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  • Twins To Sign RHP Kevin Correia

    Kevin Correia Is Joining The Minnesota TwinsAccording to sources, the Twins have agreed to terms with right-handed pitcher Kevin Correia. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick is saying that the deal is a two-year deal and $10 million. The 32-year-old right-hander has gone 12-11 the last two seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates. His ERA in 2011 was 4.79, and it was 4.21 in 2012.

    He was originally a 4th round pick by the San Francisco Giants. He has spent time with the Giants, Padres and Pirates. In 10 big league seasons, he is a combined 60-65 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. His career strikeout rate is 6.0. However, the last two seasons, his K/9 has been 4.5 and 4.7. He made his first, and only, All Star appearance in 2011 with the Pirates.

    The past two seasons, he has thrown 154 and 171 innings. His career high innings were 198 with the Padres in 2009.

    Correia comes in as the veteran of a pitching staff that includes Scott Diamond and Vance Worley. Of those three, he's clearly the third best. Best case scenario, he can find a way to be just about league average in 2013 and the Twins can trade him for a C-level prospect in July. If nothing else, I do like this deal much better than the 1 year, $6 million deal that Scott Feldman got from the Cubs.
    This article was originally published in blog: Twins to sign RHP Kevin Correia started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 188 Comments
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post

      Jeez Brock... Marquis strikes out more hitters than Correia does. Surely you can see that.

      To everyone... These Marquis and Blackburn comparisons are a little over the top.

      Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego.

      Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference.

      Comparing with Marquis... I find it hard to compare Marquis in Minnesota with Marquis in San Diego.

      This mob will continue to mob... It's how it works... I get that and reading the responses has been fun.
      The Marquis comparison isn't a bad one. Correia and Marquis are basically the same guy. Right-handed, soft-tossers with marginal control, don't miss bats, keep just over 50% of balls on the ground.

      With that said, Correia will probably not be as bad as Marquis in Minnesota. Marquis will also not be as good as he was in San Diego. The Marquis signing was "meh" at the time for me. I didn't like him as a pitcher but given the money left to JR at that point, I didn't fault him for trying. Marquis obviously had issues while in Minnesota because he completely imploded... but even if he had pitched similar to his 2011 line, he wasn't going to be very good and probably would have been a below average pitcher.

      I expect Correia to be that pitcher in 2013. Below average, declining, but not a complete implosion a la Marquis.

      And that still makes this two year (!) deal a mistake.
      I expect Correia to be a complete and utter disaster. Consider this: 2012 was his best season in the last 3 years. He posted an ERA+ of88. I don't see an ERA+ of 88 as good. He doesn't strike anybody out, instead relying on defense to do the job behind him. That's not gonna work out well.
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Gotta hand it to you Riverbrian...you really give it your all to back Ryan's moves. Way to stick to your guns
      Thank You Puck... Terry Ryan once ran directly at a Mountain Lion that had me cornered. I've had his back ever since.

      Seriously... This ain't so much defense of TR... It's more like balance... Correia is being over cooked here. I've spent a lot of time on this site and I appreciate all the posters but I've detected a slight glimpse of embellishment and emotion from time to time. Or maybe that's just me.
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Is Kevin Correia actually Jason Marquis? I'm looking through their stat lines and they're basically the exact same guy.

      What on earth is Ryan thinking?
      Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego.

      Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference.
      Good for Correia that he wasn't capable of the other worldly and historically colossal decrepitude that Nick Blackburn is. For a metaphorical visual of that comparison, a 4 looks a lot sexier when standing next to a 1....and yet it's still a 4.
      Yeah... That's kinda my point... But we have posters here who are calling this signing Blackburn esque. I was pointing out that... that is embellishment at a fairly large degree.
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post

      Jeez Brock... Marquis strikes out more hitters than Correia does. Surely you can see that.

      To everyone... These Marquis and Blackburn comparisons are a little over the top.

      Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego.

      Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference.

      Comparing with Marquis... I find it hard to compare Marquis in Minnesota with Marquis in San Diego.

      This mob will continue to mob... It's how it works... I get that and reading the responses has been fun.
      The Marquis comparison isn't a bad one. Correia and Marquis are basically the same guy. Right-handed, soft-tossers with marginal control, don't miss bats, keep just over 50% of balls on the ground.

      With that said, Correia will probably not be as bad as Marquis in Minnesota. Marquis will also not be as good as he was in San Diego. The Marquis signing was "meh" at the time for me. I didn't like him as a pitcher but given the money left to JR at that point, I didn't fault him for trying. Marquis obviously had issues while in Minnesota because he completely imploded... but even if he had pitched similar to his 2011 line, he wasn't going to be very good and probably would have been a below average pitcher.

      I expect Correia to be that pitcher in 2013. Below average, declining, but not a complete implosion a la Marquis.

      And that still makes this two year (!) deal a mistake.
      I expect Correia to be a complete and utter disaster. Consider this: 2012 was his best season in the last 3 years. He posted an ERA+ of88. I don't see an ERA+ of 88 as good. He doesn't strike anybody out, instead relying on defense to do the job behind him. That's not gonna work out well.
      I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.
    1. snepp's Avatar
      snepp -
      So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal?
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
      No, his numbers don't scream any such thing. Even a cursory look at his ERA compared to the NL average would tell you as much.
      Than Why all the screaming?
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      'So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal? '

      Does it matter that even Blackburn was better than Correia in 4 of the last 5 seasons?
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
      So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal?
      Snepp... Snepp... It was directed at those who are comparing him to Blackburm.... That's embellishment!!!
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post

      Jeez Brock... Marquis strikes out more hitters than Correia does. Surely you can see that.

      To everyone... These Marquis and Blackburn comparisons are a little over the top.

      Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego.

      Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference.

      Comparing with Marquis... I find it hard to compare Marquis in Minnesota with Marquis in San Diego.

      This mob will continue to mob... It's how it works... I get that and reading the responses has been fun.
      The Marquis comparison isn't a bad one. Correia and Marquis are basically the same guy. Right-handed, soft-tossers with marginal control, don't miss bats, keep just over 50% of balls on the ground.

      With that said, Correia will probably not be as bad as Marquis in Minnesota. Marquis will also not be as good as he was in San Diego. The Marquis signing was "meh" at the time for me. I didn't like him as a pitcher but given the money left to JR at that point, I didn't fault him for trying. Marquis obviously had issues while in Minnesota because he completely imploded... but even if he had pitched similar to his 2011 line, he wasn't going to be very good and probably would have been a below average pitcher.

      I expect Correia to be that pitcher in 2013. Below average, declining, but not a complete implosion a la Marquis.

      And that still makes this two year (!) deal a mistake.
      I expect Correia to be a complete and utter disaster. Consider this: 2012 was his best season in the last 3 years. He posted an ERA+ of88. I don't see an ERA+ of 88 as good. He doesn't strike anybody out, instead relying on defense to do the job behind him. That's not gonna work out well.
      I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.
      He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00.
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      'So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal? '

      Does it matter that even Blackburn was better than Correia in 4 of the last 5 seasons?
      To me it does... To most... They will just say they are both crappy and hope that we pick up Greinke.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      'So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal? '

      Does it matter that even Blackburn was better than Correia in 4 of the last 5 seasons?
      To me it does... To most... They will just say they are both crappy and hope that we pick up Greinke.
      Seems to me most would be happy if we managed to get Marcum and/or Jackson...
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      [QUOTE=ThePuck;70420]
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian;70414

      I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.[/QUOTE
      View Post

      He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00.
      Bill James projects 4.09 in 2013.
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      'So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal? '

      Does it matter that even Blackburn was better than Correia in 4 of the last 5 seasons?
      To me it does... To most... They will just say they are both crappy and hope that we pick up Greinke.
      Seems to me most would be happy if we managed to get Marcum and/or Jackson...
      Me included... However... Marcum and Jackson were not overwhelmingly better stat wise in 2012.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      [QUOTE=Riverbrian;70423]
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian;70414

      I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.[/QUOTE
      View Post

      He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00.
      Bill James projects 4.09 in 2013.
      yeah, James is my boy...but that's wacky. He's not going to come to the AL, face DHs instead of pitchers, not strike anyone out, count on OUR defense, and get an ERA that low...and lower than last year, his lowest in 3 years

      A miracle.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Marcum hasn't had an ERA over 3.70 in 4 years...two of those years in the AL East. He also Ks some people.. ERA+ over 110 last 4 years. Jackson, slightly less impressive...both way better than Correia.

      We aren't asking much...
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      [QUOTE=ThePuck;70426]
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian;70414

      I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.[/QUOTE
      View Post

      He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00.
      Bill James projects 4.09 in 2013.
      yeah, James is my boy...but that's wacky. He's not going to come to the AL, face DHs instead of pitchers, not strike anyone out, count on OUR defense, and get an ERA that low.

      A miracle.
      I'm a huge Bill James Fan... When he started doing his thing... He had the balls to keep doing it in the face of everyone telling him it was garbage... It didn't stop him and look what happened... He changed baseball.

      However... Bill still hasn't figured out how to project with absolute certainly so we can take it with a grain of salt.
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Marcum hasn't had an ERA over 3.70 in 4 years...two of those years in the AL East. He also Ks some people.. ERA+ over 110 last 4 years. Jackson, slightly less impressive...both way better than Correia.

      We aren't asking much...
      No doubt on Marcum... And Jackson... I'd like them both and I'd settle for one and I don't care what it costs. I think our difference in opinion is going to hinge on the "way better" part.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
      I'm a huge Bill James Fan... When he started doing his thing... He had the balls to keep doing it in the face of everyone telling him it was garbage... It didn't stop him and look what happened... He changed baseball.

      However... Bill still hasn't figured out how to project with absolute certainly so we can take it with a grain of salt.
      Yeah, unfortunately, he really hasn't done a good job over the years at projecting...but, like you, I'm still a fan
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Sabathia had an ERA+ of 124 this year. Gavin Floyd had an ERA+ of 101. 23 point difference. Were they close?

      23 point difference between Marcum and Correia in ERA+ last year...33 in 2011...47 in 2010.
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Sabathia had an ERA+ of 124 this year. Gavin Floyd had an ERA+ of 101. 23 point difference. Were they close?

      23 point difference between Marcum and Correia in ERA+ last year...33 in 2011...47 in 2010.
      Well... CC's adjusted ERA tells me that he was 24 percent better than average... and Gavin is about Average.

      Honestly,.. I look at advanced metrics but I go back to the basics quite a bit because it all gets spun from the basics.

      You got 32 more innings out of CC and 5 less earned runs allowed... so I'd say the difference between those two is fairly large. Plus 1.14 to 1.36 WHIP difference.

      You got 47 less innings out of Marcum. Similiar WHIP and Similiar QS%. So the difference isn't that large.

      As for adjusted ERA... Its just ERA weighted... When you get around the exact center (100)... That is where everyone congregates... It's going to heavily skew the percentage differences because of the volume of players in that average area.

      Its a funnel.. Lots of average pitchers and it funnels upward to a much lower number of elite pitchers.
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