Twins Daily Forums - Blogs - TwinsGeek.com by John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/blog.php?7-TwinsGeek-com The top destination on the web for Twins conversation. en Fri, 18 May 2012 22:01:35 GMT vBulletin 60 http://twinsdaily.com/images/misc/rss.jpg Twins Daily Forums - Blogs - TwinsGeek.com by John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/blog.php?7-TwinsGeek-com Are We Ever Biased Towards Umpire Bias? http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1052-Are-We-Ever-Biased-Towards-Umpire-Bias Thu, 17 May 2012 01:47:17 GMT There is no question that umpires have biases. The question is whether we want them or not. A couple of years ago I reported on a book that I... There is no question that umpires have biases. The question is whether we want them or not.


A couple of years ago I reported on a book that I was reading titled Scorecasting by Tobias J Moskowitz and L. Jon Weerthem. This writeup is going to copy a lot of that story. The book is similar to the book Freakonomics, except that it focuses exclusively on sports. If you have an iPad or iPhone, you can download the first chapter for free – and just that much changed forever how I watch baseball.


The chapter is about a bias that umpires have because they are, with the possible exception of Joe West, human. And humans are far more willing to forgive an error of omission over an error of commission. That is, we are more willing to forgive an error caused by doing nothing over an error caused by doing something. And thus humans are for more willing to commit an error of omission over an error of commission, because it gets us into less trouble. I’ll give an example from the book:


“In a well-known psychological experiment, the subjects were posed the following question: Imagine there have been several epidemics of a certain kind of flu that everyone contracts and that can be fatal to children under three years of age. About 10 out of every 10,000 children with this flu will die from it. A vaccine for the flu, which eliminates the change of getting it, causes death in 5 or every 10,000 children. Would you vaccinate your child?”


Most parents opted to NOT to vaccinate their child, despite it halving the chances of their child dying. The thought of doing something to the child which would cause his or her death was worse than the though of doing nothing and doubling the chances of death. The same bias is statistically apparent in umpires when it comes to calling balls and strikes and now I can’t help but notice it.


In 2007, mlb.com installed the pitch f/x equipment in all the ballparks, providing data on 2 million pitches, including 1.15 million called pitches. Suddenly we could see from data how accurate umpires were in calling balls and strikes, and whether there are any circumstances that made them less accurate. It turns out there are.


A ball that is in the strike zone is called accurately by an umpire 80.2% of the time. But that number dives if there are two strikes on the batter (and it isn’t a full count). Then, a ball in the strike zone is called a strike just 61.3% of the time. He’s almost twice as likely to mistakenly count a strike as a ball. Again, don’t forget – we KNOW that these are really strikes from the f/x data.


The same thing happens the other way on pitches outside the strike zone on three-ball counts, though it’s not quite so drastic. A pitch outside the strike zone is called a ball 87.8% of the time, but if there are three balls (and it’s not a full count) it’s only called a ball 84% of the time.


The reason? Because calling strike three or ball four ends the at-bat. It’s active – it affects the game far more than giving the batter and pitcher another pitch to resolve the at-bat themselves. The incentive is toward the error of omission rather than that of commission.


Incidentally, this is most apparent on borderline pitches. Over all counts, a borderline is called a strike 49.9% of the time – almost literally a coin flip. But with a 2-strike count (again not a full count) it’s called a strike just 38.2% of the time. And with a three ball count, it’s called a strike 60% of the time. The percentages become even more extreme on 3-0 and 0-2 counts.


This may be a bias that we, as fans, want to reward. For the first time, I thought about whether or not I really want to take that kind of call out of an umpire’s hands. Don’t we want someone who prompts the batter and pitcher to resolve their conflicts themselves? Even if it might not be a perfectly accurate call. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1052-Are-We-Ever-Biased-Towards-Umpire-Bias Random Thoughts On A Random Loss http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1028-Random-Thoughts-On-A-Random-Loss Tue, 15 May 2012 03:54:55 GMT I don’t know if these are questions, or thoughts, of forum topics, but after a 13-hour day, I’m pretty much free associating. Let’s see what happens.... I don’t know if these are questions, or thoughts, of forum topics, but after a 13-hour day, I’m pretty much free associating. Let’s see what happens.

Because Fourth Place Is Just Five Games Away?
Why is Carl Pavano pitching? The Twins long term strategy regarding Pavano needs to be to have him demonstrate enough success to get some value for him at the trade deadline, right? What is the purpose of trotting him out there at 80% to look below average? Get him healthy, let him string a strong month or so together and then shop him in July. Doesn’t this have to be the strategy? Why isn’t this the strategy?

Or Maybe It Was Andy’s Whoopie Cushion.
Liriano was Liriano. To me, the most encouraging sign wasn’t that he got the first five guys out, or that he bounced back to get out of the second inning after almost completely falling apart, or that he struck out three guys. It was that he smiled and laughed on the bench with Rick Anderson for the first time since last May.

Including The Door On Your Wait Out.
Capps hasn’t been bad this year, though last night was the second game he cost the Twins. I won’t site how many games he’s “saved” as evidence, but I think it’s worth noting that his WPA is still in positive territory even after losing 30 points last night. Mostly he’s still just Matt Capps – he has been for years, so he should know how by now.
For all the talk about his new pitch, he’s got the same strikeout rate, a high home run rate and though he’s walking fewer guys. To me, he’s in the same boat as Pavano – the team needs to do whatever they can to boost his value, and if that means closing, then close away.

Plus, We’ll Resemble The Pirates
Ryan Doumit’s OPS is up to 763 after last night’s game, which is a lot closer to the bat I thought we were getting. That’s a season high mark – he was as low as 550 before he broke out in that Sunday game in Seattle, which was just a little over a week ago.

But the better news is that he’s worked out far better than I ever thought he would so far. His defense at catcher is better than we had heard. He’s hitting left-handers better than I had anticipated (albeit without any power). And he’s been healthy. He’s also been the ideal guy to play on a team with Joe Mauer. I’m anxious to move a lot of guys at the trade deadline, but Doumit isn’t one of them. I don’t know what it would take to sign the 31-year-old, and I’d want to limit the years, but he looks like a hell of a good fit for this team for the next few years. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1028-Random-Thoughts-On-A-Random-Loss <![CDATA[Gleeman & the Geek Ep 41: Shake-ups and Wake-ups]]> http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1020-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-41-Shake-ups-and-Wake-ups Mon, 14 May 2012 00:01:52 GMT Attachment 947 (http://twinsdaily.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=947)Aaron and John talk about the latest roster shakeup, including Danny ... Click image for larger version Name: p.jpg Views: 434 Size: 8.4 KB ID: 947Aaron and John talk about the latest roster shakeup, including Danny Valencia's demotion to Triple-A and Francisco Liriano's move to the bullpen, get a call from Aaron's mom for Mother's Day, marvel at Scott Diamond's unexpected gems, make their PickPointz picks and name last week's winners, and wonder what the future holds for Trevor Plouffe and Joe Benson. Here are:
]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1020-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-41-Shake-ups-and-Wake-ups Stealing Second With Runners On The Corners http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1009-Stealing-Second-With-Runners-On-The-Corners Sat, 12 May 2012 03:12:59 GMT I just listened to Denard Span short circuit a potential rally by trying to steal second base with runners on the corners and one out. He was caught.... I just listened to Denard Span short circuit a potential rally by trying to steal second base with runners on the corners and one out. He was caught. I wondered if that was an especially stupid decision.

It turns out, it's not that risky. Or at least it's not if you accept that a baserunner usually needs to steal bases about 2/3 of the time to be effective.

Generally, one studies something like this using Palmer & Thorn's Run Expectancy Matrix. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score that inning, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. You can find it here.

Here's the numbers we care about:
1. 1.088 - That's how many runs a team on average would score with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out.
2. 1.371 - If Span would've stolen the base, that's how many runs the average team would've scored.
3. 0.382 - If he was caught, that's how many runs the average team would score.

So Span risked a gain of .283 runs if he stole that base, but a loss of .706 if he was caught. Converting those to percentages, if he steals that base 71% of the time, the team breaks even. That's not especially different than the 2/3 view that is the case for most base stealers. This wasn't especially risky. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1009-Stealing-Second-With-Runners-On-The-Corners <![CDATA[Changing Focus: The Danny Valencia & Francisco Liriano Moves]]> http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?992-Changing-Focus-The-Danny-Valencia-amp-Francisco-Liriano-Moves Thu, 10 May 2012 05:29:42 GMT At some (very depressing) point, as a season becomes turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been... At some (very depressing) point, as a season becomes turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been coming since the middle of last week. The turning point was tonight.

At some point, the focus changes from the team to the players. The moves become less about what the team needs, and more about what each player needs. It doesn’t necessarily mean coming down on one side or the other, but the balance changes. That balance changed tonight.

Tonight third baseman Danny Valencia was sent to AAA-Rochester and starting pitcher Francisco Liriano was sent to the bullpen. I like both moves, because I agree with the change in focus.

I don’t know if Valencia is ever going to be a competent starting third baseman in the majors. Nobody does. But I sure used to think so. This move isn’t a punishment – it’s a release. Valencia is hitting .198, 50 points lower than last year, which was 50 points lower than 2010. As bad as that is, that’s not the most alarming of his statistics. He’s also struck out 23 times in 96 AB – and walked just twice.

I don’t know what he needs, but he isn’t finding it here. I won’t argue with those suggesting that it’s foolish for a club to invest time in a 27-year-old’s career in AAA. But at this point, one needs to try things. Maybe AAA might reestablish Valencia’s confidence. With literally zero third base options in the Twins pipeline until at least 2014, why not try it?

Which is exactly the philosophy for the other big move. Liriano is moved to the bullpen to try and regain some …. well, name it what you will. Confidence? Mojo? Momentum? Or, if you're especially cynical: Equity? They all work. The Twins and Liriano have tried everything else, and short of demoting him (which I suspect he and his agent would resist) this is the last option.

If you’re of the opinion that Liriano needs to be traded for something valuable, I gotta think you like this move. Maybe Liriano can build some value. A decent reliever is valuable at the trade deadline. Even more so if he’s a southpaw. His value certainly can’t decrease.

As for the rest – meh. Matt Maloney was the odd man out with another lefty moving to the bullpen. That's unlucky for him. I like Darin Mastoianni as a infield/outfield utility guy, though his infield coverage is limited. One can argue whether he’s the best fit, but I’m getting weary of sweating where deck chairs should be moved. PJ Walters must have had the right mix of control, BABIP and veterany goodness to make him the default pick for the open rotation spot. That's not the way I would go, but I’m not nearly as close to this situation, and it's close to a tie. Whatever.

The bad news is that these look more and more like the moves of a last place team looking to the future. The good news is that is probably the correct philosophy to embrace. The focus is changing from the team to the individuals, and for both of these individuals, the change in focus looks to be wise. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?992-Changing-Focus-The-Danny-Valencia-amp-Francisco-Liriano-Moves Opening Presents Too Early http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?971-Opening-Presents-Too-Early Tue, 08 May 2012 03:40:21 GMT Brian Dozier turns 25 next Tuesday. That’s not young for a prospect. This spring he barely made the cut of Baseball America’s top 10 Twins... Brian Dozier turns 25 next Tuesday.

That’s not young for a prospect. This spring he barely made the cut of Baseball America’s top 10 Twins prospects. Above him on that list were Chris Parmelee (who is hitting .203), Liam Hendriks (who is being demoted to AAA-Rochester) and Joe Benson (who was demoted yesterday to AA-New Britain yesterday). He has never hit even double-digits home runs in his minor league career. Prior to this year, he was never a fulltime shortstop in the minors.

Anticipation, especially prolonged anticipation, can really skew expectations. Dozier has been talked about since the middle of last year by manager Ron Gardenhire. At the time, Gardenhire was also desperate for anything resembling a competent middle infielder. If you’re especially optimistic about Dozier’s debut this week, that prolonged anticipation is likely the cause, more so than any promise he’s shown in the minor leagues. Along with his other challenges, he will likely be dealing with inflated expectations.

But there may be a bigger challenge. Dozier is likely being rushed. After spending three years navigating through rookie ball, A-ball and AA-ball, he’s had all of a month at AAA. He hasn’t posted particularly impressive numbers at that level: .276 average, one home run and two stolen bases, though he’s shown good control of the strike zone. And it’s not like he’s caught fire recently – he’s hit about .200 over the last several weeks after a hot start.

Finally, promoting Dozier now is an odd move financially. Major League clubs will often wait until the first couple of weeks in June to promote a prospect so he doesn’t reach arbitration a year early as a “Super 2”. What does that mean? The short answer is that if Dozier succeeds as a starting shortstop, the Twins will need to pay him a million dollars extra or more per year from 2015 through 2018, just so they could call him up a few weeks early this year.

So why now?

Initially, the answer seems obvious: in a lost season, why not play the youngsters? But if that’s the philosophy, then why is Liam Hendriks being sent back to Rochester? Why can’t Trevor Plouffe find his way into the lineup? And why not give Dozier another four weeks in Rochester to regain his stroke and lower his future compensation?

Instead, the answer seems to be the opposite. Dozier is coming up because things are getting desperate. He’s a lottery ticket, or maybe a more apt analogy would be that he’s a Christmas present that the manager (and maybe the organization) is anxious to open.

That’s fun, but it’s worth noting just how often that has backfired on the Twins in the last year. The fast-rising Hendriks made all of nine pitching starts in AAA, didn’t have much success and then struggled in the majors until he was demoted again. Ben Revere spent just a few weeks in AAA where he had trouble getting on base, did the same in extended time in the majors, and is back in Rochester. Chris Parmelee, after a strong September and spring training, skipped Rochester entirely and now has 20 strikeouts and four walks.

One might think that with that recent track record, an organization might be a little more conservative in their callups. Instead, the Twins are rushing a mid-level prospect to the majors to help save the season. I hope they (and Dozier) enjoy the moment. But it would sure be nice if this present wasn’t returned. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?971-Opening-Presents-Too-Early <![CDATA[Gleeman & the Geek Ep 40: Morneau down, Dozier Up]]> http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?956-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-40-Morneau-down-Dozier-Up Mon, 07 May 2012 00:20:53 GMT Aaron and John talk about Justin Morneau's latest injury, Brian Dozier's arrival, swapping Clete Thomas for Erik Komatsu, giving Scott Diamond a chance in place of Liam Hendriks, their new PickPointz game, Ron Gardenhire's job security, bad news for Danny Valencia and Alexi Casilla, answering questions submitted by listeners via Twitter, and the latest from the minor leagues with special guest Seth Stohs. Here are:
]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?956-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-40-Morneau-down-Dozier-Up Just Better Than Awful http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?926-Just-Better-Than-Awful Thu, 03 May 2012 04:19:21 GMT Even prior to tonight’s shellacking, the Twins collective ERA sits at 5.59, last in the major leagues. On the Gleeman and the Geek show last week, I... Even prior to tonight’s shellacking, the Twins collective ERA sits at 5.59, last in the major leagues. On the Gleeman and the Geek show last week, I asked “Can a team that ranks towards the bottom of the league in pitching even pretend to be competitive?” It turns out they can.

Since 2000, there have been five teams that made the playoffs even though they ranked in the bottom third of the league in ERA. One of them was the Twins. In 2009, after a tense game 163 versus the Tigers, the Twins snuck into the playoffs with the 23rd best ERA in the major leagues. That same year, the Angels won their division (and their first round playoff series) with the 21st best ERA.

The same thing happened in 2005 when both the Red Sox and Yankees make the postseason while ranking 24th and 22nd overall. Finally, the Phillies first trip to the playoffs in a decade (and the unofficial start of their current dominance) started in 2007, when they sported the 23rd best ERA. That’s a long ways from Halladay, Lee and Hamels.
None of those teams made it to the World Series. But two World Series winner since 2000 had an ERA that ranked as low as 16th – the 2000 New York Yankees and the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. In fact, the worse staff ERA has beaten the better staff ERA for the championship 8 of the last 12 years.

Last year was especially lackluster. Only one team – the top-ranked Phillies, had an ERA better than eighth overall. The other seven teams all fell between #8 (Tampa Bay) and #18 (Detroit).

More good news for the Twins is that there isn’t a lot of pitching firepower in their division. The White Sox are off to a fast start because their staff ranks 9th overall. But after that, there isn’t an AL Central team that ranks higher than 21st, who is Cleveland. Detroit (23rd) and Kansas City (27th) are floundering, too.

The Twins don’t necessarily need a miracle on their pitching staff to compete this year. They just need to not completely suck. That’s a pretty low bar to set, but it might be high enough to make this season entertaining. It also may be unreachable. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?926-Just-Better-Than-Awful Anatomy Of A Mauer Boo http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?903-Anatomy-Of-A-Mauer-Boo Tue, 01 May 2012 17:37:04 GMT I’m not particularly fond of how Minnesota treats its sports stars. The Puckett-like love affair is rare. More often, we pick nits. Kevin Garnett... I’m not particularly fond of how Minnesota treats its sports stars. The Puckett-like love affair is rare. More often, we pick nits. Kevin Garnett doesn’t score enough, or isn’t clutch enough. Joe Mauer doesn’t hit for enough power or doesn’t show enough leadership. Fran Tarkenton can’t win the big one, Harmon Killebrew is too quiet, Rod Carew is self-absorbed … the list goes on and on.

(There are forces at work here that are slicker and far more powerful than subjective analysis. It feels like it has to do with the human need for entertainment, or drama, or our self-identity forcing us from one side to the other to find our niche. I have to believe some bright person has studied this – the ebbs and flows of fame in a celebrity culture. If anyone knows of any books on this, I’d love to hear about them.)

I’ve defended Mauer consistently throughout his career. Most recently, it was an ongoing topic on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast for most of this offseason. The last time I wrote extensively about fan reaction to Mauer was just before his breakout 2009 season, in a story titled “I Was Promised Superstar.” If you have a minute, I think it’s worth the click. It recaptures the Mauer debate four years ago, and it’s funny how it has changed and how it hasn’t.

What hasn’t changed is the “health” debate. That was a concern eight years ago, and it’s a concern now, though the early returns this year appear positive. Whatever preparation or medical treatments Mauer has undergone are paying off, but I wonder if the important change wasn’t one of philosophy. Prior to this year, there was a “Iron Horse” stubbornness about how often Mauer should play catcher, certainly fromh Mauer and possibly with the organization. Catching wears down a player. (In fact, we studied how that hurt Mauer’s performance a couple of years ago.) This year, he’s playing every day, but “resting” at first base and designated hitter. And the overall results have been good.

The other debate that might benefit from a change in philosophy is the “power” debate. It seemingly went away in 2009 when Mauer hit 28 home runs on his way to the AL MVP award. It came back in 2010 when the Twins moved to Target Field and opposite field home runs became the stuff of fairy tales. In 2009, most of Mauer’s power was opposite field home runs. He’s hit just 14 home runs since the move to Target Field, and only two within its confines. To change that trend would require pulling the ball, a change that the uber-patient Mauer seems reluctant to even attempt.

It’s also worth noting that while it’s fun to cite “Games Played” statistics and what he’s batting with runners in scoring position, the overall impact numbers like WPA show that the fans know better than stats. Mauer hasn’t had a particularly positive impact on games this year. Friday night’s game (in which he demonstrated some power with a double and triple) was what finally lifted him to an impact above “historically mediocre.”

If you’re wondering why fans have booed Mauer, that might be explanation enough. He generated enormous expectations, cashed in on those enormous expectations, and in what should be his prime years he isn’t living up to them. Add to that a reluctance to change his philosophy, whether it be pulling the ball or swinging at a first strike. Finally, he’s also the face of a franchise – another role which he signed up for and for which he is richly compensated – which appears to be exiting its golden era.

Add that up, and you get frustration, and frustration, not ignorance, is why fans boo. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?903-Anatomy-Of-A-Mauer-Boo <![CDATA[Gleeman & the Geek Ep 39: Ragged Rotation]]> http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?880-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-39-Ragged-Rotation Mon, 30 Apr 2012 00:00:08 GMT Aaron and John talk about the Twins' terrible starting pitching, Delmon Young not going to Hebrew school, booing Joe Mauer, putting past division titles in proper perspective, Ben Revere's brief return, skipping Francisco Liriano, Ron Gardenhire's odd bullpen usage, and jinxing anything and everything. Here are:
]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?880-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-39-Ragged-Rotation Red Sox 6, Twins 5 http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?823-Red-Sox-6-Twins-5 Tue, 24 Apr 2012 04:47:34 GMT I blame myself. I do. Heading to the middle of the eighth inning, I’m forced to leave my seat to pick up my kid at 10:00. By the time I walk... I blame myself.

I do. Heading to the middle of the eighth inning, I’m forced to leave my seat to pick up my kid at 10:00. By the time I walk through the stadium, I’ve heard the roar and see Jamey Carroll standing on third base with no outs and the third through fifth batters coming up.

If I didn’t have to pick up my kid in 10 minutes, I SWEAR I would’ve stuck around. I mean – you know me by now. Is there anyone MORE superstitious?

Four blocks away from Target Field I say to The Voice of Reason™, “Have you heard a roar yet? I haven’t.”

“Nope.”

Me: (Heavy sigh.)

“Yep.”

One can frame this game a lot of ways. I’m sure the Boston papers will frame it as a Cody Ross redemption game. And if the Twins third and fourth hitters would have managed to do anything remotely similar to what one expects from the eighth and ninth hitters, it would have been a different game, and a different column.

But they didn’t. And it isn’t. Check that – SO it isn’t.

I can’t talk too much about those criticat at-bats. I didn’t see them live. I saw replays of the swings. Apparently, Josh Willingham hit the ball hard but lined out to the third baseman.

Joe Mauer swung weekly at an off-speed pitch and grounded out to first base. The at-bat looks worse because of how poor a hit it was – a dribbling play up the first base line. Of course, it was an off-speed pitch. On a full count, one might expect a pitcher to challenge a hitter, but with two bases open, why would he? He threw a 75-mph-pitch that Mauer had not yet seen and that was it. I want to come down on Mauer – I want to come down on everyone after this loss – but I can see what happened.

A few more notes about the game…

Capping Off A Loss
Hey, at least Matt Capps hasn’t blown a Save (capital S) yet - just a game.

Is that a cheap shot? Sure, but I don’t mean it to Capps. I mean it to the Twins, who seem to think that once a randome team sprinkles a guy with Magic Closer Dust (capital MCD), they’re forever a different guy. Capps now has four strikeouts in seven innings, which is under the league average, especially for relievers, but about average for him. To his credit, he hasn’t walked a guy. But he’s given up seven hits, which is about average for both him and your average major league pitcher. And, worse of all for a closer, he’s given up two home runs, which is about three times the average rate for a pitcher.

Hey, it’s small sample size. It doesn’t mean much.

Except that home runs were Capps’ soft spot last year and have been every year he’s struggled. He basically matched his career averages in all categories last season – except he gave up a couple of extra home runs. Which is what turned him from a below average closer into a really terrible closer.

Which one MIGHT have anticipated, if he wasn’t all glittery with that MCD.

Oooh, sparkly.

The Other Story
Minus that eighth inning debacle and a ninth inning home run, here’s what the game story would have included…
  • Gardenhire took a risk I didn’t anticipate with the lineup tonight. Faced with wanting to get Chris Parmelee in the lineup instead of Clete Thomas (for which there should be wild applause), he didn’t take the safe route. Instead, he gave Willingham a rest at designated hitter and gave Parmelee a start in left field. From what I saw, Parmelee didn’t embarrass himself out there, which is REALLY nice to see. I was really happy to see this.
But it didn’t pay off. Justin Morneau, who played first base, didn’t get a hit, and neither did Willingham. In fact, according to WPA, they impacted the game the most negatively of any of the Twins. Finally, Parmelee’s only hit came in the ninth, and was too little, too late.
  • Danny Valencia should have been the hero of this game. Taking a 1-2 pitch with 2 outs to deep center? Really? I really hope this is a sign of things to come. Soon.
  • The 6-4-3 double play that saved a run got the whole stadium excited. One can’t say enough about Carroll on that play, but it’s worth noting that the pivot was carried out by Trevor Plouffe. It’s exciting to see him make just a mediocre throw. That was phenomenal.
  • Is manager Ron Gardenhire pulling his starters too late this year? It’s late, so I’ll let someone else crunch the numbers, but Marquis gave up that home run when he was after 100 pitches. It seems like the last week or so, I feel like the starter is having a decent outing, but by the time they’re done, they’ve given up enough runs in their last inning to inflate their ERA. It certainly happened tonight.
  • Of course, part of that might be not having a lot of faith in the bullpen. Capps certainly furthered that concern, but did anyone else note that Glen Perkins didn’t make an appearance in the eighth again tonight? Perkins pitched yesterday, and was apparently unavailable, and that’s looking like a pattern.
The thing is, he pitched yesterday when the Twins were already behind. (And then he gave up a run, so the team was further behind.) Just so we’re clear on where Perkins is so far this year: he hasn’t been particularly good, he hasn’t been available on back-to-back days, he has been hurt, and he just got a long-term deal. Everyone got all that? Good.
]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?823-Red-Sox-6-Twins-5 <![CDATA[Gleeman & the Geek Ep 38: F Bomb]]> http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?810-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-38-F-Bomb Sun, 22 Apr 2012 23:50:50 GMT Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's latest ugly start, Luke Hughes leaving via the waiver wire, the clock ticking on Alexi Casilla and Danny Valencia, phone calls from listeners, why the bullpen has been better than expected, and why getting old stinks. Here are:
]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?810-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-38-F-Bomb <![CDATA[A Neanderthal's Rebuttal]]> http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?770-A-Neanderthal-s-Rebuttal Thu, 19 Apr 2012 03:09:35 GMT I wrote this in 2003, but somehow haven't revisited it for a while. Give the recent stadium kerfuffle, it seems like a good story to revisit, especially because it reflects a core tenet of this site: sports ARE important, and we don't shouldn't apologize for thinking so.
~~~~

Reject the fundamental assumption. After that, the arguments start answering themselves.

This Sunday morning I was awakened by our 3-year-old son, at the customary time of 0-dark:30.

"Dad. Is it mording?"

"Do you want some breakfast?"

"Yeah. Ana muffin. Ann milk."

"What do you say?"

"Pwease?"

Without waiting for a response, he speed toddles to the kitchen while I went to get the Sunday paper. Big mistake. Because by the time I was putting the lid on his sippy cup, I was already seething over the editorial by Jay Weiner on the front page of the Op Ed section of the Star-Tribune.

"When the sports furor dies down" is more rhetoric about how sports plays too big a role in our society. In particular, it points out that while the Twin Cities have been absorbed by the Timberwolves and Wild, the real world is still there, and it has real problems that we should start paying attention to. This argument is so common it's become a cliche: "It's just a game." What kills me is that sports fans, athletes and sportswriters simply nod in agreement, shrug their soldiers, and grunt something like "Yeah, I guess we're Neanderthals".

It's funny that I never see editorials like this about other distractions from the real world. I've never seen a column talking about how people need to quit visiting art museums so they can concentrate on the spread of SARS. Or that we need to collectively take a step back from listening to composers so we focus more on CNN's coverage of the War in Iraq. And the reason we don't see columns like this is because the thought it ridiculous. We go to Orchestra Hall and the Walker precisely because they provide an escape from our everyday lives. They challenge us. They show us new ways to look at the world. They provide us glimpses of truths by reflecting them in a dance or a painting or a movement.

Are sports so different? People who tuned into Game 7 between the Wild and Avalanche weren't doing so out of civic duty. They did so because it was a hell of a story. A hockey crazed state finally regains a professional franchise. Within three years, they assemble a collection of dependable but mediocre veterans and young talent, and somehow make the playoffs. Which lines them up to face the hottest (and one of the more expensive) veteran teams in the playoffs. Their fate seems sealed when they are a single loss from elimination, but they win a couple of high drama games and advance to face their division rivals.

Are you kidding me? Take your pick of truths to reflect upon: Self-sacrifice? Complacency? Youth? Hunger? Patience? Hard work? Confidence? Trust? Each of us takes away the feeling and glimpse that sticks with us. And we won't know which one it will be, in part because this isn't some trite drama where we know the ending. It unfolds for the actors at the exact same moment as it does for the masses.

But it's the existence of those masses that provides the real distinction between sports and the arts. One never sees columns like this about the arts because the arts don't attract as much attention. Sports is damned precisely because the masses do get caught up in the drama, and they will pay a lot of money to be a small part of it.

And that's the fundamental assumption that makes me fume, moreso since I started watching out for this little fella providing the morning wake up call. The fundamental assumption is that if the public is paying attention to it, it must be crap. The fundamental argument is one of elitism, and once it is questioned, the rest of the argument falls apart.

Why is watching sports so popular, both in terms of ratings and revenue? We've already covered that it provides compelling drama. It's also instantaneous, spontaneous and unpredictable. In addition, it's accessible, since most people have a passing familiarity with the skills involved for various games. That familiarity leads to discussion and feelings of community. Sports also translates well via mass media, such as print, radio and television.

There are a multitude of other reasons as well, all of which only start to become apparent when you reject the basic assumption that the public is a bunch of morons. But that assumption is rarely questioned. We assume it is correct. Ergo, sports is, at best, a guilty pleasure. Ergo, we are dupes. This is precisely the hidden point of this sort of rhetoric, that the writer sits in judgement of where we provide our attention, or of the values we embrace.

When I became a parent, I started becoming sensitized to this sort of game, to help my kids avoid the little traps that clever people play. As I watched the boy disperse muffin crumbs all over the kitchen floor, I wondered about the level of insecurity that would lead a person to attempt to convince folks that enjoying a baseball game with their family is irresponsible. And I seethed some more. Does this call for a letter to the editor? An email? I took a deep breath and decided instead that I needed something to reaffirm my faith in humanity.

Maybe I'll see if I can get four tickets to the next Twins homestand. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?770-A-Neanderthal-s-Rebuttal MLB Payroll By The Numbers http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?744-MLB-Payroll-By-The-Numbers Mon, 16 Apr 2012 23:33:58 GMT Every year USA Today examines the salaries (http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/salaries/team) of the Major League Baseball teams and... Every year USA Today examines the salaries of the Major League Baseball teams and their players and publishes them. Let's see that their numbers tell us about the Twins recent payroll cut....

Swimming Upstream
Twins payroll went from $112.7M last year to $94.1M this year, a decrease of $18.6M or 17%.

Overall, MLB payrolls increased 6%. If the Twins payroll from 2011 would have increased 6%, the payroll would have been $119.5M, $25.4M more than actual level.

Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan are making $25M this year with their new teams.

Prince Fielder is making $23M with the new contract he signed with the Tigers.

The top 3 free agent pitchers this year – CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish and Mark Buehrle – all have contracts that are back-loaded or, in Darvish’s case, come with significant money going back to his Japanese club. Because of that, those three are making less than $25M this year combined.

Not Alone
The Twins were not the only team to cut payroll. 13 of 30 MLB teams cut payroll. For instance, the Yankees cut payroll, too. They went down $4.7M to $197.9M, which is still $100M more than the Twins.

However, the Twins had the fourth biggest cut in payroll in dollars, and the fifth biggest cut in payroll by percentage.

But the Twins were not the AL Central’s biggest cut. That honor goes to the White Sox, who cut their payroll $30.8M. They’re still the second biggest spenders in the AL Central. The Twins are 3rd, $2.8M behind the Sox.

The Rise Of The Midwest
Of the top five teams with the greatest boost to payroll, three of them are in the AL Central.

Fifth is the Kansas City Royals, whose payroll rose from $36.1M to $60.9M, which is still $34 million less than the Twins. That 69% increase represented the second biggest percentage increase in MLB.

Fourth is the Detroit Tigers, who increase payroll $26.6M to $132M. Almost all of that can be attributed to signing Prince Fielder.

And second is the Cleveland Indians, who spent an extra $29.2M to raise to $78.4M.

The Miami Marlins, who moved into a new ballpark, had the largest increase, both in pure dollars and by percentage. Their payroll increased by $61M, more than doubling their payroll last year. ]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?744-MLB-Payroll-By-The-Numbers <![CDATA[Gleeman & the Geek Ep 36: Radio Radio]]> http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?730-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-36-Radio-Radio Mon, 16 Apr 2012 00:52:51 GMT In which Aaron and John take the podcast to the radio with their KFAN debut and talk about Clete Thomas' big first impression, Ben Revere's demotion to Triple-A, what the rotation looks like after injuries to Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, why Liam Hendriks is sticking around, what the future holds for Francisco Liriano and Alexi Casilla and what Delmon Young and porn have in common. Here are:
]]> John Bonnes http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?730-Gleeman-amp-the-Geek-Ep-36-Radio-Radio