Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
  • Draft Board v.4.0 (5/22)

    IT’S LESS THAN TWO WEEKS AWAY! Are you excited?

    This is version 4.0 of my “small board” as I am about to go on KFAN with John and Aaron to talk about… you guessed it… the MLB Draft. A quick reminder: The Twins first pick (fourth overall) has a draft slot value of around $4.5 million.

    JEREMY’S SMALL BOARD
    Keep in mind, please, that this is not a “mock draft”. This is not a reflection of my top players. This is my attempt at stacking a “Twins Draft Board”, based on a number of things.

    Also, it should be pointed out that the Twins very rarely deviate from their norm: in the last 20 years, the Twins have had 24 1st round draft picks (not counting supplemental picks). Of those 24 picks, 11 have been prep position players and eight have been college pitchers. The other two groups: college position players (4) and prep pitchers (1) have been much less represented.

    1) Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford (previous: 2)

    THE LATEST: If I had the first pick, I’d take Appel. If Appel drops to #4, the Twins will take him. But I don’t… and he won’t. I’m not sure that Houston has the cajones to make this pick, but I know the Cubs do.

    2) Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma (previous: 1)

    THE LATEST: Houston will have to weigh the pros and cons of taking Gray over Appel and trying to save a little bit of money. They just might be able to do it, even though the Astros are flirting with a lot of people right now. Unlike collegians, the Astros management won’t leave this party alone. I think they go with Gray, ultimately.

    3) Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego (previous: 8)

    THE LATEST: I’ll come out and tell you that I’m not as sold on Bryant as many, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t take him at #3. He’s got legitimate power. He’s improved his overall hit tools as well. There’s just something that makes me leery; but you can’t ignore what he’s done this year, even though his defensive home remains in question.

    4) Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS (previous: 3)

    THE LATEST: Probably the first place you saw Stewart tied to the Twins was here. Now you’re seeing it everywhere. But like all drafts, things change. Stewart will probably be the top name on the Twins board when their pick comes up. Stewart has been throwing out the “I’m going to Texas A&M” line lately. He isn’t. But he’s going to use it to get the most money possible. My sense is that the Red Sox are going to get creative and make Stewart an offer that the Twins won’t match.

    5) Braden Shipley, P, Nevada (previous: NR)

    THE LATEST: Shipley hit a bit of a rough patch earlier this season, but got it back together to pitch his best game of the year last week. He’s been compared a lot to Kyle Zimmer, who went 5th to the Royals last year and signed for $3 million. Shipley is a great athlete and has a plus changeup to go with a mid-90s fastball. Shipley is a name tied to many teams in the top 10 and as someone who might take a discount. Why not the Twins?

    6) Reese McGuire, C, Washington HS (previous: NR)

    THE LATEST: McGuire comes in a high-defensive, questionable-offensive package. The Twins have been tied to him and, even though he could easily head to San Diego, there are many who believe he would cut a deal if selected in the top 5-7 picks. Though I don’t think the Twins go that route, it is a card they’ll have in their pocket.

    7) Clint Frazier, OF, Georgia HS (previous: 9)

    THE LATEST: Both Frazier and Meadows have seen their stock drop as of late. The Twins are said to prefer Frazier to Meadows, but not nearly enough to pop him at #4.

    8) Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina (previous: 6)

    THE LATEST: Moran, allegedly, is in the mix at #1. Only he isn’t. He’ll go to the Indians at #5, in all likelihood.

    9) Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas (previous: 7)

    THE LATEST: Stanek still has time to move up the board. He’s someone the Twins would typically consider. The fact of the matter is, though, Shipley has had better results with similar upside.

    10) Trey Ball (previous: NR)

    THE LATEST: Ball is a hard-throwing, athletic lefty. The Twins are going to kick the tires on him and, if he’s interested in making a deal like McGuire is rumored to be considering, you might start to hear more steam on this. Ball is a guy who fits in the 8-11 range talent-wise, but could offer a huge reward based on upside.


    Feel free to discuss. You can follow me on Twitter (@jeremynygaard) for draft updates.
    This article was originally published in blog: Draft Board v.4.0 (5/22) started by Jeremy Nygaard
    Comments 43 Comments
    1. gunnarthor's Avatar
      gunnarthor -
      Be interesting in hearing more about the Stewart / Red Sox agreement. Fun list, thanks!
    1. Dance with Disco Dan's Avatar
      Dance with Disco Dan -
      Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
      Be interesting in hearing more about the Stewart / Red Sox agreement. Fun list, thanks!
      I am with Gunnarthor, Jeremy. Will you flesh out the Red Sox/Stewart thought? Are you suggesting that the Red Sox would make a pre-draft "deal" with Stewart that Stewart would tell the Twins to match or not draft him? He clearly has as much leverage as a kid can have under the current draft rules but it seems the height of hubris to pass up slot money at no. 4. As a high school prospect facing an alternative of three more years of free pitches and needing to remain top 4 prospect after those additional miles are put on his arm (even ignoring the risk of a football-related injury), it would shock me if he followed through on any such threat.
    1. greengoblinrulz's Avatar
      greengoblinrulz -
      Great jobs all you guys do on the draft stuff.......love it
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.
    1. Dance with Disco Dan's Avatar
      Dance with Disco Dan -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
      Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.

      Thanks. I agree he should pull out all the stops to better his and his family's future. Fair play, for sure. Unfortunately for him, he does not have the Appel option of passing on the best offer and re-entering next year's draft. He'll have to sweat out three years of health during his arm's 18-20 development years while Appel only had to sweat one year with a more mature arm.

      I still believe Appel was a little nutty, on a risk/reward basis, to turn down the Pirates best offer even though it worked out very well for him. Stewart thumbing his nose at a Twins slot offer to go to college would put him way past Appel on the risk curve. I hope for his sake no one is advising him that it would be a good idea.

      If I am the Twins, if he is best on their board, I take him even in the face of any same or similar "threat" by Stewart.
    1. johnnydakota's Avatar
      johnnydakota -
      What can you tell me about High schooler Carlos Salazar?
      rhp , 4 pitches, 97mph fastball, why isint there more interest in him?
    1. clutterheart's Avatar
      clutterheart -
      What makes you not sold on Bryant? I think this guy is a legit masher and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he goes before Appel or Gray.
      Hes seems to have a good eye, decent hit for contact and fantastic power.
      He could play anywhere and be an impact.
    1. johnnydakota's Avatar
      johnnydakota -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
      Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.
      Isint that tampering?Why would the Red Sox even have a say in any player till its there turn to draft?
    1. Bctwinsfan's Avatar
      Bctwinsfan -
      2 questions.

      1. Do you realize how much the Red Sox can spend on their 1st pick?

      2. How much of a discount to you expect the twins to look for at #4?
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      It creates some speculation but with the current draft penalties the Red Sox would either have to punt this year's draft and/or next year's draft to offer more money than the Twins can.

      If the Twins want a player at #4 they will be able to offer more money if they want him.
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      Nothing illegal about it. Pre-draft deals happen all the time. Say, for example, that the Twins want to spend $4m. The Red Sox could rearrange to have more than that available. (We talked about the Red Sox spending more during the podcastable portion.)

      There also isn't anything stopping the Twins from telling Gray's advisors they would be willing to go overslot with him and the agent raising the price for the other teams.

      There's thought right now that Appel has a higher price tag for the Astros than Cubs, so he'll drop to actually get more money from the Cubs. (i.e. Astros say we'll give you $6.5. Boras says we want whole slot. Boras tells Cubs he wants $7m.).
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
      What can you tell me about High schooler Carlos Salazar?
      rhp , 4 pitches, 97mph fastball, why isint there more interest in him?
      I saw this question posted elsewhere, did some research and answered. I don't remember exactly what I found, but it definitely wasn't as glowing as that report. I think 2nd-3rd round is what I thought.
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
      What makes you not sold on Bryant? I think this guy is a legit masher and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he goes before Appel or Gray.
      Hes seems to have a good eye, decent hit for contact and fantastic power.
      He could play anywhere and be an impact.
      I honestly don't know what it is. Maybe its college bats in general. I do think he'll be, at a minimum, an average major-leaguer. I'm skeptical that his hit tool comes back down to earth as a pro. I could be wrong and if he fell and the Twins took him, I wouldn't be angry. Same as if they passed.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
      Nothing illegal about it. Pre-draft deals happen all the time. Say, for example, that the Twins want to spend $4m. The Red Sox could rearrange to have more than that available. (We talked about the Red Sox spending more during the podcastable portion.)

      There also isn't anything stopping the Twins from telling Gray's advisors they would be willing to go overslot with him and the agent raising the price for the other teams.

      There's thought right now that Appel has a higher price tag for the Astros than Cubs, so he'll drop to actually get more money from the Cubs. (i.e. Astros say we'll give you $6.5. Boras says we want whole slot. Boras tells Cubs he wants $7m.).
      I'm sorry but I don't listen to podcasts. the only way that the Red Sox can even come up with 4M is by basically punting their 2nd rd choice (signing significantly underslot) or by going >5% over their draft budget and losing the 1st (and possibly 2nd) rd pick next year. This is what needs to happen just for them to get to an underslot number by the Twins. If the Twins want Stewart they will be in a significantly better position than the Red Sox to make it happen.
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      Quote Originally Posted by Bctwinsfan View Post
      2 questions.

      1. Do you realize how much the Red Sox can spend on their 1st pick?

      2. How much of a discount to you expect the twins to look for at #4?
      The Red Sox have a pool of $6.8m. Not sure how much on their first pick. They could spend $3.6m on first pick if they are ok paying tax and going slot everywhere else. They could take 50 grand from other 9 slots and spend over $4m.

      The position the Twins are in, with no clear-cut #4, they could probably bank a million without trading off too much talent. Are the #4 (Stewart?) and #6 (Shipley?) that different?
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
      I'm sorry but I don't listen to podcasts. the only way that the Red Sox can even come up with 4M is by basically punting their 2nd rd choice (signing significantly underslot) or by going >5% over their draft budget and losing the 1st (and possibly 2nd) rd pick next year. This is what needs to happen just for them to get to an underslot number by the Twins. If the Twins want Stewart they will be in a significantly better position than the Red Sox to make it happen.
      Well you missed a good discussion and I do get what you're saying. Price tags will remain fluid until the night of the draft. It will be interesting to see how the Stewart situation plays out... and lets not forget about the Rockies love-affair with drafting quarterbacks.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
      I honestly don't know what it is. Maybe its college bats in general. I do think he'll be, at a minimum, an average major-leaguer. I'm skeptical that his hit tool comes back down to earth as a pro. I could be wrong and if he fell and the Twins took him, I wouldn't be angry. Same as if they passed.
      College bats have changed significantly in the last couple of years and yet Bryant has a .876 SLG% (a .538 isoP) and he's hitting more than a HR every other game. If you're skeptical of his bat then I'm not sure a college hitter should ever be taken in the top 5. I think Bryant is making a legitimate argument to be the BPA in the whole draft.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
      Well you missed a good discussion and I do get what you're saying. Price tags will remain fluid until the night of the draft. It will be interesting to see how the Stewart situation plays out... and lets not forget about the Rockies love-affair with drafting quarterbacks.
      You're suggesting that the Red Sox would punt 1-2 other very valuable picks to take Stewart over a guy like Frazier. And the other necessary part of the equation is that the Twins would only take Stewart if he goes underslot. They might not take Stewart but if they want him there is very little chance that the Red Sox can offer him more.
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      I'm suggesting that a team could cut a deal with an agent to go later for more money. Nine of the first 15 picks last year signed for under slot. The Twins could offer Stewart, Shipley and McGuire all $3.3m and, if Moran goes 5th as expected, somebody has to say yes or they risk losing money. There's a lot of ways to go about looking at this.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
      I'm suggesting that a team could cut a deal with an agent to go later for more money. Nine of the first 15 picks last year signed for under slot. The Twins could offer Stewart, Shipley and McGuire all $3.3m and, if Moran goes 5th as expected, somebody has to say yes or they risk losing money. There's a lot of ways to go about looking at this.
      The only way that your scenario plays out is if the Twins aren't really interested in Stewart and are more interested in going underslot. That's certainly possible but it's all dependent on the Twins not liking Stewart enough to sign him at his expected asking price (slot or at least within the +5%).
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.