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updating the roster to contend

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#1 Chance

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 05:52 PM

The Morales signing indicates the Twins want to contend. If this is their objective then other changes need to be made. The following are my suggestions. They are a mix of what I want while also considering the reality of what the Twins might do.

Roster moves:
1. Morales is added and Kubel is released
2. When Fuld comes back Parmelee is sent back to AAA (if he clears waivers)

Lineup/playing time
1. Santana remains in centerfield as an everyday player and bats leadoff
2. Dozier bats 2nd and stays at 2B
3. Mauer status quo
4. Willingham stays in LF everyday and bats cleanup
5. Morales DHs batting 5th
6. Arcia (when healthy) bats 6th and plays
7. Plouffe keeps doing what he has been
8. Suzuki and Pinto share time catching
9. Escobar bats last and plays everyday at short

Other position players
-Hicks relieves Santana and Arcia a day or 2 a week. It's not ideal for him to stay in the majors but there really isn't anyone else who needs to come up in AAA and Hicks has slowly been getting better.
-Fuld is used primarily as a pinch runner or defensive replacement for Willingham. Shouldn't really get many (any) starts.
-Nunez gives Plouffe and Escobar days off when They need them.

Rotation
1. Correia is dealt or placed on waivers and Johnson is recalled. I know it is not sexy and we all (yes including me) would like to see May or Meyer up first but Johnson is the right decision. To start with.

Bullpen
1. Burton is released/traded/placed on waivers and replaced by Achter.
2. Guerrier is gone with Tonkin taking his place

More moves would happen as things change but these could all happen in the next week or 2.

Thoughts? Other ideas?

#2 stringer bell

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 06:37 PM

I think Hicks (who has an option remaining) goes down when Morales is ready. Fuld should be ready in a week, and I would guess Morales will take a little longer. Kubel serves no real purpose with Morales on the horizon and Parmelee a better defender and also able to play first base. When Fuld comes back, Kubel goes, creating a 40-man spot for Morales.

#3 pierre75275

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 06:50 PM

I agree with all of it except Tonkin. I bring up Oliverios from AA or pressly. But i could live with Tonkin

#4 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 06:54 PM

The Morales signing indicates the Twins want to contend. (YES) If this is their objective then other changes need to be made (YES). The following are my suggestions. They are a mix of what I want while also considering the reality of what the Twins might do.

Roster moves:
1. Morales is added and Kubel is released (YES)
2. When Fuld comes back Parmelee is sent back to AAA (if he clears waivers) (YES)

Lineup/playing time
1. Santana remains in centerfield as an everyday player and bats leadoff (No, no, no no, no! You said so yourself that Hicks is slowly improving. Let him continue to play and continue to improve. he's 24 and gets on base 34% of the time. bat him near the bottom of the order, but let him play everyday unless he proves he cant, at which point send him to AAA. I don't believe this is the REAL Santana. Ride Danny until his bat falls off, but he needs time at SS this season and Ecobar has a firm grasp on that spot at the MLB level. What's the use in developing Santana to be a CF with Buxton coming up?)
2. Dozier bats 2nd and stays at 2B (I like moving Dozier out of the leadoff spot, maybe even putting Mauer in front of him. Heck, even Escobar!)
3. Mauer (I like him in the 2 spot, Escobar (Santana, when he's playing) leading off, Dozier at 3)
4. Willingham stays in LF everyday and bats cleanup (YES)
5. Morales DHs batting 5th (No, Arcia at 5, let Morales prove he can still hit before you put him ahead of Ozzie)
6. Arcia (when healthy) bats 6th and plays (No, 5th)
7. Plouffe keeps doing what he has been (YES)
8. Suzuki and Pinto share time catching (YES, with more opportunities for Pinito to catch since he is losing DH days to Morales)
9. Escobar bats last and plays everyday at short (Or bats first, Hicks in the 9 slot.)

Other position players
-Hicks relieves Santana and Arcia a day or 2 a week. It's not ideal for him to stay in the majors but there really isn't anyone else who needs to come up in AAA and Hicks has slowly been getting better. (Hicks is improving. Let him keep working things out at the MLB level. He needs to play more than 2-3 games a week)
-Fuld is used primarily as a pinch runner or defensive replacement for Willingham. Shouldn't really get many (any) starts. (No. Defensive/Runner? let him spell guys in the OF the way a 4th OF should. Let Santana be a pinch runner. He makes a better utility guy and pinch runner/hitter than Fuld ever could).
-Nunez gives Plouffe and Escobar days off when They need them. (YES! Also more room to play Santana here)

#5 JB_Iowa

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 07:00 PM

I like your plan, Paul Pleis.

I do think Willingham is going to need some relief in LF so that gives Fuld some playing time. And I think Nunez has enough versatility that he can get some time at a variety of positions.

#6 kab21

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 07:31 PM

We aren't developing Santana as a CF'er, we are playing the best current option. He also doesn't need to develop much as a SS (his defense is really good), he needs to develop as a hitter. This is currently happening. I expect his BAPIP to correct but I also expect his K rate to go down some.

Willy, Arcia and Morales (and maybe Mauer) all need at least one day off each week.

#7 Hawkeye12

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 08:12 PM

So despite Guerrier's 1.59 ERA over the past four weeks, people still want him gone, no questions asked? The guys been pretty great after his first two appearances.

#8 Chance

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 08:30 PM

Paul-

Hicks is improving. I think the best thing for him is to slowly keep working on improving. Playing a few games a week would be good for him, in my opinion.

I'm in no way saying that Santana will mantain, but until he does fall apart his role shouldn't change. This outline is set on contending not rebuilding. Santana can work on SS if his bat keeps up but Escobar's doesn't.

Arcia is my favorite Twin but until he walks a little more he should bat behind Morales. Morales should mantain his career norms.

#9 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 08:42 PM

So despite Guerrier's 1.59 ERA over the past four weeks, people still want him gone, no questions asked? The guys been pretty great after his first two appearances.


Guerrier feels shaky to me. I'm all for using him for as long as he's useful, though. Hopefully in early innings or mop up.

#10 curt1965

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 11:19 PM

I agree almost 100% with Chance's blog, not so much with Mr. Pleiss' scenario. IMO-
Hicks- don't give up on this youngster. He needs some time at AAA. He's not going to improve at this level. Keep him here until Fuld is ready, then send him to Rochester.
Santana-he should stay until he proves he cannot handle this level. No pinch- runner, for Gods sake! Escobar needs some time off (and I worry he might regress), and he presents problems for the opposition that no other Twin can provide. The argument that Buxton is coming up is not valid: when? and you never have enough good OF's. I don't think Wily is in their plans next year.
Parmalee- gone when Morales is ready (see BA, and O-fer streak)
Burton and Guerrier- gone and SOON. I agree with Achter and Tonkin.

Edited by curt1965, 07 June 2014 - 11:21 PM.


#11 pierre75275

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 05:01 AM

Any way you slice hicks is the third worst hitter that plays outfield. There is no way this team is better with Hicks in AAA and one of Kubel or Parmalee at the major league level. When fuld and morales are on the club, kubel and parmalee shouldnt be.

#12 Chance

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 06:40 AM

Any way you slice hicks is the third worst hitter that plays outfield. There is no way this team is better with Hicks in AAA and one of Kubel or Parmalee at the major league level. When fuld and morales are on the club, kubel and parmalee shouldnt be.


Almost exactly my point. If they Twins mean to contend NOW they need to field the best players they can. I think Hicks can slowly develop at the major league level, but I don't think he should play everyday or even most days. Maybe he can in right field until Arcia is back (which, who knows, could be the next game). Santana shouldn't be messed with until he falls hard back to reality. At that point, if Hicks is the best we have and has still been improving, throw him back in there.

#13 Chance

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 06:48 AM

The reason I included Guerrier was because in a week or 2 his numbers will most likely skyrocket. He can't be trusted in any leverage situations. If you're a contender you shouldn't really have a mop up guy. Achter can strike people out and strand runners. He has done it every step of the way. It's time to see him give it a go in the majors.

I chose Tonkin for the other reliever spot mostly because he has some experience In the majors. I would be happy with any number of the AAA relievers (more likely Darnell). I just don't think Burton should be on the roster because he is STILL being used in the 8th inning instead of Fien.

#14 Sconnie

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 06:51 AM

Any way you slice hicks is the third worst hitter that plays outfield. There is no way this team is better with Hicks in AAA and one of Kubel or Parmalee at the major league level. When fuld and morales are on the club, kubel and parmalee shouldnt be.

I'm not ready to give up on Parms or Hicks yet. Santana has looked respectable at lead off, and hasn't looked overmatched in CF. Yeah he's made rookie mistakes, but no more than Hicks, and hits way better. Not as good of an eye at the plate, but man can he hit.

i think Kubel gets DFA'd for Morales. When Fuld s ready, Hicks goes to AAA to work on his fundamentals in the OF and batting right handed. If Hicksie crushes triple A and grows a cape in the outfield at all three positions, then DFA Parms or send Santana to triple A if Santana struggles.

#15 Thrylos

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 07:04 AM

So despite Guerrier's 1.59 ERA over the past four weeks, people still want him gone, no questions asked? The guys been pretty great after his first two appearances.


ERA?

because of .216 BABIP,

4.39 xFIP, 3 K/9, 9.3 K% suggest replacement level or worse
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#16 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 07:21 AM

I still think this team is more a pretender than a contender, even after the Morales signing, though I'll admit they closer to it than they were. That said, I'm perfectly fine making a run, but it should not be done at the expense of the development of your future core.

1) Morales replaces Kubel
2) Fuld replaces Hicks, who is optioned to AAA.
3) Santana returns to AAA when his bat cools off. Stop gap CF is obtained.
4) Correia is traded or DFAd in favor of May, Darnell, or Johnson.
5) Guerrier and Burton are traded, DFAd, whatever in favor of Tonkin and Achter.

That would probably be the best way for the team to compete. Even then, I'm highly skeptical of the Twins being able to win the division, much less go deep into the playoffs, but I think it would keep people watching into October.

#17 EephusKnuckler

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 10:52 PM

Pinto probably needs to go down to AAA as well. His OBP has been dropping steadily and he just looks lost at the plate lately. He also needs to fix his throw to second because it's become a problem. Probably easier to correct in the minors with every day starts instead of in the bigs with only occasional starts. It'll get him acquainted with some of our future starters too.

Signing Suzuki keeps looking better and better.

#18 The Wise One

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 04:24 AM

ERA?

because of .216 BABIP,

4.39 xFIP, 3 K/9, 9.3 K% suggest replacement level or worse


fip of 2.90. PE score was probably too low for you to want to mention. HR/9 of 0 leads the league for the lowest. Cherry pick stats. Sample sizes for any of these statistics is so small as to render any of them meaningless.
In 10 games this season he has one blown save and no holds, no losses.

#19 jorgenswest

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 06:58 AM

The Twins are using a Guerrier in mostly low leverage situations. While he is not going to hurt them there, I would rather invest those low leverage innings into a younger pitcher like Tonkin.

#20 Gernzy

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 07:13 AM

Besides Correia, Deduno needs to go as well. Or at least go back into the bullpen. He is not helping at all as a starter.
I bent my wookie...

#21 tobi0040

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 07:35 AM

The Morales signing indicates the Twins want to contend. (YES) If this is their objective then other changes need to be made (YES). The following are my suggestions. They are a mix of what I want while also considering the reality of what the Twins might do.

Roster moves:
1. Morales is added and Kubel is released (YES)
2. When Fuld comes back Parmelee is sent back to AAA (if he clears waivers) (YES)

Lineup/playing time
1. Santana remains in centerfield as an everyday player and bats leadoff (No, no, no no, no! You said so yourself that Hicks is slowly improving. Let him continue to play and continue to improve. he's 24 and gets on base 34% of the time. bat him near the bottom of the order, but let him play everyday unless he proves he cant, at which point send him to AAA. I don't believe this is the REAL Santana. Ride Danny until his bat falls off, but he needs time at SS this season and Ecobar has a firm grasp on that spot at the MLB level. What's the use in developing Santana to be a CF with Buxton coming up?)
2. Dozier bats 2nd and stays at 2B (I like moving Dozier out of the leadoff spot, maybe even putting Mauer in front of him. Heck, even Escobar!)
3. Mauer (I like him in the 2 spot, Escobar (Santana, when he's playing) leading off, Dozier at 3)
4. Willingham stays in LF everyday and bats cleanup (YES)
5. Morales DHs batting 5th (No, Arcia at 5, let Morales prove he can still hit before you put him ahead of Ozzie)
6. Arcia (when healthy) bats 6th and plays (No, 5th)
7. Plouffe keeps doing what he has been (YES)
8. Suzuki and Pinto share time catching (YES, with more opportunities for Pinito to catch since he is losing DH days to Morales)
9. Escobar bats last and plays everyday at short (Or bats first, Hicks in the 9 slot.)

Other position players
-Hicks relieves Santana and Arcia a day or 2 a week. It's not ideal for him to stay in the majors but there really isn't anyone else who needs to come up in AAA and Hicks has slowly been getting better. (Hicks is improving. Let him keep working things out at the MLB level. He needs to play more than 2-3 games a week)
-Fuld is used primarily as a pinch runner or defensive replacement for Willingham. Shouldn't really get many (any) starts. (No. Defensive/Runner? let him spell guys in the OF the way a 4th OF should. Let Santana be a pinch runner. He makes a better utility guy and pinch runner/hitter than Fuld ever could).
-Nunez gives Plouffe and Escobar days off when They need them. (YES! Also more room to play Santana here)



Regarding Hicks, I would agree keep him in CF 5 of 7 days or so. He is improving and as you point out, most 9 hitters don't get on base 34% of the time. Santana's BA needs to fall to .320 to have the same OBP as Hicks, so he doesn't walk at all and he is not goign to be a career .320 hitter. I would absolutely not play Hicks 1 or 2 days a week. He needs to be in AAA if that is all he sees the field, especially since he dropped LH batting.

Split some reps for Santana and Escobar at SS and give Santana a few days in CF.

Regarding Kris Johnson. Meyer is the guy that makes us better tomorrow, and five years from now. Johnson has a had a decent two year run here, but he is 29 and those K per 9 numbers of 6-7 per 9 don't project like Meyer. Career Minor numbers, Johsnon 4.15 ERA, 6.4 K per 9. Meyer, 3.00 ERA, 10.5 K per 9. If we are going to spent $8M mid-season for Kendry's Morales and the super 2 deadline is near, the time is now.

Edited by tobi0040, 09 June 2014 - 07:46 AM.


#22 Boom Boom

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 08:47 AM

Deduno needs to be replaced.

He was a decent fallback option for Pelfrey to keep the kids in the minors long enough to delay their service clocks, but that's no longer an issue and the Twins have better options.

#23 spycake

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 08:47 AM

The Twins are using a Guerrier in mostly low leverage situations. While he is not going to hurt them there, I would rather invest those low leverage innings into a younger pitcher like Tonkin.


Actually, I'd rather get a long reliever for that spot. What good is it to eat one inning when there are 4-5 to go? Correia or Deduno back in this spot might make the most sense (and allow us to audition potentially better starters in the rotation while maintaining some fallback options, of course).