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Article: Morneau vs. The Void

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 10:59 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...eau-vs-The-Void

#2 jorgenswest

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 11:19 PM

It might be added that given the position of first base on the defensive spectrum, Morneau is really in competition any other bat. A team could sign Hamilton and then fill 1B internally by moving a player from another position. In any case, there will be demand for Morneau. Starting pitching is such a valued asset, but the Twins must continue to demand it in return or keep Morneau.

#3 BD57

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 05:37 AM

Finish out the year and then evaluate. Morneau's been really good for the last month. Maybe it's just a 'good run' ... maybe it's a "return to form."

#4 Parker Hageman

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 05:54 AM

I think the question here shouldn't be "what is currently available to other teams" but "what teams need a 1B AND can take on $14 million contract". If I am assessing the field, it would seem that the Dodgers/Rangers and maybe to a lesser extent Blue Jays/Orioles are the types of teams that will be in the market for Morneau.

#5 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 06:27 AM

Right now, I say ride the Mornie train for as long as you can. If the Twins can pick up some decent starting pitching this off-season, there's no reason they can't compete with the Tigers and Sox by trotting out Span-Revere-Mauer-Willingham-Morneau-Plouffe-Doumit as their top 7 every day. Ideally, Mornie is his old self next year, and the Twins are back to being competitive. Runner-up scenario is Justin is good, but the team's not, and we flip him at the deadline for a huge haul.

#6 TKGuy

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 06:28 AM

I'd say keep Morneau. I think if he does return to form, next year at the deadline he would be worth a lot, or we could try to extend him with a two-year deal if he keeps this up. How much value does a Parmalee have with his killing the AAA leagues? Would the Pirates or Brewers be willing to give up a starter? Morneau probably can't get us a starter, but I bet you that Parmalee could.

#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 06:28 AM

I'd assume that the Twins would have to pay some salary to get anything decent in return. With that said, Morneau would be extremely tempting to other teams if he rakes for the rest of the season, hits another 7-10 dingers, and gets that OPS over .850. At that point, you can start arguing that the old Morneau is back.

#8 Alex

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 07:33 AM

I think the question here shouldn't be "what is currently available to other teams" but "what teams need a 1B AND can take on $14 million contract". If I am assessing the field, it would seem that the Dodgers/Rangers and maybe to a lesser extent Blue Jays/Orioles are the types of teams that will be in the market for Morneau.


Exactly, and I'd add willing to give something back in return, which may not happen. At this point, I don't see the reason to free up his salary as it doesn't sound like the Twins will use it, and selling off Morneau for cheap won't put people in th seats.

I'd like to see three conditions for the Twins to pull the trigger in the offseason.
1) They have a plan to do something with the money.
2) Parmelee continues to hit.
3) Someone is desperate enough to give something in return.

Otherwise, why not just wait until next year's trade deadline? It's a bit of a gamble but if he continues to hit and stays healthy his demand should be way up as he'd be a great addition for another team and $7m might be more palatable for a team looking at the playoffs.

#9 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 07:47 AM

I think Morneau's highest value would come in the trade deadline next season. Of course if you get an offer you can't refuse this off-season then trade him, but if he continues to hit well (I don't see why he won't) He could be back to a .850+ OPS, 25+ HR guy next season, an impact bat like that at the deadline next season could potentially bring back a Beltran like package. Also, I think the Twins have a decent chance to compete in 2013, I don't think its a coincidence that once Morneau started hitting better this year the team started playing better overall. I'd much rather trade Span this off-season since he could bring in a bigger haul, you can find at bats for Parmelee at RF and DH in that scenario. Lastly, I like Morneau and he is one of my favorite Twins players ever, I'd personally hate to see him traded, especially for a salary dump type reason.

#10 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 07:49 AM

yeah, short of trading span and letting Parmelee sit in right for a bit, I don't see how they can keep Morneau and Parmelee long term. Morneau is a fan favorite, and my personal favorite, but from a business standpoint, the Twins would be wise to flip him for pitching as I assume they would never flip a guy like Parmelee. By the end of the season, it should be fairly obvious if he's back, and with less money owed and a track record that states that he is a difference maker when healthy, I think some team would trade a nice pitching prospect for him.

#11 CRArko

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 08:22 AM

yeah, short of trading span and letting Parmelee sit in right for a bit, I don't see how they can keep Morneau and Parmelee long term. Morneau is a fan favorite, and my personal favorite, but from a business standpoint, the Twins would be wise to flip him for pitching as I assume they would never flip a guy like Parmelee. By the end of the season, it should be fairly obvious if he's back, and with less money owed and a track record that states that he is a difference maker when healthy, I think some team would trade a nice pitching prospect for him.


Maybe testing the waters for Parmelee isn't a bad idea. There's a good chance the future at 1st base for this team after Justin is Mauer followed by Sano.

#12 tmerrickkeller

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 08:46 AM

I like JM, too, but we're debating whether he would be worth his 2013 salary to some team "if he continues to produce." Suggesting that he would bring a strong pitching prospect in addition to someone willing to pay his $13M 2013 salary is setting the bar too high. It's the reason we're all disappointed in the actual trades that occur - because not too many GMs are willing to give up a good prospect AND overpay (versus his FA value).

#13 Thrylos

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 08:56 AM

I said this in an earlier thread too: This season Morneau has been an around 1 WAR guy. Will probably finish around 1.5-2 for the season. Next season if everything goes well, he will be a 2-3 WAR guy. Parmelee can easily cover at least half of that (realistic/pessimistic scenario, not optimistic. He had 1.3 WAR last season in a single month or so -WAR is an additive, not a rate stat btw; likely he will match it but I am not even going there). So, if the Twins can get a 2-3+ WAR SP either for Morneau or with his $14M for 2013, they will be ahead. This means that even if they get what they got for Valencia they will be ahead if they get a good pitcher with the cash... Just math and who is available behind Morneau and what the needs of this club are...

Edited by Thrylos, 07 August 2012 - 08:59 AM.

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#14 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:01 AM

I like JM, too, but we're debating whether he would be worth his 2013 salary to some team "if he continues to produce." Suggesting that he would bring a strong pitching prospect in addition to someone willing to pay his $13M 2013 salary is setting the bar too high. It's the reason we're all disappointed in the actual trades that occur - because not too many GMs are willing to give up a good prospect AND overpay (versus his FA value).



Here's the thing, if Morneau is reasonably close to his old self, someone will do that, because 13M is a bargain. Had it not been for injuries in 2009 and 2010, Justin would have likely been in the MVP conversations, but between a cracked spine and a nasty concussion, he had pretty bad second halfs of those seasons, and then in 2011, he was obviously not back... For that matter, he struggled this spring as well. He's starting to hit lefties again, he's hitting with authority, and if he keeps that up for the remainder of the season, some team will give something up for him as he's put the injury issues behind him. Worst case is that Ryan has to wait till June/July to trade him.

#15 Nick Nelson

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:03 AM

I think the question here shouldn't be "what is currently available to other teams" but "what teams need a 1B AND can take on $14 million contract". If I am assessing the field, it would seem that the Dodgers/Rangers and maybe to a lesser extent Blue Jays/Orioles are the types of teams that will be in the market for Morneau.


I'd rather cover half Morneau's salary and get a quality return than simply try to unload his contract. If he keeps hitting through the end of the year, I have to imagine there are a number of teams that would be very interested in adding him at $7M next year. At that point, you create a bit of a bidding war, which is exactly what the Twins need.

#16 Riverbrian

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:46 AM

Is Parmelee out of options??? If Parmelee can play at AAA we are good. Let Morneau play and build up trade value. Parmelee will arrive when Morneau is dealt or not re-signed to a contract. Or when Morneau, Willingham or Doumit are on the DL. If Parmelee is out of options... and continues to hit at AAA. He could force the Twins hand to move Morneau before they should. Is Parmelee out of options?

#17 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:49 AM

Is Parmelee out of options??? If Parmelee can play at AAA we are good. Let Morneau play and build up trade value. Parmelee will arrive when Morneau is dealt or not re-signed to a contract. Or when Morneau, Willingham or Doumit are on the DL.

If Parmelee is out of options... and continues to hit at AAA. He could force the Twins hand to move Morneau before they should.

Is Parmelee out of options?


No, I think he has an option for 2013. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

The problem with holding him at AAA is that Chris is absolutely killing it in Rochester. The guy has posted an OPS of 1.150 (crikey!) with an OBP of .475 (double crikey!) after posting an OPS of over 1.000 in Minnesota last September. If he plays every day, he mashes the ball. You have to find a spot for a guy like that sooner rather than later.

#18 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:56 AM

Yeah, Parmalee needs to be on this team. My guess is, though, it will be in RF next year with Span on his way out the door. It's really a shame they don't have somewhere for him right now.

#19 Riverbrian

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:57 AM

No, I think he has an option for 2013. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

The problem with holding him at AAA is that Chris is absolutely killing it in Rochester. The guy has posted an OPS of 1.150 (crikey!) with an OBP of .475 (double crikey!) after posting an OPS of over 1.000 in Minnesota last September. If he plays every day, he mashes the ball. You have to find a spot for a guy like that sooner rather than later.


Yeah Parmelee may force his way in with continued stellar play. It could be that there is nothing for him to prove in AAA. However, he has to have a spot to play and 1B and DH are covered by guys who will not play in Rochester. He has to wait his turn and that turn will most likely come with an injury to Morneau, Willingham or Doumit.

It sounds like a sticky situation but it's a good problem to have. Parmelee increases our options... Not only Morneau but Doumit and Willingham are trading options because of his play.

Until then... I would not do anything to those 3 to decrease trade value. Moving Parmelee ahead of them would send the wrong message.

#20 Thrylos

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:58 AM

No, I think he has an option for 2013. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.


and 2014. He was a September callup in 2011. He has 2 more option years. This was his first option season.
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#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:59 AM

and 2014. He was a September callup in 2011. He has 2 more option years. This was his first option season.


Right. He was only a September guy last season. I wasn't thinking.

#22 DPJ

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 10:03 AM

Yeah, Parmalee needs to be on this team. My guess is, though, it will be in RF next year with Span on his way out the door.

It's really a shame they don't have somewhere for him right now.


Parm is no OF, he's best at 1B or DH.

If the made Doumit an actually backup C/1B then it fixed everything but I don't see that happening.

#23 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 10:08 AM

Parm is no OF, he's best at 1B or DH.

If the made Doumit an actually backup C/1B then it fixed everything but I don't see that happening.


I'd agree with that, but Gardy won't.... Doumit has certainly warranted PT with his play as well and Gardy is going to give that time to the vet. Honestly, if Mauer could play some 3rd instead of 1st, it might make a bit more sense. I'd think if Joe can play first, he should be able to play 3rd.. He has the arm for it.

#24 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 10:09 AM

Parm is no OF, he's best at 1B or DH.

If the made Doumit an actually backup C/1B then it fixed everything but I don't see that happening.


I'm not saying I want him there long-term, but that's what is likely to happen.

#25 StormJH1

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 10:11 AM

I respect John's research and what he's trying to do here, but the approach is misleading. Trying to predict in August 2012 what teams will roll with at first base in April 2013 is much harder than it would seem, ESPECIALLY at 1st base. Teams want big, dumb power at first base, and the position becomes a dumping ground for guys who fail defensively at other positions, but have power potential. Every year, there's guys like Russell Branyan, Garrett Jones, and slew of Triple-A or "post hype" prospects that end up playing 1st base for MLB teams in unpredictable fashion. Given the choice between that option (often promoted from within) or paying $14 million to Morneau next year AND giving up prospects of any value, teams are going to opt for the former. And if they do trade, there are a lot of other guys that could be moved with cheaper salaries. I just don't want us to do the Liriano thing where we overvalue a Twin based on past contributions, and then are surprised by how little we actually get in return. Granted, Morneau was a bigger star than Liriano, and has hit much better of late. But the league knows that he's one accident away from being worthless to them. He'd probably be viewed as more of a Jim Thome or Frank Thomas 2006 plug than any type of long-term option you would give up assets for. Also, the Twins "brand" has taken a severe hit in these two terrible seasons. We are now considered as one of the "bad team" akin to Seattle, Houston, etc. Those teams probably have some good players with value, but it's tough to sell other teams on good players stuck on horrible teams.

#26 Riverbrian

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 10:13 AM

The other solution is crazy and I don't see Gardy ever doing it. But how about this. A true rotation of Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee and even Mauer next year. Let's assume Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and WIllingham are holding down DH, C, 1B and LF next year. One Day on the Bench each week will get Parmelee and everybody playing time without having anyone spend ungodly periods of time on the bench. Just a little creative thinking and they can all fit in. I doubt Gardy would do it though. It's a crazy idea.

#27 JB_Iowa

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 10:17 AM

I want to believe that Morneau's health issues are behind him .... but I have a hard time forgetting that it isn't JUST the issue of his concussion or even his concussion AND his wrist. He also had a fairly serious back problem in August/September 2009. Do you just dismiss that and figure he'll be okay from here on out? Do you think about that in conjunction with the concussion and wrist and his age and see Red Flags? Do you think that the change in his training routine will help him avoid injury (less is more and concentrate on the core? I like Morneau and have previously (2009/2010) argued that he was more important to the team's success than Mauer -- in part because I think Justin has leadership skills and now that he is playing regularly and well, I think he might exhibit more of them. But there may be a short window for capitalizing on a return for him. I just feel like we're holding our breath waiting for something else to happen.

#28 Dave T

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 11:02 AM

Morneau is too good. If his current level of performance continues for the rest of the year, the Twins should extend him. Parmalee is a good first baseman for a mediocre team -- trade him, not Morneau.

#29 SeanS7921

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 11:18 AM

Morneau is so good again. He is finally hitting like an average first baseban. YEEEA! Lets hope he doesn't fall down, get hit by a pitch or punch a wall the rest of the season or else next year is a wash. What do average first basemen with a huge salary go for in the trade market? Nothing that's what. If they could dump his contract it would be great but I doubt any team would do that even for nothing in return.

#30 Craig in MN

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 11:55 AM

I don't see TR eating salary and I don't see him trading Morneau for non-prospects. The Dodgers had at least some interesting Morneau and a lot of veteran arms in their rotation. It's really hard to say what the Dodgers are going to do next year, but they are spending money and need a first baseman. TR is going to try to get some veteran arms for the rotation somehow (right or wrong). I could easily see a trade to the Dodgers centered around Morneau for Harang or Capuano or even Ted Lilly, depending on how certain his health is. Jerry Hairston, Juan Rivera or (also unhealthy) Matt Guerrier could get tossed in to keep the payroll in line. There's a lot of ways they could make it work. I don't particularly like this trade...just saying it could happen.

Edited by Craig in MN, 07 August 2012 - 12:01 PM.