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Article: Three-Bagger: Muted Mauer, Pelfrey's Problems & Pinto's Pop

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 09:22 PM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ems-Pinto-s-Pop

#2 Dantes929

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 10:27 PM

Mauer is scoring runs at a pretty good clip. On pace for 126 runs. Not saying that is all that is expected of him but being in noticeable slump and still getting on base .360 of the time is still productive. Just not as productive as we expect him to be or as productive as he will likely be. Plouffe, Kubel and Colabello will cool off but there are plenty of areas where improvement is likely from other players also.

#3 h2oface

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 11:21 PM

Great call on Pelfrey. The best thing that can happen is for him to not pitch in games until he figures out what is up. Having him in the bullpen would be a disaster, as well.

#4 twinstalker

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 02:17 AM

Great call on Pelfrey. The best thing that can happen is for him to not pitch in games until he figures out what is up. Having him in the bullpen would be a disaster, as well.

Except in the bullpen he could pitch in low-leverage situations. Meanwhile the Twins are pitching Samuel Deduno 2-4 innings in games that are basically lost.

#5 wabene

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 06:52 AM

Mauer is scoring runs at a pretty good clip. On pace for 126 runs. Not saying that is all that is expected of him but being in noticeable slump and still getting on base .360 of the time is still productive. Just not as productive as we expect him to be or as productive as he will likely be. Plouffe, Kubel and Colabello will cool off but there are plenty of areas where improvement is likely from other players also.

I think I remember when I was younger you would see runs posted in a players stat line everywhere. Even on TV when they were at bat. Seems to me it has sort of disappeared. Now it's just BA, HRs and RBIs. I notice when looking at a players stats online some don't list runs unless you delve deeper. Maybe this has something to do with why people always complain about Mauer's lack of RBIs, but are clueless about the runs. To me runs are as valuable as RBIs as either need the other to exist. I remember watching Ricky Henderson and they always had his incredible run totals posted when he came to bat.

#6 blindeke

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 07:05 AM

I'd settle for Pelfrey just not pitching in games.

#7 cmathewson

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 07:14 AM

I worry that Pelfrey has shoulder problems. One of the reasons you don't rush guys back from elbow issues is favoring the elbow puts enormous strain on the shoulder. Pelfrey is a horse, so he could probably throw the ball as hard as he wants, but it can't be good for his shoulder to do that repeatedly.

#8 SDFan

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:30 AM

I also believe there is a physical problem with Pelfrey. I hope it's nothing serious, because he seems like a very decent guy and when healthy can be a contributor.

#9 JB_Iowa

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:37 AM

Last year TD had a headline: "Time to Put Pelf on the Shelf".

Seems like it is accurate again.

#10 mike wants wins

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 09:42 AM

Signig Pelfrey was nearly as mind boggling as signing Bartlett. For two years? Mind. Boggling. If you believe in May or Meyer at all, NO REASON to sign a vet you aren't willing to bullpen or demote. If Antony could explain this, from a strategy perspective, he'd be a PR genius.

#11 TheLeviathan

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 10:26 AM

Mauer is scoring runs at a pretty good clip. On pace for 126 runs. Not saying that is all that is expected of him but being in noticeable slump and still getting on base .360 of the time is still productive. Just not as productive as we expect him to be or as productive as he will likely be. Plouffe, Kubel and Colabello will cool off but there are plenty of areas where improvement is likely from other players also.


I'd feel a lot better about Mauer if he looked like he was fine. Maybe I'm seeing something that isn't there...but he just doesn't look right. Something is off/slow/unusual.

#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 11:14 AM

I'd feel a lot better about Mauer if he looked like he was fine. Maybe I'm seeing something that isn't there...but he just doesn't look right. Something is off/slow/unusual.


Mauer has been a slow starter in his career. He's also returning to play two months off in 2013 followed by an offseason where he didn't train much at all, if I remember correctly.

It's not surprising that he's rusty. I'm a little concerned by how badly he's missing balls but I'll give it time and see if he comes around after being inactive for 6-7 months.

#13 gocgo

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 12:38 PM

Mauer has been a slow starter in his career. He's also returning to play two months off in 2013 followed by an offseason where he didn't train much at all, if I remember correctly.

It's not surprising that he's rusty. I'm a little concerned by how badly he's missing balls but I'll give it time and see if he comes around after being inactive for 6-7 months.


It's not just that he was off for 2 months...he was off because of a concussion. His bat may not be right because his brain may not be right.

#14 Sconnie

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 12:51 PM

Pinto's batting average should come up some over the season. His minor and major league BABIP ranges between .293 and .440. So far this young season it's .243. It's unreasonable to expect .440, but .290 to .340 seems pretty attainable, especially at the rate he is homering. Increasing .05 to .1 back closer to historic numbers should improve his batting average pretty significantly.

Mauer is learning a new position, and it's feasible his batting should suffer a bit during the adjustment period. He'll get back to his old slap hitting, lots of doubles. high batting average, self soon.

#15 Sconnie

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 12:55 PM

Signig Pelfrey was nearly as mind boggling as signing Bartlett. For two years? Mind. Boggling. If you believe in May or Meyer at all, NO REASON to sign a vet you aren't willing to bullpen or demote. If Antony could explain this, from a strategy perspective, he'd be a PR genius.

I think this is why Corriea wasn't resigned, and why Pelf was signed for 2 years. Meyer this year in place of Corriea, May next in place of Pelf.

#16 cmathewson

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 01:10 PM

Pelfrey for two years was a head scratcher. He didn't have many one-year offers after last year. When they interviewed Antony, he said they didn't want to just have him for his bad year after Tommy John. They wanted to reap the benefits of the second year after Tommy John. That's one of the best examples of the sunk cost fallacy I've ever heard expressed.

At this point, my hope is he could make a decent reliever. Swap him out with Deduno and see if he gets his velocity back. If he doesn't, cut your losses.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#17 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 01:13 PM

Pinto's batting average should come up some over the season. His minor and major league BABIP ranges between .293 and .440. So far this young season it's .243. It's unreasonable to expect .440, but .290 to .340 seems pretty attainable, especially at the rate he is homering. Increasing .05 to .1 back closer to historic numbers should improve his batting average pretty significantly.


I think you have that backwards. HR are not included in BABIP, as they are not in play.

#18 cmathewson

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 01:46 PM

Between the Pelfrey signing and the Bartlett fiasco (in which we lost all depth in CF), my confidence in Antony is trending towards 0.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#19 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 01:51 PM

Between the Pelfrey signing and the Bartlett fiasco (in which we lost all depth in CF), my confidence in Antony is trending towards 0.


The thing is that it wasn't actually valuable depth. Mastroianni, Presley, and Fuld are basically the same guy.

Those guys are always available.

That doesn't excuse the Twins for deciding Jason Bartlett was an MLB player but it does mean that it's essentially a moot point.

What's more interesting is how the Twins went from wanting Presley last season to dumping him this season. Either they made a scouting gaffe or something about the guy rubbed them the wrong way.

#20 mike wants wins

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 02:16 PM

The twins also did the sunk cost thing on Capps.

#21 TheLeviathan

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:27 PM

Mauer has been a slow starter in his career. He's also returning to play two months off in 2013 followed by an offseason where he didn't train much at all, if I remember correctly.

It's not surprising that he's rusty. I'm a little concerned by how badly he's missing balls but I'll give it time and see if he comes around after being inactive for 6-7 months.


Why were none of these things acceptable in the offseason when he was being pegged for a down season and you and many others were calling it absurd that he'd struggle?

Now it's suddenly reasonable that he's WAY under even the pessimistic progressions?

#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:54 PM

Why were none of these things acceptable in the offseason when he was being pegged for a down season and you and many others were calling it absurd that he'd struggle?

Now it's suddenly reasonable that he's WAY under even the pessimistic progressions?


It's three weeks into the season. If you can find one instance of me dismissing anyone who said Mauer would have a bad April, I'd love to see it.

And during the offseason, I don't recall any of us knowing that he wasn't working out and was resting due to the concussion. I know I didn't find that out until just a few weeks ago.

#23 TheLeviathan

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:04 PM

It's three weeks into the season. If you can find one instance of me dismissing anyone who said Mauer would have a bad April, I'd love to see it.

And during the offseason, I don't recall any of us knowing that he wasn't working out and was resting due to the concussion. I know I didn't find that out until just a few weeks ago.


No, you just aggressively went after anyone that pointed out he may be a regression candidate and a significant one at that. Many neutral projection systems put him at this as well and you were quick to dismiss them as "insane".

As Nick points out - he's not hitting for even gap power at this point, his BABIP and K rate may be evidence of a weakening contact rate, and he's aging. My problem is how matter-of-factly you dismiss a legitimate concern after spending the offseason railing on anyone that was putting Mauer anyone near a .750 OPS. It's not particularly consistent to harp on people that there is "no reason" to expect that much regression from Mauer when there was, in fact, reasons. The very ones you laid out in this thread to take the exact opposite position you held earlier.

Yeah, it's early, and I'm concerned. I was concerned this offseason as well. I'm hoping he starts doing some things to alleviate those concerns, that's all.

#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:15 PM

[quote name='TheLeviathan']No, you just aggressively went after anyone that pointed out he may be a regression candidate and a significant one at that. Many neutral projection systems put him at this as well and you were quick to dismiss them as "insane".[/quote]

I still think predicting an OPS of .750 for Joe Mauer is way off-base. Three weeks of play, Levi. Three weeks of play.

[quote name='TheLeviathan']My problem is how matter-of-factly you dismiss a legitimate concern after spending the offseason railing on anyone that was putting Mauer anyone near a .750 OPS. It's not particularly consistent to harp on people that there is "no reason" to expect that much regression from Mauer when there was, in fact, reasons. The very ones you laid out in this thread to take the exact opposite position you held earlier.[/QUOTE]

I didn't matter-of-factly dismiss anything. Here's the last sentence of my post, bolded in case you missed it:

[quote]I'm a little concerned by how badly he's missing balls but I'll give it time and see if he comes around after being inactive for 6-7 months.[/quote]

There is absolutely nothing inconsistent with my opinion. I'm simply not lighting myself on fire and storming the town square over 19 games in April, no matter how bad he has looked thus far.

But if you want to manufacture an opinion I never made about how Mauer would charge into 2014 with a 1.000 OPS through the first 20 games, have at it. Guys have bad months all the time and I'd be surprised if you can find one example of me getting either too excited or too dismayed over a 20 game stretch of play. This is no different.

#25 Sconnie

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:15 PM

I think you have that backwards. HR are not included in BABIP, as they are not in play.

But home runs are an indication of hitting the ball hard, correct? Home runs aren't in play, but would indicate he's hitting the ball well, just flying out at a higher rate than his career numbers would suggest he normally would.

#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:19 PM

But home runs are an indication of hitting the ball hard, correct? Home runs aren't in play, but would indicate he's hitting the ball well, just flying out at a higher rate than his career numbers would suggest he normally would.


Absolutely, I just thought you may have misunderstood how BABIP is calculated.

I agree with your general point that his BABIP should climb if he continues to hit like he has thus far this season.

#27 TheLeviathan

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:22 PM

Ihere is absolutely nothing inconsistent with my opinion. I'm simply not lighting myself on fire and storming the town square over 19 games in April, no matter how bad he has looked thus far.


Which no one did and if I had suggested the same degree of hyperbole to you would a little birdie be in my inbox? I said I was worried because he doesn't look like the old Mauer and with concussions this is a valid fear. One all Minnesotans should understand. Your "well duh!" response was in direct opposition to your aggressive offseason rejections of any worries about him. I don't believe Mauer's issues are a "well duh!" matter and frankly don't appreciate that approach to a valid concern.

Unless of course you have actual insight as to win his worrisome issues will abate. In which case please share that in whatever "well duh!" matter you'd like.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:34 PM

My post was "well, duh"? Really, Levi. Here's the post again.

Mauer has been a slow starter in his career. He's also returning to play two months off in 2013 followed by an offseason where he didn't train much at all, if I remember correctly.

It's not surprising that he's rusty. I'm a little concerned by how badly he's missing balls but I'll give it time and see if he comes around after being inactive for 6-7 months.



Pretty hard to see a "well, duh" in there any way I look at it. I mention he's a slow starter, mention that his strikeouts are mildly concerning, and say that I'll reserve judgment until more games are played.

I posted an opinion and did it respectfully. You then turned around and made the argument about me.

Is this the part where I bring up your Kyle Gibson argument from early March? Is that appropriate?

#29 TheLeviathan

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:12 PM

My post was "well, duh"? Really, Levi. Here's the post again.


That's exactly how it comes off. As has most of your Mauer-centric arguments lately. Your past tone on the same player and the same issue seem relevant to me.

I'll feel better about Mauer when he starts to look like Mauer again. Right now he doesn't.

#30 wabene

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:58 PM

Having some SP depth is not a bad thing. I don't scratch my head over signing Pelf. I scratch my head over worry about a lost investment when one pitcher doesn't pan out. The whole point of depth is insurance when someone inevitably fails.