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Alex Meyer Rerun or just showing More Consistency

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#1 jokin

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:08 PM

Alex Meyer tonight again goes 6 IP, 0 Runs, 11 Ks, 100 pitches

#2 nicksaviking

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:33 PM

Playoffs get moved up and start tomorrow because of a confirmed Armageddon due in June. Who starts the one game play-in game for the Twins? I choose Meyer sight unseen.

#3 Twins Twerp

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:34 PM

Watched on first pitch app. Alot of called third strikes...like 8 if im not mistaken. He missed his spots alot from what i could see. Still a great outing, other club was pretty weak. High pitch count. Rob antony was there and will also see his next start.

#4 jorgenswest

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:37 PM

It is time. The Twins burned too many of Gibson's pitches in the minors last year. Meyer is ready to struggle in the majors. Struggle is an important part of growth and there isn't enough struggle matched up against AAA pitchers.

#5 jokin

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:48 PM

Watched on first pitch app. Alot of called third strikes...like 8 if im not mistaken. He missed his spots alot from what i could see. Still a great outing, other club was pretty weak. High pitch count. Rob antony was there and will also see his next start.


I'm not worried about the weak team argument. He dominated the PawSox in his last outing and was striking out major leaguers and top prospects in that game. I'm also not worried about the 8 called third strikes. At this point, the guy's stuff, especially with the new change-up, is virtually unhittable. All in all, with his slightly higher pitch count (boosted by a Romero error), he still represents a legitimate option to possibly get into the 7th inning in every game.

Edited by jokin, 28 April 2014 - 08:44 PM.


#6 jokin

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:55 PM

It is time. The Twins burned too many of Gibson's pitches in the minors last year. Meyer is ready to struggle in the majors. Struggle is an important part of growth and there isn't enough struggle matched up against AAA pitchers.


Right on jorgenwest. I hope the Twins learned from their misguided obstinance last year in holding Gibson back needlessly. They could debut Meyer starts twice in the next homestand, May 13 against Boston and May 18 against Seattle. I hope they seriously consider doing so.

#7 Twins Twerp

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:57 PM

I'm not worried about the weak team argument. He dominated the PawSox in his last outing and was striking out major leaguers and top prospects in that game. I'm also not worried about the 8 called third strikes. At this point, the guy's stuff, especially with the new change-up, is virtually unhittable. All in all, with his slightly higher pitch count (aided by a Robinson error), he still represents a legitimate option to possibly get into the 7th inning in every game.


Yes but the line looks much better than the actual product. This isn't fantasy baseball here. He has a lot he can still work on down on the farm. He isn't that close to the majors imo because of service time and not being on the 40. Could he come up and struggle, sure. But that doesnt make much sense at this time. Would the cardinals do that? No. Would the rays do that? No. If he keeps up this pace, he might be up by July, but no sooner. When he comes up, he needs to be up for good. Every 24 year old has improvements he can make.

#8 Fatt Crapps

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 08:16 PM

Would the cardinals do that? No.


Wacha?

#9 jokin

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 08:32 PM

Yes but the line looks much better than the actual product. This isn't fantasy baseball here. He has a lot he can still work on down on the farm. He isn't that close to the majors imo because of service time and not being on the 40. Could he come up and struggle, sure. But that doesnt make much sense at this time. Would the cardinals do that? No. Would the rays do that? No. If he keeps up this pace, he might be up by July, but no sooner. When he comes up, he needs to be up for good. Every 24 year old has improvements he can make.


Why? Is there data to suggest that this has to happen? The fact is, the opposite is true, it's actually more rare that once a player is called up, he's up for good. And no one is suggesting that Meyer is merely putting up unreplicable fantasy stats- just that every expert concurs that he has elite stuff and a high ceiling. Randy Johnson didn't put it all together until he was 28.....he learned on the job at the major league level through his mid-20s before finally becoming a "pitcher". Meyer appears to be on a faster track, with similar stuff.

You ask, "could he come up and struggle, sure." I ask, "could he come up and be a key part of the rotation, sure." His performance against Pawtucket supports my case. When a guy is demonstrating that he is one of the best franchise options, you let the colt out of the barn and see what he's got. The Cards and Rays included. If he needs some fine tuning back in Rochester, so be it, but I think he's demonstrating that he's a good enough athlete to make improvements while on the job at the major league level- and it doesn't cost anything to find out.

Edited by jokin, 28 April 2014 - 08:34 PM.


#10 jokin

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 08:53 PM

Originally Posted by Twins Twerp Posted Image Would the cardinals do that? No. Would the rays do that? No.


Wacha?


And Price?

#11 Sconnie

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 08:57 PM

When a guy has 2.7 ERA and 35 Ks, 11 BB in 5 starts in AAA, he had better be on the ML roster, when your alternatives are Pelfrey or Corriea.

#12 Twins Twerp

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 08:58 PM

Why? Is there data to suggest that this has to happen? The fact is, the opposite is true, it's actually more rare that once a player is called up, he's up for good. And no one is suggesting that Meyer is merely putting up unreplicable fantasy stats- just that every expert concurs that he has elite stuff and a high ceiling. Randy Johnson didn't put it all together until he was 28.....he learned on the job at the major league level through his mid-20s before finally becoming a "pitcher". Meyer appears to be on a faster track, with similar stuff

You ask, "could he come up and struggle, sure." I ask, "could he come up and be a key part of the rotation, sure." His performance against Pawtucket supports my case. When a guy is demonstrating that he is one of the best franchise options, you let the colt out of the barn and see what he's got. The Cards and Rays included. If he needs some fine tuning back in Rochester, so be it, but I think he's demonstrating that he's a good enough athlete to make improvements while on the job at the major league level- and it doesn't cost anything to find out.


Agree to disagree. Im not going to respond to your trolling just because you use bold. i was simply giving my opinion on what i think the twins would do and some observations from the game which i watched on a shi//y feed on an ipad. What is so wrong with making a few starts in AAA? He made very few starts between AA and AFL (16 before AFL last year) last year.

#13 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 09:03 PM

Meyer's problem is that the Twins have 11M into Pelfrey and 5M into Correia. Why that's a problem for his Twins debut says everything about the Twins FO.

#14 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 05:14 AM

moderator note, tone down on the sniping please.

#15 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 05:17 AM

My 2 cents, for what it's worth. I think the 40 man thing is a big deal. I also think the higher number of walks is a big deal. He's going to need to limit them. Meyer will be up with the team soon, but I do question the wisdom in bringing him up to struggle if it means sending him back down later in the season, and it's also quite possible he will be on an innings limit (though that comes from me,not from any source).

With both Darnell and Johnson being on the 40 man and doing quite well, it isn't as though the Twins are bringing up some crap pitcher just to save a buck. These guys will deserve their shot too.

#16 jokin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 07:24 AM

[quote name='diehardtwinsfan']My 2 cents, for what it's worth. I think the 40 man thing is a big deal.

I also think the higher number of walks is a big deal. He's going to need to limit them. Meyer will be up with the team soon,

but I do question the wisdom in bringing him up to struggle if it means sending him back down later in the season,

and it's also quite possible he will be on an innings limit (though that comes from me,not from any source).

With both Darnell and Johnson being on the 40 man and doing quite well, it isn't as though the Twins are bringing up some crap pitcher just to save a buck. These guys will deserve their shot too.[/QUOTE]

From Berardino on the new pitch:

[QUOTE]“Alex said, ‘This is kind of what you showed me one time,’ ” Rasmussen said. “This is a pitch he can throw more with his fastball fingers. That’s the way I would classify it. It’s closer to feeling like a fastball for him. There’s different names for it. Some people call it a ‘pitchfork’ grip. The key is that he’s confident with it. That’s a step forward.”
Fellow Red Wings starters Kris Johnson and Logan Darnell have both raved about the Meyer changeup upon getting the call to the big leagues in recent days. For Rasmussen and Twins player-development people, the key will be if Meyer can keep throwing his newfound pitch even if it starts to get hit a time or two.
“We always talk about the changeup being like rabbits — they multiply,” Rasmussen said. “You throw 15 in a game, it seems like a lot more. It’s not like you have to throw it a lot. It sure seems to have a lot of effect. If you have the ability to throw three pitches over, hitters can’t eliminate something.”

[/QUOTE]

Sounds like a work in progress and providing the reasoning to slow-play his promotion to the Twins. Meyer struggling in his latest start adds ammunition to that argument, although it isn't clear if his bad start was due to a problem with the change-up or something else. But there's more that codifies what the "Twins development people" are thinking- about his development and the imposition of an innings limit:

[QUOTE] Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony said this weekend 30 percent might be the working multiplier for someone like Meyer.


“I think 30 percent is pretty much the standard,” Antony said. “It’s kind of the guideline you work under. You monitor it. If all of a sudden the velocity starts to decrease, that’s often a precursor to fatigue. You can always skip a start. We just want him to stay healthy throughout the year and continue to progress.”


Kyle Gibson was capped at 152 2/3 innings last season, but he was in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery.

Adding 30 percent to Meyer’s estimated total of 120 innings last season would have the Twins shutting him down at around 156 innings.


The question now is at what point those innings might start to accrue at the big-league level?


“The intensity is a lot different (in the minors),” Antony said. “You definitely can control things there.”

[/QUOTE]

Translation and Predictions? It appears that "progress" has replaced "consistency" as the new watchword for slow-playing Meyer's promotion to the Twins. And that Meyer's health and apparent China Doll status has to be protected in a "controlled" setting away from the "intensity" of MLB. I'm now thinking, barring catastrophe in the Twins rotation, the Twins are inclined to not promote Meyer unless he forces their hand, and we definitely won't be seeing a September call-up for Meyer, as no matter where he pitches this year, his season will likely be done by September 1... I'm now looking for a 2015 big-club-for-good debut, and possibly not until after the Super 2 date in June of that year....in the aftermath of a grievance filed by Scott Boras.

We saw with Johnson's appearance last Thursday, there's a reason why the 29-year-old Kris Johnson has been unable to ever stick at the major league level. And obviously, none of the other depth pitchers can offer the potential that Meyer brings to the table. But because of their roster status, they all will get their extended major league apprenticeships at the expense of Alex Meyer having to wait his turn. Disappointing, to say the least.


You said this:

[QUOTE]I also think the higher number of walks is a big deal.[/QUOTE]

I go back again to Randy Johnson, who is the closest prototype for what we have in Alex Meyer.

Randy Johnson's AAA numbers just before his call-up to Montreal- and the beginning of his 3 year big league apprenticeship before he found pitching dominance:

K/9: 8.7
BB/9: 5.6
SO/W: 1.58
ERA: 3.20

Alex Meyer's AAA numbers:

K/9: 11.51
BB/9: 3.97
SO/W: 2.86
ERA: 3.45

Edited by jokin, 05 May 2014 - 07:27 AM.


#17 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:17 AM

I'm not sure I'd call it disappointing. The Twins need to do what's best for Meyer in the long term, and unless they suddenly find themselves in a penant race, there's not a good reason to bring him up when there are other guys on the 40 who are pitching rather well in Rochester.

#18 DJL44

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 08:41 AM

I hope the Twins learned from their misguided obstinance last year in holding Gibson back needlessly.


This is the same Kyle Gibson that was awful after he was promoted? Gibson proved the Twins right, not the other way around.

#19 jokin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:11 AM

This is the same Kyle Gibson that was awful after he was promoted? Gibson proved the Twins right, not the other way around.


This point has been much debated over time- and it's highly debatable that when Gibson was called up last year proved anything. It is arguable that the Twins called up Gibson well after his TJ weakened arm was still live. And as in the case of Randy Johnson, Gibson has acknowledged that he learned from his time last year to come in with a better plan and approach this season. You can't get there until you are there.

Edited by jokin, 05 May 2014 - 09:14 AM.


#20 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:25 AM

Just a point, but I'm not sure using Randy Johnson, a hall of famer, as a comparrison point is what we should be doing when evaluating our prospects. If everyone who had those numbers turned into Johnson, then there would be a ton of HOF pitchers out there. The reality is that they most likely won't... That's true of Gibson and of Meyer, even if their ceilings will allow for it. What worked for Johnson won't necessarily work for our guys. Each guy is going to have to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Right now, with Johnson, May, and Darnell all performing, Meyer is not going to be on the top of the call up list, for no other reason than that he still is refining some things and he's not on the 40 man... and given that this team is not a contender, I see no problems with that. I might sing a different tune if Pelfrey was the 5 starter and this was a legit 90 win team... but it isn't.

#21 jokin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:32 AM

I'm not sure I'd call it disappointing. The Twins need to do what's best for Meyer in the long term, and unless they suddenly find themselves in a penant race, there's not a good reason to bring him up when there are other guys on the 40 who are pitching rather well in Rochester.


Why are we so focused on delaying calling up our best players until we're in a pennant race? By that logic, we may as well not call up Meyer, Buxton or Sano until about 2017 or perhaps never, because this team is just not likely going to be a legitimate contender without its best talents firmly ensconced in their major league careers. And you don't get there until you've put in the time at that level enough to get in your comfort zone and produce predictably.

No. This is disappointing, because it means that Meyer's progression is being slow-played, which potentially delays him in starting the process- that can only be accomplished while at the major league level- ie, of reaching his ceiling potential sooner rather than later. I don't know about you, but I'd like 2015 to be the first year that we'll have been considered a legitimate contender in the last 5 years. This type of delaying move makes the likelihood of that happening much less likely.

And the other guys pitching well in Rochester? Ask yourself honestly, which of these other guys in the rotation is going to be a difference maker, to a man, they project as anywhere from back-end rotation starters to depth filler (maybe May makes it somewhere between #3-4 starter status, but it's just as likely that he ends up as a reliever).

You said I offered no "good reason" to bring up Meyer by this summer- to the contrary- in this post and my more extensive one at #36, I've offered multiple good reasons why the Twins should be moving forward with Meyer and a promotion no later than just after the Super 2 date. And then there's this last reason: by not promoting Meyer if he continues to pitch better than Randy Johnson did at the same point in their respective careers, the Twins invite all kinds of speculation that their motives are financially based- do they really want to go there with the paying public?

#22 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:39 AM

I don't get the logic in keeping your best players down until the team is a contendor. How do they become contednors with their best players in the minors?

I think what some of us would like is for Meyer to get more starts in MN than in AAA, so that next year he's ready. I remain hopeful Buxton and Sano are on this roster next year. Would be great if they spread out the number of rookies, and if more guys were more ready for their arrival. Or, I could be wrong, and their best players should be in the minors waiting until they are nigh on perfect at everything before being called up.
Lighten up Francis....

#23 jokin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:40 AM

Just a point, but I'm not sure using Randy Johnson, a hall of famer, as a comparrison point is what we should be doing when evaluating our prospects. If everyone who had those numbers turned into Johnson, then there would be a ton of HOF pitchers out there. The reality is that they most likely won't... That's true of Gibson and of Meyer, even if their ceilings will allow for it. What worked for Johnson won't necessarily work for our guys. Each guy is going to have to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Right now, with Johnson, May, and Darnell all performing, Meyer is not going to be on the top of the call up list, for no other reason than that he still is refining some things and he's not on the 40 man... and given that this team is not a contender, I see no problems with that. I might sing a different tune if Pelfrey was the 5 starter and this was a legit 90 win team... but it isn't.


Straw man argument. I have not said that Meyer is going to the HOF- of course we don't know if he has a Johnson career ahead of him, but we do know that Johnson struggled to get established, not being a dominant ML pitcher until age 28- and Meyer's numbers are ahead of Johnson's, and yet it appears that Meyer will not be called up anytime soon even though Johnson was- and was allowed to struggle, develop and grow into a dominant pitcher at the major league level.

In fact, I have said that their height, career backgrounds and electric stuff are nearly identical- except that Meyer evidentially appears to ahead of Johnson at the same point of development- and that is all I've said.

Edited by jokin, 05 May 2014 - 09:52 AM.


#24 jokin

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 09:48 AM

I don't get the logic in keeping your best players down until the team is a contendor. How do they become contednors with their best players in the minors?

I think what some of us would like is for Meyer to get more starts in MN than in AAA, so that next year he's ready. I remain hopeful Buxton and Sano are on this roster next year. Would be great if they spread out the number of rookies, and if more guys were more ready for their arrival. Or, I could be wrong, and their best players should be in the minors waiting until they are nigh on perfect at everything before being called up.


Yeah, "consistency" and "progress" are a fickle thing, it appears that the standard for the best players is calibrated more towards "perfection"- I would think this kind of slow-play, should it continue, would invite scrutiny from the player's union. There's one thing like the Rays and Cardinals delaying calling up their top prospect for the Super 2 rule, heck, the rule was agreed upon by both sides in the CBA. But if Meyer ends up getting shut down before a call-up this year, followed by the fans not seeing Buxton or Sano until say, Super 2 date, 2016, then that says something else. And it also means that this team won't be competing for a pennant any time soon.

#25 tobi0040

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 10:18 AM

Yeah, "consistency" and "progress" are a fickle thing, it appears that the standard for the best players is calibrated more towards "perfection"- I would think this kind of slow-play, should it continue, would invite scrutiny from the player's union. There's one thing like the Rays and Cardinals delaying calling up their top prospect for the Super 2 rule, heck, the rule was agreed upon by both sides in the CBA. But if Meyer ends up getting shut down before a call-up this year, followed by the fans not seeing Buxton or Sano until say, Super 2 date, 2016, then that says something else. And it also means that this team won't be competing for a pennant any time soon.



My personal opionion, no way will the Twins bring up Meyer prior to the Super 2 deadline. Buxton's late start and Sano's injury make super 2 next year a real possibility for both. As far as the players union, we have been down that road before (Perkins). But it is very difficult to prove so the Twins will win.

#26 DJL44

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 11:11 AM

I think Meyer comes up when an injury or trade opens up a spot. The Twins have been without starting pitching depth for years. They aren't going to give away pitchers in May. Meyer is very likely to see the big leagues this season. Correia will pitch the second half of the season on a different team. Pelfrey might be worthless and Deduno is fragile.

I think Trevor May gets called up in September and it might be to replace Meyer in the rotation when he reaches 150 innings pitched.

#27 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 12:13 PM

Why are we so focused on delaying calling up our best players until we're in a pennant race? By that logic, we may as well not call up Meyer, Buxton or Sano until about 2017 or perhaps never, because this team is just not likely going to be a legitimate contender without its best talents firmly ensconced in their major league careers. And you don't get there until you've put in the time at that level enough to get in your comfort zone and produce predictably.

No. This is disappointing, because it means that Meyer's progression is being slow-played, which potentially delays him in starting the process- that can only be accomplished while at the major league level- ie, of reaching his ceiling potential sooner rather than later. I don't know about you, but I'd like 2015 to be the first year that we'll have been considered a legitimate contender in the last 5 years. This type of delaying move makes the likelihood of that happening much less likely.

And the other guys pitching well in Rochester? Ask yourself honestly, which of these other guys in the rotation is going to be a difference maker, to a man, they project as anywhere from back-end rotation starters to depth filler (maybe May makes it somewhere between #3-4 starter status, but it's just as likely that he ends up as a reliever).

You said I offered no "good reason" to bring up Meyer by this summer- to the contrary- in this post and my more extensive one at #36, I've offered multiple good reasons why the Twins should be moving forward with Meyer and a promotion no later than just after the Super 2 date. And then there's this last reason: by not promoting Meyer if he continues to pitch better than Randy Johnson did at the same point in their respective careers, the Twins invite all kinds of speculation that their motives are financially based- do they really want to go there with the paying public?


Jokin, just to be clear, I'm not saying wait until we are a contender. I am saying that Meyer still has some things to do and that there are guys on the 40 man who are preforming well and deserve a shot. If we were a contender, I'd see the logic in rushing Meyer as he's likely better than those other guys, but absent a spot on the 40 man and some issues that Meyer needs to work on, it makes a ton more sense to let those other guys get a shot first. I really don't see the point in rushing him. Rushing prospects rarely works, and I see little that can be gained in the short term from doing it as well.

#28 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 12:35 PM

rushing is a loaded word. It creates a tautology, imo.

Actually, the truly elite players do come up early/young. There was a study on this last year on teh interwebs.
Lighten up Francis....

#29 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 01:07 PM

and Meyer isn't exactly old.

#30 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 01:31 PM

and Meyer isn't exactly old.


Not old, but not "elite young" either....and he'll be entering his 31 year old season when they would lose control of him......I just want 10+ starts in MN this year....if for no other reason to make next year more likely to be successful.
Lighten up Francis....