fix this rotation soley through Free Agency. If they really want to have at least an average rotation heading into next year they need to do the following:

1. Gibson needs to step up by June.
2. They need to trade Span/Morneau/Willingham for a legit high upside arm.
3. They need to find the "Willingham" of SP on the FA market.

I can't see them competing for anyone that has #1/#2 or even high end #3 type stuff on the FA market, much of the burden will fall on shrewd trades or if Gibson/Baker can step up and be a #2 in 2013.

#15 ericchri

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 09:17 AM

You have to be a little leary of any NL pitchers who would be moving over to the AL. The numbers over time back up the fact that pitchers tend to struggle making that move. Smaller ballparks on average, DH instead of pitchers in the lineup. Guys who look pretty good in the NL often don't look so good in the AL. That doesn't just mean an increase in ERA, which is understandable, but also in things that try and account for differences like ERA+, it's common to see pitchers revert some when making that move. Obviously you can find individual cases that made the move successfully, but the trend is well-established to not have as much success.

I'll be curious to see the trend for Target Field long-term as far as hitter-friendliness. First couple years it played big, but it seems it's normalizing a bit this year. But we probably won't really know until another half-dozen years how it's really going to play over time.

Edited by ericchri, 20 September 2012 - 09:21 AM.


#16 Dave T

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 10:35 AM

Most of the Twins' improvement in starting pitching next year will result from our current group of young pitchers doing better with experience. I have high hopes for Gibson -- for 2014. Next year he will be in his first year in the majors, and in his first year back after Tommy John surgery.

#17 kab21

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 10:59 AM

While the SP market is better than most years I am going to disagree that it is really deep.

Good SP'ers
greinke
Sanchez
Marcum
Jackson

the rest are pretty mediocre since Colby Lewis had TJ and McCarthy fractured his skull

The best path imo if you don't go after Greinke or Marcum is to try and get a pair of guys like Villanueva and Baker on shorter term (but not 1 yr) contracts in the 5-7M range.

#18 John Bonnes

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 11:08 AM

John, just to warn you... when we meet to discuss F/A salaries, I will probably disagree with you on like 95% of the starting pitchers.


It was really hard coming up with those numbers. I'm very open for feedback. I'm already starting to modify them a bit.

#19 John Bonnes

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 11:12 AM

I guess I would ask for specifics:

Greinke, A. Sanchez, Jackson, E. Santana, Marcum, Blanton:


This provides a good range, in my view of the 20 mil vs. the 6-8 mil pitchers. There is no doubt that Boston and New York will try to buy big, but after that? The Angels are done spending, the Dodgers are done spending. Only a few other teams will make ONE big expenditure for somebody. The value in many of these guys drops a lot, though in the G and G podcast is seemed like it would drop in a HUGE way down to the 5 million range.


I don't want to publish numbers until the other guys have seen them, I'd say the first three all will get $20M + deals. Santana is one of my $10+ M guys, but could be as high as $20 if he finishes strong. Marcum might get to $10, but may need to do a one-year deal for less. Blanton I'd have in the 6ish range.

#20 Winston Smith

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 11:53 AM

Sanchez has not looked very good in the AL so far he may need to go back to the NL. Santana has neg war and has been really bad. If these guys are going to get north of 7-8 mill a yr that isn't a very good bang for the buck. For the most part all the guys with decent numbers are NL guys and could be big failures in the AL.
I just don't see the list of Starters as deep at all. That's not saying they wouldn't improve our rotation but I don't see many guys that will make a big impact. It's more likely that we pick up a Millwood, Guthrie or Saunders type and resign Pavano, imo.

#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 12:12 PM

I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him.

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 12:23 PM

I think your estimates are way too low, Seth. I think Jackson will get at least 3/$30m. Sanchez will probably get close to the same if he pitches well in his remaining starts (he looked pretty bad with Miami in his final months and struggled with Detroit right off the bat).

#23 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 12:34 PM

This is a deep FA pitching class??? Grienke yes--if he could keep his head together. Sanchez maybe but not having a good time now with Detroit. The rest--you gotta be kidding.

I wouldnt give any of them more than 6mill a year; or 15 mill for 3. They are not youngsters--staying healthy for 3 years is a question for all of them. I have stated on other threads that Jackson (#4 starter here for Nats--yes deep rotation) is overrated. I dont think he is better than Diamond. He may be the best after Greinke.

Twins much better off trading Span/Revere/Morneau (packaged with somebody else) for a good number 2 starter or better yet a high prospect ready to pitch in 2014.

#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 12:41 PM

This is a deep FA pitching class??? Grienke yes--if he could keep his head together. Sanchez maybe but not having a good time now with Detroit. The rest--you gotta be kidding.

I wouldnt give any of them more than 6mill a year; or 15 mill for 3. They are not youngsters--staying healthy for 3 years is a question for all of them. I have stated on other threads that Jackson (#4 starter here for Nats--yes deep rotation) is overrated. I dont think he is better than Diamond. He may be the best after Greinke.

Twins much better off trading Span/Revere/Morneau (packaged with somebody else) for a good number 2 starter or better yet a high prospect ready to pitch in 2014.


Sanchez has actually started to put it together a bit. He has been pitching quite well in September. I'd still be leery of the guy. He was below average for at least two months this season, maybe even three. He was scuffling well before the trade to Detroit.

#25 mike wants wins

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 01:08 PM

Few good pitchers will ever be free agents. Great pitchers, yes, because they are expensive. But good pitchers? Not super likely. If they want good pitchers, they will need to trade.

#26 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 01:31 PM

Rather make a deal for someone like Brandon Morrow than mess around with whom Terry Ryan will chase....jeff francis types

#27 glunn

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 01:46 PM

Another view might be that since 2013 is going to be a rebuilding year anyway, it might be better to focus on trading for prospects who are projected to be ready in 2014 and 2015 rather than paying big bucks for someone who is ready before they are needed.

#28 Winston Smith

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 02:08 PM

Another view might be that since 2013 is going to be a rebuilding year anyway, it might be better to focus on trading for prospects who are projected to be ready in 2014 and 2015 rather than paying big bucks for someone who is ready before they are needed.

I like the long term build with youth way, not sure the band aid approach gets us very far.

#29 JP3700

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 02:11 PM

Surprised no one has even mentioned Jake Peavy. The white sox have already said they aren't going to pick up his option. I don't think the twins should go after him but his being on the market might make a couple of the mid level guys like Jackson, Marcum or Sanchez more affordable/available.

#30 kab21

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 06:24 PM

I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him.

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.


These numbers are way too low. Sanchez and Jackson are definitely getting 10+M/yr deals and Marcum will probably get 10M/yr if he looks relatively healthy.

Ervin Santana is looking all kinds of awful and there is no reason to be intrigued. Blanton has a long history of sucking in the NL.