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A Suggestion for the FO for The Trade Deadline

Posted by mike8791 , 11 July 2019 · 1,351 views

Lots of great ideas for what Falvey and company should be doing this month. If you believe,as I do, that this team is for real and with a few significant upgrades, have a realistic chance to go far in October, then half-way measures will be hard to take for us long-suffering fans.

Hard to say if there is a greater need in the rotation or bullpen. Let's just agree both need upgrading for this team to approach quality of Yanks, Astros, or Dodgers. Yes, the bullpen has been somewhat of a surprise. Patched together with bandaids, it hasn't yet imploded. Rogers has been as advertised, Harper has been a pleasant surprise, and May gradually seems to be rounding into shape(though his control is still erratic). The rest of the pen is fraught with uncertainties but has certainly held its own so far. With this said, there can be little controversy over the widely shared idea that a shutdown closer must be added. They are available(see Smith, Giles, et.al. who are most likely available. In an ideal world, rather than wait for the July 31st trading frenzy, this FO should pick the top one or two relievers on the market and make offers that would be hard to refuse. Yes, we will probably overpay but our minor league depth is strong and we can afford to lose a couple of top 10 prospects for the right reliever. A top notch closer is a must for playoff success and hopefully, Falvey recognizes this and goes all in to get the right guy. Yes, one should be enough, but only if it is the best player available.

Turning to the rotation, there seems to be some debate as to whether an addition is needed and, if so, what type of starter should be targeted. Playoffs tend to be low scoring affairs, dominated by great starting pitching. Knowing that the Yanks and Astros lurk, do we feel comfortable with either of our two top starters, Berrios or Odorizzi, bringing home that all important W in Game 1. Berrios is having a great year but count me as a doubter when it comes to that all important first game. His brief playoff appearance against the Yanks was not impressive and he seems to be less effective against the big offenses. Odorizzi is even less certain, particularly based on recent appearances.

So, yes, a #1 starter would be a huge difference-maker to this team. This does not mean Stroman, nor does it mean present-day Baumgartner. Scherzer fits the bill but the likelihood of him being available is slim to none. This leaves two pitchers who might be available: Greinke or Thor. Greinke's cost in players might be reasonable if the Twins were willing to eat most of his remaining salary, but with the history of this franchise, the likelihood of paying $30MM/year seems close to zero. It is not in Falvey's or Pohlad's DNA.

That leaves Thor, who I believe would be available for the right package. True, he has fallen off this year but still possesses the best tools of anyone in our rotation. He would bring a fear factor onto this staff that we currently lack. We should go all in for him and I would start with offering Sano as one of the prime pieces. He would fit the need for a major league starter. If the Mets were not interested, then one of our two catchers should be offered. Thor would also require at least one if not two of our top pitching prospects or perhaps they would prefer someone like Pineda to step right into their rotation. A bold move like this would electrify the team by showing that managment is committed to going all in this year. It would be franchise-shattering and more important, move this team into the elite group vying for a WS Championship. We are not there yet, but with the right moves, this club could break the 27 year drought!




If the Twins go after another top-flight starter, woith control beyond 2019, it would be a plus. Means they could move one of their current rotation arms to the pen. Or be protected totally if someone is injured. Or just bad.

 

They NEED to get a closer. A shutdown arm in the pen.

 

Two specific needs. Do they have tthe 6-10 prospects to make such a deal? Could they deal, too, any of their potential free agents (Castro, Schoop, Pineda, Odorizzi, Gibson) and NOT suffer if they add the two pitching pieces? 

 

Be interesting to see them as buyers AND sellers, in a way. Eliinate up to 10 prospects and get two arms. Maybe deal and arm and a position player (or two - Schoop, Castro) and get five prospects back.

Latest from MLBTR :Mets would need overwhelming offer to trade Thor(or Matz).

 

So what might this overwhelming offer look like?Well, who knows what value the Mets place on various Twins, but I would think that two regulars, e.g., Castro( a free agent next year) and Sano, along with a starter like Gibson who is also a free agent after this season, should go a long way to drawing their interest.The Twins might have to throw in one or two of their top 10 prospects(not named Kirillof or Lewis), depending again on the Mets' evaluation of our prospects.This would deplete the Twins major league roster, but Sano can be replaced by Gonzales, Castro by Garver and Gibson by Thor.There would still be a surplus of prospects to land one of the top closers available, especially if a rental.

 

This would be a deal hard for the Mets to turn down, I believe.However, would Falvey take the risk?It really comes down to whether he believes Thor's decline this year is not a permanent thing but is due to a number of other factors.Prior to 2019, Thor has proven not only to be an ace in the regular season but also in the postseason.A trio of Thor, Berrios, and Odorizzi(or Pineda who looks better and better with each start) would be a formidable threesome in any playoff series.While the loss of Sano might come back to bite them, I don't feel his absence would hurt the offense(Marwin seems to be ab adequate run producer even if he's not the HR threat of Sano).

 

This would be the kind of bold move that could boomerang but it also could make the Twins a legitimate WS contender this year and the years to come.Thor is only 26 and has two more years of arbitration eligibility.There is no one else at this age with ace potential that is likely to be available now or in the forteseeable future.Do I think such a scenario will actually occur?No, but it is fun to dream the impossible.

I JUST commented on this very scenario in another article !!I agree with you 110% Mike.I had Thor and Edwin Diaz coming to the Twins for Graterol, Sano, Nick Gordon and another player.That player would be Jason Castro.Mets catching has been a disaster since Piazza retired.If I had to throw in a Gonsalves I would.An overpay?Maybe.Not enough?I don't think so.Sano replaces Todd Frazier who they will probably trade anyway.Castro becomes their starting catcher.Gordon could play SS or 2B (they have Rosario at SS who has been a disappointment and Old geezer Robbie Cano at 2B).Sano and Alonso along with Conforto gives the Mets a nice middle of the order.We go into a playoff rotation of Thor, Berrios and Odorizzi and Perez can come out of the pen where I think he'd be VERY effective.I don't want rentals like Mad-Bum and Will Smith.I want assets that stay with us.Thor is 26 years old.Acquire him and immediately start talking 4-year $100 million dollar extension.Wes Johnson and Co. could do wonders for Syndergaard.DO IT !!

Agree.Can't understand the clamor for a #3, at best, starter like Stroman, when the staff has 2 or 3 equal to or better than that.We need someone with playoff experience and who could anchor the rotation for years to come.Despite his down year, I have to believe Thor fits the bill and thus, would be worth an overpay.

 

One would think the Mets would have to listen to a trade proposal that would land them three immediate starters in Sano, Castro and Gibson, along with a sweetener like Gordon, maybe Rooker and one of our less-heralded minor league starters like Romero, Gonzales or even Thorpe.That is a load!I would not give up Graterol as our minor league system is thin in top-of-the-rotation starters, unless of course the Mets would prefer him to Gibson.

 

Aside from our FO's conservativism, there are some reasons why the trade might not happen.The Mets have Frazier at third and Ramos(at $10MM/yr) behind the plate.In addition they have Cano's albatross contract to contend with.So their willingness to trade Thor could be contingent on a team taking back one of these overloaded contracts.This could be a deal killer but it's worth the effort to "overwhelm" the Mets with an offer.Aces like Syndergaard don't come along often.Note he is arbitration eligible for the next 2 years, so if the Twins tie up Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda in longer term contracts, we would be set for several years in our rotation.What a breath of fresh air that would be for a franchise struggling to field a top rotation seemingly forever!

 

Latest from MLBTR :Mets would need overwhelming offer to trade Thor(or Matz).

 

So what might this overwhelming offer look like?Well, who knows what value the Mets place on various Twins, but I would think that two regulars, e.g., Castro( a free agent next year) and Sano, along with a starter like Gibson who is also a free agent after this season, should go a long way to drawing their interest.The Twins might have to throw in one or two of their top 10 prospects(not named Kirillof or Lewis), depending again on the Mets' evaluation of our prospects.  

 

 

 

You think the Mets would be interested in Castro and Gibson in a return for Thor?Why would the Mets want two free agents they can just sign over the winter?Sano, sure.But any trade for Thor starts with a top 5 prospect.Our free agents aren't going to be something they want.  

    • Trov likes this
Unless someone can point to an example and prove me wrong, and please do so, when a team trades away a top arm, they are looking for quality prospects. They aren't looking for a FA to be catcher.

Again, in such a trade, during a season and not off season, I dont recall a team trading a daily regular, such as Sano, in any kind of package. It handcuffs the contending team.

Thor would be very nice, but a trade for him would be based on prospects.
    • Trov likes this
Unless someone can point to an example and prove me wrong, and please do so, when a team trades away a top arm, they are looking for quality prospects. They aren't looking for a FA to be catcher.

Again, in such a trade, during a season and not off season, I dont recall a team trading a daily regular, such as Sano, in any kind of package. It handcuffs the contending team.

Thor would be very nice, but a trade for him would be based on prospects.

The Mets' GM has stated he wants the team to be competitive next year, not to go thru a rebuilding process.This attitude reflects the competitive market the Mets find themselves in - New York, where the Yankees reign supreme and where the fan base, unlike less competitive markets, is impatient for success.Van Wagenen showed his colors this offseason when he acquired Cano from Seattle in a flawed attempt to capture one more year of Cano's past success.The effort failed miserably, helping to fuel talk of additional major trades, beginning this month.

 

Of course, any outside observer does not know what's in a GM's head, but if any one wants to rebound quickly it's Van Wagenen.His head is on the chopping block.Would he trade one of his greatest assets in Syndergaard for mere prospects, no matter how touted they are?My guess is he would be far more tempted to go after a two or three for one deal where new players could step right in and make an immediate difference, no matter what their contract status is.Castro and Gibson would not be expensive resigns and Sano has a couple more years of arbitration eligibility.Sure, the Twins would have to throw in some top 10 prospects, but with major-league-ready players coming to NY, not necessarily a top 3 or 4 ranked prospect.  

 

No one knows how either GM views these players.Perhaps Van Wagenen does not see an overwhelming need to add Sano or Castro or another major league starter, but this has to be more appealing than adding just future prospects.My take is Falvey could get a deal done if he is willing to trade some established players to NY and with an asset like Thor, the Twins should make every effort to get it done.The window is wide open now!!

Mike8791You are hitting the nail right on the head.Look who we would be dealing with here---The NEW YORK Mets!Not Kansas City, Not Tampa Bay etc...This is a team and a GM who desperately need a quick turnaround NEXT YEAR.Thor is 26 years old.Edwin Diaz is 25.These are young pieces the Twins could build around going forward.Doc Bauer, you make a good point about trading a starting piece (Sano) in the middle of a pennant race but my counterpoint is that I believe we have a better lineup (offensively & defensively) with Marwan and Arraz in the lineup than Sano.If you disagree with me I can respect that.Players like Gibson & castro COULD be resigned by the Mets at a reasonable cost and sending out the contract of Diaz and the arb. eligible contract of Thor could certainly help.I think the Twins lineup is dangerous.I think a 3 man playoff rotation of Thor, Berrios and Odorizzi would be formidable and could stack up with an Astro staff of Verlander, Cole and whoever they acquire (and they WILL acquire somebody like Mad-Bum).Then Taylor Rogers and Edwin Diaz (57 saves last year--57 !!!) with Trevor May and Ryne Harper in the bullpen would match up well with the talented Yankee bullpen.I want a BOLD move.I don't want a #3 starter like Stroman and a sore elbow reliever like Giles.

Yes. A starter betetr than anyone in their rotation. Odorizzi seems to be back, but is absically still a good five inning pitcher. Anything beyond that is a bonus. Having he starter for at least one more season is also a plus. I don't see the Twins bringing back Odorizzi or Gibson. Unless they totally strike out in the free agent marketplace.

 

Pineda may be a return candidate, at a discount from his current price. And would be a noteworthy gamble as he would be totally recovered from surgery.

 

The Twins also need a #1 bullpen arm, a topflight closer. If they also get a rotation arm, then one of the guys in the rotation move to the pen, be it Perez (an additional lefty who can pitch thru a batting order) or perhaps even Gibson. The Twins have many potential weakness in the pen, from Magill to Morin to Duffey to Parker. Even Harper isn't a given. Be interesting to see how Littell and May end the season.Also be interesting to see what couple of arms would disappear if the Twins add arms. More than likely total removal from the 40-man!

 

 

To all the people thinking you can trade free agents to be for Thor you are all kidding yourselves.I could see possible of Sano in a deal, and Twins could do it and survive the season as he is not carrying the team at all, he is also still under control for a few years so Mets may think about him, but free agents to be for a non-contending team would only do it for money purposes.No way do Mets take on free agents to be in a thought it will make them more likely to sign them.