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Relevant magic numbers with tiebreakers accounted for

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:19 PM
After the games of 9/22:   TB over Min: 2 CWS over Min: 4 Oak over Min: 5 Min over Cle: 2 Min over NYY: 4

Fun With Numbers - 2020 Season

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I’m glad to see Ex-Twins in 2020 thread is back up and running. This is also one of my favorite threads over the last 5 years. The Twins...

Post Season Rotation

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:19 PM
Listened to Gleeman&Geek podcast. They agreed on Maeda, Berrios & Pineda as the 1st round rotation I'm fine with that. My questio...

Twins developed starting pitching history since Bert

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Using my Cards as an example: The only major miss of the Cards trading young developed starters since trading both Jerry Reuss and Steve...

Playoff tiebreaks

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With three teams fighting for the division title, it seems quite possible there will be a tie for the division winner this year in the AL...

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Setting Expectations For Byron Buxton's First Game

Posted by dwade , 14 June 2015 · 1,385 views

byron buxton twins prospects history
Setting Expectations For Byron Buxton's First Game As you may have heard other places on the inter-net and quite possibly on this very website, the Twins' top prospect, Byron Buxton, has joined the team in Texas and the assumption is that he'll make his debut on Sunday.

Understandably, there is a lot of excitement surrounding his arrival and not a mean amount of expectation-tempering from the other side as Twins fans try to figure out what it means to have a player of Buxton's caliber on the roster.

While Buxton wasn't Baseball America's top prospect in baseball this year, that prize went to the Cubs' Kris Bryant, he was their 2014 top prospect, which puts him in some pretty elite company, joining players like Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Joe Mauer, and Alex Rodriguez.

All of these players excited their team's fanbase upon their arrival and surely produced the same hand-wringing over what they were going to do for the team. So, here is what the last 20 years of Baseball America Top Prospects did in the very first major league game, along with the date of their debut (Pitcher stats have been omitted):

2015: Kris Bryant, April 17, 2015, 0-4, 3K

2014: Byron Buxton: Pending

2013: Jurickson Profar: September 2, 2012, 2-4, 2B, HR, R, RBI

2012: Bryce Harper: April 28, 2012, 1-3, 2B, RBI

2011: Bryce Harper: April 28, 2012, 1-3, 2B, RBI

2010: Jason Heyward: April 5, 2010, 2-5, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI,

2009: Matt Wieters: May 29, 2009, 0-4, K

2008: Jay Bruce: May 27, 2008, 3-3, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB

2007: Daisuke Matsuzaka

2006: Delmon Young: August 29, 2006, 2-3, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI

2005: Joe Mauer: April 5, 2004, 2-3, 2 R, 2 BB

2004: Joe Mauer: April 5, 2004, 2-3, 2 R, 2 BB

2003: Mark Teixeira: April 1, 2003, 0-3, BB, K

2002: Josh Beckett

2001: Josh Hamilton: April 2, 2007, 0-1 (1-3, HR, R, RBI, 2BB in full debut on April 10)

2000: Rick Ankiel (P)

1999: J.D. Drew: September 2, 1998, 0-2, K (0-3, R, 2K, BB in first start on Sept. 13)

1998: Ben Grieve: September 3, 1997, 3-4, 3 2B, 2 R, 5 RBI, BB

1997: Andruw Jones: August 15, 1996, 1-5, R, RBI, 2K

1996: Andruw Jones: August 15, 1996, 1-5, R, RBI, 2K

1995: Alex Rodriguez: July 8, 1994, 0-3

The good news for Buxton is that, unless he becomes the first top prospect in the last 20 years to earn a Golden Sombrero on his debut, he's unlikely to have a worse coming out party than Bryant did in April.

On the other end of the spectrum, he'll be chasing Ben Grieve and Jay Bruce for the best day, though Jurickson Profar isn't far behind in terms of productivity. If that isn't reason enough not to get too high or too low about what Buxton does in his first game, I'm not sure what is.

One way Buxton could set his name in the stars is if he steals a base; since 1990, no BA top prospect has successfully stolen a base on his debut.

No matter what he does, it's fairly clear that what happens when he does start has literally no effect on the rest of his career. Still, I don't think many Twins fans would say no to a duplicate of what Joe Mauer did back in 2004.