• Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects



    Now that the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook is available, itís time for me to hunker down and dive head-first into the 2013 version of the Twins Prospect Handbook. Itís hard to believe that this will be the 5th annual prospect book already. I enjoy doing the research and the writing, for sure.

    As I did last year, I want to welcome your feedback. To encourage that, I am sharing my early, preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospect list. As I research and write over the next two months, it is not only subject to change, but likely to change.
    So, here is my preliminary Top 50 list without much comment. Please feel free to discuss, disagree, ask questions, mention players that I didnít, and generally just chat away.

    Sethís Preliminary Top 50

    Rank Player POS
    1 Miguel Sano 3B
    2 Byron Buxton OF
    3 Aaron Hicks OF
    4 Oswaldo Arcia OF
    5 Eddie Rosario 2B
    6 Kyle Gibson RHP
    7 Jose (JO) Berrios RHP
    8 Max Kepler OF
    9 Kennys Vargas 1B
    10 Joe Benson OF
    11 Travis Harrison 3B
    12 Adrian Salcedo RHP
    13 Danny Santana SS
    14 Chris Herrmann C/OF
    15 BJ Hermsen RHP
    16 Alex Wimmers RHP
    17 Adam Walker OF
    18 Mason Melotakis LHP
    19 Jorge Polanco IF
    20 Pedro Hernandez LHP
    21 Danny Ortiz OF
    22 Matt Summers RHP
    23 Luke Bard RHP
    24 Levi Michael 2B
    25 Hudson Boyd RHP
    26 Nate Roberts OF
    27 Niko Goodrum SS
    28 Kuo-Hu Lo RHP
    29 Michael Tonkin RHP
    30 Madison Boer RHP
    31 Bruce Pugh RHP
    32 JD Williams OF
    33 Angel Mata RHP
    34 DJ Baxendale RHP
    35 Tyler Duffey RHP
    36 JT Chargois RHP
    37 Zach Jones RHP
    38 Randy Rosario LHP
    39 Jason Wheeler LHP
    40 Josh Burris RHP
    41 Matt Hauser RHP
    42 Josue Montanez LHP
    43 Tom Stuifbergen RHP
    44 Dereck Rodriguez OF
    45 Corey Williams LHP
    46 Romy Jimenez OF
    47 Austin Malinowski LHP
    48 Tyler Jones RHP
    49 Brett Lee LHP
    50 Jeremias Pineda OF


    There you have it, 1-50. There are some names that Iím sure we all think have been left off. Guys like Pat Dean and Lance Ray and Evan Bigley have been on the list before. Left-handers who pitched incredibly well in Beloit (like David Hurlbut, Matt Tomshaw and 2012 draft pick Taylor Rogers) could be on this list. Minnesota native and former Gophers infielder Nate Hanson did a terrific job for the Rock Cats this year, especially after moving to second base. Fellow Rock Cat James Beresford would be on this list, but at this point, he has not re-signed with the Twins. Aderlin Mejia was an All-GCL choice this year. Candido Pimentel was the Appy League MVP.

    To come up with a Top 10 list of Twins prospects this year is really easy. However, I have not had this much trouble starting at about 16 or so in my 7-8 years of making these types of lists. Itís not that there isnít some really good talent. There are a lot of players who were just recently drafted. There are some really talented, potentially impact relievers. Injuries have had some effect on this list, no question.

    I feel like Kyle Gibson, who I ranked #6, should be several places higher. However, I just canít get myself to move him in front of the top 5. But thatís a great place to start the discussion. I think most would agree with who is in the top seven on this list, but what order would you have them in?

    Again, feel free to discuss, ask questions, make cases for players, whatever you like.
    This article was originally published in blog: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 44 Comments
    1. Fire Dan Gladden's Avatar
      Fire Dan Gladden -
      Sorry Seth, 50 is too many. The list starts to lose any meaning after 20-25 considering you just named about a third of the entire organization.
    1. righty8383's Avatar
      righty8383 -
      Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
      wow and you dont even have slama in the top 50 ?
      so much for stats huh...hermsen is rated high and heres a kid with a below average fastball no out pitch who the twins hope and believe can be a back of the rotation starter , maybe a decent #4 or 5 guy , and once again athony gets dissed
      I'd say Slama is easily a top 50 Twins' minor leaguer, just not really a prospect anymore. Thats not meant to be a diss...
    1. ericchri's Avatar
      ericchri -
      Harrison is even less likely to stick at 3B than Sano, correct? Are any of our SS prospects candidates to move to 3B?
    1. jjswol's Avatar
      jjswol -
      A pretty good list Seth. Since you have been doing this for 7-8 years, how about just for fun posting you previous 20 top lists to review somwhere on this site.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
      so because he was drafted higher , he is better? wonder if mike piazza thinks that way,
      also a reliever in college and we are going to transorm him here?why not just draft say gausman or zimmerman?
      At this stage, yes... do you think that Piazza was instantly a top prospect when he was a 62nd round pick? No, but he played great and moved up lists quickly. We've got like 20 innings on all of these college relievers, at low levels, so we know pretty much nothing yet.

      And, they took the best player available (Buxton), so they couldn't get Gausman or Zimmer.
      That's a legit arguement regarding Bard. There is probably still some residual resentment from some of us surrounding the guy. He was not a popular draft pick and then pitched below expectaions and was injured in his short professional debut. The small sample size arguement is all the harder for optomists to swallow because it then invalidates the success of the eight or so drafted arms who pitched well above expectations last year.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      That's a legit arguement regarding Bard. There is probably still some residual resentment from some of us surrounding the guy. He was not a popular draft pick and then pitched below expectaions and was injured in his short professional debut. The small sample size arguement is all the harder for optomists to swallow because it then invalidates the success of the eight or so drafted arms who pitched well above expectations last year.
      I don't want to invalidate those successes, but we always have to be careful about making too much out of college pitchers putting up insane numbers in E-town. However, 5 guys from this year's draft moved up to Beloit and still did well. But some will move into starting roles (Rogers, Baxendale, Bard, etc.) and that will be an adjustment. The relievers could move quickly to New Britain and that's when they should start getting challenged.
    1. SarasotaBill's Avatar
      SarasotaBill -
      Ratings based on who I would rather keep or trade :
      Too high:
      - Salcedo - low k rate even before injury
      - Herrmann - back-up C/OF
      - Santana - OBP is too low
      - Hernandez - nothing special (AAA pitcher)
      - Ortiz - way too high
      - Boer - gives up too many hits/IP

      Too Low:
      - Minier - even though he hasn't played yet, bonus indicates top 25 to start
      - Zach Jones - 2012 relief arms are underrated
      - Michael - 2nd Half stats were good (386 OBP)
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaBill View Post
      Ratings based on who I would rather keep or trade :
      Too high:
      - Salcedo - low k rate even before injury
      - Herrmann - back-up C/OF
      - Santana - OBP is too low
      - Hernandez - nothing special (AAA pitcher)
      - Ortiz - way too high
      - Boer - gives up too many hits/IP

      Too Low:
      - Minier - even though he hasn't played yet, bonus indicates top 25 to start
      - Zach Jones - 2012 relief arms are underrated
      - Michael - 2nd Half stats were good (386 OBP)
      I'd also add Hermsen and Summers to that list. I just don't see how pitchers who struggle that badly to strike guys out in the low minors are going to be able to contribute at the major league level.
    1. iastfan112's Avatar
      iastfan112 -
      I'm fine with Salcedo, compared with the others his "stuff" is talked about as being pretty good, that he should get more strike outs then he does thus far. With Hermsen his velocity dipped after being drafted(I saw him in HS, he threw quite hard then) and it's never picked back up.
    1. JP3700's Avatar
      JP3700 -
      Thanks for the list Seth. I'm surprised you left out your relief pitcher of the year A.J. Achter. I would have thought he'd be in your 30s with the other power bullpen arms.
    1. Thegrin's Avatar
      Thegrin -
      DJ Hicks is going to be the sleeper prospect.

      .He batted .270 in 115 ab, with 7 2b and 4 HR.

      http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=543306
    1. TRex's Avatar
      TRex -
      I am surprised that Sam Gibbons, a 6'4" 18yo Aussie who was pretty dominant in the GCL, didn't even merit an honorable mention. I thought you were high on him before the season?

      Sam Gibbons (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=611471).
    1. lightfoot789's Avatar
      lightfoot789 -
      I agree with DJ Hicks. He was limited this past short season (injury), but was as clutch as they come in each of his ABs throughout the season & playoffs. He is a lot faster around the bag as well, as a defender (Solid), than he is on the base paths. Crazy pop in his bat to all fields.
      http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp...vkey=news_milb
      MINOR LEAGUE MILBY AWARD WINNER
    1. Monkeypaws's Avatar
      Monkeypaws -
      Chargeois at 36? I think Sickels had him in his top 20. What's your take on JT Seth?
    1. clutterheart's Avatar
      clutterheart -
      I think you might have Mata too low. Also what about the 16 year old Dominican shortstop they signed last year?
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
      Thanks for the list Seth. I'm surprised you left out your relief pitcher of the year A.J. Achter. I would have thought he'd be in your 30s with the other power bullpen arms.
      Achter isn't a power arm in the same way... He's a really good pitcher. He has multiple pitches and he's very smart. I don't think he's got quite the fastball as those other guys, but he's able to hit his spots. I'm a big fan of his, and I think he can reach the big leagues as a long reliever/7th inning type.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by Thegrin View Post
      DJ Hicks is going to be the sleeper prospect.

      .He batted .270 in 115 ab, with 7 2b and 4 HR.

      http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=543306
      He's a solid prospect. Of course, in the Appy League, we should be looking for much bigger numbers than that from a college power hitter. He didn't play every day for the E-Twins. He was a mid-rounds pick (16th/17th round) for a reason. He came up with the biggest hit of the season for the E-Twins in that championship game though.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
      Chargeois at 36? I think Sickels had him in his top 20. What's your take on JT Seth?
      he's a hard-throwing, 2nd round pick. Sickels generally ranks relief pitchers higher than I do. I typically don't rank them very high at all. So, the fact that the 30s, for me, is filled with relievers is actually quite revealing. I think that, if healthy, he could fly through the system. He could get to Rochester next year. He could be a late-inning reliever, and he's definitely someone to track.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
      I think you might have Mata too low. Also what about the 16 year old Dominican shortstop they signed last year?
      His performance in Venezuela is also saying he's too low on my list. The walks are something to watch, but there's no doubt that Mata has the talent. It'll be interesting to see if they have him start in Cedar Rapids next season.

      As for Minier, he'll be on the list in time, for sure. I'd like to see him put up some numbers (besides a big signing bonus) first. His signing bonus was huge though, so it'll be interesting to see if he comes to the States this year and gets time in the GCL.
    1. TexTwinsFan's Avatar
      TexTwinsFan -
      Seth- Where would Mitch Brown rank on your list based on his brief stint in Arizona? In 27.2 innings he had 26 k's, WHIP of about 1.1 and had a .204 BA against. Would he be ahead of Bard at #23?
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