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Article: Gleeman & the Geek Ep 50: Waving the White Flag

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 15 July 2012 - 09:55 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...-the-White-Flag

#2 @_2244

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 08:52 AM

Did I hear correctly that Liriano is not a headcase?

#3 Seth Stohs

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 09:42 AM

I think there was a `10-12 minute discussion on that very topic.

#4 @_2244

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 11:01 AM

After listening to this podcast again, I guess I can conclude that I am a non-analytical person. I couldn't disagree more with the notion that Liriano is not a headcase.

#5 jeffk

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 12:19 PM

Yeah, I think Aaron was arguing that the variation in Lirano's performance is normal. It's probably a question that could be answered quantitatively, for example, what does the run distribution by inning for a typical starting pitcher look like? Perhaps for a guy with a ~5 ERA it's something like 0 1 0 2 0 1 0, for example (specifically, you'd be looking at the standard deviation of runs by inning). For Liriano, every time it seems to be 0 0 0 0 0 0 5. It's hard to say for sure, but I would guess that either he's a head case or there's something about his pitching style that makes huge innings more likely.

#6 Boom Boom

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 12:36 PM

Yeah, I think Aaron was arguing that the variation in Lirano's performance is normal. It's probably a question that could be answered quantitatively, for example, what does the run distribution by inning for a typical starting pitcher look like? Perhaps for a guy with a ~5 ERA it's something like 0 1 0 2 0 1 0, for example (specifically, you'd be looking at the standard deviation of runs by inning). For Liriano, every time it seems to be 0 0 0 0 0 0 5. It's hard to say for sure, but I would guess that either he's a head case or there's something about his pitching style that makes huge innings more likely.


Part of it might be that he's struggling with his mechanics more when pitching out of the stretch.

For his career, hitters' OPS against Liriano improves from .659 to .761 when there are runners on.

#7 snepp

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 12:52 PM

For his career, hitters' OPS against Liriano improves from .659 to .761 when there are runners on.


Compared to the league average increase, which is only 30-ish points.
"Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
- Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

#8 Boom Boom

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 12:55 PM

Compared to the league average increase, which is only 30-ish points.


Right, just about every pitcher is somewhat worse with runners on. But the difference with bases empty and with runners on for Liriano would indicate that either having runners on gets in his head, or pitching out of the stretch makes it more difficult for him to locate his pitches. Or, most likely, some of both.

#9 @_2244

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 01:47 PM

Liriano has a UHR of 96.8 out of a scale of 100. League average is 21.4 for pitchers, so he is wayyyy ahead of the curve here.

#10 John Bonnes

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 03:10 PM

Liriano has a UHR of 96.8 out of a scale of 100. League average is 21.4 for pitchers, so he is wayyyy ahead of the curve here.


What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?

#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 03:14 PM

What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?


Meh, everybody knows that Ultimate Headcase Rating numbers aren't reliable until the player has played at least three consecutive seasons with a live chicken strapped to his head.

edit: Son of a bitch...

Attached File  liriano-chicken.jpg   48.52KB   27 downloads

#12 @_2244

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 03:20 PM

What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?


Bingo.

#13 BrentMpls

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 07:55 PM

Meh, everybody knows that Ultimate Headcase Rating numbers aren't reliable until the player has played at least three consecutive seasons with a live chicken strapped to his head.

edit: Son of a bitch...

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1570[/ATTACH]


Will the chicken help him keep his balance, reducing the chance of falling over?

#14 mike wants wins

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 08:05 PM

The point isn't that Liriano isn't a headcase, the point is that giving up a HR in that game is not PROOF that he is a headcase. That when he gives up runs, it is not necessarily because he is a headcase. That was the point..... Either way, another good episode.
Lighten up Francis....

#15 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 08:57 PM

the occasional HR isn't the reason, it's the sudden inability to find the strike zone.