While Most fans (and I am one of them) are hoping the Twins get a power arm with the number 4 pick tonight there is another possibility that is interesting. San Diego 3B Kris Bryant is leading College in HRs. Heck he has more bombs then the majority of college teams. That kind of right handed power is rare in the game right now. Also position players (aside from catcher) carry far less risk then pitchers. Oakland A's GM Billy Beane says you need 3 pitching prospects to fill one spot in the rotation because one will get injured one will regress and the other will fill out your rotation. Jim Bowden of ESPN.com says in an article that out of the past 20 AL and NL cy young winners only 2 (Verlander, and Price) have been taken in the top 3 picks. Also keep in mind the Twins 1st round pick at #2 in 2000 Adam Johnson. While some may argue we have Sano in the system there is no guarantee he stays at third (granted the same is being wondered with Bryant.) So while yes we do need pitching depth in the farm system right now, especially power arms, a hard hitting righty with huge power is far above a consolation prize. (sorry about the paragraph formatting it wont work when I hit the enter key)

Playoff Rundown: Whyeach team can and can’t win it all

Well it’s that time of year again, the greatest of those months, October. With the postseason about to get underway every baseball fan has one question on his or her mind; who will win it all? With that question in mind experts and amateurs alike try to look at the numbers and try to predict who has the best shot. However the same logic and metric we use in a regular season don’t always work the same in October. As we have seen in the past season anything can happen in a short series. October usually come down to who got hot at the right time. And with this year’s contenders the field is looking pretty even. However if you look at most of the World Series winners of the last few years there are a few common factors. So if we look at the Cardinals who came out of nowhere last year what went right for them? You know aside from David Freese hitting everything and then some. Well Chris Carpenter also pitched his tail off the entire postseason. So for me two factors stick out,t he ability to get hot for a stretch and top of the line starting pitching. Of course its baseball so anything can happen, the Cardinals also had the weather work their way allowing Carpenter to pitch game 7. All that being said let’s look at what’s right and what’s wrong with this year’s hopefuls.
New York Yankees
They scared their fan base blowing a ten game lead in the final month or so but managed to play just a little bit better then Baltimore to finish for the division lead and thanks to Texas falling apart, the number one spot in the American League.

Why they can win:
In the postseason it all begins and ends with pitching. TheYankees are 5^th in the league in ERA which isn’t great but not bad, however they are tied for 2^nd in strikeouts and 1^st in walks. On the front end of the rotation they have C.C. and Kuroda. The may be missing Rivera but Robertson, Soriano, and Phelps have all been good. On the offensive side they lead the majors in HR hit and the A.L. in OBP.
Why they can’t win:
C.C. has looked better his last two starts but there is still worry about his health. If you look at Andy Pettit’s Numbers they look good but it was a total of 75 innings, he isn’t exactly young anymore. As a team they seem to have trouble hitting with runners in scoring position. They are also kind of old as a team. A-rods been hurt, Texeria has been hurt. Defensively they have one of the worst teamsi n term of range. They also lack team speed. Something else that could come into play, They have allowed the 3^rd most HR in the A.L. part of that is because of the ballpark. However in the 1^st round they have to face either Texas or Baltimore who also have hit 200 or more HR and both play in hitter’s parks. And if they have to face the Rangers in a slugfest the Rangers have more offensive weapons to beat you with.

Oakland Athletics
They shocked the world by coming from 13 games back as of June 30^th and overcame the mighty Rangers on the last day of the season. They are on fire but they saying in baseball goes “Momentum is next days starting pitcher.”

Why they can win:
The A’s pitching staff has the best ERA among A.L.contenders. Every kid they have called up has stepped up and down thier job well. The bullpen has also been lights out. They also allowed the fewest homeruns. (Although the ballpark plays a factor in that.) They only hit 5 fewer HR then the Rangers. They are also the best defensive team in term of range and defensive runs saved among the A.L. Playoff teams.

Why they can’t win
They have no real ace. They are also throwing lots ofrookies out there and you always have to wonder how they will perform under the bright lights of October. Like the Yankees the hit home runs but have hit only.238 as a team with a .310 OBP. They also with the new format have to go into Detroit and face Verlander and Scherzer.
Detroit Tigers
They were one of the preseason favorites with all the spending, but they just got into the playoffs in baseball’s worst division. Can their super stars step up and carry them through October?
Why they can win:
When your rotation starts out Verlander, Scherzer, and Fister as your front three you’re in pretty good shape. They also have the bash brothers of Cabrera and Fielder with Jackson hitting in front of them. Then throw in the added advantage of starting the first two games at home under the new format and the Tigers look like they have a good start on things.
Why they can’t win:
Scherzers health is a concern; if he can’t go they will have to rely on Sanchez. Their offense is built around 3 players, you can hope Young steps up like he did last year maybe but Peralta, Avila, and Rayburn have al lhad down years. The bullpen has issues and Valverde is always an adventure. They could also give away several runs ranking at the bottom in almost all defensive categories.

Texas Rangers
The Rangers lost 7 of their last 9 games to blow a big division lead. Five days ago they were considered the most talented team in baseball.The question now is whether that last stretch was a fluke or a trend.

Why they can win:
They still have loads of talent. The O’s and Yankees both have more home runs but the Rangers have all around better hitting and have the ability to run the bases. Despite the lack of a true ace they have pitching depth. The bullpen has been very good all season. Defensively they are behind the A’s but way ahead of the other three possible A.L. Opponents.

Why they can’t win:
Having to use Darvish in the Wild Card game will hurt their chances. Then there is the fact that anything can happen in a single game. They don’t have that Ace to go toe to toe with the likes of a Sabathia or Verlander. And all the other A.L. Managers can manage circles around Ron Washington.

Baltimore Orioles
They Joined the A’s in shocking the world to make the playoffs, however The O’s have everything go right and then some for them. That amazing stretch of one run wins and extra inning wins; can they keep that trend going one more month?
Why they can win:
Why stop now? Their biggest advantages are the bullpen, hitting for power, and the manager. Defensive metrics for the season are alittle skewed having called up Machado. The numbers are low but they have their good defensive players in the right spots at C, SS, CF, and 3B.
Why they can’t win:
They have a lack of an Ace or Starting pitching depth. The amazing trends they had going all season are far less likely to continue when constantly facing good teams.

Washington Nationals
Everyone expected them to be better, but not this much better. The big question is how much they will miss Strasburg.

Why they can win:
They still have two really good pitchers in the front of the rotation with Gio and Zimmerman. After that they are deep with Jackson and Detwiller. After that they have several good arms in the pen to shut the door.

Why they can’t win:
Offensively they are above average but not great. They need to rely on their pitching because they are not likely to win any slugfests. Not sure what they were thinking with how they managed Strasburg. Without him they are still good, with him they would be heavy favorites.

Cincinnati Reds
Tied with the Nats for best record in baseball can they keep up their winning ways in October against the likes of the Giants and their pitching?

Why they can win:
All 5 of the N.L. playoff teams are in the top 6 in pitching. The Reds however are tied for 1^st in the N.L. with theNats in E.R.A. and are 1^st among N.L. Playoff teams in Walks allowed. Their bullpen is going to be tough to score off of as well with Marshall and Chapman at the back end. Defensively they are second among N.L.playoff teams in UZR and defensive runs saved.

Why they can’t win:
Offensively they are challenged. They can hit for power, but some of that is Home Park. They don’t really hit for average or get on base outside Joey Votto. They are slow on the base paths as well ranking 3^rd from the bottom in the N.L. in stolen bases.

San Francisco Giants
It looks like it all begins with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgardner. The big questions though, can they hit? And can Tim Lincecum return to form?
Why they can win:
Anytime you can go 1-2 with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgardner you have to like your chances. The bullpen has also been lights out this season making up for the loss of Brian Wilson. Offensively they are not as challenged as you would think ranking middle of the pack in runs scored and 4^th in the N.L. in OBP and 3^rd in AVG.

Why they can’t win:
Tim Lincecum has been unreliable all season so he’s not an option if you need a must win. They also don’t have many guys who can knock the ball out of the park.
Atlanta Braves
They come in with everything clicking, the main thing standinging their way, a one game playoff were anything could go wrong.

Why they can win:
Chris Medlen has been unstoppable. Follow that up with Tim Hudson and Mike Minor and you’re in good shape. Add in a good bullpen with Kimbrall at the back and the door is all but shut with the lead. Defensively no one comes close having huge leads in UZR and defensive runs saved. All 3 of the outfielders could win gold gloves with Bourn and Heywerd the top 2 defensive OF in the N.L. The combination of pitching and defense make the Braves a tough team to score runs on.
Why they can’t win
Offensively they are middle of that pack in almost every category. If their pitchers have a bad night they will have a hard time catching up with the bats. Also they have to burn Medlen in a one game playoff in which anything can go wrong.

St. Louis Cardinals
O.K. time to ask the question, Can David Freese do it again?

Why they can win:
The cardinals have the most runs scored among N.L. playoff teams. They are also tops in AVG. and OBP.

Why they can’t win:
Well for starters facing Chris Medlen in a one game winnertake all is never a good start. Their pitching has also just been good enoughthis season. However Wainwright hasn’t really been Wainwright yet coming off surgery. No idea what you can get out of Carpenter since he has only thrown 17 innings. And Loshe’s numbers are somewhat misleading when you consider a low BABIP and HR% per fly ball. Also their defensive numbers are rather uninspiring and they have several players who are banged up and prone to injury. The road to repeat will not be an easy one.

In the end my predictions look like this:

A.L Wild Card: Rangers over Orioles

N.L. Wild Card: Braves over Cardinals

A.L.D.S. Tigers over Athletics in 5. Rangers over Yankees in4

N.L.D.S. Giants over Reds in 4. Nationals over Braves in 5

A.L.C.S Rangers over Tigers in 7 MVP Adrian Beltre

N.L.C.S. Giants over Nationals in 7 MVP Buster Posey

World Series: Giants over Rangers in 6 MVP MadisonBumgardner

Of course I’m wrong every year so that mean the Giants willprobably lose in the first round. But its October, Everyone grab a drink andsit down and enjoy some good baseball.

Well here it is, September, the stretch run. For me tied for the second best time of year with opening week and trails only October. This is the time of year when series become critical. I know a win in April counts the same as a win in September. However there is one major difference, a team with a losing streak early in the season has all sorts of time to recover. Right now teams only have about 25 games remaining.

Now I know the Twins are out of it but if you call yourself a baseball fan you have no excuse not to pay attention to these races. In the A.L. you have 7 teams that have between 77-73 wins all fighting for the East, West, and Wild Card spots. In the N.L. 3 teams are within a game and a half for the second wild card spot. The Braves only have a 3 and a half game lead for the first wild card spot, and the Dodgers still have a shot in the N.L. west. All that being said let’s look at the big series this weekend.

• The Yankees and Orioles continue their 4 game series this weekend. Last night in the top of the 8^th it looked like this might be the collapse everyone has been waiting on for the O’s. However the 3 home runs they hit in the bottom of the inning show that this team has no intention of folding. Still the O’s need to at least split this series and the Yankees need to avoid a sweep. The national media is slow getting on the Orioles bandwagon. A huge reason for that is because we are so used to the Yankees winning everything. However when some writers call it the Yankee birthright I say they look old. Arod looks awful while running and usually when a hitter has a hand broken its takes as long as a year for the power to return. David Robertson is giving up the long ball and they can’t afford to have him struggling. And as a team they can’t get on base. The key game is Saturday When C.C. takes the mound, if he doesn’t look good the Yankees are in trouble. As for the O’s is this season a fluke? Yes and No. Their run differential suggests that this is not sustainable. They are trying to set two records, most wins while being outscored by opponents, and most 1 run wins. Is it all luck? No, excellent bullpen, timely hitting and having guys step up in the rotation are keeping them going. They are having things go their way at a record pace though; they just need to make it last for 25 more games.

• The Tigers and Angels hook up in a big wild card series this weekend. At the moment both teams are on the outside looking in at third and fourth place. The Tigers trail the Angels by only half a game. Basically both teams want to sweep to potentially knock out a wild card competitor. Getting swept does serious damage to any wild card hopes. Both teams also face division opponents they currently trail after this series so they want to set themselves up in good position.

• The Dodgers and Giants have a huge series this weekend in what’s the best rivalry in baseball this season. For the Dodgers this weekend could be the season. They currently trail the Giants by four and a half games in the west and the Cardinals by one and a half games for the second wild card spot. San Francisco can all but lock up the west with a sweep this weekend. And unless St. Louis gets drilled by the Brewers at home the Dodgers will be hard pressed for a wild card spot too. The Dodgers need to get it started off right with their new acquisition Josh Beckett on the hill tonight against Lincecum. The Giants have the advantage in game 2 with Cain against Capueano. If the Dodgers find their backs to the wall trying to avoid the sweep on Sunday they at least have Kershaw going.

• Other series of note The Rays hoping the Yanks and O’s beat up on each other have a tough task in taking on Texas. And adding insult to injury the Red Sox battle the Blue Jays trying to avoid last place in the east.

• For our Twins this weekend all I can say is it’s about time they retire Tom Kelly’s number

Well it was an extremely disappointing series against the WhiteSox. Liriano’s trade value probably took a hit and the bullpen was shelled. On the plus side Willingham keep hitting and getting on base, however the Twins have come out and said they are not looking to trade him. All I want to do is scream “why?!” As I posted before Willingham is a luxury we cannot afford tokeep. He is putting up numbers no one saw him producing and he isn’t getting any younger. The only thing that is keeping me from bringing a sign to theballpark that says “Trade Willingham” is that it would probably look like an insult to him. That’s all I’m going to say about the current situation though and take a look at what’s going on around the league.

· The Pirates received Wandy Rodriguez from theAstros. The Astros in returned received a minor league OF and 2 pitchers. I don’t quite understand the move for the Pirates here. While I can see where more rotational depth would be helpful for the Pirates they have far more need for a bat. They also gave up one of the top 5 prospects in their organization, one that’s in the top 100 overall, for a starter that is just above average. More than likely Wandy is worth one win, maybe two, and the Pirates probably paid too high a price for him.

The Astros came out very well in this deal. Besides sheading a good chunk of payroll the acquired a good OF prospect in Robbie Grossman who is coming back from a broken hamate bone and has been on a tear the last two months. The Astros also received pitching prospects Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. Neither are big name prospects but they might have enough to become #5 starters or add some bullpen depth.

· The biggest trade so far is Hanley Ramirez going to the Dodgers. Hanley had more than worn out his welcome in Miami with his numbers declining and lack of effort. For the Dodgers the move made lots of sense, their third basemen have a line of .249/.308/.373and their shortstops have a line of .232/.285/.319. The big question is what are they going to get out of Hanley? Don Mattingly did a great job last year getting Matt Kemp turned around so maybe he can do it again. Sometimes a change of scenery or getting into a pennant race can revive a player. Hanley was not doing well in the minors when he was in the Red Sox system but a trade to the Marlins and playing in the big leagues really got him going. And we all remember what happened to Manny Ramirez when he joined the Dodgers in 2008. Then again he may have peeked early and his days of being an MVP candidate are over. Even if that’s the case he is a big upgrade offensively over what the Dodgers have on the left side of the infield. Depending on what he does Hanley is probably worth anywhere from one to four wins for the Dodgers. Good value for the Dodgers considering they also received Randy Choate to bolster the bullpen. They also didn’t have to give up their top pitching prospect in the deal.

For the Marlins the receive pitcher Nate Eovaldi. If you ignore the current win-loss record they may have picked up a pretty good piece. He has a plus fastball that’s 93-97 and an above average slider. Scouts say he needs to improve his changeup in order to get lefties out. The fish also received Scott McGough who could end up a big league reliever. So far a good week for the Marlins they may have gotten their 1-2punch or 2-3 of the future. On the downside after years of fire sales and shedding salary they final have their new ballpark and in its first year they are looking bad, no one’s showing up and they are in sell everything mode.

· The Yankees have lost Alex Rodriguez for 6-8weeks with a broken hand and while it’s a loss it’s not the lost it would havebeen a few seasons ago. A rods Walk rate is down, his strikeout rate is up, and his defensive has been bad. All that being said he is still a useful bat to have in the lineup. However there is no real need for the Yankees to panic and trade for a third basemen, they should have a big enough lead in the division to survive without him. The problem could be come playoff time. Players who break their hands or wrists usually have it take a while before their power comes back. This is not always the case but it’s the norm and that’s A-rods biggest strength.

· The Pirates have called up Starlin Marte one of their top prospects. He has power and speed and should help the lineup some. However scouts say his swing needs polish and he does not know how to take a walk. I think it’s a mistake to bat him leadoff with him with a 6.5% BB rate at AAA. (Of course as I’m writing this I’m watching his first at bat and he hits the first pitch he sees for a home run.)

· The Mets have called up Matt Harvey. He could probably use some more time in AAA but the Mets need someone in the rotation.This is probably the Mets last Gasp to try to stay in the race. (right now though he looks really good 2 innings in)

· If for some reason you haven’t noticed, Mike Trout is a feaking stud

Well if you have any comments, complaints, arguments, or notice I missed something feel free to let me know.

First of all thanks to those who read my first article thatI posted yesterday. I got more views then I hoped for. One person even likedit, thanks mom!
Well if it’s allowed on a Twins blog I have a few thoughtson yesterday’s trades. It looks like the Tigers are going all in for 2012. Theytraded a top 15 pitching prospect a couple fringe prospects and a sandwich draftpick for next season. What they got in return was Anibal Sanchez, Who is an aboveaverage pitcher and certainly a need for the tigers. However he has a 3.94 ERAin the National league and coming to the American League. He does have a FIP of3.41; however that doesn’t count for much in this situation when you considerthe defense that is playing behind him. The problem is compounded even morewhen you consider a groundball rate of 47.6% and the Tigers infield behind him.On the plus side he has a very good strikeout rate of 8.18 per 9. He should fitin nicely behind Verlander, Fister and Scherzer and gives them another solidoption in a playoff game.
They also received Omar Infante. Infante is nothing special atthe plate he makes enough contact to hit for a decent average but has a verylow walk rate and an OBP of .312. He has occasional power and speed, but not differencemaking. As far as in the field he is solid average at second base with a 5.5UZR. However compared to what the Tigers had at second base fans are going tobe calling him the MVP.
Overall the Marlins did very well in this trade getting agood pitching prospect for the future. I know some Tigers fans are down onTurner but keep in mind the kid is only 21 and may have been rushed to thebigs. The Fish also got a bit of a bonus with 2 prospects who could pan out anda sandwich pick which can produce some nice players.
For the Tigers Sanchez and Infante probably add 2-4 wins forthe rest of the season. The big impact is on the playoffs; this solidifies therotation and takes care of the gapping black hole at second base. Do I thinkthat the Tigers gave up too much? Yes, and if this doesn’t go well they couldreally regret it in the near future. However if them helps them win the WorldSeries, to quote ESPNs Keith Law “Flags fly forever.”
The other trade involved a big name and little impact. Foranyone gasping in shock the Ichiro is now a Yankee calm down. This isn’t theIchiro of old. His bat speed and leg sped are both down meaning he can’t slapand run like he used to. In fact his .288 OBP is just plain awful. In fact hiswOBA is .281 with .290 being considered awful. The value for the Yankees is hisdefense; it’s the one thing he still can do. Corner outfield defense for theYankees has been brutal this year and Ichiro is still a plus defender. So forthe Yankees you take the defense, bat him at the bottom of the order and maybehe can use his speed for a small advantage with the top of the order up.
As for the Mariners they got 2 non prospects for Ichiro anda large chunk of cash. Their biggest gain does not have to worry about resigningIchiro in the offseason and dealing with the fan base about it.

Well if anyone has questions or comments feel free and I’lldo my best to get back to you. If you think I’m nuts go ahead and tell me why.If you have any questions about the metrics either ask in the comments or visitfangraphs.com and look at the glossary.

First let me say that I think Willingham has been great thisseason. Besides the big power numbers he is also posting a .389 OBP, tied for 8^thin the American league with Miguel Cabrera. Also he is tied for 8^thin the league in HR again with Miguel Cabrera. In fact if you dive deeper intothe numbers Willingham is in the top 10 as well in ISO (Isolated power), BB%(Base on ball percentage) SLG%, wOBA (Weighted on Base Average) wRC (weighted runscreated) and wRAA (weighted runs above average). Willingham also has a W.A.R.(Wins Above Replacement) of 3.6, which is higher than players with names likeDavid Ortiz, Jose Bautista, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, and Prince Fielder. Whenyou add it all up Willingham is in the top 10 offensive players in the AL.
Now you might look at those numbers and think the Twins needWillingham we would be hurting even more without him. And you would be right, asfar as Win Probability Added there is no one better in the AL then JoshWillingham. He is also a right handed power bat which is becoming more valuablethese days. All that being said these are the reasons the Twins need to trade Willingham.
It’s time to realizethat we are in rebuilding mode, we don’t have much in the form of a pitchingstaff, the offense has been ok but not great, and we are showing nothing thatsuggests the twins can climb into contention. The eye needs to move to thefuture and the best way to build that is to restock the farm system. While Spanand Liriano could bring back some decent prospects, a big right handed powerbat is probably our best bet to land a big prospect. And the best time to tradeWillingham is either by the July 31^st trade deadline or in theoffseason. Keep in mind Willingham is 33 years old this is probably his topyear. If the Twins wait until 2014 in the last year of his contract and he onlyhas about 10 HR at the deadline his trade value in very little when youconsider he is below average defensively. Right now when he is getting on base,hitting for power in a pitchers park, and the fact that he has a very friendly contractfor a player of his current offensive ability, now is when is value isgreatest.
One may argue that this is a guy the twins need to buildaround, and if Willingham was 23 instead of 33 I would agree with you. Most likelywhen the Twins are competitive again Willingham will not be on the team or hisnumbers will be way down. While I love the signing of him and what he has donefor the team the best thing he can do know is bring back future value to theteam.

If you have questions about the stats I used at thebeginning of the blog look at fangraphs.com they have a glossary to explain them.