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"And we'll see ya' ... tomorrow night."

Yep looking to 2013 already.

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I am a very frustrated Twins fan right now. I am looking at what could be a complete overhaul, or a spending spree for 2013. I am not sure what to root for. As of this second you have to look at what the Twins could throw on the mound next opening day roster.

Gibson?
Baker?
Diamond
Walters?
De Vries?
Deduno?
Hendriks?
Duensing? (Please no)
Blackburn? (Please no)

So lets look at diving into free agency this off season, and see who I can peg off the list. I am going to just shoot out the top 10 names and my opinions of what I think, and knowing the Twins for years what they might think, and lets put together a SP rotation.

Greinke-- $21 million a year, I don't think I would do it, I am pretty sure the Twins will not do it. I would consider a 4 year $80million, but he is going to get way more than that.

Peavy-- I like Peavy, He would get about $18 million a year. I am pretty sure this is too steep for the Twins as well, although I would also try for a 4 year deal around $75million, he is going to get more than that.

Kuroda-- He is too old, his value is too much for the Twins for a 2 year player, he will get about $15M a year.

Dempster-- Not a fan, going to be paid too much $15M a year

Lohse-- Former Twin, always consistent, I like him, he has found a comfort zone in the NL, I think he will get overpaid, I don't think the Twins are interested in $14M a year

Sanchez-- Talk about a down year for a highlight player, whoever signs him is going to take a gamble, I don't think the Twins are gambling $13M a year

Jackson-- same name that came up last 2 years for the Twins, value is at $11 M, if they haven't gotten him yet, I don't think he is coming.

Colon, Saunders-- I wouldn't take either of these guys, already in down parts of careers.

Feldman, Lewis-- both World Series guys, both have a 2.2 WAR, both would be getting paid around $9M a year. Neither of these guys were really impressive this year for the Rangers, Feldman is still relatively young, if I were to take stab it would be for him, even though he is throwing up a +5 ERA so far this year.

So those are the top 10 Free Agents on the board, do you see any one of those guys in a Twins uniform? I really don't. I am going to throw out 3 names that are past the top 10 that I would take a chance on. First:

Villanueva- 19th best SP in free agency, he has pitched for the Blue Jays, and anybody who pitches in that division gets about a .5ERA nock off, pitching anywhere else IMO. 3.42 ERA in 14 starts, 118 IP, his value is $6.4 Million a year. About a K, an inning. This guy is 29, and I would take a chance on somebody like this.

Dice K- I know what you would think, we don't need another injury bug, but the deal is, if we are going to gamble on somebody, which we do every year, I say lets give him a chance. He is 32, coming off injury, he didn't put up good numbers right away, I think he is coming back strong, reports are good, I would even overpay, to take a chance at him. We need a top of the rotation guy, he could be it at a discounted price.

Pavano- I really think Pavano wants to stay, I would not pay an extra penny of his expected worth, which is tough to say because of injury. I don't think it is a big chance on him, I mean look at the 3 years previous he has had 200 IP, if we can get him at a (I like the organization, I want to stay) price, I don't think that is a problem as long as he is recognized as a number 2-3 guy.

So after all of that searching, and by the way here is the list in order, to take a look at and have your own opinion. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...,2140,305,1904

At this point all I can say is this is what I would do!?!

I would take the biggest chances on Villanueva and Dice K, lets say we got those guys. I would say Baker wouldn't be ready to go opening day, I would give hope that Gibson may be, we will be optimistic, so then you would have the void of one of these guys, (Pavano, Hendriks, Deduno) I am just putting one of them in there. It could look like this.

Dice K
Villanueva
Gibson
Pavano
Diamond

How much would that cost the Twins next year to have that starting rotation, then having Baker coming back off of injury, and pay him the $9.25M next year, which I don't think will happen, but I think the Twins will try to resign him for less, and do so. Is $25.5 to little to say that could happen, is $25.5 too much to completely revamp the starting lineup? The Twins spent $24 on SP in 2012. What can you expect, if you find an Ace, that is $20 for one pitcher, if you look at this we added 3. You take Span off the books, which you may be able to swap one of those guys for a pitcher if that is what he gets traded for. I am not sure, but I think this is what I would do. To be competitive next season you are going to have to spend money, if you don't completely gut everything including the managers, and start over if you can.

Comments

  1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    Replace Dice K with Shaun Marcum and this isn't bad at all other than Pavano. The Twins should sign one and trade (Morneau) for one.
  2. OldManWinter's Avatar
    Mormeau is fine as a Twin. Find other trade bait.
  3. ScottyB's Avatar
    Dice-K not gonna happen - he's a Boras client, and Boras will ask way too much. Jackson is now looking for stability, probably a 3-year deal, and since he left the Boras agency might be signed for a reasonable contract. Villanueva wants out of Toronto and could be an interesting choice. There is concern about the number of innings he could pitch since he's mainly been a reliever. Marcum does have potential. One other guy I'd look at is Brandon McCarthy, and of course Baker on an incentive-laden contract with an option for 2014. I'd even consider Liriano back on the cheap.

    I would trade Span and Morneau this winter for high upside, lower level pitching prospects who might be in the rotation in 2014 or 2015. I'd sign 2 non-pitching free agents - Torii to a 2-year deal and Eric Chavez for the bench.

    My ideal team:

    Revere CF
    Mauer C/1B/DH
    Hunter RF/DH
    Willingham LF/DH
    Doumit DH/C/OF
    Plouffe 3B
    Parmelee 1B/OF
    Dozier 2B/SS
    Florimon SS

    Bench: Mastroianni OF; Hermann C/OF; Carroll IF; Chavez 3B/1B

    Starters: (Take your pick) Diamond; Baker; Gibson; Pavano; Markum; Villanueva; McCarthy; Jackson; Liriano; Hendricks; Deduno; De Vries

    Pen: Perkins; Burton; Deunsing; Fien; Burnett; (pick 2) - Swarzak; Waldrop; Guerra; Robertson; and Oliveros
    Updated 09-19-2012 at 08:37 AM by ScottyB
  4. johnnydakota's Avatar
    with the rays looking to hold down payroll and b.j. upton not a sure bet to return , maybe span to tampa for shields , he has 2 option years at a combined 23 million,he was ranked last week as the #13th best starterin mlb, add in diamond and deuno as your 3rd and 4th starter, that leaves you searching for a true number 2, not pavano , not baker ,not marquis... but a true #2,
    signing scott baker to an incentive ladden contract with a option year is a given , between baker and gibson , 1 should be able to come at the end of may or june to replace ,and contribute to the rotation, that leave middle infield hep and at least 2 quality reliever we need to add for next year
  5. rogrulz30's Avatar
    I am def in favor of signing Baker, I do believe the Baker/Gibson idea is good, one of those guys should make it. I do not want to have Morneau leave, but I am open for Span leaving. I think if we let Span/Casilla go, we can still build a rotation, we will have to spend money, not sure if they are looking to do that, but the window is closing, either you go for it, or unload it all in my opinion. WE do have chance to get guys in free agency, only problem is we will have to overpay, knowing the Twins situation, this could be a good thing for the fans, because the franchise has to do it, which means we should get a couple guys.
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