2 1st round draft picks not signing this year?
by, 07-10-2012 at 12:10 PM (1352 Views)
According to MLBTradeRumors, both Kevin Gausman (1,4 Orioles) and Mark Appel (1,8 Pirates) are both leaning against signing with their draft teams, both for different reasons.
When teams learned that Appel, a Scott Boras client, wanted a $6 million+ bonus, he fell down all the way to the Pirates at the #8 pick. This means that instead of being able to get that much money for getting picked at #'s 1-3, he dropped to #8, and the most the Pirates can offer him without losing a first round draft pick in 2013 is $3.84 million, and the Pirates don't want to lose that pick. Therefore, Appel is not likely to sign with the Pirates unless he unbends and accepts the lower money.
Gausman, on the other hand, wants to return to LSU to win the College World Series as he believes the Tigers have the personnel to do it. Therefore, Gausman, while he is still in talks with the Orioles, seems more interested in returning for his senior year.
Not that I want the Twins to totally collapse in the second half, but if both of these pitchers are available in next years draft, especially Gausman, that could seriously help the Twins out. Unfortunately, if Gausman does really well, then the Twins might need to have the worst record in the Majors to have a chance at him. Therefore, while it may be painful to watch them be bad enough to earn a draft pick high enough to draft Gausman, he would do a lot to help the Twins rebuild their thin high-echelon pitching ranks in the Minors.
In case you were wondering, the Twins currently have the 6th worst record in the Majors at 36-49 and a .424 winning %, with Philly as #7 at 37-50 and a .425 winning %. The five teams ahead of the Twins are Seattle with a .414 winning %, San Diego with a .391 winning %, Cubs and Rockies tied at a .388 winning %, and Houston with the worst W-L record at a .384 winning %.
I would think that to get Gausman, the Twins would probably need anywhere from the 1st-3rd worst record, as it is unlikely that his stock will drop over the next year (unless he gets a major injury) and more likely that it will rise, and to rise from the #4 overall pick, you have the #1-3 overall picks.