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Bowden - Hitters Who Could Be Dealt

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#1 jay

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 06:56 AM

http://insider.espn....ce/post?id=9629

On a list of 21 names, 3 Twins made it:

Josh Willingham | LF | Minnesota Twins

Another outfielder who makes sense in Cincinnati, and the Reds even have a perfect late-inning defensive replacement in Chris Heisey. Willingham would really lengthen their lineup and give them a much-needed right-handed bat.

Chance of being traded: 50 percent
Possible fits: Reds, Royals, Red Sox, Orioles

Kendrys Morales | DH | Minnesota Twins

The Twins believed they were contenders when they signed Morales a few weeks ago, but by the end of July, they might realize they’re still a year or two away, and trading Morales for a midlevel prospect could be the most prudent move. A reunion with the Mariners would make sense if Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero don't start hitting.

Chance of being traded: 25 percent
Possible fits: Mariners, Rangers

Kurt Suzuki | C | Minnesota Twins

He has had a solid year on offense and defense and will be the first name brought up if any contender loses a catcher to injury.

Chance of being traded: 25 percent
Possible fits: Depends on injuries

Any other potential fits stand out for these guys? How close is he on the 'chance of being traded'?

Fun to note that former-Twin Mikey "Baseball" Cuddyer is also listed as a prime target for the Reds if he can get healthy.

#2 tobi0040

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 07:23 AM

I would welcome Josh and Kendrys. Given the lack of catcher depth behind Suzuki, I think giving him another year or two might be the best move. It is clear we don't trust Pinto to be the guy and this is usually a position that is pretty lean in free agency. While we could trade Suzuki and then sign him as a free agent next off-season, you just don't see that happen very often.

#3 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 07:39 AM

I'm ok with the team trading those three (and I'd listen on offers for Perkins if someone wants to really overpay). A team like Atlanta could use a lot more offense but I'm not sure if our guys fit. They'd certainly trade BJ Upton straight up for Aaron Hicks at this point but, unless they think Justin could move into center there really isn't room for Willingham in their outfield. St Louis could be a fit. Orioles might need Suzuki with Weiters out. They have some decent prospects to get it done, too.

#4 jokin

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:02 AM

I'm ok with the team trading those three (and I'd listen on offers for Perkins if someone wants to really overpay). A team like Atlanta could use a lot more offense but I'm not sure if our guys fit. They'd certainly trade BJ Upton straight up for Aaron Hicks at this point but, unless they think Justin could move into center there really isn't room for Willingham in their outfield. St Louis could be a fit. Orioles might need Suzuki with Weiters out. They have some decent prospects to get it done, too.



Cards desperately need arms, too. There's a deal waiting to be done with both Baltimore and St Louis.

#5 amjgt

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:06 AM

I'd trade Suzuki to the O's for Hunter Harvey :)

#6 DJL44

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:13 AM

The Rangers are selling so I doubt they trade for Morales. I don't think the Twins are going to get much more than salary relief. Trade all of them plus Correia, Burton and Duensing.

#7 tobi0040

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:17 AM

I'm ok with the team trading those three (and I'd listen on offers for Perkins if someone wants to really overpay). A team like Atlanta could use a lot more offense but I'm not sure if our guys fit. They'd certainly trade BJ Upton straight up for Aaron Hicks at this point but, unless they think Justin could move into center there really isn't room for Willingham in their outfield. St Louis could be a fit. Orioles might need Suzuki with Weiters out. They have some decent prospects to get it done, too.


This is what scares me, a look at free agent catchers next year. Odds are 3-4 of these guys don't hit the market. AJ took less money to not sign here last year. So you may have 5-8 teams chasing 2-3 35 year old that aren't any good.

On the 40 man we have Fryer, Suzuki, and Pinto. Outside of those guys, you have Rohlfing at AAA. At AA you have Koch, Rodriguez, and Knudson.

While we can sit here and say Pinto would not be the end of the world next year, I think the reality is we could end up in a situation where we have a catcher hitting .200 with no power because he is the best defensive catcher, a la a Drew Butera like situation in 2011. Fryer is the likely guy to play the Butera role next year.

We are not likely going to get a top prospect in return for a Suzuki rental and we could be good in 2015. So I think the risks here outweigh the benefits.

http://www.spotrac.c...ts/mlb/catcher/

#8 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:17 AM

Cards desperately need arms, too. There's a deal waiting to be done with both Baltimore and St Louis.

Now they just have to convince St Louis to give up Tavares for Perkins ...

More seriously, I was a bit surprised on how iffy the Cards pitching has been. They certainly could use another solid arm or two in both the pen and the rotation. Unfortunately, we don't have a lot of that to move.

#9 DJL44

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:38 AM

We are not likely going to get a top prospect in return for a Suzuki rental and we could be good in 2015. So I think the risks here outweigh the benefits.


Suzuki isn't signed for 2015. Unless you think the Twins should give him a qualifying offer of $15M they HAVE to consider trading him.

#10 jokin

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:44 AM

Now they just have to convince St Louis to give up Tavares for Perkins ...

More seriously, I was a bit surprised on how iffy the Cards pitching has been. They certainly could use another solid arm or two in both the pen and the rotation. Unfortunately, we don't have a lot of that to move.


Why not? All of these young arms that are "blocked" in Rochester and New Britain. And we have an expiring contract with Correia.

#11 jokin

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:49 AM

This is what scares me, a look at free agent catchers next year. Odds are 3-4 of these guys don't hit the market. AJ took less money to not sign here last year. So you may have 5-8 teams chasing 2-3 35 year old that aren't any good.

On the 40 man we have Fryer, Suzuki, and Pinto. Outside of those guys, you have Rohlfing at AAA. At AA you have Koch, Rodriguez, and Knudson.

While we can sit here and say Pinto would not be the end of the world next year, I think the reality is we could end up in a situation where we have a catcher hitting .200 with no power because he is the best defensive catcher, a la a Drew Butera like situation in 2011. Fryer is the likely guy to play the Butera role next year.

We are not likely going to get a top prospect in return for a Suzuki rental and we could be good in 2015. So I think the risks here outweigh the benefits.

http://www.spotrac.c...ts/mlb/catcher/


Turner has a very decent shot at starting out, or soon after, at AA next year. We may be talking about the heir apparent being up by next summer- the Twins could probably live with Pinto/Hermann/Fryer until then.

#12 tobi0040

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:51 AM

Suzuki isn't signed for 2015. Unless you think the Twins should give him a qualifying offer of $15M they HAVE to consider trading him.


I think the best option is re-signing Kurt right now. Give him $3.5M next year. An option the following year. My guess is he takes that. Given what we have internally and what the market looks like, that is the best option IMO. Now if he does not sign an extension, I completely agree about trading him.

#13 whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:52 AM

Suzuki isn't signed for 2015. Unless you think the Twins should give him a qualifying offer of $15M they HAVE to consider trading him.


They can extend him in mid-season. Or they can get the ball rolling with him and his agent on a new contract to be signed after the season. Suzuki's making like $3M this year, and even with a good season he's not going to have the illusion that he should make $15M per year in his next contract, so I really doubt that there's any hardball to be played with the qualifying offer.

#14 kdrupp09

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:54 AM

Suzuki isn't signed for 2015. Unless you think the Twins should give him a qualifying offer of $15M they HAVE to consider trading him.


Unless the Twins are absolutely certain that Pinto is going to be the everyday starter next year, which at this point I don't the FO is even close to. I think you quietly offer Suzuki a one year extension with a modest raise for his performance so far this year, so there is some stability, especially with how well he and Hughes have worked together so far. Having Suzuki here to help keep Hughes comfortable is an intangible that doesn't show up necessarily on the stat sheet, but is something to definitely be considered when considering trading Suzuki.

#15 tobi0040

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:56 AM

Turner has a very decent shot at starting out, or soon after, at AA next year. We may be talking about the heir apparent being up by next summer- the Twins could probably live with Pinto/Hermann/Fryer until then.


While we both may think Pinto or Turner could play catcher and we may get good production out of the position and the world would not end, we can't rely on Gardy accepting anything less than a great receiver or a "veteran". 12 months ago we all thought Pinto was the guy and he barely played catcher once a week.

#16 tobi0040

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 08:58 AM

Unless the Twins are absolutely certain that Pinto is going to be the everyday starter next year, which at this point I don't the FO is even close to. I think you quietly offer Suzuki a one year extension with a modest raise for his performance so far this year, so there is some stability, especially with how well he and Hughes have worked together so far. Having Suzuki here to help keep Hughes comfortable is an intangible that doesn't show up necessarily on the stat sheet, but is something to definitely be considered when considering trading Suzuki.


Completely agree. Offer the guy $3.5M next year and an option for $3.5M the following with a $500K buyout. He gets $4M guaranteed and will likely take that. That isn't breaking the bank and we guarantee we don't have a huge whole there next year. Worst case, he splits time with a young guy and they learn from him, which isnt' the end of the world.

#17 Kirby_Waved_At_Me

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 09:13 AM

The Twins will not be giving a QO to Suzuki - He'd sign a three year deal for the same amount as a 1 yr QO. It's a good point, though, now that Suzuki is showing what he brings to the team, the Twins will most likely be considering offering him another contract instead of trading him. They will base this on whether they think Pinto will be the everyday catcher in 2015.
My guess is that they still think Pinto isn't ready to be the starter, so I think they will at least be looking for one more year for Suzuki. The other potential free agents don't look like an improvement over what's currently on the roster.

Hammer and Morales should definitely be available - as well as anybody else on the roster (for the right return). The list of guys in the organization that should be untouchable is pretty short - Sano, Buxton, May, Meyer, Gibson, Hughes, Perkins, and Dozier(maybe). The guys drafted this year and last year should also be untouchable (don't think the Twins can trade any 2014 picks anyway). Anyone else is worth listening to other team's offers.

The only reason to keep Suzuki is that he's worth more to the team next year than anyone the Twins currently have or are likely to add via free agency.

#18 mike wants wins

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 09:15 AM

Perkins should not be untouchable imo. Dozier is a tough call, but I'd probably keep him. He should still be valuable over the next 3-5 years. Other than that, I agree with your statements.
Lighten up Francis....

#19 jorgenswest

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 09:28 AM

It would be a mistake to believe Suzuki will perform well in 2015-2016. Extending him multiyear based on 1/2 a season would be foolish. They need to look at 3-5 years to project the next few years. No one would project 2015-2016 based on 1/2 of 2014.

They need to expect batting averages below .250 with little power. They need to expect more difficulty throwing out runners and framing pitches. He needs to be signed one year at a time so that they can get out of the contract without long term implications. That has to happen in the winter. They aren't going to get him on a one year deal in season.

#20 mike wants wins

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 09:39 AM

I can't believe I am about to type this.....but given their actions with Pinto, I think they should sign Suzuki to at least one more year, but no more than 2.
Lighten up Francis....

#21 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 09:44 AM

Why not? All of these young arms that are "blocked" in Rochester and New Britain. And we have an expiring contract with Correia.

They can move Correia but Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco figure into the future and won't be moved. Pino/Deduno are blocking May, who should be up at this point, but have no trade value. Correia has a bit of trade value and I do think he gets moved at some point but he's not going to bring back anything huge. Perkins is the only pitching asset we have that can bring back real value.

#22 Kirby_Waved_At_Me

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 09:51 AM

I bet Casey Fien could get a decent mid-level prospect in a trade. And there's Duensing and Thielbar, somoene might overrate a lefty arm.

#23 Willihammer

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 09:54 AM

Who can we get? That is what we should be asking IMO.

Any catchers or CFers? Cubs? Rangers? Rays?

#24 jokin

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 09:54 AM

They can move Correia but Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco figure into the future and won't be moved. Pino/Deduno are blocking May, who should be up at this point, but have no trade value. Correia has a bit of trade value and I do think he gets moved at some point but he's not going to bring back anything huge. Perkins is the only pitching asset we have that can bring back real value.


I don't think anyone should be ruled out, save Hughes.

#25 jokin

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 10:01 AM

I can't believe I am about to type this.....but given their actions with Pinto, I think they should sign Suzuki to at least one more year, but no more than 2.


This is my one exception to my sell-high rule, as well. But given Ryan's ability to trade catchers for value-in-kind, he should be able to get a decent return from someone like Baltimore. If Zuke really likes it here, as appears to be the case, plus knowing he'd have assurances of first shot at a full-time gig for the next 1-2 years, he'd definitely listen to the Twins first in the offseason when he's a FA again.

#26 Brandon

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 10:10 AM

I think you guys are underestimating Suzuki's value on the Free Agent market. He is hitting similar to Mauer did with close to a .400OBP and .400Slg%. I can see him getting a 1 or 2 year possibly a 3rd option deal in the 5 - 8 million per season range for his offense this year. 5 -6 million is a given and 7 or 8 is if someone needs a catcher real bad and is trying to get him. while Suzuki doesn't have the history of hitting like this, he did make a change while with Oakland and finished last year on a high note and carried it into this season so he is starting to develop a track record and he is durable. He has a lot of value so 3.5 million per year is way too low. He may even get a 10 million for a season offer but that is starting to get a little high for me.

#27 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 10:13 AM

I think whatever happens this year, the Twins need to clean house next year, so deal as many of these guys as you can now. Morales if you can get anything (he looks like a softball player). Certainly any of the bullpen guys though there's no way they trade Perk. I've started to really like Willingham but I don't see him coming back, so him too.

Edited by ChiTownTwinsFan, 27 June 2014 - 12:11 PM.
Not a manager discussion


#28 tobi0040

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 10:14 AM

It would be a mistake to believe Suzuki will perform well in 2015-2016. Extending him multiyear based on 1/2 a season would be foolish. They need to look at 3-5 years to project the next few years. No one would project 2015-2016 based on 1/2 of 2014.

They need to expect batting averages below .250 with little power. They need to expect more difficulty throwing out runners and framing pitches. He needs to be signed one year at a time so that they can get out of the contract without long term implications. That has to happen in the winter. They aren't going to get him on a one year deal in season.


I don't expect the same bat, but given the other options he may be the best. Russell Martin and AJ are the only sure-fire better options and neither is a lock to sign here.

#29 tobi0040

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 10:21 AM

I think you guys are underestimating Suzuki's value on the Free Agent market. He is hitting similar to Mauer did with close to a .400OBP and .400Slg%. I can see him getting a 1 or 2 year possibly a 3rd option deal in the 5 - 8 million per season range for his offense this year. 5 -6 million is a given and 7 or 8 is if someone needs a catcher real bad and is trying to get him. while Suzuki doesn't have the history of hitting like this, he did make a change while with Oakland and finished last year on a high note and carried it into this season so he is starting to develop a track record and he is durable. He has a lot of value so 3.5 million per year is way too low. He may even get a 10 million for a season offer but that is starting to get a little high for me.


I maybe low, you seem a bit high. Maybe somewhere in the middle.

#30 cmathewson

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 10:22 AM

As usual, it depends on the return and where the team is in the standings in mid-July. I hope they are contending by then. They have the horses to get there. If they are 7-10 games out of the wild card after the All Star Game, I could see dealing the first two. I'm with Tobi on keeping Suzuki and trying to extend him. With so many young pitchers coming up, I want him calling games next year.
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