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  • 28 Players, 28 Projections

    Happy Twins Opening Day to all of you!! After a disappointing 2011 season, a long, cold offseason, here we are. Opening Day! It's a great feeling as a fan. I can only imagine what's going through the minds of the players who will be making their first Opening Day roster. Guys like Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes and Liam Hendriks have never experienced what they will today (or Monday at Target Field, for that matter).

    The Twins 25-man roster is set. Kyle Waldrop and Scott Baker are on the Disabled List, and Jason Marquis is in New Britain for a couple of starts.

    28 Players. 28 Projections.

    If there is one over-riding theme for Opening Day, it's optimism. Or at least it should be. With that in mind, I'll give my predictions for each of the 28 players. Feel free to argue, dispute and add to this with thoughts, comments and predictions.

    The Pitchers:

    The key for any team is their pitching, so let's start there. It's impossible to predict wins and losses with any certainty, so I'll just give ERA, WHIP, and any other keys for a player.

    Carl Pavano:
    4.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP... 195 innings... 3.9 K/9... 1.9 BB/9

    Francisco Liriano:
    3.31 ERA, 1.19 WHIP... 193 innings... 9.1 K/9... 3.1 BB/9

    Nick Blackburn:
    4.29 ERA, 1.38 WHIP... 200 innings... 4.9 K/9... 1.9 BB/9

    Liam Hendriks:
    3.94 ERA, 1.26 WHIP... 7.2 K/9... 2.1 BB/9

    Scott Baker:
    5.15 ERA, 1.52 WHIP... 6.8 K/9... 3.4 BB/9

    Jason Marquis:
    4.61 ERA, 1.46 WHIP... 4.6 K/9... 3.1 BB/9

    Matt Capps:
    3.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP... 6.8 K/9... 2.1 BB/9 (28 Saves)

    Glen Perkins:
    2.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP... 9.2 K/9... 2.6 BB/9 (8 Saves)

    Jared Burton:
    3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP... 6.2 K/9... 3.8 BB/9 (3 Saves)

    Brian Duensing:
    2.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP... 7.1 K/9...2.1 BB/9

    Anthony Swarzak:
    4.53 ERA, 1.39 WHIP... 5.1 K/9...3.1 BB/9

    Jeff Gray:
    4.10 ERA, 1.31 WHIP... 4.4 K/9... 3.6 BB/9

    Matt Maloney:
    3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP... 7.1 K/9...2.7 BB/9

    Alex Burnett:
    If he gets to go to Rochester for 2-3 consecutive months, he can come back and be good. If he stays up all year, it could be scary again.

    Kyle Waldrop:
    3.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP... 5.5 K/9... 2.5 BB/9

    The Hitters:

    Denard Span:
    .290/.375/.445 (.820) - 28 doubles, 8 triples, 6 HR, 50 RBI, 31 SB

    Jamey Carroll:
    .275/.345/.325 (.670) - 16 doubles, 3 triples, 0 HR, 30 RBI, 8 SB

    Joe Mauer:
    .320/.395/.490 (.885) - 38 doubles, 1 triple, 11 HR, 82 RBI

    Justin Morneau:
    .275/.340/.445 (.785) - 24 doubles, 0 triples, 17 HR, 71 RBI

    Josh Willingham:
    .255/.340/.465 (.805) - 23 doubles, 0 triples, 27 HR, 88 RBI

    Ryan Doumit:
    .270/.335/.420 (.755) - 18 doubles, 0 triples, 11 HR, 55 RBI

    Danny Valencia:
    .285/.335/.460 (.795) - 32 doubles, 0 triples, 19 HR, 75 RBI

    Chris Parmelee:
    .260/.330/.380 (.710) - 18 doubles, 0 triples, 9 HR, 48 RBI

    Alexi Casilla:
    .255/.310/.345 (.655) - 16 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 14 SB

    Trevor Plouffe:
    .260/.315/.450 (.765) - 19 doubles, 1 triple, 11 HR, 42 RBI

    Luke Hughes:
    .245/.305/.390 (.695) - 15 doubles, 1 triple, 8 HR, 33 RBI

    Ben Revere:
    .290/.335/.350 (.685) - 9 doubles, 7 triples, 1 HR, 27 SB

    Sean Burroughs:
    .270/.315/.350 (.665) - 8 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR

    So, what do you think? Get your predictions into the comments. Who am I too high on? Who am I too low on? We can check back at the end of the year and see how these look!

    This article was originally published in blog: 28 Players, 28 Projections started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 12 Comments
    1. SweetOne69's Avatar
      SweetOne69 -
      I think everybody would by happy if your projections for Liriano, Hendricks, Capps, Perkins, Burton, Maloney and Duensing come to fruition.

      What's with your low numbers with Morneau? Don't you feel that he will stay healthy or don't you think the last 2 weeks of ST holds any merit?
    1. Thrylos's Avatar
      Thrylos -
      If the pen pitchers have those numbers (esp. ERAs and WHIPs) World Series there we come I think that you are a tad high on them Also I think that Hendriks' K/BB would be higher. That 2.1 would be career low at any level.

      And Marquis as good as Pavano? That would be cool, as long as the numbers are close to what you have. I think that Baker will be out for the season and the Twins will trade Span for a starter around July sometime. I think I'd probably expect a bit more than you do from Swarzak this season as well...

      Revere 1 HR, inside the park?

      I think that you are low on Casilla (I think that he will have better numbers -slashline- than Span this season), Luke Hughes and Ben Revere. Also the RBI totals seem a tad low. (added up is like 580some - should be higher) I do think that Morneau's , Willingham's and Mauer's OPS would probably be about .100 each higher too. Doumit seems a tad low as well.

      Plouffe and Parmelee are ?s to me. Hard to see how they will come out. Carroll I have no idea what to think about. Looked really slouchy to me in ST. Maybe he will pick it up.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Is it strange that I think Liriano's WHIP is too low but at the same time his BB/9 is too high?

      Take Liriano out of the rotation and those WHIP and K/9 numbers for the starters are horrifying.

      I think Capps numbers are a little optomistic, mostly because the fans are going to have a short leash with him and you can't have your closer getting booed every time he steps out on the field.

      Looks like a pretty fair assesment though. You have to hope Morneau, Valencia and Parmelee can produce more, but those stats are a safer bet than our wishes and dreams.
    1. CK's Avatar
      CK -
      Quite the optimist.
      I'm in
    1. Siehbiscuit's Avatar
      Siehbiscuit -
      I think there will be a couple of major improvements from your projections and a one major decline. Jamey Carroll will see about a trillion fastballs batting ahead of Mauer and Carroll's line will be closer to this: Jamey Carroll:

      .305/.365/.345 (.710) - 22 doubles, 3 triples, 0 HR, 30 RBI, 8 SB

      I think Mauer's numbers are very good, but the next guy in the lineup will be as focused as he has ever been and will produce much better than your projections.

      Morneau's line: .285/.360/.475 (.835) - 34 doubles, 0 triples, 26 HR, 88 RBI

      One thing I see this group changing this season, is driving the ball gap-to-gap and not being afraid to swing away. The last two seasons, the Twins have been "scared" of hitting at home and often have been frustrated by how difficult it is to hit HR at Target Field. The addition of Willingham (a dead-pull hitter), who hasn't been corrupted by Kubel's constant complaints of Target Field's size will inspire others to swing away and HR numbers and doubles numbers will drastically increase.

      On to the negative and ultimately a positive. Alexi Casilla will lose his job PERMANATELY by the middle of May. Luke Hughes will become our everday second baseman and have a fantastic year. His adjusted line ( with over 500 plate appearances) will closer resemble Danny Valencia's:

      .260/.335/.420 (.755) - 26 doubles, 1 triple, 18 HR, 68 RBI

      I am excited for our offense this year! Alex Wimmers will be dominant at AA and be up by August.
    1. Steve Lein's Avatar
      Steve Lein -
      If any SP is going to hit the 200 IP mark, it's Pavs, not Blackie. Blackburn get's pulled early too often because he can't stop the bleeding when he gets rocked. Pavano usually recovers to finish at least 6. I didn't think Marquis would last long regardless until Baker's latest "no idea what the hecks going on with his arm" scenario, but I think he's going to fare far worse than projected here. I think you're a bit high on everyone in the bullpen, some more than others. Those numbers look like an excellent bullpen, and I don't think that's what we're going to get. Little high on Span, see more of a .750ish OPS from him, lets say .285/.360/ .400. If Morneau's doing well enough to be hitting .275, there's more than a .445 slugging percentage there. Also think you're quite a bit below what the RBI totals for this group would end up being. By my look, that's a team OBP in the range of .325-.340, which would be no doubt top 10 in baseball, maybe even top 5. Twins had 572 RBI last year with a collective .306 OBP (both marks were 27th in MLB). With those numbers, this roster would put up at a minimum 700 runs.
    1. Loosey's Avatar
      Loosey -
      I think you are little too high on the pitching, some numbers seem to be stretches. On the other hand the hitters projections look a little bit low to me. I believe this team will be able to score some runs, unfortunately so will their opponents.
    1. kirbyelway's Avatar
      kirbyelway -
      I think you are low on Morneau and Casilla and I think Liriano is going to have a huge year. If we are in the hunt great, if not we get a kings ransom for him at the trade deadline.
    1. Jeff P's Avatar
      Jeff P -
      Liriano/Blackburn/Hendriks all seem reasonable but on the optimistic side especially when taken as a whole. It is not like you are projecting some dominant staff, but I think the starting pitching this year could be horrible.
    1. Jack Torse's Avatar
      Jack Torse -
      Is that homerun from rivere an inside the park job?
    1. jimbo92107's Avatar
      jimbo92107 -
      Parmelee's got a classic lefty power swing. 22 homers. Casilla may have solved his hitting problems, batting .285. How does Matt Capps post an ERA of 3? More like 5.00...the man has no deception, very little movement on his average heater. I feel bad about Scott Baker, but that elbow is killing his career. I think they'll shut him down before mid-season. Hendriks could be the next Radke impersonator, finishing 8 - 10. I see a mix of every young starter having a shot at this rotation, including Duensing, Swarzak and Manship. If any one of Liriano, Pavano or Blackie goes down, it's all over. At least I'll be able to scalp some cheap seats.
    1. Han Joelo's Avatar
      Han Joelo -
      Honestly, who the hell knows. I'm not excited about Jeff Gray at all and expect his ERA to be astronomical when he gets cut. If Parmalee only has nine homers that probably means he slumps so much he gets demoted.
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