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After several tough losses

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#1 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:35 AM

The Twins are now sitting at their pythag expected record. 32-36 and a .471 winning percentage. Over a 162 game season, that's a 76 win pace.

Definitely an improvement and better than many of us expected. With additions to the rotation almost certainly on the way, do you expect the Twins to finish over or under 76 games?

I'll play the optimist card and say over by 1-3 games.

#2 Kirby_Waved_At_Me

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:39 AM

I'm holding out hope for a .500 season, so I will say over.

Fingers crossed for more addition by subtraction in the rotation and the bullpen, and the health of the hitters to improve and maintain through the rest of the year.

#3 mike wants wins

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:45 AM

I'm going exactly right on 76. :)

Mauer is showing no progress, and I have my doubts about some of the hot hitters (and there appears to be no help in the minors for hitting this year). I do think the pitching can get a bit better, though. So, less runs scored, but less rund given up, about where they are now.
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#4 gunnarthor

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:57 AM

A final record of 76-86 sounds about right. Nice improvement over last year.

#5 JB_Iowa

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 08:04 AM

Under. 73-89. Just missing another 90 loss season.

#6 Beezer07

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 08:14 AM

I'm gonna go right at 73 games. I see nothing from this team that would lead me to believe they can go on a long winning streak or win 15 of 20. On the flip side, this team is good enough that a long losing streak seems impossible, as does losing 15 of 20. Feels like they'll be right around .500 all season.

#7 Seth Stohs

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 08:20 AM

I said 75 wins at the beginning of the season, and I'd happily be wrong if that number is higher. I think that would be a nice showing for this season.

#8 iTwins

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 08:20 AM

This team baffles me at times. They show flashes of being able to run off a long streak of wins, then they revert to the Twins of 2011-2013 and simply look pathetic. The bonus is they've been able to play Jekyll & Hyde almost evenly this season. Assuming they don't hit a tailspin like they have during each of the last three seasons, I'll still shoot over (78-81 wins) but I'm not nearly as comfortable saying that as I have been.

Edited by iTwins, 17 June 2014 - 09:09 AM.


#9 Rosterman

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 08:31 AM

Well, if they could eliminate offensive weaknesses and field the team they want, and I also often question Gardy's lineup construction.

Santana has fallen nicely into the leadoff position for now.

Arcia has come abck to earth. What gives here.

Where do you really bat Dozier...5th, 7th?

What is going on with Mauer.

Suddenly the Twins have a leadoff batter, but not faring well in the #2 and #3 spots, with the #9 hitter hitting up a storm. What gives.

The starting pitching hs to get consistent. The 5th spot in the rotation should now be a rotation to try out the future. Bring them up and send them down. Start with Pino. Follow with Johnson. Look at May.

Open up a bullpen spot for Darnell orAchter or try out Aaron Thompson. You still have Tonkin and Oliveros and Guerra and Iberra in the wings.
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#10 cmb0252

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 08:40 AM

Under. 73-89. Just missing another 90 loss season.


Unless they make a few moves or stay incredibly healthy for the rest of the year, this is where I peg them.

#11 glanzer

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 08:53 AM

I would say under. Let's not forget the 2013 team had the EXACT SAME record of 32-36 through 68 games before going 34-60 the rest of the way. My guess is 70-92.

#12 Kirby_Waved_At_Me

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 08:55 AM

We keep hearing that this time is different, that the team is better this year than the last three years, and I still believe that to be a true statement.

I just wonder when that true statement will be reflected in the standings.

#13 jorgenswest

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 09:19 AM

While 76 wins is an improvement in number, it doesn't mean the team has improved going forward. It is not enough wins to continue playing the decline phase players to the end of the season.

Improving...

Hughes looks to be a big plus.
Gibson looks like he can be at least a number 4.
Dozier continues his second half of last year.
Escobar may be a starting SS.
Plouffe looks more consistent and better with the glove.

However...

Mauer may be a big burden.
The bullpen is showing signs of decline.
Willingham, Morales and Suzuki will have played key roles getting to 76 but all are becoming free agents. Even if resigned, there performance should be expected to decline.

In order to be an improved team going into 2015, the Twins really need to invest in more of the future. That can still happen starting August 1 if they become sellers.

They need to continue playing Arcia regularly.
They need to play Escobar at SS regularly.
Pinto needs the majority of starts at catcher.
Hicks needs to play well in AAA and be a regular upon return
Meyer and May need to get 10 starts each.
They need to get some young arms innings in the bullpen.
They need to give a September call up to Rosario and Vargas.

Making that shift for the last two months may mean that they win 72 instead of 76. They will be better off for it next year and hopefully acquire some minor league depth in the process.

#14 jokin

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 09:39 AM

Under. 73-89. Just missing another 90 loss season.


Optimistically, before the season started, I predicted the Twins had made just enough upgrades and had enough help on the way to improve to the point of winning somewhere in the range of 70-74 wins- but still a bat and a starting pitcher short of becoming a fringe contender. Even though they now have the bat, and even though the vibe and character on this team for competing has definitely changed versus the last 3 years, I'm regrettably sticking with my prediction (perhaps now at the higher end of that range), until and unless the Twins prove they get a real shot in the arm from the pitching call-ups and/or another outside player deal.

#15 Beezer07

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 09:55 AM

Comparing last year's record and this year's record at this point in time is only helpful insofar as you look at the schedules played thus far. It's still early enough in the season that the dumb way MLB does scheduling has an impact on the standings.

#16 TRex

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 11:32 AM

At one point I was getting really optimistic about playing meaningful games in September because the second half schedule looked so favorable, but with all the parity this year who knows what will happen

Of the 66 total games after the All-Star break, 43 are against Central Division foes

Chicago-11
Cleveland-12
Detroit-10
Kansas City-10

For inter league games, we get San Diego and Arizona at home for 2 and 3 games, respectively.


Tampa bay-3
Oakland-4
Houston 3
Baltimore-4
LA Angels-4

#17 scottz

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 12:53 PM

At the beginning of the year, I said I would take the under at 72.5 wins. I'll stick with that at the top end (72-90) and keep pulling for them the rest of the way to hit the over and then some.

#18 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 04:40 PM

As guys from AAA get moved in the starting rotation and bullpen spots, I forsee some significant troubles as they get their feet wet at the MLB level. I don't think this team can win 76 games, but like Seth, I'd be happy to be wrong.

73-75 wins makes 2014 a success. The real question is will this team, like the Twins of the past couple seasons, tank horrendously in September when they are clearly out of the race?

#19 DocBauer

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:14 PM

While 76 wins is an improvement in number, it doesn't mean the team has improved going forward. It is not enough wins to continue playing the decline phase players to the end of the season.

Improving...

Hughes looks to be a big plus.
Gibson looks like he can be at least a number 4.
Dozier continues his second half of last year.
Escobar may be a starting SS.
Plouffe looks more consistent and better with the glove.

However...

Mauer may be a big burden.
The bullpen is showing signs of decline.
Willingham, Morales and Suzuki will have played key roles getting to 76 but all are becoming free agents. Even if resigned, there performance should be expected to decline.

In order to be an improved team going into 2015, the Twins really need to invest in more of the future. That can still happen starting August 1 if they become sellers.

They need to continue playing Arcia regularly.
They need to play Escobar at SS regularly.
Pinto needs the majority of starts at catcher.
Hicks needs to play well in AAA and be a regular upon return
Meyer and May need to get 10 starts each.
They need to get some young arms innings in the bullpen.
They need to give a September call up to Rosario and Vargas.

Making that shift for the last two months may mean that they win 72 instead of 76. They will be better off for it next year and hopefully acquire some minor league depth in the process.


Really great post Jorgen!

i think you just about nailed my thoughts.

I'm still on the .500 wagon as I feel the Twins are really close, a little more day to day consistency, one more SP to step up, and a little tweaking of the pen could lead us there. And I think this might be one of those good, fun Septembers where some youngsters give a lift, vs a bunch of nobodies filling in.

Just a couple thoughts.

Dont feel Mauer will be a burden next season. Hope he still turns it around second half. I just think its a big change and maybe some after affects from last season.
I'd love to sign Morales. Gives Vargas and others time.
We need Willingham, healthy, on a 1 year, or another FA.
Suzuki for another year is a good idea, despite regression, to partner Pinto.
Hoping Soriano gets a shot in September as a bridge player, but another FA short term can only help depth and options.
Not sure Meyer will get those 10 starts. Doesn't mean he can't get a couple, along with some pen innings.

Im actually more excited for the second half of the season.

#20 70charger

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:19 PM

As guys from AAA get moved in the starting rotation and bullpen spots, I forsee some significant troubles as they get their feet wet at the MLB level. I don't think this team can win 76 games, but like Seth, I'd be happy to be wrong.

73-75 wins makes 2014 a success. The real question is will this team, like the Twins of the past couple seasons, tank horrendously in September when they are clearly out of the race?


I think you're right that we may lose a few more games getting the rookies some experience, but I won't care about that. I'll just be happy to see them pitch.

I also don't think they'll collapse. Remember that last year, about the only potent bat they had in the lineup was Mauer, and he went down the last, what?, 6 to 8 weeks of the season. This year, Mauer isn't hitting like Mauer (I still maintain that there are lingering effects of the concussion and time off!) and yet the Twins have looked better than last year. Barring the loss of Dozier to injury, e.g., or the fire sale of Willingham, Morales, Suzuki, etc., I just don't see as much of a chance to plummet.

#21 beckmt

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:30 PM

I think we should do the fire sale and expect to be between 70-72 wins. You will gain nothing by playing the decline players and getting to 76 wins. Call up the kids in the next two months and lets see what they have. That would lead to hope for 2016.

#22 notoriousgod71

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:31 PM

Under. This team has completely collapsed following the all-star break three straight years after showing "improvement" during the first couple months.

#23 Willihammer

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 10:55 AM

Relief totals from the past 5 games:

[TABLE="width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 517"]
[TR]
[TD]Relievers[/TD]
[TD]IP[/TD]
[TD]H[/TD]
[TD]ER[/TD]
[TD]ERA[/TD]
[TD]BB[/TD]
[TD]K[/TD]
[TD]HR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Burton[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duensing[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fien[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Guerrier[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.70[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swarzak[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.27[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thielbar[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.50[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]total[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]average[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.57[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.91[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Who's missing?

That would be the Twins best reliever.

Gardy's gotta find a way to get Perk into close games.

#24 Kirby_Waved_At_Me

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:07 AM

I'm guessing he would have pitched yesterday (at least) had he not been ill.

#25 mike wants wins

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:08 AM

Not sure, but they need to get the AAA guys up here to learn about them, unlike the last few years, imo.

#26 Shane Wahl

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:25 AM

The Twins will win 77 games this year.

The order, right now, should be: Santana, Escobar, Mauer, Dozier, Willingham, Morales, Arcia, Suzuki, Fuld

#27 Willihammer

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:26 AM

I'm guessing he would have pitched yesterday (at least) had he not been ill.


Fair enough. And actually, looking back at the game logs, the relief really wasn't that bad, aside from Fien (who I like as much as Perk). Take Swarzak's mopup appearance in DET out of the sample and they've been pretty good.

I still think Perk should never sit even 4 games in a row though.

#28 Kirby_Waved_At_Me

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:34 AM

Fair enough. And actually, looking back at the game logs, the relief really wasn't that bad, aside from Fien (who I like as much as Perk). Take Swarzak's mopup appearance in DET out of the sample and they've been pretty good.

I still think Perk should never sit even 4 games in a row though.

Yeah - I agree - Perkins is the best bullpen arm the Twins have, he should be used more often than just the classic save situation.

#29 Mike Frasier Law

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:53 AM

I pegged them for 71 wins before the season started. I'll take the over, and that's assuming (and hoping for) the fire sale. The Twins were pegged to have the toughest schedule to start the season (not sure how that compares to prior years), and survived it. Some of it was riding some really lucky and unexpected hot streaks, and some was legitimate, sustainable performances. I don't think I need to name names.

The Twins are not going to make the playoffs. Before the season started, I hoped Willingham and Correia would start out hot, but the Twins would tank, so we could and would trade them. The start to the season was the exact opposite, but it looks like that's what's happening now. Subtract Correia, Willingham, Morales, and Florimon from the team and you don't lose much - maybe 2 wins. But with them gone, you have May, more Arcia and Escobar, and who knows who else - maybe Rosario. Better for the future certainly, and it may not hurt 2014 too much.

#30 Rosterman

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:55 AM

It's such a tough call. The starters HAVE to improve from season's beginning. But what is causing the lapse in hitting. I say lineup construction overall. Should Dozier be batting second, or should it be Suzucki or Escobar. Who bats in front or behind each other to draw better pitches. What IS going on with Mauer?
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