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Article: Market Inefficiency: Creativity Needed

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#1 AM.

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 09:22 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...eativity-needed

#2 Nick Nelson

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 09:55 AM

Good writeup. Interesting idea.

I get frustrated with the Twins' lack of effort at finding a great shortstop considering the importance of the position. I guess I'd get a little more jazzed about adding Drew if I actually thought he was really good. He hit pretty well last year (while striking out a ton) but the two years before he didn't. And he's already 31.

Spending a bunch of money, and giving up prospects/picks, to acquire Drew is certainly one way to improve the position, but if we're talking about creativity, I think there are better long-term solutions to be found.

#3 Brandon

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 10:06 AM

I realize that next offseason there will be several SS available in Free Agency and the cost to sign Drew is a little high. But by not signing him they are saying that this season is a lost cause. as the Twins do have the money available to sign him. How much do they expect to save by waiting? I know the 2nd round pick is valuable but it is not likely to be that much more than what Drew brings us.

#4 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 10:22 AM

IMO it's a waste now to sign him. You've already gone without for a month. May as well wait another month, hope were .500 and you can promise him the starting SS job. Won't lose the 2nd pick, right? Or do you lose 2016 pick then? 2nd pick could be a guy like Harrison(freak athlete) so might be a good year to have that 2nd pick.

#5 AM.

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 12:06 PM

Good writeup. Interesting idea.

I get frustrated with the Twins' lack of effort at finding a great shortstop considering the importance of the position. I guess I'd get a little more jazzed about adding Drew if I actually thought he was really good. He hit pretty well last year (while striking out a ton) but the two years before he didn't. And he's already 31.

Spending a bunch of money, and giving up prospects/picks, to acquire Drew is certainly one way to improve the position, but if we're talking about creativity, I think there are better long-term solutions to be found.


I would be open to other (or maybe even any) approaches to finding a long term solution. But this is a potential short/medium upgrade there for the taking. I won't argue he is a great solution, just an upgrade. If the Twins want, they can make it happen. However, I am suspicious that if they wait until after June 4, they will lose out on him.

#6 spycake

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 01:35 PM

So the Twins should be willing to sign Drew for market rate.... but only if they get a modest pitching prospect too? If they were that close to signing him, I am pretty sure the Red Sox would say "good luck" as would Boras and Drew.

Based on his 2013 salary and performance, Drew should get 2/20 minimum on the open market, probably more. The value of the 2nd round pick *might* be $6 mil, I think? It really shouldn't be much of an impediment.

The bigger impediment is almost certainly Boras' demands. I wonder if he is still looking for Peralta/Bourn type deal, in which case a little side deal with Boston means nothing. Or the impediment could be the Twins demands -- if they are only willing to pay Drew like Nishioka money, that is obviously a nonstarter too.

#7 CRArko

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 01:53 PM

The obvious question here: if Drew is that good, how come the Tigers, who are clearly in "win now mode," have not signed him? It's not like they have a high first round pick, and are willing to open up the bank.
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#8 spycake

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 02:02 PM

The obvious question here: if Drew is that good, how come the Tigers, who are clearly in "win now mode," have not signed him? It's not like they have a high first round pick, and are willing to open up the bank.


I wouldn't read it so much as a knock on Drew as a player, but probably his contract demands. Boras doesn't like to adjust down for the market. It is probably magnified now that the season is underway if Drew/Boras still want to be paid as if 2014 is a full season.

#9 Jim H

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 02:09 PM

Good writeup. Interesting idea.

I get frustrated with the Twins' lack of effort at finding a great shortstop considering the importance of the position. I guess I'd get a little more jazzed about adding Drew if I actually thought he was really good. He hit pretty well last year (while striking out a ton) but the two years before he didn't. And he's already 31.

Spending a bunch of money, and giving up prospects/picks, to acquire Drew is certainly one way to improve the position, but if we're talking about creativity, I think there are better long-term solutions to be found.


This is been the problem with Drew all along. He is going to be pretty expensive, will need to be signed for awhile, and I agree with Nick-he hasn't been all that good. So the most likely outcome is you tie yourself to a solution who is likely to be among the poorest big league shortstops. You are mostly preventing yourself from seeking a better outside solution and it will be almost equally difficult to find out about a potential internal solution(such as Santana) should one present itself.

#10 stringer bell

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 02:33 PM

I have been on board with acquiring a near-ready shortstop from an organization that has SS depth in their system. I don't know which minor leaguers would appeal to other teams or if anyone is interested in what the Twins have on their 25-man roster. With the emergence of Colabello and Kubel and the AAA excellence of Parmelee (walkoff homer today), the Twins have depth at DH/corner OF and in the bullpen.

#11 ashburyjohn

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 02:38 PM

I suspect that such a trade would go against the CBA and the compensation plan for free agents. A one sided trade with a tacit agreement to conduct another transaction would likely draw attention from the commissioner's office and be voided, and/or another team who wants Drew after the signing deadline would file a grievance.

#12 old nurse

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 02:39 PM

History does not appear to be kind to the career of most over 30 SS. Money and years are the only 2 factors keeping anyone from signing Drew. Boras has overvalued his client. Boras continues not to budge from his demands. The end result is that he cost his client money.

Boston offering the QO gave Boras the impression his client was worth that much. It was a gamble by Boston. Drew may have been worth that much yo them, but in the end I think it was a shot at Boras. Boras did not get his client the big money offer. Boston gave Boras the impression that Drew was worth more than what he was.

#13 Dantes929

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 03:18 PM

Ok, for starters don't feel sorry for Drew. Correct me if I am wrong but didn't he have to turn down a $14 mil offer from the Sox for the draft pick to attach to him? 2nd, I was on board with signing him because I think he would be an improvement but he really isn't that great a hitter. .253 with 10 homer power. I would like him but wouldn't love him. The creativity I was looking for earlier in the year would be to trade Sano for a top shortstop prospect . The ratings that showed Buxton and Sano in the top 5 prospects in all of baseball had two shortstops in the top 5 as well. Xander Bogaerts for example in which case Boston could have kept Drew and inserted Sano and we would have Xander to go along with Plouffe. Of course that kind of trade is off the table since Sano got hurt.

#14 jorgenswest

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 03:19 PM

Drew came into this season ranked 23rd in projected WAR among shortstops. That makes him an upgrade for several teams including the Twins.

However, at his age the ranking should not be expected to improve in 2015 and 2016. At some point he will need to move off of SS defensively without the bat to be a regular anywhere else. N one wants to pay for that. The Twins certainly have experience signing guys in their early 30s and watching them decline I. The second or third year of the commitment.

He fits so much better on a team with a starting pitching staff that makes them real contenders and a need this year at SS. That describes the Tigers a lot better than the Twins. My guess is that he hasn't been willing to listen to one year offers.

It is hard to blame him. A few years back teams were willing to pay based on a strong previous season that wasn't in line with his career. Teams are smarter now in their projections. They know better than to overpay or trade for a player based on a single outlying season.

#15 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 05:20 PM

I've been in favor our signing Drew since the World Series came to a close last winter, and I still believe it to be a good idea for the team, even knowing that Drew will decline into 2015/2016. Maybe Santana can become consistent enough at SS to take over the position late in 2015 or by 2016, but he needs work, and he needs to continue to hit at AAA and then at the MLB level, which is no easy task. Drew is a proven commodity. And yes, he has a history of injuries, but the Twins have plenty of replacement level-ish SS candidates (Flo, Escobar, Nunez... etc).

I don't know that you can make a deal witht he Sox dependent on a deal with Drew, to offset the draft pick loss, but a 2nd round pick is likely worth less than the improvment Drew gives the team. I don't know that Drew makes this team a playoff contender, and I could easily convince myself that nothing short of a Kershaw type ace could get this team to that contender level, but Drew makes this team better, even at 3/36.

#16 Brandon

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:03 PM

Having a SS like Drew and getting Meyer into the rotation will make us contenders this year.

#17 Jim H

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:10 PM

I've been in favor our signing Drew since the World Series came to a close last winter, and I still believe it to be a good idea for the team, even knowing that Drew will decline into 2015/2016. Maybe Santana can become consistent enough at SS to take over the position late in 2015 or by 2016, but he needs work, and he needs to continue to hit at AAA and then at the MLB level, which is no easy task. Drew is a proven commodity. And yes, he has a history of injuries, but the Twins have plenty of replacement level-ish SS candidates (Flo, Escobar, Nunez... etc).

I don't know that you can make a deal witht he Sox dependent on a deal with Drew, to offset the draft pick loss, but a 2nd round pick is likely worth less than the improvment Drew gives the team. I don't know that Drew makes this team a playoff contender, and I could easily convince myself that nothing short of a Kershaw type ace could get this team to that contender level, but Drew makes this team better, even at 3/36.


I have seen this post in various forms all winter. You seem to be conceding that Drew may not be able to hold off even what is likely to be a fairly mediocre shortstop like Santana in a year or so, that Drew is unlikely to remain healthy, and even if he does he is not going to much more than mediocre himself. So why exactly do you want Drew? It doesn't seem you think that Drew is so much of an improvement on Florimon, Escobar or Nunez that he will make a dramatic improvement on the Twins or the shortstop position. I would be very surprised if that were the case.

So exactly what does Drew bring to the Twins that we should want him? I personally believe that adding Drew might actually get in the way of a long term solution, but I do understand that many of you don't feel that way. I know the Twins have money, and I am aware that the fail rate of 2nd round picks is high enough that losing the pick shouldn't be a huge factor. My problem is that I just don't think Drew is likely to be good enough, for long enough to be worth the cost. Personally, I would just go with Florimon until someone shows enough to move him aside. Or failing that, make a trade this offseason.

#18 Sconnie

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:14 PM

The NBA does sign and trade deals frequently. Is there a reason why Boston's GM and TR/RA can't come to a compensatory trade? If the deal goes through, the Twins send prospects X,Y and Z to Boston, in exchange for Drew, and TR then negotiates the contract with Boras and Boston GM, Boston GM signs the deal and then Twins and Red Sox make the trade.

#19 jokin

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:22 PM

This is been the problem with Drew all along. He is going to be pretty expensive, will need to be signed for awhile, and I agree with Nick-he hasn't been all that good. So the most likely outcome is you tie yourself to a solution who is likely to be among the poorest big league shortstops. You are mostly preventing yourself from seeking a better outside solution and it will be almost equally difficult to find out about a potential internal solution(such as Santana) should one present itself.


Your bolded sentences don't follow, logically speaking. How does a SS sign an expensive contract to some random team if he's "likely to be among the poorest big league shortstops"? When healthy, he overall is in the top third of SS, as demonstrated in 2013. As we've discussed in countless other threads, it's Drew's health that is in question, not his ability as a quality hitting SS- and rarest of valuable middle infield rarities, hits lefthanded.

#20 Sconnie

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:25 PM

Having a SS like Drew and getting Meyer into the rotation will make us contenders this year.

I like your optimism, but respectfully disagree. We're a centerfielder and a starting pitcher on top of Meyer and Drew away from contending.

#21 jokin

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:30 PM

I have seen this post in various forms all winter. You seem to be conceding that Drew may not be able to hold off even what is likely to be a fairly mediocre shortstop like Santana in a year or so, that Drew is unlikely to remain healthy, and even if he does he is not going to much more than mediocre himself. So why exactly do you want Drew? It doesn't seem you think that Drew is so much of an improvement on Florimon, Escobar or Nunez that he will make a dramatic improvement on the Twins or the shortstop position. I would be very surprised if that were the case.

So exactly what does Drew bring to the Twins that we should want him? I personally believe that adding Drew might actually get in the way of a long term solution, but I do understand that many of you don't feel that way. I know the Twins have money, and I am aware that the fail rate of 2nd round picks is high enough that losing the pick shouldn't be a huge factor. My problem is that I just don't think Drew is likely to be good enough, for long enough to be worth the cost. Personally, I would just go with Florimon until someone shows enough to move him aside. Or failing that, make a trade this offseason.


You simply can't go with Florimon any longer.....his hitting is epically bad....epically. Permanent psychologically epic damage unplayably bad.

And why make a trade in the offseason, which would certainly be costly, when all you "trade" is money (and a chance to recoup the pick in the compensation draft should Drew work out well). Just one lower level example here: trading for Didi Gregorius, who got beat out for the job in Arizona, would cost you Josmil Pinto, do we really want to go that route?

The Twins may or may not have their SS in the organization, but that consideration should be separate to stabilizing the situation now, and in the intermediate term of 1-2 more years with Drew.

Edited by jokin, 27 April 2014 - 10:33 PM.


#22 AM.

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:39 PM

I suspect that such a trade would go against the CBA and the compensation plan for free agents. A one sided trade with a tacit agreement to conduct another transaction would likely draw attention from the commissioner's office and be voided, and/or another team who wants Drew after the signing deadline would file a grievance.


You may be right. At a minimum, they would need to seek and gain approval for it from the commissioner's office. However, something similar, at least, was explored in the past:
http://arizona.diamo...t=.jsp&c_id=ari

#23 big dog

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 07:53 PM

The various posters here and in other threads seem to hold one of three views:
1. The Twins are going to be historically bad and need to get rid of all veterans and build for the future (that camp seems to have diminished since spring training).

2. The Twins are going to be a decent team this year but they still need to figure out who to keep for the next couple of years.

3. The Twins are much better than expected and a quality shortstop will push them into the range of being a possible playoff contender.

I think you can only justify signing Drew if you belong to group 3. He certainly doesn't fit with group 1's expectations, and if you are in group 2 you ought to be nervous about how he will be (or if he'll be a Twin) in 2015 or 2016.

And if you are in group 3...well...all I can say is I hope you're right, but I'm not going to Vegas to bet on it.

#24 ashburyjohn

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 08:24 PM

The NBA does sign and trade deals frequently. Is there a reason why Boston's GM and TR/RA can't come to a compensatory trade? If the deal goes through, the Twins send prospects X,Y and Z to Boston, in exchange for Drew, and TR then negotiates the contract with Boras and Boston GM, Boston GM signs the deal and then Twins and Red Sox make the trade.


From http://www.thecubrep...xport/html/3506

5. An MLB Article XX-B free-agent who signs a Major League contract after 11:59 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day following the conclusion of the World Series has an automatic "no trade" right through June 15th. The player can waive this right, but if he does he can be traded only for cash and/or player contracts with a maximum aggregate value of $50,000.


I guess most players in the low minors will fit this limit.

#25 jokin

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 08:48 PM

The various posters here and in other threads seem to hold one of three views:
1. The Twins are going to be historically bad and need to get rid of all veterans and build for the future (that camp seems to have diminished since spring training).

2. The Twins are going to be a decent team this year but they still need to figure out who to keep for the next couple of years.

3. The Twins are much better than expected and a quality shortstop will push them into the range of being a possible playoff contender.

I think you can only justify signing Drew if you belong to group 3. He certainly doesn't fit with group 1's expectations, and if you are in group 2 you ought to be nervous about how he will be (or if he'll be a Twin) in 2015 or 2016.

And if you are in group 3...well...all I can say is I hope you're right, but I'm not going to Vegas to bet on it.


Your description of the three camps is excellent. But if I may disagree, I think it's very justifiable to sign Drew for those of us in both Camps 2 and 3. I really don't see the need to be nervous in Camp 2. Having Drew around for 2015 and 2016 shouldn't be filled with dread. He's a left-handed hitter with an extreme postive split against RHP- this is extremely valuable in a platoon situation should a dropoff in Drew's play arise that necessitates limiting his playing time. He's already said he would be willing to fill a role other than SS, should it help the team. And if they get Drew for say, 3/$30M, that $10M annual nut that the Twins are responsible for shouldn't overly hamper them from further FA accquisitions. Correia, Hammer, Suzuki, Burton come off the payroll this year, and Pelfrey, and probably Duensing come off the payroll next year. Financially, it's a new day in Twins Territory, this isn't Budget Ball in a plastic dome any longer, time to disabuse ourselves of this mindset of one mistake crippling the franchise.

Edited by jokin, 27 April 2014 - 08:51 PM.


#26 big dog

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 09:57 PM

Your description of the three camps is excellent. But if I may disagree, I think it's very justifiable to sign Drew for those of us in both Camps 2 and 3. I really don't see the need to be nervous in Camp 2. Having Drew around for 2015 and 2016 shouldn't be filled with dread. He's a left-handed hitter with an extreme postive split against RHP- this is extremely valuable in a platoon situation should a dropoff in Drew's play arise that necessitates limiting his playing time. He's already said he would be willing to fill a role other than SS, should it help the team. And if they get Drew for say, 3/$30M, that $10M annual nut that the Twins are responsible for shouldn't overly hamper them from further FA accquisitions. Correia, Hammer, Suzuki, Burton come off the payroll this year, and Pelfrey, and probably Duensing come off the payroll next year. Financially, it's a new day in Twins Territory, this isn't Budget Ball in a plastic dome any longer, time to disabuse ourselves of this mindset of one mistake crippling the franchise.


That's fair. I agree that the money isn't a huge problem; I just don't think he's a very good bet as a reliable SS and would rather look elsewhere, ideally via trade for someone else's decent but younger SS. We have to do something before Florimon is hitting .050. I won't hold my breath until I turn blue if they sign Drew. I also won't expect anything more than a short-term stopgap. If they do sign him I will certainly hope to be wrong.

#27 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 09:59 PM

A few points on Drew:

1. I disagree that he will fall off massively due to age in the next 3 years. He just turned 31, a three year deal would be for his ages 31 through 33 seasons. Age is almost a non factor.

2. "Drew is mediocre" is wrong on it's face. He's a good defensive SS with a lifetime .764 OPS. But it's even more wrong when you compare him to the Twins alternatives. I posted this before, but it bears repeating...the difference between Drew and Florimon offensively is twice the difference between Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel. Think about that. Drew would have likely been a massive upgrade.

3. "Wait till next offseason and sign a free agent or make a trade" sounds good, but it's not that easy. You don't know which free agent SS's will be available, if they will sign with the Twins, and any available are likely older than Drew and/or not much better than what the Twins have. As for a trade...how many good, major league ready SS's do you think will be available this offseason, and at what cost? Sano?

4. All that being said, IMO the window of opportunity to make such an obvious move and sign Drew came and went, and the Twins passed. A few of us said as much last winter. Now we're stuck with Florimon or options that couldn't even beat him out for the job.

#28 AM.

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 04:47 AM

A few points on Drew:

4. All that being said, IMO the window of opportunity to make such an obvious move and sign Drew came and went, and the Twins passed. A few of us said as much last winter. Now we're stuck with Florimon or options that couldn't even beat him out for the job.


Well put, Chief, in terms of arguing that a Drew signing was warranted. While I agree the Twins had the opportunity to sign Drew and passed, I think the team's good start had opened the window back open at least a crack.

I am not completely convinced Drew is a great solution. But what bothers me about the Twins' approach (and the shoulder-shrugging "hang on another month or wait until next year" posters on this thread and site) is that the Twins have financial room to add a player, have a position of clear need, and yet aren't trying to do anything about it.

My understanding of the role of the front office is to take/set a budget, and piece by piece, marginal upgrade by marginal upgrade, squeeze as many wins as possible out of that budget (ideally, while not mortgaging the future to do so.). The ongoing presence of Pedro Florimon on the roster and in the lineup makes me feel like the front office does not have share that goal.

#29 Sconnie

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 06:12 AM

From http://www.thecubrep...xport/html/3506



I guess most players in the low minors will fit this limit.

Thanks for the clarification. It makes much more sense.

#30 Sconnie

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 06:27 AM

My understanding of the role of the front office is to take/set a budget, and piece by piece, marginal upgrade by marginal upgrade, squeeze as many wins as possible out of that budget (ideally, while not mortgaging the future to do so.). The ongoing presence of Pedro Florimon on the roster and in the lineup makes me feel like the front office does not have share that goal.

It could also be that the FO has yet to find a willing partner. It takes two to tango.