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MLB 2014 Draft: Assessing Value of a Shortstop vs a Pitcher in 2014

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In lieu of the possible trade rumors (and likely just rumors) of the Cardinals availability of starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller in hopes of finding a top shortstop.

The 2014 rule 5 Draft in June is already being touted as a pitcher heavy draft. The amount of high school pitchers throwing 92+ mph is easily 15 and counting, while the college pitchers heavily populating preliminary mock drafts with some showing as many as 15 1st round college pitchers taken already. It's early I know. Some will fall, but others will rise.

All that said. The Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller trades for the likes of Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus leaned towards the Cardinals, yes, the Cardinals, likely having to 'sweeten the pot' to get a top shortstop as they appear to be more limited and thus, by demand more so than historical value, appear to have a greater weighted value in 2014 and indefinitely until there's more shortstops.

For perspective, only five full-time (qualified) shortstops hit .280 or above this year. Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Evereth Cabrera, Johnny Peralta, Jordy Mercer, and Jose Iglesias would have made that 11 over .280 had they had enough at-bats. All-in-all, of qualified shortstops, only eight every day shortstops hit over .260. The 2012 season saw 10 shortstops hit over .260, 2011 had 14, and 2010 had 10 respectively. So it's not terribly down, but nonetheless, there seems to be a shared perception SS quality is down.


I'm all for the Twins getting another top tier SP - although, our farm system seems to have too many starters vying for starts already as seen in Top 50 Twins Prospects 16-20 thread below below)

Quote Originally Posted by Smcginnity View Post
I read this blog daily and barely know about Fernando Romero. I realize he is in the GCL but I know Thorpe, Rosario, Jorge, Landa but this Romero kid...I have never heard anything about him really.

Is there a prediction on which pitchers will start where next season? It seems like we have a plethora of starting pitchers but not enough spots to start them. I imagine the following:

Rochester:
Logan Darnell
Alex Meyer
Trevor May
Pat Dean
Tom Stuifbergen

New Britain:
Taylor Rogers
DJ Baxendale
Matt Summers
Alex Wimmers
Tyler Duffey

Fort Myers:
Jose Berrios
Ryan Eades
Mason Melotakis
Tim Atherton
Tim Shibuya
Hudson Boyd
Jason Wheeler

Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
Kohl Stewart
Yorman Landa
Lewis Thorpe
Miguel Sulbaran
Randy Rosario
Felix Jorge
Stephen Gonsalves
Aaron Slegers
The Twins appear to only have two shortstops on the horizon within 2-3 years that could contribute to the Twins: Danny Santana & Jorge Polanco. Currently the position is occupied by Pedro Florimon, 2nd best defender at the position in the baseball, and Eduardo Escobar. Not the worst situation in the majors, but hardly enviable.

So, with the 2014 draft ahead. And all those factors listed.

1- Does Trea Turner's value inch up more so than usual?
2 - Is he even available for the Twins at #5?
3 - Does this trend of SS value and the Twins current depth at the position in the farm system make Trea Turner more attractive?

For some background on Trea Turner for those who don't know who he is. He has 80-grade speed and seems to have a decent hit tool grade from 60-70 or .280 to .300-ish (it's early, he's still in college). At this time, the top SS for the 2014 MLB Draft.
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Comments

  1. Dman's Avatar
    I like Turner a lot and I think if he hits and can keep from getting injured he will be a perennial All-Star. As much as the Twins need a Shortstop they need pitching far worse. Pitchers fail at higher rate and their careers are typically shorter so we need a lot of them if we plan on getting better for the long haul. I think the Twins will go pitcher in the first two rounds for sure and they should even though they will miss out on the dreamy shortstop prospect.
  2. beckmt's Avatar
    Twins should take the BPA in every draft. If that is a shortstop, so much the better. Twins have little depth there and Santana is no sure thing.
  3. AJOHN's Avatar
    I say keep drafting BPA if comes down to too close to call default to pitching.
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