Yep looking to 2013 already.
by, 09-17-2012 at 02:51 PM (1228 Views)
I am a very frustrated Twins fan right now. I am looking at what could be a complete overhaul, or a spending spree for 2013. I am not sure what to root for. As of this second you have to look at what the Twins could throw on the mound next opening day roster.
Duensing? (Please no)
Blackburn? (Please no)
So lets look at diving into free agency this off season, and see who I can peg off the list. I am going to just shoot out the top 10 names and my opinions of what I think, and knowing the Twins for years what they might think, and lets put together a SP rotation.
Greinke-- $21 million a year, I don't think I would do it, I am pretty sure the Twins will not do it. I would consider a 4 year $80million, but he is going to get way more than that.
Peavy-- I like Peavy, He would get about $18 million a year. I am pretty sure this is too steep for the Twins as well, although I would also try for a 4 year deal around $75million, he is going to get more than that.
Kuroda-- He is too old, his value is too much for the Twins for a 2 year player, he will get about $15M a year.
Dempster-- Not a fan, going to be paid too much $15M a year
Lohse-- Former Twin, always consistent, I like him, he has found a comfort zone in the NL, I think he will get overpaid, I don't think the Twins are interested in $14M a year
Sanchez-- Talk about a down year for a highlight player, whoever signs him is going to take a gamble, I don't think the Twins are gambling $13M a year
Jackson-- same name that came up last 2 years for the Twins, value is at $11 M, if they haven't gotten him yet, I don't think he is coming.
Colon, Saunders-- I wouldn't take either of these guys, already in down parts of careers.
Feldman, Lewis-- both World Series guys, both have a 2.2 WAR, both would be getting paid around $9M a year. Neither of these guys were really impressive this year for the Rangers, Feldman is still relatively young, if I were to take stab it would be for him, even though he is throwing up a +5 ERA so far this year.
So those are the top 10 Free Agents on the board, do you see any one of those guys in a Twins uniform? I really don't. I am going to throw out 3 names that are past the top 10 that I would take a chance on. First:
Villanueva- 19th best SP in free agency, he has pitched for the Blue Jays, and anybody who pitches in that division gets about a .5ERA nock off, pitching anywhere else IMO. 3.42 ERA in 14 starts, 118 IP, his value is $6.4 Million a year. About a K, an inning. This guy is 29, and I would take a chance on somebody like this.
Dice K- I know what you would think, we don't need another injury bug, but the deal is, if we are going to gamble on somebody, which we do every year, I say lets give him a chance. He is 32, coming off injury, he didn't put up good numbers right away, I think he is coming back strong, reports are good, I would even overpay, to take a chance at him. We need a top of the rotation guy, he could be it at a discounted price.
Pavano- I really think Pavano wants to stay, I would not pay an extra penny of his expected worth, which is tough to say because of injury. I don't think it is a big chance on him, I mean look at the 3 years previous he has had 200 IP, if we can get him at a (I like the organization, I want to stay) price, I don't think that is a problem as long as he is recognized as a number 2-3 guy.
So after all of that searching, and by the way here is the list in order, to take a look at and have your own opinion. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...,2140,305,1904
At this point all I can say is this is what I would do!?!
I would take the biggest chances on Villanueva and Dice K, lets say we got those guys. I would say Baker wouldn't be ready to go opening day, I would give hope that Gibson may be, we will be optimistic, so then you would have the void of one of these guys, (Pavano, Hendriks, Deduno) I am just putting one of them in there. It could look like this.
How much would that cost the Twins next year to have that starting rotation, then having Baker coming back off of injury, and pay him the $9.25M next year, which I don't think will happen, but I think the Twins will try to resign him for less, and do so. Is $25.5 to little to say that could happen, is $25.5 too much to completely revamp the starting lineup? The Twins spent $24 on SP in 2012. What can you expect, if you find an Ace, that is $20 for one pitcher, if you look at this we added 3. You take Span off the books, which you may be able to swap one of those guys for a pitcher if that is what he gets traded for. I am not sure, but I think this is what I would do. To be competitive next season you are going to have to spend money, if you don't completely gut everything including the managers, and start over if you can.