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Willihammer

Sam Deduno: King of Fielding Dependent Pitching?

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Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc.

Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins.

Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins. 0.3 of which is owed to BIP-wins (ability to induce weak contact on balls in play), and 0.7 wins for stranding runners.

Carry that out over 33 starts, and that is .9 wins due to Deduno's ability to induce weak contact, and 2.4 wins due to his ability to control the run game and pitch well from the stretch. An astounding 3.3 FDP per season, dwarfing Hellickson's 2.3 FDP-wins/season.

Is that sustainable?

It has been speculated that the key to Deduno's success, despite his walk rate, is the difficulty hitters seem to have in hitting his filthy stuff with good wood. But that appears to be a small part of it. Most of his success is in stranding runners.

For comparison, the leader in LOB-wins over the last three years is Ryan Vogelson, with 2.7 LOB-wins combined (.9 / season).

So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable.

So, add it all up, Deduno's current FIP-produced win rate (measure by WAR), is 0.7. Plus 0.9 BIP-wins, plus, say, a conservative sustainable extimate of LOB-wins at 1.0, and you have a pitcher who has a positive value of 2.6 wins total. This places him between Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza, in comparison to pitchers over the last three years, on the RA9-wins leaderboard.

Not the king of FDP, but not in bad company either.
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Comments

  1. John Bonnes's Avatar
    Cool post.

    Do you have any links that talk about the statistics you're quoting? In case someone wants to learn more about FDP?
  2. Willihammer's Avatar
    FDP explained by fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...dent-pitching/

    You can query FDP leaders by doing a search in the Pitching leaders section. Very flexible query.
  3. Willihammer's Avatar
    So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable.
    I worded that wrongly. What I meant is that Deduno's walk rate will continue to hold down his FIP and WAR figures but if he can continue to induce weak contact on balls in play and hold runners at a clip of maybe .7 to 1.0 LOB wins/year, his success will be sustainable.
  4. Parker Hageman's Avatar
    Great stuff Willihammer.
  5. Teflon's Avatar
    A pitcher who puts a larger proportion of his baserunners on via walks compared to hits should strand a higher percentage than pitchers who's ratio is more skewed to hits since walks only advance runners a base at a time. I made this observation in another post and was skoffed at. Explain to me the fault in this logic.
    Updated 08-30-2012 at 03:57 PM by Teflon
  6. Willihammer's Avatar
    Indeed a walk carries a lower run value than even a single, according to wOBA which values walks at something like .59 and singles at about .67. I don't know exact off hand but it is less.
  7. PopRiveter's Avatar
    I've never seen anyone score from second on a walk.
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