What is Average?
by, 01-08-2013 at 08:55 AM (388 Views)
The following data will be included in the upcoming Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2013. Check back later this week for details on how you can get a copy.
One of the many ways to look at and find meaning in minor league statistics is to compare them to the league average. Its just one piece to the prospect puzzle. Below you will find league average numbers, but consider the age of individuals on a team. For instance, the average age of a hitter in the Midwest League was 21.6. Then realize that Miguel Sano, who put up numbers well above league average, turned 19 years old a month into the 2012 season. The other side is someone like catcher Matt Koch who was 23 ½ years old when the season started.
Below you will find the league averages for each of the leagues the Twins have an affiliate along with the Twins affiliates. This is shown for both hitters and pitchers. Ill give some thoughts after each grouping but certainly welcome your additional comments, feedback and questions.
For hitters, Ill show, average age, BA/OBP/SLG (OPS).
For pitchers, Ill show, average age, ERA, WHIP.
ROCHESTER RED WINGS
Intl Hitters 27.3, .257/.328/.389 (.717)
ROCH Hitters 27.1, .251/.315/.377 (.692)
Intl Pitchers 27.1, 3.92 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
ROCH Pitchers 26.1, 4.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
AAA is always an interesting league when it comes to ages. For instance, the Red Wings had 24-year-olds like Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier on their roster, but they also had 32-year-old Matt Carson. The Red Wings pitchers youth compared to league average was likely brought down by 23-year-olds Liam Hendriks and Deolis Guerra.
NEW BRITAIN ROCK CATS
Eastern Hitters 24.5, .260/.330/.392 (.723)
Rock Cats Hitters 24.6, .262/.333/.395 (.728)
Eastern Pitchers 24.7, 3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Rock Cats Pitchers 24.6, 4.00 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
As you can see, the Rock Cats ages were pretty much equal to the Eastern League average. Their performance was also right around league average as well. 28-year-old Chris Colabellos age was evened out by some other key players on the Rock Cats roster. 22-year-old Aaron Hicks filled the stat line very well and was a terrific leadoff hitter. Minor League Hitter of the Year Oswaldo Arcia turned 21 years old just before he came up to the Rock Cats. Minor League Pitcher of the Year BJ Hermsen was 22 years old all season.
FT. MYERS MIRACLE
FSL Hitters 22.7, .255/.326/.373 (.699)
FM Hitters 22.5, .250/.329/.371 (.700)
FSL Pitchers 22.9, 3.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
FM Pitchers 23.1, 4.23 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
As you can see, the Ft. Myers hitters performed at league average. So why were the Miracle so bad? Well, their pitchers were much worse than league average. Also, as you can see, if Arcia or Hermsen has spent the full seasons at Ft. Myers, they still would have been younger than league average and yet they were both terrific at AA. The same can be said for Danny Santana who had a breakout season in 2012. And as much as Levi Michael struggled, he would still be younger than league average in 2013 if he stayed with the Miracle.
MWL Hitters 21.6, .254/.326/.379 (.705)
Beloit Hitters 22.0, .260/.349/.395 (.736)
MWL Pitchers 21.9, 3.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Beloit Pitchers 22.1, 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
It surprised me that the Beloit hitters were older than league average because of how young Miguel Sano is compared to league average. Eddie Rosario also did not turn 21 until after the season completed. People often wonder why I dont have Nate Roberts ranked higher on my Twins prospect lists. He had turned 23 years old before spring training started. For him to be about league average age, he will need to skip Ft. Myers and go right to New Britain, which may be possible. Why were the Snappers so good in 2012? Well, the offense was well better than average, and their pitching was very good compared to league average. Starters like Jason Wheeler, Matt Tomshaw, David Hurlbut, and Cole Johnson were all 2011 draft picks, pitching in their first full season, but pitching very well.
Appy Hitters 20.2, .254/.329/.382 (.711)
E-Town Hitters 20.1, .279/.360/.449 (.809)
Appy Pitchers 20.6, 4.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
E-Town Pitchers 20.5, 3.14 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
One thing we hear all the time is that Elizabethton is always so good because their players are kept there too long. Well, based on 2012 data, the E-Twins hitters and pitchers were just slightly younger than league average. Sure, the college pitchers just drafted were about 21, but a lot of the other players, international signings such as Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco or high school picks from previous years. At the end of the day, the E-Twins are not older than other teams in the league. That said, look at the discrepancy in performance. Hitters had nearly a .100 point OPS better than league average. Pitchers ERA was a full run less than league average. Another tremendous job by manager Ray Smith and hitting coach Jeff Reed.
GCL Hitters 19.6, .242/.318/.338 (.656)
GCL Twins Hitters 20.1, .239/.310/.338 (.647)
GCL Pitchers 20.1, 3.43 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
GCL Twins Pitchers 19.6, 2.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
The Twins GCL hitters were a little older than average while the pitchers were a little bit younger. The pitchers did very well relative to league average while the hitters were just shy of league average.
Again, this is one of many tools that I use to help develop prospect rankings. Does a player who is a little older than league average not have a chance to become a quality big leaguer? Of course he can. Is a player who is playing way above where his age would indicate he should be automatically going to be a solid big league performer? Of course not. Each player needs to be evaluated individually and based on his own merits. This information is just a good tool to understand where the player is age-wise relative to where he is playing.