Prospect movement trends 2012-2013
by, 04-08-2013 at 10:49 PM (403 Views)
It is time to return to an analysis of the farm system in terms of how prospects by position are moving up, moving down, appearing, disappearing, or reappearing on this year's list.
This is an attempt to gauge the overall status of the system from year to year and entails, indirectly, an analysis of the 2012 draft, but also the development of players still in the system and the emergence of talent up into the big leagues.
I used the 2012 compilation list from myself, Seth Stohs, and Twinkie Town. For 2013, I stuck with my list, in part because both of the other lists, as well as Gleeman's list, are pretty similar to mine anyway. In fact they tend to exactly embellish--perhaps appropriately--the main conclusion of this analysis anyway.
In sum, the results are not that dramatic. By position, a simple way to view the prospect list movement between 2012 and 2013 is as follows:
2B: even (lower number resulting from Dozier moving to the Twins)
3B: slightly downward (this with Sano and Harrison still candidates)
SS: slightly upward
This projects to be an overall improvement in the system, and I have been conservative in the impact, to some degree, in three areas: 1) right-handed pitching may be vastly improved as only 2013 can tell, 2) Danny Santana and Niko Goodrum both staying at SS could be huge, 3) Sano *or* Harrison staying at third creates much more balance.
Methodology: I analyzed the list by tiers: top 5, 15, 25, 35, and 50 and then counted the number of prospects at each tier by position.
Right-handed starters has supplanted outfielders as appearing the most on the list in the top 50, though outfielders are still very well represented. RHS also appear most in the top 35 and top 25 as well. This might not be so surprising given the last two drafts, but keep in mind that people like Manuel Soliman, Adrian Salcedo, and Alex Wimmers have plummeted in the meantime.
The system stagnated a bit at catcher, first base, and second base. Herrmann and Pinto are the only clear prospects at the catcher position, Dalton Hicks needs to establish himself this year to be a full-fledged prospect and Chris Colabello is aging, and finally, only Eddie Rosario makes the second base spot bright.
The big problem spots are in left-handed pitching (especially starters), 3B (really a big problem if neither Sano nor Harrison stay there), and catching (especially if neither Matt Koch nor Danny Rohlfing develop quickly).
There will be a mid-season update on the system as the 2013 year plays out and how the June draft affects everything.