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Opening day lineup-2018

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#1 longstrangetrip

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 03:59 PM

I pondered putting this thread in the minor league forum, but decided against it since only 3 of these guys are currently playing for one of our minor league clubs. Drafting Gordon with the first pick makes this game even more fun. This is what I see, assuming everyone stays healthy and sticks at their projected position.

Buxton, CF .310 20 HRs 40 steals
Rosario, 2b .280
Arcia, RF .270 30 HRs 110 RBI
Sano, 3b .270 35 HRs 120 RBI
Pinto, C .290 25 HRs 90 RBI
Vargas, DH .250 25 HRs 70 RBI
Mauer, 1b .280 150 BBs
Walker, LF .260 20 HRs 70 RBI
Gordon, SS .280


Mauer is having a tough season this year, but can still help us out at age 35, albeit in a more realistic spot in the lineup. Maybe only one .300 hitter, but 6 legit 20+ HR guys and lots of runs potential. Gordon, Buxton and Rosario is a speedy trio leading into the power section of the lineup. Dozier, Kepler, Santana, Parmalee and a catcher on the bench.

Realistic? What did I miss?

#2 Ultima Ratio

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 05:57 PM

I've been to the future, and this is what I saw.








:rolleyes:
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#3 oldguy10

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 06:26 PM

And this begs the question - what does the pitching staff look like?

#4 Thrylos

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 06:39 PM

Buxton, CF .310 20 HRs 40 steals
Rosario, 2b .280
Arcia, RF .270 30 HRs 110 RBI
Sano, 3b .270 35 HRs 120 RBI
Pinto, C .290 25 HRs 90 RBI
Vargas, DH .250 25 HRs 70 RBI
Mauer, 1b .280 150 BBs
Walker, LF .260 20 HRs 70 RBI
Gordon, SS .280

Realistic? What did I miss?


Couple of things:

1. Jorge Polanco will likely be either the starting shortstop (or the starting second baseman, but I'd take your assumption), because he is a better prospect than Gordon at this point and more likely to be the SS in 2018.

2. You also assume that players like Escobar, Plouffe, Dozier, (but not Mauer for some reason) will go away. I think that, other than Gordon, the weakest link in there is Walker. Plouffe could make a better OF. So would potentially Harrison and Kepler.

3. Trades and free agent signings happen and will happen.
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#5 longstrangetrip

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 07:09 PM

Couple of things:

1. Jorge Polanco will likely be either the starting shortstop (or the starting second baseman, but I'd take your assumption), because he is a better prospect than Gordon at this point and more likely to be the SS in 2018.

2. You also assume that players like Escobar, Plouffe, Dozier, (but not Mauer for some reason) will go away. I think that, other than Gordon, the weakest link in there is Walker. Plouffe could make a better OF. So would potentially Harrison and Kepler.

3. Trades and free agent signings happen and will happen.


I had Dozier on my bench, but he's currently my favorite player, so I hope he holds onto second. I struggled with dropping Plouffe because I don't think he has reached his pinnacle yet, and I like your idea that he might stay as an outfielder.

Polanco was a problem for me. I like Dozier, Santana and Rosario a lot, and think they are a bit ahead of Jorge right now, and Gordon was a consensus top 10 pick in this year's draft (most experts see him sticking at SS, but the jury's out on Polanco). That's also why I dropped Escobar...just too many better middle infield prospects.

I also agree that walker is the weakest link, and that it's nice to have a guy like Kepler pushing him.

As for Mauer, he plays the game so effortlessly and is improving at 1b, I see him as being a close to .300 hitter for several more years.

#6 lightfoot789

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:47 PM

I also agree that walker is the weakest link, and that it's nice to have a guy like Kepler pushing him.


What makes you believe that either Kepler or Harrison are better outfielders? Walker is faster than both and just because Kepler plays CF doesn't neccesarily make him a better outfielder.

Walker produces so much more than either Harrison or Kepler on a yearly basis. Don't get me wrong - I love both Harrison & Kepler alot. However, all Walker does is lead his leagues in HRs and RBI every year. Until he proves your future projections wrong - I'll take the chosen All Star.

If you're not sure what type of OF Walker is - listen to the games more. He runs and roams his position rather well. Colabello had outstanding minor league numbers and played exceptional in April, but not May (MLB). There is no exact science. But this much I know for sure:
Walker
Avg. 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO OBP SLG
.251 08 00 13 48 104 16 66 .301 .460

Harrison
Avg. 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO OBP SLG
.273 17 01 01 29 76 25 41 .352 .384

Kepler
Avg. 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO OBP SLG
.218 05 04 02 23 53 19 29 .317 .340

Team Statistical Leaders are important, but League Leaders Win more.

Edited by lightfoot789, 06 June 2014 - 08:55 PM.


#7 stringer bell

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:54 PM

It is 3+ years until 2018. Much can and will happen. I seldom see a multi-year starter become a bench player on the same team.

#8 Tibs

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 09:22 PM

Yeah, Kepler needs to start proving he is good sometime soon. However, he is still young. It's hard for me to take Kepler over Walker right now though.
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#9 lightfoot789

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 09:54 PM

It is 3+ years until 2018. Much can and will happen. I seldom see a multi-year starter become a bench player on the same team.


Ricky Weeks on the first place Brewers (benched)
Jon Jay............................Possibly Soon

It happens...........

#10 DocBauer

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 10:51 PM

Actually, I think your lineup is a very sound and well thought out possibility.

Naturally, I have to disagree with it some. Lol

I hope Gordon is as good as advertised, and is a fast rising top 100 prospect like Sano and Buxton, and to a slightly lesser degree, Rosario. Only without any suspensions, major injuries or stupid nagging ones to slow him down. Still, considering youth, I'd say 2018 might be Gordon's impending AAA, potential rookie arrival season. And I'm in agreement with Thrylos that Polanco is likely the established SS at the time. Further, unless there is regression, which I doubt, and further believe there will be continual improvement, I don't see Dozier as a bench player. At 35, as long as health is on his side, I also believe Mauer may still be Mauer at 1B. And I suspect Buxton will pull a Puckett on us. This means he will begin at the top of the order, but slide down to the 3 hole by 2018 as the best pure hitter on the team.

1&2 will be some combination of Rosario, LF, Polanco SS, and Dozier 2B. Hitting, speed and power.
3) Buxton CF
4) Sano 3B
5) Arcia RF
6) Vargas DH
7) Mauer 1B
8) Pinto C
9) whichever of Rosario, Polanco isn't at the top of the order with Dozier.

Walked and/or Ortiz might be very good bench OF's. Escobar might still be a part of this, along with Santana, as reserves. Turner or Herrman might be at back up C.

#11 kab21

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 11:54 PM

If Dozier is still a Twin then he will be a starter. He could be trade bait in 2-3 years considering that the Twins actually have some MI talent in the system now.

I don't think Walker, Harrison and Kepler will be starters. They are talented and could be guys that move up lists but right now none of them are showing that they will make it. Vargas is interesting as a one dimensional slugger though.

#12 bulldozier14

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 12:54 PM

And this begs the question - what does the pitching staff look like?


I'll give it a go:
1. Meyer - Hopefully will up this year. Strikes out a ton of guys and if he can harness he control, he looks like he can be a legitimate ace.
2. Stewart - Might be in his first or second year in the majors in 2018. Hopefully by now he has developed his change and refined his fastball to go with his excellent slider.
3. Thorpe/ Berrios - Berrios has dominated A+ this year as a 20 year old. He has the stuff and is young enough to develop into a top of the rotation arm in the future. Thorpe makes his first start in A- today and will be the youngest guy in his league by more than a year after mowing guys down in short-season ball last year. Exciting things are happening in the Cedar Rapids starting rotation.
4. Berrios/ Thorpe
5. May - May has finally put it all together in AAA this year, and looks like he might realize his potential as a 2/3.

Others to consider:
Gonsalves - Might be the steal of the draft last year in the third round, Gonsalves dominated in short stints in the GCL and Appalachian league last year. Hopefully will join Thorpe and Stewart in a talented Cedar Rapids rotation sooner rather than later.
Gibson - Of course, not all or likely even half of these guys will make it and stick in the rotation. Gibson will be 30 in 2018 and might still be successful.

#13 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 05:02 PM

C - Not Pinto
1B - Joe Mauer, but 2014-like is as optomistic as I'd be
2B - Brian Dozier. He's probably a candidate for quick regression, but I think he'll have established himself between now and then. No reason to give this spot to Rosario.
3B - Sano, dontchaknow
SS - Polanco, I think 2018 starter is very optomisit for Gordon.
OF - Aaron Hicks, Byron Buxton, Arcia. that's right folks, AARON HICKS, he's going to figure it out.
DH - Vargas

Santana probably sticks around as a utility guy, and maybe Escobar too, but I think Santana is a bench guy. i don't think his bat holds up long term. Escobar maybe holds onto SS for a couple more seasons, but I don't think he's around in 2018.

Also, I expect the Twins to be very competetive 2015 (maybe) and 2016 and beyond. They will make moves to bring in talent via FA or trade, so this is all a crap shoot. prospects will break our hearts.