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WARNE: Twins Unequivocally Did the Right Thing at the Trade Deadline

Posted by Brandon Warne , 08 November 2017 · 789 views

jaime garcia minnesota twins brandon kintzler
It’s not often that I allow someone in my mentions to get me so wound up that I devote an entire, stand-alone article to a single person, but here we are.

The tweet in question — feel free to click and read the mind-bending thread in all its glory — appears as follows:
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NOTE: This person has since blocked me for reasons that don’t entirely make sense. He has also deleted the tweets, so I have saved this screenshot to remember his weird rant, which also included alluding to the Twins not going after Shohei Otani because of how poorly ByungHo Park and Tsuyoshi Nishioka panned out. Bad takes all around!

It’s not often that baseball provides irrefutable evidence in a discussion. Nobody can rationally debate that the Houston Astros won the World Series or who won the Gold Glove awards which were handed out on Tuesday night. Those are set in stone.

But in debates, there can always be varying levels of certainty, different angles being pursued by those involved and a number of other situations at play. In this case, the general debate is that the Twins front office messed up at the trade deadline.

And quite frankly, there is no evidence to back that up.

None.

The back story to the debate centers around the Twins having the second-most available in their July 2 pool to sign international free agents. This looms especially large this offseason with Japanese phenom Shohei Otani petitioning to come over.

Part of the reason the Twins have that much money is that they received some back from the Washington Nationals in the Brandon Kintzler trade.

This is where that debate begins, as the party in question says the Twins “had no business trading legitimate major-league pitching at the deadline last year.”

The simplest — and possibly laziest — form of logical fallacy is revisionism. In other words, looking at a situation and how it plays out, then saying “Well I wouldn’t have done THAT” without offering anything in the way of a solution.

Even that isn’t in Mr. Papas’ favor. Why?

Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read this story in its entirety.

  • Craig Arko, Cory Engelhardt, NoCryingInBaseball and 2 others like this



NICE!

Good article. While I agree with Falvine's trade deadline moves, I think there was a legit argument to be made against buying and then selling. In hindsight though, seeing how it turned out, selling Kinsler and Garcia was absolutely the right move.

Side note, after reading the article title I couldn't help but think "The Twins unequivocally did the right thing by equivocating at the trade deadline."

    • Brandon Warne likes this
Excellent take! Of course since it agrees with my thoughts from the deadline I would say that. Whether you use foresight or hindsight there is no doubt that the trades made, or not made were correct. Clamorimg for more C-level pitching help had to have been based on emotion. There was only one predicator that the team would improve second half. Strength of schedule, or shall we say lack thereof. And that does not make you a legitimate contender. Unless, as in the past, reaching the second WC was the epitome of orginisational desire. Hopefully those days are behind us.

I was fully on board with selling at the deadline, especially with guys like Kintzler, who was a pending FA. Frankly, I wanted Falvine to do more, like move Gimenez and Grossman at the time as well.

 

I was fully on board with selling at the deadline, especially with guys like Kintzler, who was a pending FA. Frankly, I wanted Falvine to do more, like move Gimenez and Grossman at the time as well.

 

I agree.And there are others that share the sentiment that they should have moved several of the older vets (which many here object too) in favor of long term pieces that will help this team beyond 2018/2019.A couple of these trade chips are at positions of depth and a bit older (mid 30's). However, that didn't happen for the most part for better or for worse.

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howieramone2
Nov 09 2017 11:19 AM

I was disappointed for several days when they traded Garcia. I thought he was the right player, at the right time, for the right price. I thought they blinked, but rebounded very well, by bringing in 4 arms, 3 of whom are lefties. I'm still learning about the new regime.

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Deduno Abides
Nov 09 2017 04:52 PM
If they had kept Garcia, he wouldn’t have pitched against the Yankees, so it’s irrelevant to the outcome.

If they had kept Kintzler, he wouldn’t have come in before they were down 7-4 or 8-4, so it’s irrelevant to the outcome.

It they had kept both Garcia and Kintzler, the team likely would not have won many more games, so they most likely would have still been the visiting team at Yankee Stadium in the wild card game, so it’s irrelevant to the outcome.

The only player traded at the deadline who may have helped win the wild card game is Verlander, assuming the Tigers would have accepted a lesser package from the Twins and Verlander would have agreed to a trade to the Twins, both of which are doubtful. It also assumes that he would have pitched for the Twins exactly as he did for the Astros, which was probably the top 1% of his possible performances and would require a lot of magic thinking to be confident he would have pitched similarly for the Twins. But that’s not even the argument.

As you said, Falvey and Levine can’t operate within that realm.
    • Platoon likes this
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Major Leauge Ready
Nov 10 2017 08:40 AM

We just need to keep in mind the word from which fan is derived.We should not expect that a certain percentage of fans are not going to exhibit cold rational thinking.  

 

Along with a few other posters, I posted the reported odds of the Twins making the playoffs shortly after the deadline.Most people have played a little poker in their life. You just don't keep betting on a very low probability hand.Yet, a few people insisted the Twins should have bet on winning even when presented with those odds. I would not be too concerned that you can't make everyone understand the rationale of the FO.  

    • Dman likes this
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diehardtwinsfan
Nov 10 2017 09:24 AM

the trade was the right call. Garcia and Kintzler wouldn't have moved the WC game to MN, much less made up the bazillion games we needed to catch Cleveland. They wouldn't have helped in the WC game either. Right choice all around. I can say that in hindsight, just as much as I did when they traded them.

It’s rather...illogical, since you claim to argue from logic...to state there can be varying levels of certainty in a debate, but then dismiss another’s claim because there’s “no evidence” for that position. And then spend paragraphs dismissing or refuting the very evidence you claim isn’t there. Illogical to claim you can’t use results to argue process, then spend paragraphs showing how trading Kintzler didn’t have any actual effect on results. Illogical to make claims about Otani and international FA money...which weren’t made at the time of the trade. And also haven’t proven to be worth a penny yet, BTW. The Twins were in contention for a postseason spot for EVERY single day of the 2017 season. Every. Single. Day. Including around the deadline. And speaking of which....Fangraphs’ playoff odds? As a logical argument point?? Really??? Those numbers are concocted out of thin air. They’re based on nothing. They are virtually meaningless. They are a guess, just like your guess, mine, and the guy you’re dismissing’s guess. They HAD NO business trading away pitching at the deadline. None. In fact, They should have added pitching. They were a contending team in need of pitching. Still are, BTW. That’s every bit as logical as your position...and my opinion (held at the time) is the one borne out by events. Not yours. To argue otherwise is, well, it’s illogical.
    • gunnarthor likes this

The issue of selling at the deadline rides on one question - were the Twins contenders for the playoffs this year? The answer was yes. The new, smart FO didn't know that. The trades themselves look ok enough but it's not like we received anything overly great back. So we punted on a winnable season and that was only salvaged by the players who won despite the lack of resources from the FO. 

 

I don't know much about social media but it seems quite small to attack the tweeter in question as much as you did. Perhaps there is more to it than what you published on TD but his tweet wasn't mind bending.

    • USAFChief likes this
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Brandon Warne
Nov 13 2017 08:12 PM

 

The issue of selling at the deadline rides on one question - were the Twins contenders for the playoffs this year? The answer was yes. The new, smart FO didn't know that. The trades themselves look ok enough but it's not like we received anything overly great back. So we punted on a winnable season and that was only salvaged by the players who won despite the lack of resources from the FO. 

 

I don't know much about social media but it seems quite small to attack the tweeter in question as much as you did. Perhaps there is more to it than what you published on TD but his tweet wasn't mind bending.

 

He deleted all of it and blocked everyone involved. That part seems to have stemmed from a racist tweet about not signing Otani. 

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Brandon Warne
Nov 13 2017 08:13 PM

 

It’s rather...illogical, since you claim to argue from logic...to state there can be varying levels of certainty in a debate, but then dismiss another’s claim because there’s “no evidence” for that position. And then spend paragraphs dismissing or refuting the very evidence you claim isn’t there. Illogical to claim you can’t use results to argue process, then spend paragraphs showing how trading Kintzler didn’t have any actual effect on results. Illogical to make claims about Otani and international FA money...which weren’t made at the time of the trade. And also haven’t proven to be worth a penny yet, BTW. The Twins were in contention for a postseason spot for EVERY single day of the 2017 season. Every. Single. Day. Including around the deadline. And speaking of which....Fangraphs’ playoff odds? As a logical argument point?? Really??? Those numbers are concocted out of thin air. They’re based on nothing. They are virtually meaningless. They are a guess, just like your guess, mine, and the guy you’re dismissing’s guess. They HAD NO business trading away pitching at the deadline. None. In fact, They should have added pitching. They were a contending team in need of pitching. Still are, BTW. That’s every bit as logical as your position...and my opinion (held at the time) is the one borne out by events. Not yours. To argue otherwise is, well, it’s illogical.

 

They were four games under .500 and had to play at a nearly 100-win pace to get to the postseason. Full stop.