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On acquiring Yu Darvish or Gerrit Cole

Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco , 06 January 2018 · 1,634 views

yu darvish nick gordon thad levine trades gerrit cole
On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.

And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.

Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.

But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?

A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.

"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."

This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.

Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.

Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)

The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.

In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.

In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.

That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.

In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.

Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.

Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.

Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.

Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.

I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.

But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.

Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

  • Carole Keller, ashburyjohn, birdwatcher and 5 others like this

Jan 06 2018 08:16 PM

What are the major objections to the Colefor Gordon, Granite, Jay? The Twins have an abundance of OF and SS so the risk is Jay, I think. And only 2 years of Cole...wish it were 4.

    • nclahammer likes this
Hosken Bombo Disco
Jan 06 2018 08:28 PM
The Twins might really like Gordon. Not an unreasonable position. I don't think Jay should be much of a consideration, though he is a lefty and has stuff, so maybe he could be?

You know, IF you're the Twins and IF the Cole for Gordon/Jay/Granite deal is something you consider fair, why wouldn't you make that deal EVEN IF you do get Darvish signed? 


Those three prospects for 2 years of Cole seems a little high to me, but given my admitted bias toward Twins young players, that probably means it's pretty close to being a reasonable deal. I just don't quite understand why you would hold off on making it until you get an answer from Darvish. In fact, adding Cole might even show Darvish how serious you are about competing right now.

    • gil4, Oldgoat_MN, howieramone2 and 2 others like this
Hosken Bombo Disco
Jan 06 2018 09:56 PM
That is a good question, and I appreciate your IFs. There's just too much we don't know.

For the first time last season, I followed a few prospects regularly, by box score, to say nothing of attending games in person day after day. I can understand how it might be easy to project success on them, or give them too much rope. And maybe the Katoh projection for Gordon is off base and too low (Granite is already in the hole -0.2 fWAR, leaving him 7.0 fWAR to make up to meet his projection).
While I disagree that there is a 50/50 chance on Darvish coming here I liked the rest of your comments. The place where something like WAR gets over emphasized is when specific needs are ignored. This is such a case. Gordon's rankings and future seems to be going downhill lately, and I cannot believe that with the exception of his really cool name Zach Granite is quite easily replaceable. Jay would be a concern, but one has to give up something to get anything. To me, and I would imagine many others, the Twins need for SP is so desperate, that while not throwing caution to the winds, it certainly impacts their leverage in trade considerations. While that is not a best case scenario, it is what it is.
    • gil4 and Hosken Bombo Disco like this

I'd do the trade for Cole in an instant for Gordon, Granite, and Jay.Jay has been a disappointment, Granite's a 4th outfielder, and Gordon at a position of strength/depth in our system.

    • LA VIkes Fan, laloesch and howieramone2 like this
[quote\]You know, IF you're the Twins and IF the Cole for Gordon/Jay/Granite deal is something you consider fair, why wouldn't you make that deal EVEN IF you do get Darvish signed?[\quote] this! If competing for a 5 game series for ‘18-19 front end Rotation arms are a must. If you think you have them on the farm, they won’t be contributing to the front of the rotation anyways. Darvish, Cole, Berrios, Santana would strike fear into the hearts of GMs around the league and still not break the bank.
    • Hosken Bombo Disco and Platoon like this
The Wise One
Jan 07 2018 09:50 AM

That is a good question, and I appreciate your IFs. There's just too much we don't know.

For the first time last season, I followed a few prospects regularly, by box score, to say nothing of attending games in person day after day. I can understand how it might be easy to project success on them, or give them too much rope. And maybe the Katoh projection for Gordon is off base and too low (Granite is already in the hole -0.2 fWAR, leaving him 7.0 fWAR to make up to meet his projection).

The creator of KATOH has said that it is a far from perfect tool, probably more useful in identifying overlooked prospects. In determining value of prospects in a trade it might be useful for the throw ins, but not the main pieces of a trade.
Deduno Abides
Jan 07 2018 09:45 PM
The Pirates have seemed like an odd team for a while - quite good in pitcher development and turnarounds, and getting good value from low cost acquisitions, but almost a joke when it comes to trades. They seem to either hold onto players too long or give them away, and frequently seem to ask for the moon instead of making trades of equivalent value. They also seem to have had a run of odd behavior by players (and at least one LatAm scout); which raises wonder about what types of behaviors they’ll overlook.

By simply adding potential WAR, the Gordon+ deal feels better for the Pirates, just with Gordon and Granite, and with counting Jay simply as a bullpen lottery ticket. If Falvey and Levine think Jay is worth keeping, I’ll be good with that.

I am highly skeptical of this rumor.Personally if i was the Twins i would have jumped all over such a deal even with the pending decision on Darvish.In fact it could have been pitched to Darvish that the Twins are going for it and trying to make a run.Trading for Cole and signing Darvish would instantly make this team's rotation one of the better ones in the AL.  


Even if Cole is only signed two more years it still gives them a great rotation option at an affordable rate (although he will be arb 1 & 2 over the next two seasons).Then you make a pitch to extend him at the end of 2019 if you wish.

    • markos likes this