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Salary, Salary and Salary

Posted by Supfin99 , 11 February 2019 · 332 views

I just read the article on here about punting the 2019 season. I don’t understand this narrative and get so frustrated by it. Money is not a cure all when it comes to building a team. I say this knowing I wrote an article a month ago where I discussed my frustration that the Twins didn’t spend more in the mid 2000’s to augment the team. But the difference was then you had guys like Mauer, Moreau, Hunter, Cuddyer. Santana and Nathan in their prime and they were among the best at their positions in baseball. I am all for spending money if it’s done strategically. Right now the Twins don’t know what they have. They need to find out. That means taking a breath and see if Sano and Buxton have figured things out. Can Kepler take the next step everyone believes is there? Can Berrios fine tune and become an ace. Can Gibson and Rosario prove that last year is the normal career average for them? What other young guy can step up in the rotation and bullpen like Berrios and Taylor Rogers? What can Polanco do over a full season? Can Schoop bounce back? These are all questions that will decide if the Twins win the central in 2019. (Which I believe they will) if some or most of these things don’t happen signing Keuchel or Kimbrel will not matter.

I am all for spending the Pohlads money as they are one of the richest families in America. But I want it done strategically and not at he cost of giving someone else a chance. Spending the money this season when there are so many unanswered questions doesn’t seem to make sense. Also Keuchel seems like a repeat of past signings such as Nolasco and Santana. Santana is considered the best FA signing we have ever had and he had exactly 2 good years out of 4. Keuchel is probably better than those 2 but he has 4 straight years of declining peripherals and just turned 31. Is this the guy we want to be paying 5/100 or even 4/72 for? I want that spot in the rotation to go to a low risk high reward guy like Perez or even better to a young guy like Gonzalves, Thorpe, Romero, Stewart or Mejia. These guys need to be given a chance to see if they can be a valuable piece to the next great Twins team.

Let this season play out. See how the still young guys perform. Do some of these questions get answered yes? I really like our chances of that. The great thing about Sano and Buxton is we don’t even need them to be the MVP caliber players we thought they were going to be when they were dominating the minors. If Buck hits .225 with a .650 OPS, he still is a 5 WAR player due to his all world defense. Sano can be 80% of what he was as a rookie and still be very valuable. The strike outs are always going to be there but get back to showing some patience, having some semblance of a plan at the plate. This will lead to lots of walks and 30 plus homers. Like I said earlier everyone expects Kepler to have another level. His strikeout and walk percentages are great as his line drive rate and batted balls speed. Now we just need his actual counting stats to match his peripheral stats. If Odorizzi can pitch a little closer to his career averages the Twins will have 3 above average pitchers in the rotation with a wild card in Pineda. They will have plenty of options at Rochester to cover for injuries and disappointments. The lineup is already deeper than any I’ve seen us field in years.

If the year goes well and we get a few positive answers then next year is when you spend the money. Resign Gibson if he has another year like 2018. At least qualify him so you get the draft pick. Go out and offer Gerrit Cole 6/210 to lead your rotation. If Romero isn’t your stud closer go out and get one. Like I said I’m all for spending money. Just do it at the right time and place.

Quick side note, spending money is always the quick route most fans want to see done. It goes hand in hand with making trades to immediately improve the team even if it robs the future. I was looking back at one of my posts from last year regarding a Nick Nelson article about trading for Realmuto. I said at the time I thought it would be a huge mistake. The offer proposed was Kirilloff, Graterol and another top 10-15 prospect. Let’s say that 3rd prospect was say Ryan Jeffers because Miami wanted a catcher, yes I know it would show up as a PTBNL until he was able to be traded. Would anyone think that was a good trade for us now? Giving up our best pitching prospect, a top 15 prospect in all of baseball and another top 10 Twins prospect for 2 season of Realmuto. Would a catcher make us a favorite to win the WS this year? Or even to win the Central? No and very doubtful would be the answers. We would also be getting lambasted by the entire industry for making that trade. I’m not ripping on Nick, him and Seth are my 2 favorite writers on Twins Daily. I’m just saying it gets easy to go for the Get rich Quick scheme versus taking your time.

  • howieramone2 likes this



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theBOMisthebomb
Feb 11 2019 05:49 PM
From a fan perspective, we have been waiting for the better part of a decade to be relevant. From an analytical perspective, if you truly think the Twins will win the Central in 2019, why wait? People that advocate your strategy of wait and see what happens in 2019 sound like they are on the Pohlad payroll. Well, I hope you are right and Twins fans get to hang a banner or two in 3-5 years. That's a tough sell to the casual Twins fan, though. The people in my life that are casual Twins fans have zero interest in this club right now. No buzz.
    • Sconnie likes this

If the Twins in 2019 come up 3 wins short of winning the division and miss the wild card, but Buxton and Sano flop are you ready to give the FO a pass? Is it OK, because the FO didn't know what they had in Buxton and Sano?

 

It takes more than an entire 40 man roster to win. You can't wait for two or three players to click. 

I don't think I said that the entire season rests on comebacks from Buxton and Sano.  I believe I mentioned about 7 or 8 items that are crucial to the Twins winning the division this year.  But yes 2 of the most important are decent seasons from Buxton and Sano.  If Buxton and Sano repeat seasons from last year I think it will be very difficult for them to win.  To overcome that it would require huge seasons from most of the remaining question marks.  At some point don't we want to see what Romero, Gonsalves, Littell, Stewart, Thorpe, Reed, Vasquez, Moya, Mejia can do?  Is Keuchel really better than Thorpe or Mejia?  Maybe this year or possibly next.  But 4 years from now when Keuchel is 36 and we still owe him 18 mil?

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howieramone2
Feb 12 2019 04:36 PM

We need big years from the core of 4 plus Rosario and Polanco. No we don't need career years. I feel Buxton only needs to bat .240-.250 to be an All-Star. If Sano can stay healthy 30 homes runs is more than possible. 

 

Before last season, all of our writers except one or two predicted we would make the player-offs. Cleveland was less than impressive this off season. Absolutely no reason to wait.