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Keith Law has four Twins in MLB's Top 100

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 09 February 2012 - 08:44 PM

Here were his top 10 Twins prospects and where the top four ranked in all of MLB:

1. Miguel Sano, 3B (28)
2. Eddie Rosario, CF (50)
3. Aaron Hicks, CF (80)
4. Oswaldo Arcia, RF (85)
5. Joe Benson, OF
6. Levi Michael, SS
7. Brian Dozier, IF
8. Kyle Gibson, RHP
9. Travis Harrison, 3B
10. Alex Wimmers, RHP

There has been quite a bit of doom and gloom about the Twins farm system lately, and I gotta say, his writeup of the top four really encouraged me. He sees a lot of upside from those guys.

#2 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 08:22 AM

I've been saying it all along. There is some really good high-end talent in this list. Consider that this list doesn't include Parmelee, who we all think can be an adequate big league 1B. It doesn't include Hendriks, who most people think will at least be a solid #3 starter. Same thing with Adrian Salcedo. My point has always been that a minor league system can't only be about developing All-Stars, but it also has to be about developing solid regulars to compliment the all-Stars. And with all the power arms they drafted in 2011 (Boyd, Boer, Summers, Williams, Burris, Higginbotham) and 5 top 100 picks in the upcoming draft, I'm optimistic. I also think we were spoiled from 2004-2006 when we saw Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Liriano, Garza all come up and be pretty good.

#3 John Bonnes

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 01:06 PM

I saw this in another place this week too. In a post on Seedling to Stars (I think) they listed which of the Twins prospects had been listed in various top 100 lists. None of the lists had a big number of Twins - but there were about eight guys that made at least one group's top 100. That was far more than other AL Central clubs. Others (especially the Royals) had a lot more high end prospects, but the Twins had a lot of guys that were either on the fringe or were higher risk/reward guys. If they can get some of these guys to advance this year, this could be a very exciting farm system at this time next year. (Crossing fingers)

#4 Nick Nelson

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 01:14 PM

There has been quite a bit of doom and gloom about the Twins farm system lately, and I gotta say, his writeup of the top four really encouraged me. He sees a lot of upside from those guys.


I think most of the "doom and gloom" is based not on a lack of talent, but a lack of immediacy. That certainly rings true with this list. Among all four prospects ranking in the Top 100, none have succeeded above Low-A ball yet. Two of them haven't even played in a full-season league.

The Twins' current crop of top prospects inspires a lot of hope that the big-league club will be receiving a powerful infusion of talent in 3-4 years. Unfortunately, that's not the type of thing that satiates your average fan.

Consider that this list doesn't include Parmelee, who we all think can be an adequate big league 1B. It doesn't include Hendriks, who most people think will at least be a solid #3 starter.

Whoa. Let's not go nuts. I, for one, don't see Parmelee as an adequate starting first baseman in the majors, and I think it's probably more realistic to say most people Hendriks will be at best a solid #3 starter.

#5 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 02:25 PM

I don't think 'adequate' is exactly a glowing endorsement. And on Hendriks, I think I actually menat to put "could be" instead of "will". I agree with the immediacy thing. That seems to be waht people worry about. I guess my point is that there are guys who could come up and not hurt them. I mean, Brian Buscher came up a couple of years and surrounded by a good core, was a decent contributor at times. I'd put guys like Dozier, Parmelee, Benson, Tosoni, and a few others at that category with potential for more.

#6 Fanatic Jack

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Posted 12 February 2012 - 11:49 AM

I believe the Twins farm system has really struggled since Deron Johnson took over the scouting department in 2007. Here are his soon to be missed #1 draft picks;

1. 2007 pick Ben Revere (No power, no arm,struggles to get on base).
2. 2008 pick Aaron Hicks (Very inconsistent, can’thit LH, and now 22).
3. 2009 pick Kyle Gibson (Fell in draftbecause of injuries, TJ surgery, See Neshek, Liriano, and Nathan for more).
4. 2010 pick Alex Wimmers (struggled withcontrol, if he does pan out is #3 at best).
5. 2011 pick Levi Micahel (History ofinjuries, if he is so good why did he fall to 30 in draft)

My hope is MikeRadcliff and Terry Ryan take charge and have a great draft in June. This will provide depth to the system and apossible number one starter. Please take Lucas Giolito.

Edited by Fanatic Jack, 12 February 2012 - 11:51 AM.


#7 Fanatic Jack

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Posted 12 February 2012 - 11:55 AM

Nick, Your crazy Chris Parmelee will be as good if not better than Justin Morneau. Minus of course the concussion problems.

Edited by Fanatic Jack, 12 February 2012 - 11:58 AM.


#8 The Dread Pirate

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Posted 20 February 2012 - 05:15 PM

Nick,

Your crazy Chris Parmelee will be as good if not better than Justin Morneau. Minus of course the concussion problems.


Somehow I just don't see Chris Parmelee's .390 BABIP lasting longer than a month. The ONLY way Parmelee is better than Morneau is if Morneau's concussion problems won't go away.

#9 Thrylos

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Posted 20 February 2012 - 05:54 PM

2. Eddie Rosario, CF (50)
.


I think that "Eddie Rosario, 2B" would rank even higher in that list...

#10 Thrylos

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Posted 20 February 2012 - 05:59 PM

Brian Buscher came up a couple of years and surrounded by a good core, was a decent contributor at times. I'd put guys like Dozier, Parmelee, Benson, Tosoni, and a few others at that category with potential for more.


If these guys have Brian Buscher potential, then the system is worse that we thought :D

Buscher was never even a AAAA guy. The Twins brought him up because they had a hole to fill. And he was 26 when he came up (think Tolbert - similar guys.) Now Buscher retired after his age 29 season in Columbus.

#11 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 February 2012 - 06:15 PM

My point is that even someone like Buscher could come up and contribute to a team when the team is pretty well set. Last year, so many came up together that it was really a tough situation. I hope that all four of those guys have a higher ceiling (those four would be ready to come up and contribute now... I wasn't referring to the Sano's and Rosario's).

#12 StormJH1

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:25 AM

I've seen/heard Law on Twitter/podcasts, and he is a little more optimistic on the Twins than are most people. I think there is some hope with Sano, Arcia, and Rosario that we get a star player out of that (reserving judgment on Hicks until he does ANYTHING in the minors). What's alarming to me is that you never seen any Twins pitchers on a Top 100 MLB prospect list, and it's not like we're "stocked" on the Twins now as it is. I realize the Gibson injury was partially to blame with that, but injury issues were what led him to fall to us in the first place. You need to stockpile power arms more than any other asset because the majority of them will (a) get hurt or (B) run into some crippling problem with their control that prevents them from being effective MLB'ers. Still, swing and miss on a power arm and you may end up with a reliever. When you top-end goal is to draft guys who "may become Juan Pierre" (Ben Revere), you may end up with nothing.

#13 John Bonnes

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:51 AM

It'll be interesting to see if the Twins target a college pitcher with that #2 pick to remedy that situation. It would certainly make sense, not just because they're short on pitching prospects, but also because grabbing a college pitcher would mean his MLB ETA is corresponding with a lot of these other names.

#14 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 12:26 PM

However, if they take Giolito with the #2 pick, he'll give the Twins a pitcher in the Top 100 prospect lists for 3-5 years. If they take Appel, he may only be a Top 100 prospect for the next 2-3.

#15 Steve Lein

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 12:32 PM

Ya, I'd classify guys like Brian Buscher as "warm bodies", nothing else. They will contribute what they can if ever needed, but will never be a MLB mainstay. I could care less about those guys, as every team in the league has them. I want guys who will claim a roster spot for good. Chris Parmelee will not be Justin Morneau 2.0. If he can hit .275/.340/.450 over his career in the majors, which is pretty much Jason Kubel, I'd be happy. But I don't think he's quite a "Kubel"-type either. Either way, if he's the 1B, that's average at best production for the position. Which is nowhere near what Justin Morneau has done. And John, I've talked that scenario about drafting a college pitcher with Seth and others before, I see it the same as you, they need that pitching talent As Soon As Possible. If the pick has to be Giolito, I'll take it, but that basically means over Joe Mauer's Prime, the Twins will have NEVER had an ACE pitcher to compliment him, which is my biggest problem with the Twins lack of interest in finding that "ace" at whatever cost.
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#16 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 12:34 PM

It'll be interesting to see if the Twins target a college pitcher with that #2 pick to remedy that situation. It would certainly make sense, not just because they're short on pitching prospects, but also because grabbing a college pitcher would mean his MLB ETA is corresponding with a lot of these other names.


Hopefully they draft the best player available through at least round 2. This system needs more premium talent and fewer safe, #3 starters and back end bullpen types. Even if the 2nd best player is yet another outfielder (Buxton), I'd rather they take him than reach for need as there's no guarantee that all of Benson, Hicks, Arcia, etc actually develop into useful players.

#17 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 12:37 PM

However, if they take Giolito with the #2 pick, he'll give the Twins a pitcher in the Top 100 prospect lists for 3-5 years. If they take Appel, he may only be a Top 100 prospect for the next 2-3.


Actually I've read quite a few scouting reports that make me believe that Appel is not all that much further along than Giolito in terms of development. It's not like he's proven much in College with the mediocre numbers he's posted. I'm not convinced the ETA would be all that different

#18 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 12:38 PM

I agree with you twinkiesfan11:

Hopefully they draft the best player available through at least round 2.


#19 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 01:59 PM

However, if they take Giolito with the #2 pick, he'll give the Twins a pitcher in the Top 100 prospect lists for 3-5 years. If they take Appel, he may only be a Top 100 prospect for the next 2-3.


Assuming he's there and that nothing changes over the next 3 months, I think Giolito is probably the guy they should take. He might be a bit further off, but works in the mid 90s and can throw 99 with a fluid, repeatable motion. I'd much rather go for a controllable staff ace then a guy like Appel who has the higher floor but lower ceiling.