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Danny Santana & the .1% Solution

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Danny Santana is a major league prospect. He isn't in the Twins' Top Ten and he isn't a Top 100 prospect in minor league baseball. Most players with his pedigree don't become stars, but some do and I imagine some become All-Stars and most likely some have become Hall of Fame players.

Santana's strength as a prospect are his raw tools. He has great speed and a strong arm. His minor league stats have been unremarkable. Finally, he is a prospect in a position of need for his team.

Santana was called up because there really wasn't any one else available. He was healthy and on the 40-man roster in a situation where there Twins were without a sufficient bench and had two players hitting below .130. What are the odds that a stopgap call-up stays in the majors and never looks back? I would say about 1 in a 1000 when the guy is a middling prospect as is how I profile Mr. Santana.

I am a Twins fan and I hope for the best for my team. Against all odds, I am hoping that the Twins called up Santana at exactly the minute that he "got it" and that he would develop into a solid major leaguer.

It appears that Santana's chance to thrive could come as an outfielder. That makes the chances of success even smaller than one in a thousand. I can hope for the best, but realize that it is a near certainty that Danny Santana will be back in Rochester long before the All-Star break. Maybe, just maybe, he'll defy the odds.

By the way, hoping for Santana to defy the odds doesn't mean that I accept the Twins puzzling moves (I'm trying to be kind). Two straight years of center field struggles without adequate back-ups is only part of their problem. Carrying too many relief pitchers, falling in love with no-hit catchers and failing to be pro-active when injuries occur are pretty much inexcusable, if not inexplicable.
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Comments

  1. Twins and Losses's Avatar
    This article sums up being a Twins fan perfectly: always hoping for the best, trying to be patient, having an abundance of enthusiasm and excitement but more often than not wondering "What are they thinking?"

    Good piece of writing.
  2. huhguy's Avatar
    My Take, Santanas speed electrifies, we know he had a great spring, I love the idea, he might be the shortstop of the future....

    When anyone...makes the observations you do, your chance of being right...is strong, simply because of the scenario....most players DO NOT make it..but Santana has extraordinary tools..and I believe he has a GOOD chance of being the future Twins shortstop...so I put you in the AG group..you will criticize any player at any time...and triumph your (superior) logic
  3. tarheeltwinsfan's Avatar
    I'll take that bet. I'll put up $1.00 at 1,000 to 1 odds that Santana stays in the majors and never looks back. Do we have a bet?
  4. huhguy's Avatar
    tarheel..brave guy, Ill make the bet..IF you identify who will...take that bet?

    Also...Im from NC and a tarheelfan, where you from?
  5. Paul Pleiss's Avatar
    Tarheel takes a bet becasue at 1000:1, why not? I'm in for 10 cents, I found a dime while taking out the garbage last night and I'm willing to lose it for the chance at $100.

    Santana almost assuridly goes back down as soon as Arcia and the rest of the depleted OF corps is ready for regular playing time. I sure do love watching Santana play ball, he's so damn fast. Hopefully he can find consistency at SS down in Rochester and become a regular in the lineup for the Twins for the next couple years until an elite SS shows he's face in the Twins lineup... assuming that actually happens.
  6. tarheeltwinsfan's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by huhguy
    tarheel..brave guy, Ill make the bet..IF you identify who will...take that bet?

    Also...Im from NC and a tarheelfan, where you from?
    Statesville is my home, but I was born in Washington, DC...thus I became a Twins fan when the original Senators moved to Minnesota. Statesville is also home to former Twin, Mark Davidson, who played on the 87 Championship team.
  7. John Bonnes's Avatar
    I appreciate the post. Santana certainly has the tools but hasn't yet put them together. I guess we can hope this is the exception, but I'll temper my expectations. I think we'll need to wait for a demotion and another year or so before he shows he really gets it in AAA.
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