Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
  • Twitter Mailbag: The Fernandez/Kershaw Path

    On Friday afternoon, I welcomed Twins and Twins minor league related questions on my Twitter account. A few people asked questions, but one really stood out as really interesting. So, I will answer that one first before answering the others more quickly.

    The first question was asked by Seth Postma. Great name, Great Questions. Right? In two tweets, he asked:

    Re: Stewart, Berrios, Thorpe, Gonsalves: Do you see a potential fast mover (i.e. Kershaw, Fernandez)
    And do you think the Twins will do that? Would they have done what Marlins did with Fernandez?
    Think about that just for a minute. Kershaw won the National League Cy Young Award this year, his second Cy Young Award in the last three seasons (finished 2nd in 2012!). Jose Fernandez finished third place in this year's NL Cy Young voting and was the easy choice for National League Rookie of the Year.

    Though Fernandez is right-handed and Kershaw is a southpaw, they both made their big league debut less than two years after they were drafted out of high school. They were both first round picks, Kershaw seventh overall in 2006, and Fernandez taken with the 14th overall pick in 2011.

    Kershaw debuted in 2006 in the GCL with five walks and 54 strikeouts in 37 innings. He began the 2007 season in the Midwest League (Low-A) where he went 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 97.1 innings. He gave up 72 hits, walked 50 and struck out 134. He was promoted directly to AA and made five starts to end that 19-year-old season. He was 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 24.2 innings. He struck out 29, but he also walked 18. He began the 2008 season (his age-20 season) back in AA, but he went 2-3 wit ha 1.91 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts. He struck out 59 and walked just 18 in 61.1 innings. On June 20, 2008, he made his big league debut. Now, his debut wasn't earthshaking. He was 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. In 107.2 innings, he gave up 109 hits, walked 52 and struck out 100.

    Of course, in five seasons since then, he has gone 72-41 with a 2.43 ERA. After walking 4.8 per nine in 2009 and 3.6 per nine in 2010, he has walked 2.5 per nine or less each of the last three years while striking out more than a batter per inning in all but 2013 (8.8/9).

    If you thought that Kershaw's ascent was quick and impressive, wait until you read about Jose Fernandez. The Cuban-born righty was drafted in 2011 out of his Tampa high school. He pitched in just two games after signing that season. As a 19 year old in 2012, he began in Low-A and went 7-0 with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. In 79.1 innings, he gave up just 51 hits, walked just 18 and struck out 99. He was promoted to High-A where he went 7-1 with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. In 55 innings, he gave up 38 hits, walked 17 and struck out 59.

    That's it for his minor league career. Mike Redmond decided that he would skip AA and AAA and make the Marlins' Opening Day roster. He went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. He was shut down in September at 172.2 innings and had given up just 111 hits, walked 58 and struck out 187. As a 20 year old!

    Would the Twins have done that? I think we can safely answer "No" to that one! They wouldn't have a 20 year old skip AA and AAA. I think that's fairly definitive, and I don't think many (if any) Twins fans would disagree with the decision to let him start the season in AA.

    That's probably enough about two immensely talented pitchers who do not pitch for the Minnesota Twins. Let's talk Twins. Back to Seth's questions.

    I do believe that if a young pitcher put up the types of numbers that Jose Fernandez did, the Twins would move him quickly. However, I can't imagine a scenario where the Twins would be willing to have a player skip both AA and AAA, especially a player that youthful, coming out of high school.

    The Twins have proven time and again that they will move pitchers, particularly college pitchers who dominate, up the ladder quickly. We saw it with Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Logan Darnell, Scott Baker and several others.

    It's harder to know what they would do with that kind of performing high school pitcher, in part, because the Twins have not drafted very many high school pitchers in the early rounds in the last decade. We'll get to those that Seth mentioned, but Hudson Boyd was a supplemental first round pick in 2011. He was the first high school pitcher that the Twins drafted in the first round since 2004 when the drafted high school hurler Kyle Waldrop in the first round. Waldrop got hurt early in his career, and Boyd has really struggled adjusting to the pro game.

    Brad Radke was the Twins 8th round pick in 1991 out of Tampa. He moved fairly quickly and skipped AAA when he debuted in 1995 with the Twins. However, he was 22 years old already (old, right?). He also doesn't fit the mold of Kershaw and Fernandez.

    Willie Banks was the 3rd overall pick in the 1987 draft. He moved up one level each season and debuted in July of 1991 at the age of 22.

    Johnny Ard was the 20th overall pick in the 1988 draft. He put up those Fernandez-like numbers in rookie ball and Low A that same year and was very good the next two seasons before being traded.

    Pat Mahomes put up some very impressive numbers after he was the Twins 8th round pick in 1988, but he moved up one level early and pitched at AA and AAA in 1991 and debuted in April of 1992 at age 21.

    Honestly, if a high school drafted pitcher moves up one level each season and debuts in the big leagues at 22 years old, that is a pretty fast track. But it's nowhere near the Fernandez/Kershaw path. So, let's consider the pitchers Seth referenced.

    Jose (JO) Berrios - As a 19 year old, Berrios went 7-7 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. In 103.2 innings, he walked 40 and struck out 100. I like those strikeout numbers, but his odds of making it to the big leagues at 20 is pretty unlikely. He will turn 20 in May, so 2014 is his 20 year old season. That said, if he were to be with the Twins very early in 2015, he could debut at 20. I would think that the Twins would start Berrios in Ft. Myers in 2014, but there is a chance that he could make a few more starts in Cedar Rapids. There is an outside chance that he could finish 2014 with a couple of starts in AA. I think more likely he ends 2014 in Ft. Myers and spends all of 2015 in New Britain. I think if all goes well, he could debut in 2016, his age-22 season.

    Stephen Gonsalves - The Twins fourth round pick in 2013 was very impressive in his professional debut in the GCL and Elizabethton. He has the size and stuff to move up more quickly than many. However, he turns 20 years old early next July. So, simply put, he won't be the next age-20 superstar, but I believe he could move up quickly. I think he could be one that will spend all of 2014 in Cedar Rapids. I think he could get up to New Britain in 2015 and debut in 2016, at the age of 22. However, that is also very aggressive.

    Kohl Stewart - For what it's worth (and based on Willie Banks, it's not worth a whole lot), Stewart was drafted earlier in his draft than Fernandez and Kershaw were in theirs. He is the type of athlete and has the pitches to be a guy who will move pretty quickly, if he remains healthy. Unfortunately, his professional debut was ended by a sore shoulder. However, assuming he is healthy going into next season, he should start the season in Cedar Rapids (or at least get there when it warms up!). For him to meet the Fernandez path, he would have to dominate in Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers in 2014 and debut with the Twins in 2015. Likely? Not really. Possible? I guess. That said, again if healthy, Stewart will likely move quickly, though I would expect him to spend all of 2014 in Cedar Rapids (just like I expected Byron Buxton to do in 2013!). He could pitch at two levels in 2015, and like the others, if things go well, he could debut in mid-2016, at the age of 21.

    Lewis Thorpe - Of course, Thorpe is the one with the highest probability of debuting with a strong 20-year-old season, but he has the furthest to go having just pitched in the GCL this year. He will turn 18 this coming week. If he pitches in Cedar Rapids in 2014, he will actually be ahead of the pace (so to speak) of of Fernandez and Kershaw. He's got tremendous, raw stuff, but the key word there is raw. He's very young, and his innings count may be the biggest deterrent to rushing him. His age-20 season will be 2016, so it's still very difficult to imagine a scenario where he would be up that quickly. It would involve him finishing 2014 in Cedar Rapids, and ending 2015 in New Britain. In that scenario, he could realistically debut as a 20-year-old in 2016. Again, that would be incredibly aggressive.

    To summarize, things have to play out pretty much perfectly for pitchers to follow the Clayton Kershaw/Jose Fernandez path to the big leagues by 20. It also takes tremendous risk on the part of the team. It assumes that the pitcher not only has the stuff to succeed, but also the heart and the makeup to overcome presumed struggles (though the award winners sure haven't found many struggles to this point).

    One thing to remember... I would consider a pitcher making it to the big leagues by 23 very good. Getting to the big leagues at 22 is very aggressive. Anything earlier than that is just incredible and very unusual. Joe Mauer debuted days before his 21st birthday. Miguel Sano should debut in 2014. If he debuts before May 11, he will still be 21 years old. If Byron Buxton debuts in 2014, he will be just 20 (and he has moved up at a pace faster than the Mauer path).

    I have no doubt that the Twins would be willing to move deserving pitchers quickly up the fast track, but I don't believe they would have them skip full-season levels with the exception of AAA. The four pitching examples referenced will most likely not debut by the age of 20, but there is a chance that they will all be big leaguers well before they turn 23. Consider that when Alex Meyer debuts with the Twins sometime in 2014, he will be 24 years old. And, he will likely debut about three years after being drafted.

    Great question, and there was the Seth-lengthed response to the Twitter question from Seth.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    Here are the other questions:

    From Keprios:
    @SethTweets what are the Twins doing organizationally to improve their coaching staff? ie Lack spanish speaking coaches.
    What we know so far:
    • Rochester: Manager - Gene Glynn, Hitting Coach - Tim Doherty, Pitching Coach - Marty Mason --- No change from last year.
    • Ft. Myers: Manager - Doug Mientkeiwicz, Hitting Coach - Jim Dwyer, Pitching Coach - Gary Lucas
    • Cedar Rapids: Manager - Jake Mauer, Hitting Coach - Tommy Watkins, Pitching Coach - Ivan Arteaga.
    • New Britain's coaching staff should be announced in the next week, and the Elizabethton and GCL coaches will be named at a later date.


    So the only change we know of at this time is that Gary Lucas and Ivan Arteaga flip-flopped pitching coach roles. Gary Lucas is a terrific pitching coach and moves up a level. Arteaga has been in the organization a long time too and did some really good things with some of the Miracle pitchers in 2013. However, in 2014, there is a good chance that big pitching prospects Yorman Landa, Felix Jorge and Randy Rosario will pitch in Cedar Rapids, so having Arteaga there makes a lot of sense. It will be interesting to see if any changes are made in New Britain and the rookie leagues.

    From jimaaa:

    @SethTweets@TwinsDaily the 25m in new tv money. Do you know if it Is one time or annually?
    The additional $25 million each team receives is because of the new TV deals with ESPN, Fox and the MLB Network. Those deals for for multiple years, so they will get that $25 million each of those years.

    And then a heads up, it's most likely those contracts will be even larger, and teams will likely get even more money to spend.

    Any thoughts or questions?

    Seth On Radio
    If you're up and about on Saturday morning, I will be a guest on Steve's Sports Saturday on am1100 in Fargo. Former NFL (Buffalo Bills) star and NDSU star and Detroit Lakes resident Phil Hansen will also be on the show. It is on from 9-11 (central time) and you can listen online here.
    Comments 27 Comments
    1. tjsyam921's Avatar
      tjsyam921 -
      With all we hear about Berrios, I noticed that Miguel Sulbaran, (acquired in Butera trade) with 9 more innings pitched had a lower ERA, whip, walks, and HR allowed at the same level. Is there any reason why he isn't considered a better prospect? He is also only 2 months older.
    1. markos's Avatar
      markos -
      Regarding Stewart, one of the things that scouts really liked prior to the draft was his polish. Like Seth said, the combination of his athleticism and a workable 4-pitch arsenal lends itself to moving up quickly, particularly now that he will be focusing on baseball full time. It may make sense to promote Stewart aggressively early on, as he probably can get away with dominating lower levels of the minors with just his fastball and slider, but the higher level of competition will force him to work on and improve his other off-speed offerings.

      I've read a few scouts who say they currently like Stewart over any high school pitcher in the 2014 class because of the total package. Some players have better individual tools, but no one (yet) has Stewart's combination of two plus pitches (fastball & slider), a 4-pitch arsenal, good control and elite athleticism. Baseball America did an update to their Best Tools report for the 2013 draft picks a few weeks ago, and Stewart's name was prominent: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft...draft-classes/
      Most important to this conversation, they picked Stewart as the high school player who is "Closest to the Majors". He is also the top-ranked athlete from the draft, has the #2 fastball (after Gray), and his slider is the #5 Secondary pitch.

      Has anyone projected Cedar Rapid's starting rotation for next season? There seem to be more names than spots right now. I wonder if they might try tandem starters.
    1. shimrod's Avatar
      shimrod -
      I don't think you can promote the players too quickly. If they've got the raw talent, as soon as they demonstrate they can hold their own at a level they should be pushed again.

      Anyone who wants to suggest a player failed due to being pushed too quickly needs to show the player would have succeeded with more time. How can you prove that? You can't. Plenty of talented players fail even when their teams take their time moving them through the system.

      I think if players can pitch, they'll pitch. If they can't pitch it's in the teams best interest to find out as quickly as possible. Push them through as fast as possible and if they falter, trade them to a team who believes they just needed a little more time...
    1. twinsfan34's Avatar
      twinsfan34 -
      I think a very important factor is the state of the MLB team. Mike Matheny wanted to have Michael Wacha as one of his starting five pitchers to START the season. But the Cardinals had tons of depth and the front office was hesitant to have such a long season for him.

      The Marlins had nobody. The brought up...8...9 rookies this year?

      Fernandez A to Pros. 20
      Ozuna went AA to Pros. 22
      Yelich went AA to Pros. 21
      Marisnick went AA to Pros. 22
      Dietrich went AA to Pros. 22

      The Twins...if they don't sign too many guys who are just salary hogs for the next couple seasons, could see guys like Baxendale, Meyer, and May by mid-season or sooner this year. Next year could see Sept call ups of Berrios, et al.

      Some guys will learn no matter the competition curve. That's why Buxton is rated #1 by every organization. He learns. He learns quickly. Could put him in MLB tomorrow, he may hit .250 in April and May...but, he'd be hitting .300 in August & September.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by tjsyam921 View Post
      With all we hear about Berrios, I noticed that Miguel Sulbaran, (acquired in Butera trade) with 9 more innings pitched had a lower ERA, whip, walks, and HR allowed at the same level. Is there any reason why he isn't considered a better prospect? He is also only 2 months older.
      Berrios hits 95 and has a sharp slider and a third pitch. Sulburan touches 90 with a tremendous changeup. He's also shorter (right or wrong, it's also why Berrios isn't typically rated higher nationally). Right or not, prospect rankings have little to do with the numbers, especially in the lower levels.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
      Has anyone projected Cedar Rapid's starting rotation for next season? There seem to be more names than spots right now. I wonder if they might try tandem starters.
      Landa, Felix, Rosario, Stewart, Gonsalves, (possibly) Thorpe, Berrios could start there. Slegers could start there. Malinowski could start there, though he was in the bullpen last year. Lo. Lots of options. I'm certain they'll stick with a 6-man rotation and while watching innings, guys will get time in the rotation and the bullpen when they need to slow the innings. Guys that start in the bullpen could eventually move to the rotation.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by shimrod View Post
      I don't think you can promote the players too quickly. If they've got the raw talent, as soon as they demonstrate they can hold their own at a level they should be pushed again.

      Anyone who wants to suggest a player failed due to being pushed too quickly needs to show the player would have succeeded with more time. How can you prove that? You can't. Plenty of talented players fail even when their teams take their time moving them through the system.

      I think if players can pitch, they'll pitch. If they can't pitch it's in the teams best interest to find out as quickly as possible. Push them through as fast as possible and if they falter, trade them to a team who believes they just needed a little more time...
      In the same way, you can't prove that moving a guy 'too quickly' is the right way either. Honestly, It's got to be a person-by-person thing. I would think that mental strength and makeup play into it as much as the tools. The key is dominating a level (and not just for a few starts, but over ten to twelve starts. A lot goes into it, and I won't pretend I know the right way to do it. Those decision makers (the front office people, the minor league coaching staffs, etc.) are much closer to the pitchers, and who they are. There's so much that we, from a distance, just don't know about the individuals.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
      I think a very important factor is the state of the MLB team. Mike Matheny wanted to have Michael Wacha as one of his starting five pitchers to START the season. But the Cardinals had tons of depth and the front office was hesitant to have such a long season for him.

      The Marlins had nobody. The brought up...8...9 rookies this year?

      Fernandez A to Pros. 20
      Ozuna went AA to Pros. 22
      Yelich went AA to Pros. 21
      Marisnick went AA to Pros. 22
      Dietrich went AA to Pros. 22

      The Twins...if they don't sign too many guys who are just salary hogs for the next couple seasons, could see guys like Baxendale, Meyer, and May by mid-season or sooner this year. Next year could see Sept call ups of Berrios, et al.

      Some guys will learn no matter the competition curve. That's why Buxton is rated #1 by every organization. He learns. He learns quickly. Could put him in MLB tomorrow, he may hit .250 in April and May...but, he'd be hitting .300 in August & September.
      This is a great point that I meant to bring to light as well. It's about necessity for each need. When the Twins were winning division titles year after year, they would bring up maybe one or two rookies each year and they could settle in while not having to carry the weight of the world. That's probably ideal. But, like the Twins in 1981 or again in 1999/2000, they went with the youth and let them struggle and eventually it paid off.

      And, no matter who you talk to about Buxton, as great as his tools are and his talent is, the first thing they talk about is his makeup and his will to be great. That's such a big piece of the puzzle.
    1. shimrod's Avatar
      shimrod -
      Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
      In the same way, you can't prove that moving a guy 'too quickly' is the right way either. Honestly, It's got to be a person-by-person thing. I would think that mental strength and makeup play into it as much as the tools. The key is dominating a level (and not just for a few starts, but over ten to twelve starts. A lot goes into it, and I won't pretend I know the right way to do it. Those decision makers (the front office people, the minor league coaching staffs, etc.) are much closer to the pitchers, and who they are. There's so much that we, from a distance, just don't know about the individuals.


      My point is I don't see why domination is a requirement. The guys who will be successful in the majors will rise to a challenge (mental makeup). If you move a talented player up a level and he is competitive for three or four starts then go ahead and move him again. Get the talent to the majors ASAP, and if they don't produce you can move them back a level for seasoning. The best way to improve athletic performance is to play with and against people who are better than you are. The Twins should err on the side of aggressive promotion.
    1. rukavina's Avatar
      rukavina -
      [QUOTE=Seth Stohs;178317]Landa, Felix, Rosario, Stewart, Gonsalves, (possibly) Thorpe, Berrios could start there. Slegers could start there.

      I think Landa could move quickly. Great velocity and presence. Twins have limited him in Venezuela, so he's pitching in high-leverage situations and doing well.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      Quote Originally Posted by shimrod View Post

      My point is I don't see why domination is a requirement. The guys who will be successful in the majors will rise to a challenge (mental makeup). If you move a talented player up a level and he is competitive for three or four starts then go ahead and move him again. Get the talent to the majors ASAP, and if they don't produce you can move them back a level for seasoning. The best way to improve athletic performance is to play with and against people who are better than you are. The Twins should err on the side of aggressive promotion.
      I would say get the talent up to AA ASAP, not MLB. Otherwise I agree. For the Twins in 2014 this would mean Berrios and Sulbaran getting some time at New Britain. Certainly all of the younger pitching prospects who are legit (Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Landa, Rosario, and Romero) should see CR time eventually.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      I don't think age has much to do with the Twins unwillingness to move pitchers. I think experience does however. Stewart probably could have been given a start or two in full season ball but he was only used sparingly in the rookie leagues. Whether he should have been given more than 20 innings pitched in professional ball is the question that should be asked. That's what would be putting a quick advancement in peril, not his actual age.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      I don't think age has much to do with the Twins unwillingness to move pitchers. I think experience does however. Stewart probably could have been given a start or two in full season ball but he was only used sparingly in the rookie leagues. Whether he should have been given more than 20 innings pitched in professional ball is the question that should be asked. That's what would be putting a quick advancement in peril, not his actual age.
      I think you are forgetting that Stewart lost time due to a nasty blister and then went to Japan to play some WBC baseball. I think he would have been on the Berrios path otherwise. He's going to start in Cedar Rapids, and if he gets off to a great start, then he's likely going to move up quicker. A number of scouts said that they thought he could be in the majors as fast as a guy like Manaea. As long as he's pitching well, he'll move up.
    1. shimrod's Avatar
      shimrod -
      [QUOTE...Those decision makers (the front office people, the minor league coaching staffs, etc.) are much closer to the pitchers, and who they are. There's so much that we, from a distance, just don't know about the individuals.[/QUOTE]

      A little off topic, but I think it relates. From my outside perspective baseball seems like the most hidebound, insular, and incestuous major sport. Tradition is great but I think many baseball professionals, given the choice between winning and sticking with tradition, would pick tradition every time. I've worked in environments that valued continuity over production and baseball sure looks like another example. In what other sport does every team employ the exact same strategy? Football has multiple offensive and defensive philosophies, west coast, the pistol, the 3-4, the 4-3. Basketball can boast the triangle offense, the corner offense, man or zone, etc. Baseball is stretching its limits with a defensive shift or offensive platoon.

      What I'm getting at is, just because the Twins coaches and managers have been in the game all their adult lives and are experts in their field doesn't mean they're automatically employing the best methods of producing what the fans want to see, a winning ball club. MLB looks like a prime candidate for a paradigm shift. Right now it's stuck in a self-perpetuating rut. No one gets a boss job until they've demonstrated they've internalized every hoary trope of conventional baseball. There is no innovation, at all.

      And as I implied earlier, my paradigm buster would be stomping on the accelerator with the top picks. Meyer should begin the season in the rotation, Stewart should be up by September. Sano should be the opening day third baseman and Buxton should be in centerfield by the all-star break. After three consecutive 90 loss seasons, what do we have to lose? If they fail at the MLB level send them back, and if failure at the major league level is going to permanently impair them they never had the strength of will to succeed anyway. Now's the time to find out, when we can cut our losses and still come out ahead by trading young talented players who were "simply over-promoted" (conventional thinking) for new prospects who may have what it takes to succeed. Slowly working up the promotion ladder a year at a time is fine for low level picks; top talents should be accelerated through the system.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      I don't think age has much to do with the Twins unwillingness to move pitchers. I think experience does however. Stewart probably could have been given a start or two in full season ball but he was only used sparingly in the rookie leagues. Whether he should have been given more than 20 innings pitched in professional ball is the question that should be asked. That's what would be putting a quick advancement in peril, not his actual age.
      I guess they could have pushed the 18 year old to pitch with a sore shoulder, but I'm not sure how much sense that makes.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
      I think you are forgetting that Stewart lost time due to a nasty blister and then went to Japan to play some WBC baseball. I think he would have been on the Berrios path otherwise. He's going to start in Cedar Rapids, and if he gets off to a great start, then he's likely going to move up quicker. A number of scouts said that they thought he could be in the majors as fast as a guy like Manaea. As long as he's pitching well, he'll move up.
      Berrios was the one in the WBC. But, I agree with this. If Stewart is healthy, he could move quickly for sure. But, it needs to be quickly while still developing and watching innings and all of that kind of stuff.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Re: Shimrod's most recent post:

      In what other sport does every team employ the exact same strategy? Football has multiple offensive and defensive philosophies, west coast, the pistol, the 3-4, the 4-3. Basketball can boast the triangle offense, the corner offense, man or zone, etc. Baseball is stretching its limits with a defensive shift or offensive platoon.
      To be fair, there isn't a lot else to do on the field. Pitchers throw pitches that do something different and a hitter has to adjust to that decision, just like a FB or Basketball team makes a play call and the defense has to adjust and react.

      What I'm getting at is, just because the Twins coaches and managers have been in the game all their adult lives and are experts in their field doesn't mean they're automatically employing the best methods of producing what the fans want to see, a winning ball club.
      I don't think that anyone's saying that what the Twins are doing is right all the time. I don't think that the Rays front office or the A's front office think that they've done what's right all of the time. Even within a front office, you know there are debates and varying opinions on how to do things. That happens with the Rays, and it happens with the Twins. What comes out of their mouths, however, is consensus and a team decision, which I would think any team or business would want.

      I guess all I was trying to say is that the Twins personnel is much close to the players than we are. No stat can tell us if a player's makeup will allow him to pitch in AA at age 17 or 18 (or 21 or 25). They know their personnel. Certainly better than you or I. I'm not saying there aren't times I'm frustrated that a certain guy didn't get a promotion at a certain time or whatever, but they aren't making these decisions without good reasoning.

      And as I implied earlier, my paradigm buster would be stomping on the accelerator with the top picks. Meyer should begin the season in the rotation, Stewart should be up by September. Sano should be the opening day third baseman and Buxton should be in centerfield by the all-star break.
      If healthy, I agree that Meyer and Sano could certainly be opening day guys and I do think Buxton will be up right after the Futures Game. But if Stewart is up in September, that would be a bit much. He would be like 19, and lost time already this first year with a shoulder issue.

      After three consecutive 90 loss seasons, what do we have to lose? If they fail at the MLB level send them back, and if failure at the major league level is going to permanently impair them they never had the strength of will to succeed anyway. Now's the time to find out, when we can cut our losses and still come out ahead by trading young talented players who were "simply over-promoted" (conventional thinking) for new prospects who may have what it takes to succeed.
      I just think that's such an oversimplification. Again, each player is different. Buxton may be able to handle the big leagues at 20, and he'll likely get that chance next year. But, he's blessed with great makeup. Just like players mature physically at different times, they also mature mentally at different times. A guy like Miguel Sano would likely have struggled more with a quicker advancement because of his strikeout rate but also because he needed some maturing. Everyone knew it and saw it. Because of that, I don't believe the push-push-push and if they can't hack it, it means they never could have philosophy.

      Aaron Hicks has great makeup too. He struggled in his big league debut. Does that mean the Twins should give up on him? Brian Dozier didn't get up to the big leagues until he was 24! That's too old, right? Then he struggled. Give up on him too, right? Dozier is incredibly strong mentally. It's such an individual thing that I would hate to pigeonhole everyone into the same plan. It can't happen that way.
    1. roger's Avatar
      roger -
      Seth...a while ago you indicated that the correct name for Felix, was Jorge Felix. Since, you have often used Felix Jorge, although today was Felix (last name). Which is it?
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by roger View Post
      Seth...a while ago you indicated that the correct name for Felix, was Jorge Felix. Since, you have often used Felix Jorge, although today was Felix (last name). Which is it?
      It's Jorge Felix... people are going to have to bear with me on this one. I've been calling him Felix Jorge for probably three years... It's like when I went to Cedar Rapids for their season opener last year and they were playing Beloit. I'm pretty sure I tweeted Beloit thinking Cedar Rapids over and over again!
    1. johnnydakota's Avatar
      johnnydakota -
      Jorge= George....just saying
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