A Full Forty - Dissecting the 40-Man Roster (Pitchers)
by, 11-28-2012 at 05:00 AM (1149 Views)
Originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com
Last week the Minnesota Twins added eight players to their 40-man roster, maxing out their roster with 40 players. The Twins will likely remove at least one player prior to the upcoming Rule 5 draft, but for now, the Twins do not have room for any additions. If Spring Training started tomorrow, here are the 40 players that would be competing for a coveted 25-man roster spot and a place on the 2013 Opening Day roster. We'll start with the Pitchers today, and look at the position players later this week.
Right Handed Pitchers (Age, Position, Highest 2012 Level)
Alex Burnett - 25, Reliever, MLB - Burnett appeared in 67 games for the Twins in 2012 and posted the best ERA of his career (3.52). Unfortunately, Burnett struck out batters at the lowest rate in his career (4.5/9), while still walking more than three batters per nine innings and his 2012 success is unlikely to continue in 2013, if he makes the 25-man roster, it will be as a middle-inning, low-leverage, reliever.
Jared Burton - 31, Reliever, MLB - Like Alex Burnett, Burton also posted the best ERA of his career (2.18). Unlike Burnett, Burton's success came from an increase in stike out rates and a decrease in walk rates. Burton is almost a lock for the 25-man roster, and will likely be the eighth inning set up man.
Cole De Vries - 27, Starter, MLB - De Vries was a long shot to make the 25-man roster in 2012, but because of a string of injuries and generally poor play from other Twins starters, De Vries started 16 games en route to a 4.11 ERA. De Vries is a typical Twins-type pitcher, low walks, low strike outs, and is a long shot to make the 25-man roster again in 2013, but unless the Twins acquire multiple starting pitchers through trades or free agency, the Twins do not have a lot of other competent options.
Casey Fien - Casey Fien, Reliever, MLB - Fien returned to Major League action after spending 2011 in the Minors. Fien had several surprisingly good appearances toward the end of the year, earning a 2.06 ERA to go along with 32Ks in just 35.0 IP. Fien's previous MLB performance and Minor League track record does not indicate that he's likely to continue to perform at a high level, but he's gained the trust of Ron Gardenhire and has a farily good chance to make the 25-man roster with a strong performance this spring.
Kyle Gibson - Kyle Gibson, Starter, AAA - Gibson spent all of 2012 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and pitched in four different leagues during his rehab, including the Arizona Fall League where the big right-hander was said to be consistently throwing 93-94 MPH with good control. If fully healthy, Gibson is in line to be one of the Twins five starters in 2013.
Deolis Guerra - 23, Reliever, AAA - Guerra split time in 2012 between Double-A New Britain and Triple-A Rochester and posted a 4.11 ERA in his first full season as a reliever, with high strike out numbers (9.1K/9) and low walk totals (3.3/9). At 23 Guerra is still fairly young for AAA and I expect him to start the season in Rochester, though he will have a chance to play in Minnesota before the season ends. Edit: Per John Bonnes and ScottyB, Deolis Guerra is out of options, so he'll need to make the 25-man roster or risk being claimed off of waivers.
Liam Hendriks - 23, Starter, MLB - Hendriks struggled to turn his Minor League success into Major League succes and spent the better part of 2012 searching for his first big league victory. Hendriks finished the year 1-8 with a 5.59 ERA and only 50 strike outs over 85.1 innings. Ideally Hendriks would start 2013 in Rochester, working to fine tune his command against lesser hitters before being asked to join the Twins. If Hendriks makes the Opening Day roster it will likely be because the Twins lack other viable options rather than their belief in Hendriks ability to succeed at a high level.
B.J. Hermsen - 22, Starter, AA - Hermsen is another Twins-type pitcher with low strike out numbers and in Hermsen's case, extremely low walk rates (1.6/9). Hermsen is unlikely to merit serious consideration for the starting rotation in 2013 because he has no experience above AA. Hermsen has continually put up ERAs around 3, and if he can continue to put up good numbers in AAA he should earn himself a September call-up and, if the Twins do not add a couple of free agents on multi-year deals, could be a candidate to start for the Twins in 2014.
Lester Oliveros - 24, Reliever, MLB - Oliveros had Tommy John surgery in 2012 and will spend most, if not all, of 2013 rehabbing his elbow. He will be moved to the 60-day DL once Spring Training begins, opening up a roster spot.
Josh Roenicke - 30, Reliever, MLB - Claimed off of waivers from the Colorado Rockies, Roenicke is unlikely to start the season in the Twins bullpen and instead the Twins will probably attempt to pass Roenicke through waivers later this spring and use him as roster depth in Rochester. However, Roenicke did post an impressive 3.25 ERA last season with the Rockies, so the Twins might be willing to give him a longer look in Spring Training before ultimately relegating him to the Minor Leagues.
Anthony Swarzak - 27, Long Man/Spot Starter, MLB - The Twins have seen enough of Swarzak over the past couple of years (198.2 IP) to know what they have out of the 27-year old. Swarzak has struggled when he's been asked to start, but as a long man in the bullpen he's performed moderately well (5.79 ERA as Starter, 4.03 as reliever). I believe that the Twins will bring Swarzak back in a similar role in 2013, but if they are intent on finding a spot for B.J. Hermsen, this could be somewhere they'd be willing to make a switch.
Michael Tonkin - 23, Reliever/Closer, High-A - While Tonkin has never pitched above High-A Fort Myers, he posted a 12.6 K/9 in 2012 and followed that up with a spectacular Arizona Fall League performance posting a 2.45 ERA over 14.2 innings with a 0.75 WHIP. Tonkin will likely start 2012 at Double-A New Britain, but he could certainly be in Rochester by the All-Star break.
Tim Wood - 30, Closer, Reliever, MLB - Wood was claimed off of waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates after spending all of 2012 in Triple-A. As a likely closer, Wood does not have the kind of strike out numbers you would typically expect, but he's posted a 3.49 and 2.19 ERA each of the last two seasons in Triple-A so he's doing something right. You have to wonder why a guy with a 2.19 ERA did not get a September call-up with the Pirates as they were once again spiraling their way to another losing record. Before his successful 2011 and 2012 seasons, Wood struggled mightily in the PCL, splitting time between the Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers systems. Do not expect to see Wood on the 25-man roster this spring, as he's likely to spend most of the season in Rochester.
Left Handed Pitchers
Scott Diamond - 26, Starter, MLB - Diamond is the lone Twins starter to be guaranteed a spot in the 2013 rotation, so as long as he makes it through Spring Training without injury he has a secure spot on the 25-man roster. Diamond is now 2 years removed from being drafted by the Twins in the Rule 5 draft and while his strike out numbers are dreadfully low (12.6% strike out rate), he manages to keep the base paths clear by limiting walks and inducing ground balls. If Diamond can repeat his 2012 numbers the Twins will be ecstatic.
Brian Duensing - 29, Reliever/LOOGY/Starter, MLB - With the Twins again searching for answers from their starting rotation Duensing given another chance to win a spot as a starter. He didn't fare well. Overall, Duensing has a 4.57 ERA as a starter compared to just a 3.38 ERA out of the pen. As a starter Duensing is subject to facing a lot more right handed batters (.302/.358/.473, AGV/OBP/SLG), whereas in the bullpen he can be used selectively against left handed batters (.217/.261/.298). Hopefully the Twins understand who Duensing is at this point in his career and keep him in the pen. He's a lock to be on the 25-man roster and should begin the year as the teams primary LOOGY (Left-handed One Out guY).
Pedro Hernandez - 23, Starter, MLB - Hernandez is one of the players the Twins acquired in the Francisco Liriano deal with the White Sox. Hernandez has just one disastrous Major League start, and has only 52.1 innings at Triple-A. The Twins should send Hernandez back to Rochester to start 2013, and unless things go poorly for the Twins rotation again this year, he's unlikely to put on a big league uniform anytime before September.
Glen Perkins - 29, Reliever/Closer, MLB - After signing a 4 year $11.85 million dollar deal this past winter, Glen Perkins went out and had one of the best years of his career, posting a 2.56 ERA to go along with 78 strike outs and just 16 walks in 70.1 innings. Perkins will start 2013 as the Twins primary closer, a role he shared at times in 2012 with Matt Capps and Jared Burton.
Tyler Robertson - 24, Reliever/LOOGY, MLB - Making his Major League debut in 2012, Robertson performed poorly, but his Minor League performance in 2012, prior to his stint with the Twins, show the signs of life you like to see from a big left-hander. He gets plenty of strike outs (10.4/9 innings), and he doesn't give up a lot of a home runs. For Robertson the biggest issue is going to be control, as he walked 14 batters in his 25 innings for the Twins a year ago. Robertson is great against left-handed batters (.190/.268/.317), but if he cannot learn to get out right-handed hitters (.290/.436/.484) he is not going to stick around for long. Robertson should start the year as the Twins #2 LOOGY and a middle reliever.
Caleb Thielbar - 25, Reliever, AAA - Thielbar made it as far as AAA in 2012, but at the end of 2011 he had never pitched above High-A. Thielbar likely needs some additional Minor League seasoning before the Twins are ready to put him on the 25-man roster, especially after a terrible Arizona Fall League permanence in which he posted an 11.05 ERA with 8 walks in just 13.0 innings.
The Twins definitely have plenty of arms on the 40-man roster, but they don't have a lot of talent in the bunch. If the Twins start the season with this same group of arms they'll have Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, and Liam Hendriks as their one-two-three starters, and will be well on their way to another 90 loss season. It is more likely that the Twins sign at least two free agent pitchers, and bring in another arm via trade, but until anything happens, there is not a lot of hope readily available in Minnesota.
For a look at Twins position players on the 40-man roster, click over to Knuckleballs.