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Buxton: "Pissed" at Twins for No Call-Up Decision...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 08:19 AM
According to the Star Tribune, Byron Buxton is displeased with the Twins after not being called up in September of 2018. According to Byr...

LEN3 Throws Cold Water on Hot Stove

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:45 AM
http://m.startribune...ings/502283381/ Don't get your hopes up. The Twins, according to LEN3, aren't going to do much at the winter meeti...

Where does the talent come from

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:44 AM
So I did back of the napkin math only here but looked at three recent WS teams to see how they constructed their teams. I only added up t...

Jonathan Schoop or Ian Kinsler?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:03 AM
Did the Twins make a mistake jumping the gun on the Schoop signing?   Ian Kinsler just signed with San Diego for 2 years $8M total....

Article: Official Rule 5 Draft Day Thread

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 12:51 AM
The Winter Meetings in Las Vegas have been fairly quiet against in 2018. Certainly there are meetings, but there haven't been a lot of si...

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Twins 2019 - Mid Range approach

Posted by beckmt , 04 October 2018 · 1,064 views

I have outlined in an earlier post how the Twins stack up with a minimalistic approach to next year. This is my attempt to show what will happen with a mid range payroll - looking in the neighborhood of $100 million.
Departures:
Mauer - retired
Santana and Morrison - bought out $2,000,000 total
Not offered contracts - Forsythe, Petit, Magill, Belisie, Slegers, Busnetiz, Duffey, Gimmenez, Gaterol - This should clean up a lot of 40 man space. It is possible some of these might be retained and see if they can be traded, most have little or no value.
Reenstated to the 40 man
Castro, Mejia
Added to 40 man
Thrope, Gordon, Wade - they are a couple more that may be close Jay is the one I am questioning, but am almost sure a bad team would take him in the rule 5 if not added.
Try to group and trade to a rebuilding club for a better starter - Gonsalves, Littlel, Moya, Curtiss
Possible others not offered a contract Field and Grossman

Roster
Catcher - Castro
Inf - Sano, Polonco, Austin, FA either SS or 2B spend around $10 million a year (this means we are taking from close to the top of the pile (after many)
Outfield - Rosario, Buxton, Kepler
Bench - Garver, Autudillo, Cave, Grossman, Adrianza
DH - rotation of non starters

Spend for players - around $30 million $35 million if Twins can sign Rosario to a longer term contract (expected for this scenario).

Starting Pitching - Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Oderizzi, Stewart/Fa/Romero - spend $32 million counting $8 million for year 1 of multi year Berrios contract. Not counting trade or FA which could push this to around $45 million
Relief Pitching - May, Rogers, Hildenberger, Drake, Mejia, FA1, FA2 spend $30 million - counting at least 1 top end FA reliever and a second very good 2nd tier reliever.

This is not counting trades - expecting more than 1 to send some depth pieces with potential to a rebuilding club for a #3 type starter or a very good reliever who will not be needed on a rebuilding club.

I am expecting Twins will pick this path - I may be an optimist.

  • nclahammer and Original Whizzinator like this



I expect the Twins to do more trading then signing this offseason.Though I can see some dumpster diving for relievers, a run at Escobar, after that it depends on what the Twins aquire with their stable of prospect they now have.

I agree that this is a likely path, and the path of least risk with respect to long-term planning. I'd be surprised if the club made a serious attempt at top free agents this year. And it doesn't seem like they are close enough to contention to commit their top prospects in a trade for a front line starting pitcher (if there are any to be had). I wonder if they even will commit the prospects to get a #3-caliber starter.

 

You haven't listed any youngsters on that roster. I also agree that the club will choose not to rush (i.e. start the service clock) on prospects if they can help it. The exception I think, may be Rooker. But I'd be very surprised to see him before June.

 

One of your bench positions that I'm not sure about is Astudillo. I know they've played him around the diamond a bit...but does he really provide enough value as an infielder to make it worth carrying a third catcher vs. a thirteenth pitcher? Another that I'm not so sure about is Grossman. I see that you question whether he will be offered a contract. I will be interested to which way they go with him. Was he a front office favorite, or a manager favorite?

 

It will also be interesting and informative to see how the club pursues free agent infielders. I wouldn't mind seeing a left side of Eduardo Escobar and Jose Iglesias, with Polanco shifting to 2B, and Sano moving to be the primary DH and spot 1B. I think that would tighten up our fielding considerably, and tide us over until the arrival of Lewis. (And Gordon?)

    • Original Whizzinator likes this

Middle infielder free agents who are at the "Top of the pile" (not including Machado):

 

Ian Kinsler - Age 36

Eduardo Nunez -31

Jose Iglesias -28

Marwin Gonzales - 29

Alceides Escobar - 31

Eduardo Escobar - 29

DJ LeMaheiu - 31

Brian Dozier - 31

Asdrubal Cabrera - 32

Josh Harrison - (if club declines option) - 31

Freddy Galvis - 28

 

Anything look appealing to you guys? I like Harrison, Eddie Escobar, and Jose Iglesias. Not sure if I'm in love with any of these players, though.

    • beckmt, woolywoolhouse and nclahammer like this

Some tough decisions. The Twins will explore the trade market to trade depth in lower level pitching if they find someone who they can control for 3-4 years at a decent rate.

 

I see some free agent grabs, but more along the line of guys who are better than minors but can't find a place in the majors (say Trevor Plouffe-like).

 

The big decision is, really, do they go after Escobar and where do they plan to put Sano...not just in 2019, but beyond. Or do they look to write off Sano and Buxton and wait for the next...wave.

 

They really don't have demands beyond Gordon and Reed and maybe Anderson for the 40-man. They can dangle Wade, if they wish. Take a chance on losing Jay.

 

I see them coming in around $75 million. They have $35 million on the books (all of which would be gone after next season). And assuming the other 35 players on the roster average a meek $1 million a head...well, you are there.

 

But, yes, they do have $50-60 million they could spend on free agents. Will they? I suppose we can be surprised.

 

Some tough decisions. The Twins will explore the trade market to trade depth in lower level pitching if they find someone who they can control for 3-4 years at a decent rate.

 

I see some free agent grabs, but more along the line of guys who are better than minors but can't find a place in the majors (say Trevor Plouffe-like).

 

The big decision is, really, do they go after Escobar and where do they plan to put Sano...not just in 2019, but beyond. Or do they look to write off Sano and Buxton and wait for the next...wave.

 

They really don't have demands beyond Gordon and Reed and maybe Anderson for the 40-man. They can dangle Wade, if they wish. Take a chance on losing Jay.

 

I see them coming in around $75 million. They have $35 million on the books (all of which would be gone after next season). And assuming the other 35 players on the roster average a meek $1 million a head...well, you are there.

 

But, yes, they do have $50-60 million they could spend on free agents. Will they? I suppose we can be surprised.

I am hoping the Twins extend Rosario and Berrios adding between 15 - 20 million to the payroll next year.Plus adding some top line relief arms to the picture.That is where the $90 - $100 million payroll is coming from.Do not expect the fill in middle infielder (unless Escobar) will be that expensive.