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Wilson Ramos to miss 4-8 weeks

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#1 Sconnie

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:38 PM

The Washington post reports Wilson Ramos to miss 4-8 weeks after surgery on his wrist.
1) is the time right to trade Zuke back to the Nats?

2) was the Caps trade really that bad after all?

#2 Sconnie

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:40 PM

I had thoughts of an April Fools thread on this topic, but thought better of it...

#3 TheLeviathan

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:57 PM

was the Caps trade really that bad after all?


Regardless of Ramos' career path...it was incredibly poor value at the time.

#4 Danchat

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 08:00 PM

It's kind of impossible to say if someone is going to get injured that much. It turns out that the trade wasn't soooo bad, but it's still bad. This guy makes Joe Mauer look tough.

#5 spycake

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 08:15 PM

2) was the Caps trade really that bad after all?


Yes. Capps was a complete non-factor in 2010, and we wound up paying him almost $13 mil for 2 rWAR / 0.3 fWAR over 2 1/3 seasons.

Ramos has so far given the Nats 4.9 rWAR / 5.5 fWAR over three seasons at league minimum salary. And they still control him for 2 more seasons after this one (which will probably be discounted too, thanks to the injury). He's remained a very good player throughout his injuries so far, and he's still a very valuable asset.

And don't forget that Ramos' healthiest and most productive season to date was 2011, the year Mauer's injury exposed some of the worst positional depth in modern MLB history (which played no small role in getting our GM "reassigned" -- that might be the only silver lining on this cloud).

#6 Thrylos

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 08:18 PM

It's kind of impossible to say if someone is going to get injured that much. It turns out that the trade wasn't soooo bad, but it's still bad. This guy makes Joe Mauer look tough.


Getting hurt has nothing to do with "toughness". It happens. Hamate fractures (like what Ramos has) are commonplace in baseball. It happens.

I guess Adrian Peterson is not as tough as Joe Mauer because of all the knee problems then, using the same logic...

Hope that Ramos recovers quickly. He is a good guy and has been through a lot already including a kidnapping and deserves a break.
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#7 spycake

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 08:31 PM

It's kind of impossible to say if someone is going to get injured that much. It turns out that the trade wasn't soooo bad, but it's still bad. This guy makes Joe Mauer look tough.


To be fair, Ramos has caught more games than Mauer the past three seasons... just without the other games at 1B/DH.

And the extent of his missed time thus fair seemed to be knee surgery in 2012, and I suspected his hamstring issues in 2013 could have been related to working his way back. Not sure what's up with the wrist this year, though.

#8 Ultima Ratio

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 10:10 PM

Is this the correct forum for this?

#9 gunnarthor

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 10:31 PM

2) was the Caps trade really that bad after all?


It wasn't that bad. It was a win-now trade and it was defensible. People tend to forget that Ramos' stock was dropping at the time of the trade (he fell on BA's top 100 list from 58 to 96). He was posting a sub .300 OBP at AAA and had a history of injuries. The concern was that he might be another Miguel Olivo. Sickels wrote "I like [Ramos], but not enough to pan the trade from Minnesota's point of view; I think it is fair for both teams. In my Shadow Twins universe, I will make this trade." Manual and Callis also wrote similar things at the time.

The injury concern has certainly remained. He's been on the DL every year of his career - minor leagues included. He had an ok 2011 season but both his 2012 and 2013 seasons were wrecked by injuries (103 games combined). He's had pretty big OBP problems in the majors, posting a sub .300 OBP except when he's batting 8th in an NL lineup. I also think we tend to overrate him. His best year - 2011 - was also Mauer's worst and they were basically equal value (1.8 rWAR v 1.5).

#10 stringer bell

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 10:32 PM

I still don't have that big of a problem with trading for Capps when they did. I have a problem with trading a young guy at low ebb and I have a problem with re-signing Capps the next year.

#11 Boom Boom

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 07:21 AM

2) was the Caps trade really that bad after all?


Yes.

Ramos has been hurt a lot, but they're mostly freak injuries, not chronic injuries. It's unfortunate for him and the Nats but nothing that could have been predicted. David Ortiz had this same injury and he's turned out OK.

The Twins had Matt Capps already in Jon Rauch, and they didn't realize it because Capps had a few Saves on his record.

I just don't like the idea of trading position players for non-elite relievers.

#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 07:28 AM

Just as the Twins should make the May/Worley trade 11 times out of 10, the Nationals should make the Ramos trade 11 times out of 10.

One can't predict injury but that's a roll of the dice you take every time because the upside of Ramos was so much higher than the upside of Capps.

So it didn't work out amazingly well for the Nationals because Ramos can't stay on the field. Big deal. It was a smart move for the Nationals and a dumb move for the Twins.

#13 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 07:46 AM

The twins shouldn't make the Worley trade, they should scout better and get value. You could have made the Worley trade. They are paid to do better. As for Ramos, he has been more valuable than Capps, and he will be in the league when Capps is out of it. There is no way to like that trade.
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#14 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 07:50 AM

The twins shouldn't make the Worley trade, they should scout better and get value. You could have made the Worley trade. They are paid to do better. As for Ramos, he has been more valuable than Capps, and he will be in the league when Capps is out of it. There is no way to like that trade.


Worley wasn't the only guy in the trade. He wasn't even the centerpiece of the trade.

The point is that if you have a limited upside guy (Matt Capps, Ben Revere) and are offered someone with higher upside in return (Trevor May, Wilson Ramos), you make that trade 100% of the time and roll the dice on health/improvement from that upside player.

As for Worley, the Twins needed warm bodies who could pitch in the major leagues. Should they have scouted Worley a little more thoroughly? Absolutely... But nobody expected the kind of implosion we saw from him. Not after two productive seasons in a small ballpark, not at age 25.

#15 Tibs

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:03 AM

In 2013 at age 25 he hit 16 HR in 78 games. I didn't realize that.
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#16 cmathewson

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:08 AM

Regardless of Ramos' career path...it was incredibly poor value at the time.


This. All speculation of what might have been if we had not made that trade becomes counter-factual. Maybe he stays helathy and becomes a fixture behind the plate allowing Mauer to move to third base two years ago. Who knows?

You have to evaluate the merits of the trade at the time. You never trade a top catching prospect for a reliever. Ever. Unfortunately, the Twins have done it twice (Wynager for Davis).
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#17 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:18 AM

Actually, many experts hated the trade at the time, stating Worley was lucky, and May would be a reliever. So it isn't nobody. As I said at the time, it is the kind of trade they should make, but we all knew that......the only way to judge if they should keep their jobs is if these trades work or not. Any one of us could have made that trade.
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#18 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:19 AM

Actually, many experts hated the trade at the time, stating Worley was lucky, and May would be a reliever. So it isn't nobody. As I said at the time, it is the kind of trade they should make, but we all knew that......the only way to judge if they should keep their jobs is if these trades work or not. Any one of us could have made that trade.


And the same applies to the Ramos trade from the Nationals standpoint. Both were no-brainers from one perspective, completely baffling from the other.

#19 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:25 AM

Agree on Ramos. Awful, awful, trade. And, from the Nationals side, Ramos has already given them more value than Capps. And they still have him. I love win now trades when your team is really good, but that was not the case. But we see quite clearly that Gardy loves proven veterans. I do no know how that could not be more clear after this spring.
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#20 gunnarthor

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:39 AM

The Capps trade was a win-now trade. The Twins traded 6+ years of Ramos for a year and a half of Capps. So obviously the longterm value was likely to be Ramos (although their value over the 1.5 years was basically equal). That's just the reality of win-now trades and those were the type of trades fans were clamoring for Ryan to do when he was GM and he rarely did. The Twins had lost 10 games in the standings in a month and their pitching was nosediving. It was a fair trade.

#21 savvyspy

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:41 AM

Getting hurt has nothing to do with "toughness". It happens. Hamate fractures (like what Ramos has) are commonplace in baseball. It happens.

I guess Adrian Peterson is not as tough as Joe Mauer because of all the knee problems then, using the same logic...

Hope that Ramos recovers quickly. He is a good guy and has been through a lot already including a kidnapping and deserves a break.


I'm not sure "being a nice guy" precludes someone from pointing out Ramos has had an ACL injury, hamstring injury, and hamate bone injury (in addition to being kidnapped) in the course of 2+ seasons. Bad luck or not he is injury prone.

#22 gunnarthor

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:42 AM

Agree on Ramos. Awful, awful, trade. And, from the Nationals side, Ramos has already given them more value than Capps. And they still have him. I love win now trades when your team is really good, but that was not the case. But we see quite clearly that Gardy loves proven veterans. I do no know how that could not be more clear after this spring.


You do know Gardy's teams were usually among the youngest in baseball, right? I mean, people always seem to remember 12 starts for Livian Hernandez and ignore the 114 starts Kyle Lohse got before he turned 26.

#23 gunnarthor

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:45 AM

I'm not sure "being a nice guy" precludes someone from pointing out Ramos has had an ACL injury, hamstring injury, and hamate bone injury (in addition to being kidnapped) in the course of 2+ seasons. Bad luck or not he is injury prone.


He was injury prone in the minors too. That's part of why his prospect status fell a bit and Baseball America noted that the Twins had issues with Ramos' conditioning. And, before all his injuries, he defense was coming under question in Washington.

#24 cmathewson

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:55 AM

He was injury prone in the minors too. That's part of why his prospect status fell a bit and Baseball America noted that the Twins had issues with Ramos' conditioning. And, before all his injuries, he defense was coming under question in Washington.


Catchers get hurt. Mauer was the most durable catcher outside of Pierzinski and everybody complained that he was injury prone. One of the reasons you don't trade catchers is because they get hurt. It's a tough job that is only tougher now that every hitter takes five pitches before swinging the bat. Also, pitchers throw a lot harder and guys swing a lot harder than they did just 20 years ago. So foul tips do a lot more damage. It's a war zone back there.
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#25 gunnarthor

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:01 AM

Catchers get hurt. Mauer was the most durable catcher outside of Pierzinski and everybody complained that he was injury prone. One of the reasons you don't trade catchers is because they get hurt. It's a tough job that is only tougher now that every hitter takes five pitches before swinging the bat. Also, pitchers throw a lot harder and guys swing a lot harder than they did just 20 years ago. So foul tips do a lot more damage. It's a war zone back there.


I agree that it's a warzone but disagree on making that a reason not to trade catchers. Ignoring the Capps trade for a second, Ryan has already made two solid trades involving catchers - both times getting more than what most fans thought the value should be. If the Nats came to us and wanted Pinto for AJ Cole, we'd jump all over that, wouldn't we?

#26 Boom Boom

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:11 AM

The Capps trade was a win-now trade. The Twins traded 6+ years of Ramos for a year and a half of Capps. So obviously the longterm value was likely to be Ramos (although their value over the 1.5 years was basically equal). That's just the reality of win-now trades and those were the type of trades fans were clamoring for Ryan to do when he was GM and he rarely did. The Twins had lost 10 games in the standings in a month and their pitching was nosediving. It was a fair trade.


It was a win-now trade, but it was still misguided. The Twins were overrating Capps.

When fans say they want Ryan to make a trade to win now, they mean trade for a difference maker to put them over the top. Capps was never that kind of player.

#27 cmathewson

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:41 AM

I agree that it's a warzone but disagree on making that a reason not to trade catchers. Ignoring the Capps trade for a second, Ryan has already made two solid trades involving catchers - both times getting more than what most fans thought the value should be. If the Nats came to us and wanted Pinto for AJ Cole, we'd jump all over that, wouldn't we?


OK, let me revise my statement. You only trade catchers when:

A. They are not top prospects
B. You have a catching surplus
C. You get a lot in return

I liked the Butera trade because he's a career back-up at best and we had Fryer. I also think Sulbaran is a much better prospect than we could reasonably expect. Similar story with Doumit, who wasn't really a catcher (more of a DH).

But I would not like trading Pinto because he's every bit as good as Ramos was (in my book anyway--less power, better hit tool, similar defense) and we don't have any starting catching prospects above single A. I wouldn't jump all over a Pinto for Cole trade. It is a better trade than Ramos for Capps. Cole is a good looking prospect. He'd be behind Meyer and ahead of May. But we have more catching scarcity than pitching scarcity right now, especially in the high minors. So I probably wouldn't do that deal.
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#28 Willihammer

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:58 AM

2) was the Caps trade really that bad after all?


IMO the trade is yet another move where the strategy was sound but the talent eval failed. Either the Twins eval of Ramos, Capps, or both players.

I like the strategy of trading catching for pitching (or other players) for 3 reasons:

1. The trend in concussions and other injury risks inherent to catching make them a risky investment. Although probably not quite as risky as pitching.

2. Catchers can provide more value faster with good defense than other position players due to the sheer number of guaranteed opportunities (framing, blocking, pitch calling, etc).

3. These misc. skills aren't valued proportionately to traditional batting stats in free agency yet. Eg. Jose Molina signing for .3 to 3 million dollars / year for the past 10 years compared to Joe Mauer signing for 23m/year.

#29 gunnarthor

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:58 AM

OK, let me revise my statement. You only trade catchers when:

A. They are not top prospects
B. You have a catching surplus
C. You get a lot in return

I liked the Butera trade because he's a career back-up at best and we had Fryer. I also think Sulbaran is a much better prospect than we could reasonably expect. Similar story with Doumit, who wasn't really a catcher (more of a DH).

But I would not like trading Pinto because he's every bit as good as Ramos was (in my book anyway--less power, better hit tool, similar defense) and we don't have any starting catching prospects above single A. I wouldn't jump all over a Pinto for Cole trade. It is a better trade than Ramos for Capps. Cole is a good looking prospect. He'd be behind Meyer and ahead of May. But we have more catching scarcity than pitching scarcity right now, especially in the high minors. So I probably wouldn't do that deal.


Fair enough.

#30 TheLeviathan

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 10:18 AM

Ramos' durability may be hurting the Nats right now, but his injury while with the Twins was largely what cost us a shot at Cliff Lee and the subsequent Capps deal.

So any ding his injuries are to the Nats now pale in comparison to how they hurt us.