Monday Morning Madness: July 15, 2013
by, 07-15-2013 at 05:00 AM (347 Views)
If you gave me a list of outcomes from this weekend's series with the Yankees, I would have ordered their likelihood as such:
- Yankees Sweep
- Yankees spontaneously combust; Yankee dust sweeps Twins
- Yankees win 2 of 3; Twins win game 2 because all Yankees oversleep
- Yankees win 2 of 3 fair and square
- Twins win 2 of 3 because all Yankees lock their keys in their cars
- Twins win 2 of 3 fair and square
- The universe ends abruptly
- Twins Sweep
Of course, watching the Yankees yesterday, they suck. The Twins still took care of business and it was fun to watch the Yankees look like a Little League team for a magic Sunday. Here are a few more thoughts from the series:
A couple weeks ago, I posited that if Brian Duensing can't get lefties out, he has no value. Why is Duensing struggling? I looked at his splits versus lefties over the past four seasons:
PA H% BA OBP SLG 2010 153 15.6 .161 .217 .239 2011 187 20.9 .217 .242 .280 2012 178 24.3 .250 .294 .384 2013 83 29.5 .303 .358 .400
H% is the percentage of batted balls that went for hits. You can see that his four-year trend does not look great. His hit rate has climbed like... like, really tall stairs and his BA/OBP/SLG have climbed along side. However, here's another chart that tells a slightly different story:
PA K% BB% K/BB xFIP BABIP 2010 153 22.2 4.6 4.86 3.13 .204 2011 187 20.3 3.2 6.33 2.89 .261 2012 178 15.7 5.1 3.11 4.04 .274 2013 83 24.4 6.1 4.00 2.63 .400
Duensing's peripheral stats aren't quite as depressing. In fact, by xFIP, he is actually better against lefties than he has ever been. The increase in his walk rate would be troubling if the sample wasn't so small. His BABIP is sky high and his strikeout rate is higher than ever, so if he has been unlucky, there is no reason to think he can't return to an effective lefty specialist. However, if he is simply getting more hittable, then it might not matter how much his BABIP drops. Again, the sample is small.
Oswaldo Arcia got a couple days off this weekend, and he needed them. It looked like he was trying to hit a home run every time up and he was yanking his head toward right field instead of watching the ball hit his bat. Then, he got optioned to AAA on Sunday. I can't say I hate the move, although I would rather see Arcia make adjustments while facing MLB pitching. I understand why the move was made though.
I don't really get the Chris Parmelee demotion though. Perhaps Parmelee's time to get consistent at bats with the Twins has passed. He's clearly not in the current plans and he's lost playing time to Clete Thomas of all people. Now, it seems that Chris Herrmann and Chris Colabello are coming up and they should both get consistent playing time. Thus, there has to be an odd Chris out. Parmelee may never get a solid two months with the Twins ever. Things certainly seem to be pointing in that direction.
I don't really care about Eduardo Escobar. Mostly because...
I like Pedro Florimon
I just like him. I know he really isn't a good hitter and he probably isn't a long-term solution at short, but I just like him. He plays great defense and makes some really spectacular plays. He also makes some really tough plays look really easy. He's quite streaky at the plate, but he can get some hits here and there. He's second to only Joe Mauer according to Fangraphs' WAR, so he clearly provides value. The Twins will likely look to upgrade at short in the coming seasons, but I wouldn't mind if Florimon is around for a bit longer.
Enough love, time for Madness!
Random Plug - Grant Brisbee is at it again
Brisbee presents a series of images that show what errors look like. It's fantastic. If you read my blog, you probably have noticed that I try to create silly posts like these. However, Brisbee is on a completely different level of silliness and I can't match him. You should just go read/look at this article and have a good laugh.
Photo Breakdown! - Oswaldo gets gum
Lost in the shuffle of Michael Tonkin's successful debut was a quest for a specific piece of gum that was caught on camera in the background. Here's the proof:
If you look, Arcia is pulling out massive quantities of gum. I find it unlikely that he will chew all of them.
Now, he seems to be sorting through, likely looking for the flavor of his choice. I hope he finds it.
It looks like he has, as he conscientiously puts the pieces that he will not chew back in the bucket for the next guy. What a dude!
Which Twin is most likely to be traded this season? 36 votes
- Josh Willingham - 10 votes
- Kevin Correia - 6 votes
- Mike Pelfrey - 2 votes
- Ryan Doumit - 7 votes
- Justin Morneau - 11 votes
Losing Morneau will be sad, but hopefully the Twins can bolster the Farm System at his expense. I would support trading all of these players, but I love to wheel and deal. I added a new poll, please vote when you have a moment.
Hey FSN, what does Paul Goldschmidt look like? Who does he play for? HAHAHA! lol. It is an impressive list though.
Link to Something Stupid I "wrote"
Speaking of silliness, I created an all bird all-star team. I think there's some dignified subtlety and I hope you enjoy it. Can birds play baseball? You'll find out.
Links to Something Good I read
Twins Daily is dominating the trade deadline talk and speculation. Each MLB team will be featured and sleeper prospects and dream targets are discussed. You can find a new one each day on the front page.
Twins Daily member Jorgenswest has also posted some great articles looking at what reasonable return would be for some of the Twins players who may be traded. He looked back at deals for similar players and analyzed the returns. If you didn't see these articles already, you should really check them out. The level of research is really helpful and impressive. He has written three as of when I am writing this:
Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey
Parting Chart - All Stars
I realized that not only are Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins both from Minnesota, but they both graduated in 2001 as well. Guess who else graduated in 2001? That's right, I did. I played baseball when I was young too. Now, I'm not going to lie and say I remember playing against Perkins or Mauer or anything like that, but it's certainly possible. Anyway, I created this little chart that highlights our baseball accomplishments, as we will always be linked together in history.
Joe Mauer Glen Perkins Brad Swanson High School Cretin-Derham Hall HS Stillwater Area HS Mounds View HS Class of 2001 2001 2001 College None University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Position Catcher Closer Left Couch MLB Debut 4/5/2004 9/21/2006 4/1/2015 Salary 23 Million 2.5 Million Less than Mauer made yesterday Best Known For Humble Midwestern charm Twitter Presence Putting Twins player heads on bird bodies All-Star Selections Six One Zero Most Impressive Baseball Feat 2009 AL MVP Pitched for Team USA in 2013 World Baseball Classic Caught a spike on a root in center field; hyper-extended knee Endorsements Land O'Lakes Milk Minnesota Twins Ticket Packages Voted for Nader in 2000 Facial Hair Sideburns Neckbeard Can't grow
And now you know that we are three completely different people. Have a nice week, everyone!