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Jeremy Nygaard

Draft Board v.4.0 (5/22)

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Version 4.0 of my “small board” posted as I am about to go on KFAN with John and Aaron to talk about… you guessed it… the MLB Draft.

A quick reminder: The Twins first pick (fourth overall) has a draft slot value of just around $4.5 million.

Though it should be pointed out – as I do each month – that the Twins very rarely deviate from the norm: In the last 20 years, the Twins have had 24 1st round draft picks (not counting supplemental picks). Of those 24 picks, 11 have been prep position players and eight have been college pitchers. The other two groups: college position players (4) and prep pitchers (1) have been much less represented.

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(Keep in mind, please, that this is not a “mock draft”. This is not a reflection of my top players. This is my attempt at stacking a “Twins Draft Board”, based on a number of things.)

1) Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford (previous: 2)

THE LATEST: If I had the first pick, I’d take Appel. If Appel drops to #4, the Twins will take him. But I don’t… and he won’t. I’m not sure that Houston has the cajones to make this pick, but I know the Cubs do.

2) Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma (previous: 1)

THE LATEST: Houston will have to weigh the pros and cons of taking Gray over Appel and trying to save a little bit of money. They might just be able to do it, even though the Astros are flirting with a lot of people right now. Unlike college, the Astros management won’t leave this party alone. I think they go with Gray, ultimately.

3) Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego (previous: 8)

THE LATEST: I’ll come out and tell you that I’m not as sold on Bryant as many, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t take him at #3. He’s got legitimate power. He’s improved his overall hit tool as well. There’s just something that makes me leery; but you can’t ignore what he’s done this year, even though his defensive home remains in question.

4) Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS (previous: 3)

THE LATEST: The first place you probably saw Stewart tied to the Twins was here. Now you’re seeing it everywhere. But like all drafts, things change. Stewart will probably be the top name on the Twins board when their pick comes up. Stewart has been throwing out the “I’m going to Texas A&M” line lately. He isn’t. But he’s going to use it to get the most money possible. My sense is that the Red Sox are going to get creative and make Stewart an offer that the Twins won’t match.

5) Braden Shipley, P, Nevada (previous: NR)

THE LATEST: Shipley did hit a little bit of a rough patch earlier this season, but got it back together to pitch his best game of the year last week. He’s been compared a lot to Kyle Zimmer, who went 5th to the Royals last year and signed for $3 million. Shipley is a great athlete and has a plus changeup to go with a mid-90s fastball. Shipley is a name tied to many teams in the top 10 as someone that might take a discount. Why not the Twins?

6) Reese McGuire, C, Washington HS (previous: NR)

THE LATEST: McGuire comes in a high-defensive, questionable-offensive package. The Twins have been tied to him and, even though he could easily head to San Diego, there are many believe he could cut a deal if selected in the top 5-7 picks. Though I don’t think the Twins go that route, it is a card they’ll have in their pocket.

7) Clint Frazier, OF, Georgia HS (previous: 9)

THE LATEST: Both Frazier and Meadows have seen their stock drop as of late. The Twins are said to prefer Frazier to Meadows, but not nearly enough to pop him at #4.

8) Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina (previous: 6)

THE LATEST: Moran, allegedly, is in the mix at #1. Only he isn’t. He’ll go to the Indians at #5 in all likelihood.

9) Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas (previous: 7)

THE LATEST: Stanek still has time to move up the board. He’s someone the Twins would typically consider. The fact of the matter is, though, Shipley has had better results with similar upside.

10) Trey Ball (previous: NR)

THE LATEST: Ball is a hard-throwing, athletic lefty. The Twins are going to kick the tires on him and, if he’s interested in making a deal like McGuire is rumored to be considering, you might start to hear more steam on this. Ball is a guy that fits in the 8-11 range talent-wise, but could offer a huge reward based on upside.

Feel free to discuss. You can follow me on Twitter (@jeremynygaard) for draft updates.


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