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This team is going to win 85 games.

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#1 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:03 PM

Baring a huge run of injuries I think this team wins at least 85 games and sniffs the playoffs.

Why?
May and/or Meyer coming up is going to make this a rather solid rotation. Hughes is pitching like an ACE, Nolasco has been getting unlucky and should pitch like a number two the rest of the way, DeDuno keeps doing what he does and has solidified himself in being a nice back end of the rotation type guy. Gibson is coming along nicely as well and is showing some flashes.

-Willingham is finally healthy and is hitting like a beast.

-Dozier is only getting better and better.

-Other than Escobar and Kurt there aren't really that many regression candidates on this squad.

-Mauer and Arcia are both going to come on very strong and will end their seasons with 120 OPS+
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#2 adjacent

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:21 PM

I have some optimism, not for the reasons that you state, but for the schedule. The first half of the Twins schedule is really tough, including the next couple of weeks that includes a road trip with series against Boston, Detroit and Toronto (traditionally tough for the Twins and leading the AL East right now). After that it becomes a little bit easier, with a lot more home games and more intra-division games. If the next couple of week are not a total disaster, I am kind of optimistic.

#3 Tibs

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:22 PM

If the offense performs, I think we could make a run. I don't think the other teams in the Central are good besides Detroit, and they went through a bad stretch recently. We have pitchers in the minors that could come up and contribute. It's possible. We'll see what happens.
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#4 Halsey Hall

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:27 PM

That would top my pre-season prediction by 20 games, but it's possible. And it's possible without and rotation changes. Bring up both Meyer and May and it becomes more iffy.

I'm not so sure about Mauer. The SI article on Morneau sheds a lot of light on the concussion subject. I think Joe still has some lingering effects that may take a lot of time to fade away.

But, it's been a season thus far that has been much more enjoyable to watch, and stay on the channel for more than 4 or 5 innings.

#5 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:30 PM

A couple issues with your plan. If Meyer and May come up and perform, there's not room for Hughes, Nolasco, Deduno and Gibson to all keep pitching in the rotation. And I think it's unreasonable to expect Meyer/May to come up and just keep putting up great numbers. There's a learning curve, and with the number of batters May is walking at AAA, I don't expect his numbers to translate as well as Meyer's.

I love the optomism, but I think 75 wins is a good number to hope for. 80 wins would be mind-boggling. 85? That just seems ludacris.

I hope you're right and I'm way way way too conservative. That'd be a lot of fun to watch down the stretch.

#6 drivlikejehu

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:37 PM

I guess next is the prediction they win the World Series this year?

#7 spycake

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:38 PM

Dozier is only getting better and better.


I like me some Dozier, but OPS-wise, he's basically the same this year as the final 4 months of 2013.

I think your take on the rotation is a little optimistic too. Hughes should be a candidate for some regression; Gibson too with his peripherals. Nolasco and his career 94 ERA+ entering the season is hardly a lock for #2 type performance. I'm excited for Meyer and May too, but neither is a can't-miss type guy (especially May) and there could easily be a season-plus transitional period, like Gibson, Baker, Lohse, etc. (Plus the Twins have had some real trouble transitioning starting pitchers to MLB recently.)

I think if they can keep up their current pace (just under .500) for the rest of the season, despite whatever regression or injuries happen, it will be an achievement (and a welcome change from the past 3 years finishes).

#8 spycake

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:44 PM

85? That just seems ludacris.


So 85 wins triggers a Ludacris concert at Target Field?

#9 Beezer07

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:46 PM

This thread confirms it: You people are no fun!

EDIT: Except Spy.

#10 Tibs

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:49 PM

I guess next is the prediction they win the World Series this year?


Yep. I'll start the thread.
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#11 JB_Iowa

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:52 PM

Yep. I'll start the thread.


There's probably an old one somewhere you could just dig up.

#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 03:53 PM

I don't see them winning more than 84 games.

#13 D. Hocking

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:07 PM

I guess next is the prediction they win the World Series this year?


1987, 1991, and 2014 World Champs!

I think hovering around .500 is not out the range of possibility. It is too bad Sano had the TJ, or we could be talking about how he is raking and the bump we will get when he comes up in the second half of the year.

Edited by D. Hocking, 04 June 2014 - 04:16 PM.
No reading comprehension skills.


#14 LaBombo

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:33 PM

On pace for 78 wins, 76 if you pythag it. Sounds about right. That's about 10 fewer losses than 2013, and a team that's in ball games noticeably more often than the 90+loss clubs,

Moreover it's about what you'd expect from a team that brought in a pair of #3-ish starters to replace bad pitchers, but not much else, and has a balance that slightly favors players likely to improve as compared to those likely to decline or regress.

It's also encouraging in light of the loss of value from Mauer with the move to first and his struggles at the plate.

#15 CRArko

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:35 PM

I don't see them winning more than 84 games.


83.75, give or take.
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#16 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:45 PM

So 85 wins triggers a Ludacris concert at Target Field?


I just confirmed with the Twins PR people, yes, if the Twins win 85 games, Luda will be performing this winter at Target Field.

#17 D. Hocking

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:50 PM

I just confirmed with the Twins PR people, yes, if the Twins win 85 games, Luda will be performing this winter at Target Field.


I would have thought they would have tried to get him this October during our World Series run.

#18 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:53 PM

I would have thought they would have tried to get him this October during our World Series run.


Maybe they can get him to sing during the 7th inning stretch of game 1 of the WS, with a concert to follow the game.

#19 CRArko

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 04:54 PM

I would have thought they would have tried to get him this October during our World Series run.


That will be the second coming of Sir Paul.
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#20 Thrylos

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 05:48 PM

Baring a huge run of injuries I think this team wins at least 85 games and sniffs the playoffs.

Why?
May and/or Meyer coming up is going to make this a rather solid rotation. Hughes is pitching like an ACE, Nolasco has been getting unlucky and should pitch like a number two the rest of the way, DeDuno keeps doing what he does and has solidified himself in being a nice back end of the rotation type guy. Gibson is coming along nicely as well and is showing some flashes.

-Willingham is finally healthy and is hitting like a beast.

-Dozier is only getting better and better.

-Other than Escobar and Kurt there aren't really that many regression candidates on this squad.

-Mauer and Arcia are both going to come on very strong and will end their seasons with 120 OPS+


Ok. I'll bite.

So if they don't win 85, are you ready to join the Fire Gardy and Fire Terry bandwagon? Got to be their fault, according to your analysis, no?
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#21 Trevor0333

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 05:49 PM

I don't think it's ridiculous, just a not real likely. I don't think the Tigers are as good as their record & are far from unbeatable. The Sox & Royals will continue to fall off as well. Still a few things need to happen.

Rotation must continue to improve, specifically Nolasco
. May could & should replace Corriea but expecting a major improvement over him from a rookie is not real likely. I still like the idea of May replacing Corriea & if he struggles bring Meyer up to replace him or as a Sept call up to add juice to the pen if May shines.

The bullpen needs to go from good to elite. Pino replacing Guerrier would be a start, as well as replacing Burton with a fireballer like May/Meyer. I don't understand not letting these guys get their feet wet in the BP to gain some confidence ala Santana.

Willingham & Arcia continue providing power. They can't afford another Kubel/Collabello hot start & fade. As solid as Dozier & Plouffe have been, they need Arcia & Hammer providing power to lengthen the lineup.

OF defense must improve. It's nice to be able to roll with Pinto at DH but that also means Hammer is in LF with Arcia in RF. Hicks has the tools but has been very average defensively the roll of AAA infielders manning CF needs to stop. They have the depth to flip a c+ level prospect to find a competent league average CF to platoon with Fuld.

#22 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 05:56 PM

I'm not sure a C+ prospect pulls a league average CF, even if you're just looking for a platoon split. It's going to take more to get a league average guy. maybe you can find replacement leverl for C+, but that's about it.

#23 jokin

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 06:17 PM

I don't think it's ridiculous, just a not real likely. I don't think the Tigers are as good as their record & are far from unbeatable. The Sox & Royals will continue to fall off as well. Still a few things need to happen.

Rotation must continue to improve, specifically Nolasco
. May could & should replace Corriea but expecting a major improvement over him from a rookie is not real likely. I still like the idea of May replacing Corriea & if he struggles bring Meyer up to replace him or as a Sept call up to add juice to the pen if May shines.

The bullpen needs to go from good to elite. Pino replacing Guerrier would be a start, as well as replacing Burton with a fireballer like May/Meyer. I don't understand not letting these guys get their feet wet in the BP to gain some confidence ala Santana.

Willingham & Arcia continue providing power. They can't afford another Kubel/Collabello hot start & fade. As solid as Dozier & Plouffe have been, they need Arcia & Hammer providing power to lengthen the lineup.

OF defense must improve. It's nice to be able to roll with Pinto at DH but that also means Hammer is in LF with Arcia in RF. Hicks has the tools but has been very average defensively the roll of AAA infielders manning CF needs to stop. They have the depth to flip a c+ level prospect to find a competent league average CF to platoon with Fuld.


Meyer is on an innings limit, and assuming he stays healthy and continues in a starter role, would likely be shut down by the end of August

#24 notoriousgod71

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 06:31 PM

I'm not convinced they'll finish above .500 but they are far better than I could have ever imagined and not even for most of the reasons that seemed to be a toss up two months ago.

I started a thread prior to the season asking if this was the worst Twins team of the last four. I said yes, because I didn't see Nolasco and Hughes as much of an upgrade, which has been partly true. I said some of the bullpen guys were due for regression (also partly true), and that the offense was horrible (partly true).

Despite the struggles of Nolasco, Correia, Pelfrey, and Mauer and the injuries to Arcia and Willingham this team has defied all odds to be competitive to this point in the season. It's quite amazing, really.

#25 howeda7

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:11 PM

85 wins is pushing it, but the schedule does get easier after the next couple of weeks. .500 isn't out of the question.

#26 mike wants wins

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:12 PM

So if a rookie cannot be counted on, isn't that Another argument for May and Meyer pitching ten or more games inMN this year? So we don't have to hear how they aren't ready next year? And if Meyer is on an innings limit, shouldn't he be getting experience here soon? I mean, assuming they are going to try next year?
Lighten up Francis....

#27 DocBauer

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:19 PM

Baring a huge run of injuries I think this team wins at least 85 games and sniffs the playoffs.

Why?
May and/or Meyer coming up is going to make this a rather solid rotation. Hughes is pitching like an ACE, Nolasco has been getting unlucky and should pitch like a number two the rest of the way, DeDuno keeps doing what he does and has solidified himself in being a nice back end of the rotation type guy. Gibson is coming along nicely as well and is showing some flashes.

-Willingham is finally healthy and is hitting like a beast.

-Dozier is only getting better and better.

-Other than Escobar and Kurt there aren't really that many regression candidates on this squad.

-Mauer and Arcia are both going to come on very strong and will end their seasons with 120 OPS+


Going to, more or less, agree with this. Before the season began I wrote that I saw a team that could seriously contend for .500 ball, give or take a couple games. And for a rebuilding team, just begining to see the fruition of top talent ready, or getting close, and a couple nice FA signings, that would be fun, interesting, and provide real optimism as well as a springboard for next season and beyond. I also stated that with a little luck, ie: a lack of injuries, a couple players returning to just norms and not career years, and a couple youngsters stepping forward, 84-85 wins was possible. And Im going to stand by that, along with Dave.

Rotation: Hughes has been outstanding. He's everything, and more, any of us could have wished for. Pick your reason for success, but don't forget his age, stuff, and past top prospect status. But even with some regression or a rough spot or two here or there, he'd still factor as a very good starter who is finding himself. Take away Nolasco's rough start, and factor his overall experience and ability, and I see no regression, but the opposite. Gibson has been one of the seasons best stories thus far. Some inconsistencies should be expected. But there is also the ability to build and grow and get better as well. My only concern is running out of gas around September. Deduno, I believe, has proved himself to be a better than average back end starter. That leaves one hole. And I agree that Correia might not have to be replaced for us to hit such a lofty goal if he just continues on his current improvement trend. But I still have doubts this will continue, and really, if he does, 85 wins or not, why hold on to him if you're a rebuilding club with future talent almost ready on the farm? I'd like to see him gone for building sake, and I believe it will happen at some point. Now, does that mean May or Meyer I don't know. Personally, I'm not falling asleep on Darnell being the most ready to come up and show something.

Bullpen: Talk to other teams how spoiled we've been to have the pens we've had over the years. And this pen is very close to continuing our string of good to great relief staffs. We need Swarzak to become more of his consistent self. I'm not as down on Burton as some. He had one poor stretch in 2013, but otherwise was solid to good. It's been rougher this year, but at this point, I think he's still a solid, experienced option and not cooked...yet. I just don't believe in the G-Man. Sooner or later, Tonkin and/or Achter need to come up/back up. Late bloomer or mystery man, Pino probably deserves a shot at some point. What he's doing just can't be ignored.

Offense: To me, this might be the biggest question mark, for consistency if nothing else. Despite his short-comings, a healthy Hammer has something left in the tank, and provides a veteran power/experienced RBI bat in the middle of the order. Something we'll have to probably address in FA or trade next year to replace. Along with an also now healthy Arcia, he of tremendous ability, we gain another dangerous bat. Dozier is a very good player, still growing and developing, who might reach stud potential. Plouffe is growing up before our eyes, and is having the best year of his short career. News flash: Pinto is good. And he's only going to get better. Suzuki, even with regression, is a solid, experienced bat having a great season, and seems to get what "clutch" means. I'm certain Escobar will show some regression, but he as flat out rescued a black hole in the lineup to something at least respectable. I don't know how much longer Santana can keep things up, but the kid has both surprised and impressed the hell out of me. He's not playing enough at SS, he's young and inexperienced, he's been thrown in to the deepest end of the pool, and yet, he doesn't play like it. He reminds me of Revere, not in direct comparison, but his speed, attitude, and the way he provides excitement. Please, nobody tell him he's not supposed to be playing this well.

And we still have Mauer. I know he has his detractors. Not going to argue with those here. But he is flat out one of the best pure hitters and OB guys in the league, and usually a doubles machine. Whether he hits 2, or my preference at 3, if we can get even a second half of the season with the normal Mauer, that's a huge lift.

These things, and this is a club who can reach that magical .500 mark, and even reach a little higher.

#28 DocBauer

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 07:21 PM

On a side note, as I hear it, if the Twins DO reach 85 wins, Ludacris will now bow out in favor of Prince coming out of semi-retirement to play Target Field.

#29 Sconnie

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:14 PM

On pace for 78 wins, 76 if you pythag it. Sounds about right. That's about 10 fewer losses than 2013, and a team that's in ball games noticeably more often than the 90+loss clubs,

Moreover it's about what you'd expect from a team that brought in a pair of #3-ish starters to replace bad pitchers, but not much else, and has a balance that slightly favors players likely to improve as compared to those likely to decline or regress.

It's also encouraging in light of the loss of value from Mauer with the move to first and his struggles at the plate.

indeed, also encouraging considering all of the extra outs given up with the miscast players

#30 pierre75275

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 09:36 PM

I just confirmed with the Twins PR people, yes, if the Twins win 85 games, Luda will be performing this winter at Target Field.


What snowstorm are they going to be playing in?