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  • Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections

    Since completing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook a month ago, I have managed to find a little extra time in my life. So, what did I do? I am so cool that I started making my Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (which can be found here and here). Today, another piece to that fun, preseason puzzle is presented for you today. It is my attempt to predict how the Twins hitters will fare in 2013.

    I'm sure you've reviewed several such projections, such as Bill James and PECOTA and others. However, those are all just done with a computer and with stats and all those things that seem to make a lot of sense based on several factors like the players' history, age and more.

    My projections are fairly similar, in nature, yet likely different in results. I admit that I used my computer and I looked at players' stats from previous seasons. I considered the players' ages and career trajectories. I also made some assumptions based on intangibles, either previously chronicled or developed on my own. In other words, I look at the numbers and then use my gut to determine what the player will do in 2013.



    You're certainly free to disagree with them, if you like. Frankly, I just enjoy doing it because it helps me get ready for the upcoming season. I'm not going to claim that my projections are in any way better than the others you've read (even those other ones will be pretty close on some and not even a little close on others), but I am certainly willing to stand behind them. And, hopefully someone will remind me at the end of the season to look at them and see how close I was.

    I encourage all of you to do something similar and/or post your projections for the players below as well. Obviously we can't predict injury or trades and easier than we can predict who will break out and who will bust. But again, these are solely my projections for the 2012 seasons for the Twins hitters. It is not meant to be used in your fantasy league drafts or anything. If you do so, do so at your own risk.

    Please note that I projected player by player, and at the end, I compared my projected 2013 numbers to the actual 2012 numbers to see if I was completely off. I do show some small improvement by the offense overall. Note also that I have about 250 more plate appearances to reach those 2012 numbers, but I would say those are for other players who come up for brief stints, or to account for the unexpected.

    With that, I'm going to split the projections into two charts, in hopes that it will fit better onto your screen.

    Enjoy!

    G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS
    C Joe Mauer 143 626 532 0.325 0.406 0.483 0.889
    C Ryan Doumit 127 505 470 0.257 0.305 0.430 0.735
    C Drew Butera 31 91 84 0.202 0.231 0.286 0.516
    C Chris Herrmann 43 123 108 0.259 0.325 0.361 0.686
    1B Justin Morneau 142 607 521 0.292 0.381 0.536 0.916
    2B Brian Dozier 113 458 412 0.267 0.330 0.391 0.720
    3B Trevor Plouffe 154 598 536 0.252 0.311 0.451 0.763
    SS Pedro Florimon 62 179 164 0.189 0.218 0.262 0.480
    UIF Jamey Carroll 129 335 281 0.274 0.343 0.342 0.685
    UIF Eduardo Escobar 108 237 212 0.259 0.312 0.349 0.661
    LF Josh Willingham 151 626 534 0.253 0.355 0.489 0.843
    CF Aaron Hicks 91 397 336 0.265 0.348 0.399 0.746
    RF Chris Parmelee 119 433 382 0.259 0.335 0.440 0.775
    OF Darin Mastroianni 115 387 337 0.246 0.313 0.335 0.648
    OF Oswaldo Arcia 33 128 115 0.322 0.367 0.487 0.854
    OF Joe Benson 67 210 184 0.250 0.305 0.375 0.680
    2013 Predictions 162 5940 5208 0.267 0.337 0.426 0.763
    2012 Totals 162 6209 5562 0.260 0.325 0.390 0.715

    Here are more of the projected counting numbers:

    R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO
    C Joe Mauer 78 173 38 2 14 78 3 81 92
    C Ryan Doumit 49 121 31 1 16 63 0 33 92
    C Drew Butera 5 17 4 0 1 7 0 4 19
    C Chris Herrmann 12 28 6 1 1 13 1 12 18
    1B Justin Morneau 77 152 32 1 31 86 0 79 99
    2B Brian Dozier 49 110 27 3 6 41 13 41 52
    3B Trevor Plouffe 78 135 30 1 25 68 1 51 121
    SS Pedro Florimon 20 31 7 1 1 13 3 8 47
    UIF Jamey Carroll 41 77 14 1 1 25 7 38 43
    UIF Eduardo Escobar 18 55 11 1 2 23 3 19 38
    LF Josh Willingham 71 135 27 0 33 104 1 87 141
    CF Aaron Hicks 64 89 14 5 7 33 13 49 75
    RF Chris Parmelee 42 99 20 2 15 41 1 46 88
    OF Darin Mastroianni 44 83 12 3 4 31 29 38 94
    OF Oswaldo Arcia 16 37 7 0 4 21 0 10 25
    OF Joe Benson 24 46 8 3 3 22 8 18 51
    2013 Predictions 688 1388 288 25 164 669 83 614 1095
    2012 Totals 701 1448 270 30 131 667 135 505 1069

    That's a lot of numbers to digest, so take your time... Are there some you agree with? Others that you disagree with? Which are the most egregious? And again, be sure to post your projections for some of all of the players as well!
    This article was originally published in blog: Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 34 Comments
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
      If Florimon hits like you're projecting him, the Twins can't seriously justify keeping him as the starting shortstop all season.
      That's why I have him playing 62 games or so... my assumption is he'd get two months and be gone by mid-June.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by mcrow View Post
      I have to say I think you're a bit overly positive on several players. I appreciate the positivity though.
      Someone has to show a little positivity, right?
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by jimbo92107 View Post
      Florimon .189 vs. Escobar .259? That's pretty much saying Escobar should be the regular SS.

      With that arm, maybe Florimon could try out for closer.
      I'd be comfortable with that.
    1. mcrow's Avatar
      mcrow -
      Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
      Someone has to show a little positivity, right?
      I like the Morneau stat line, would love it if that happens. Lets cross fingers and hope it happens because that would be huge for the Twins to be watchable this year.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by mcrow View Post
      I agree, but do think that it is possible to plausible (It could happen) and reasonable (not without reason) but some of these are unlikely at the same time.
      As is the case with all projections, including those that get used over and over on the interwebs. I definitely don't claim to have any perfect formula. I look at past history, and pay a little more attention to the last couple of years, age, trends, and put it all together.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans View Post
      Seth very interesting article and set of offensive numbers--overly bullish to say the least. I disagree with most people and say they are not reasonable at all because you forgot to factor in time on the DL. You have Mauer playing 143 games, Doumit 127, Plouffe 154, Morneau 142 and Willingham 151. It is possible that one or two of these guys will avoid the DL--but all 5--given their history no way. (Yes, Doumit could spend time on the DL and get 127 appearances but not likely.) I gather you have Hicks coming up sometime around memorial day and displacing Mastro--if he is on team all year--he plays 120plus--Gardy and Ryan wont keep him on MLB roster to keep him on bench,.
      I considered injuries and DL time, but obviously that's completely unpredictable... There are a lot of teams that have guys that play over 150 games a year. I'm predicting the Twins will have a couple too. I don't know if they're the right ones, but we'll find out.

      Correct on my thoughts of Hicks taking over in probably early June. I also have Benson being up the full season, or most of it, and splitting time with Mastroianni at the start of the season and then sticking around later because once Hicks is up, Hicks'll play most every day.
    1. mcrow's Avatar
      mcrow -
      Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
      As is the case with all projections, including those that get used over and over on the interwebs. I definitely don't claim to have any perfect formula. I look at past history, and pay a little more attention to the last couple of years, age, trends, and put it all together.
      No worries Seth, I'm not saying I could do better but like you said no system is perfect and you could very well be right and I'm undersetimating some guys. I sure as heck hope yours are right because it's going to be a massacist's paradise around here if mine are right...
    1. jimbo92107's Avatar
      jimbo92107 -
      If both Benson and Hicks have better projected averages then Mastrioanni, then the Twins should just plant them in the outfield and leave them there. This team needs to give fans a reason to buy tickets. Their pitching staff is like a Tommy John convention, and they traded away their two best on-base guys. Give us something to make us smile!
    1. Thrylos's Avatar
      Thrylos -
      Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:
      2013 Predictions 688 R 1388 288 25 164
      HR 669 RBI
      83 614 1095
      2012 Totals 701 R 1448 270 30 131
      HR 667 RBI
      135 505 1069
      with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
      If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...
    1. SgtSchmidt11's Avatar
      SgtSchmidt11 -
      I think that Mauer's K rate is a little high, I mean last year was his highest ever, by quite a bit...Otherwise it looks very reasonable (Here's to hoping the Morneau hits that well!)
    1. Willihammer's Avatar
      Willihammer -
      Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
      Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:


      with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
      If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...
      Well they are losing two pretty good tablesetters.

      The more I think about it, this team might be smart to move everyone up. Mauer 1, Willingham 2, etc. Get Mauer up there in the 1st with bases empty and no outs, instead of bases empty and 2 outs.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
      Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:


      with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
      If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...
      I wrote that right in the article... I had no intention of making anything add up, just checking to see how far I was off on various things.
    1. twinsfansd's Avatar
      twinsfansd -
      Question? How is Trevor Plouffe going to score as many runs as Mauer with about 75 times less on base and the lighter end of the batting order hitting behind him? But great info though.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by twinsfansd View Post
      Question? How is Trevor Plouffe going to score as many runs as Mauer with about 75 times less on base and the lighter end of the batting order hitting behind him? But great info though.
      Homeruns, probably.
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