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Debunking Your Favorite Logical Fallacies Regarding the Twins at the Trade Deadline

Posted by Brandon Warne , 04 August 2018 · 1,510 views

minnesota twins eduardo escobar brian dozier
This is just part of the full story, which can be read at Zone Coverage here.

In case you've been under a rock over the past four days, you've no doubt seen the widespread reaction to how the Minnesota Twins handled the trade deadline.

It hasn't been great!

But most of it isn't rooted in facts or solid rationale. And I get it; fans are fired up because they get to know these players and then one day they're gone. I don't want people to lose sight of this even though I don't watch the Twins through the lens of a fan anymore.

All I'm really saying is that if people want to voice their opinions loudly where they're open to being consumed by others, they should be rooted in facts, you know?

But instead of replying to every single Facebook commenter lamenting the current ownership under "Carl" Pohlad (yeesh) or the fact that Brian Dozier was the only reason they bought tickets and never will again, I thought I'd just try to debunk as many of them in one fell swoop so that when you're caught between a rock and a hard place with one of your relatives ranting about the "cheap" Twins, you can share this link with them and we can both make this world a better place.



So this is really the foundation of it all. The Twins moved Dozier because he's a free agent at the end of the year, and at the time they traded him, they had less than a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs according to industry sites Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight.

The long and short of it is this: The Twins did right by Dozier in letting him go play in a pennant race, and did right by themselves by opening up some spots for guys to see a little more playing time down the stretch.

The same thing is true of Escobar, who is having a career year and no doubt wants to see what the free market has to offer before deciding where he'll sign.

When push comes to shove, these guys were going to be free agents anyway, and if they find their way back to Minnesota in the offseason, it was going to happen anyway.

  • tvagle likes this



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NASCAR Steve
Aug 04 2018 07:58 PM
I can understand being mad about the trades I was too and dozier and Escobar were some of my favorite players and I was starting to like duke a lot too and lyns bulldog mentality .. and I'm not sold on our current FO .. nor was I when the twins had terry ryan the second time .. but it's definitely not gunna make stop watching the twins .. it's like the players we currently have it probably suck too but you got keep playing.. hopefully will see dozier and Escobar back in twins uniform weather it's sooner or later.. there have been a lot twins players that have comeback like for example torii hunter.. Go Twins!
    • Hosken Bombo Disco likes this
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Aug 04 2018 09:02 PM
Next time maybe tease your article with a better excerpt?

A person on Twitter either knowingly or unknowingly called the owner of the Twins "Carl." Therefore, another person on Twitter decided it's no use explaining to people how dumb they are?

The long and short of it is this: The Twins did right by Dozier in letting him go play in a pennant race, and did right by themselves by opening up some spots for guys to see a little more playing time down the stretch.

Who are the infielders the Twins are looking at since Dozier and Escobar were traded?

What the sell crowd refuses to consider is the value of winning, goodwill, all those intangibles which are not worth getting into here.

The Twins have a four game series with Cleveland coming up. They should have waited to sell at least until that time.
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Aug 04 2018 11:29 PM
So, I'll play:

"That the same front office who botched the previous offseason is the same front office to trust in this next offseason."

Thoughts?
    • USAFChief and LaBombo like this
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strumdatjaguar
Aug 05 2018 07:36 AM

I was in line for a brat the day after the Dozier trade.A 70-ish year old guy behind was lamenting how "cheap" the Twins were in letting Dozier and Escobar go.I said the Twins did not skimp on salaries this year and will sign free agents next year, possibly including Escobar.I tried to explain the expiring contracts, free agency, rising middle infield stars coming up in minors, how players decline after age 31, and that the Twins got something in return rather than the "big nothing" if they had held on and lost the players in free agency.The guy just looked at me obliviously, secure in the knowledge that he had it figured out correctly. The brat was good though. 

    • birdwatcher, Oldgoat_MN, tarheeltwinsfan and 3 others like this
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strumdatjaguar
Aug 05 2018 07:43 AM

 

So, I'll play:

"That the same front office who botched the previous offseason is the same front office to trust in this next offseason."

Thoughts?

So, the FO was supposed to know the following: that Lance Lynn would have the worst year of the last 5, and that Logan Morrison would regress this far from a guy who hit 38 HRs last year, Nevertheless, both have one year contracts and will not constrain the Twins next season. They traded very little for Odorizzi, who is a legit back of the rotation maybe middle of rotation guy under contract for next year.Fernando Rodney has been very good and the Twins retain an option for next year.The best thing the Twins FO did last year was NOT to sign Yu Darvish. Darvish is now a big weight hanging around the Cubs' neck for the next five years!   

    • Danchat, slash129, David HK and 2 others like this
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lukeduke1980
Aug 05 2018 08:40 AM
Right or wrong,the Twins made their 'cheap' decision on not extending Dozier last winter. I think that affected his performance this year. If that's remotely true, then it's a self fulfilling prophecy. The common fan's argument should be we develop Dozier, Escobar etc and don't keep them. Convenient now for owners that 30 year old players are a terrible investment. The illusion is that minor leagues are a pipeline of guaranteed talent that makes an 87 Twins inevitable. Buxton should be a daily reminder that the strategy is flawed and requires luck. I'm glad they at least kept Gibson, for now.
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Aug 05 2018 11:25 AM

So, the FO was supposed to know the following: that Lance Lynn would have the worst year of the last 5, and that Logan Morrison would regress this far from a guy who hit 38 HRs last year

I lean toward yes, they should have stayed away. Twenty-nine other teams did.

The front office did some things right, but as for the big things, they got most of them wrong. Posters here just are not acknowledging that. Just my opinion, I think. Sometimes I don't know what team other people are looking at.
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Aug 05 2018 11:30 AM

I was in line for a brat the day after the Dozier trade.A 70-ish year old guy behind was lamenting how "cheap" the Twins were in letting Dozier and Escobar go.I said the Twins did not skimp on salaries this year and will sign free agents next year, possibly including Escobar.I tried to explain the expiring contracts, free agency, rising middle infield stars coming up in minors, how players decline after age 31, and that the Twins got something in return rather than the "big nothing" if they had held on and lost the players in free agency.The guy just looked at me obliviously, secure in the knowledge that he had it figured out correctly. The brat was good though.

Pohlad's reputation for cheapness is well earned!

And in fact the front office did trade away Lynn and Hughes, two of their three top paid pitchers, and Dozier, highest paid position player after Mauer. The Forsythe salary swap is getting in the weeds and I wouldn't expect a typical fan to take in and retain information like that. I would guess most typical fans just want to win and have fun, root for their favorite players, and any chance of that continuing in 2018 was brought to an abrupt halt at the trade deadline.
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FargoFanMan
Aug 05 2018 12:35 PM
Why is this an article? Fact is you can never begin to explain how baseball or any other major sport for that matter works to the average fan. These people still think it’s 1991 or 1987 and star players play for a million dollars and take the hometown discount every time. I have family that have season tickets. Watch every game when not there. Go to Twinsfest every year. Have everything in the world signed by Joe Mauer and Kirby Pucket. I had to explain to them who Berrios and Buxton were. I try to explain prospects, and all the intricacies of how it works and watch their eyes glaze over. The same people who love Joe Mauer but don’t think he should have got the big contract. Not understanding that when he signed that contract that was the market for a star catcher in his prime. If not more.Yet they still expected him to stay in Minnesota forever yet only play for like a million a year. Impossible. Trying to cater to the average fan is like trying to explain capitalism to a socialist.
    • Danchat, twinssporto, gagu and 2 others like this

 


The Twins have a four game series with Cleveland coming up. They should have waited to sell at least until that time.

 

The MLB non-waiver trade deadline was July 31st at 4:00pm. You can't just wait until mid-August and trade a guy whenever you want, unfortunately.

    • gagu likes this
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Brandon Warne
Aug 05 2018 04:51 PM

 

Why is this an article?

 

Thanks for the support!

    • Craig Arko, Hosken Bombo Disco and tarheeltwinsfan like this
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terrydactyls1947
Aug 06 2018 03:00 PM

Right or wrong,the Twins made their 'cheap' decision on not extending Dozier last winter.


Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a MLB contract require both sides to be in agreement? I believe that I read that Dozier wanted to test the free agency market because he felt he would get a bigger contract. If Dozier didn't want to sign, then there wasn't anything they could do about it. And the way 2018 went for Dozier, I'm happy the Twins were able to get something back from the Dodgers.

 

Right or wrong,the Twins made their 'cheap' decision on not extending Dozier last winter. I think that affected his performance this year. If that's remotely true, then it's a self fulfilling prophecy. The common fan's argument should be we develop Dozier, Escobar etc and don't keep them. Convenient now for owners that 30 year old players are a terrible investment. The illusion is that minor leagues are a pipeline of guaranteed talent that makes an 87 Twins inevitable. Buxton should be a daily reminder that the strategy is flawed and requires luck. I'm glad they at least kept Gibson, for now.

Wait, so if the Twins gave Dozier an extension you think he'd play better this season? I highly doubt that.

    • nclahammer likes this

 

So, the FO was supposed to know the following: that Lance Lynn would have the worst year of the last 5, and that Logan Morrison would regress this far from a guy who hit 38 HRs last year, Nevertheless, both have one year contracts and will not constrain the Twins next season. They traded very little for Odorizzi, who is a legit back of the rotation maybe middle of rotation guy under contract for next year.Fernando Rodney has been very good and the Twins retain an option for next year.The best thing the Twins FO did last year was NOT to sign Yu Darvish. Darvish is now a big weight hanging around the Cubs' neck for the next five years!   

I agree with your approach, but it's still on the FO that their acquisitions mostly failed. They made smart moves and they didn't work - at least they didn't sign Darvish or give Cobb a 4 year deal - instead, we have plenty of cap and none paid to Morrison or Lynn. They need to do better next year in free agency but I think they have the right idea. IMO it might be a "players who come to the Twins stink and play better for other teams" problem, but that's just a theory of mine.

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tarheeltwinsfan
Aug 08 2018 07:42 AM

 

Why is this an article? Fact is you can never begin to explain how baseball or any other major sport for that matter works to the average fan.  

I really do not think of TD contributors as "average fans". It is my not so humble opinion that TD contributors are extremely knowledgeable fans, who are guided by thoughtful editors and moderators who know more about the Twins than most fans and sportswriters I really would not be surprised to discover that the FO monitors TD contributions...especially well thought-out comments by tarheeltwinsfan. 

    • nclahammer likes this

I didn't like all the moves, but they're made now, and we'll see what develops from the minor-league haul. At least a couple of them are very encouraging, but years away.

 

I also like the fact there's more room to add some FA's next season, but---

 

(**OK, I admit, I'm beating a drum here that some may be tired of hearing--)

 

I can't imagine a quality FA looking at how the ballclub has been constructed and (especially) managed, and want to be in that same dugout. I am wholly convinced they need to make a change in that dugout, and the sooner the better. Then, a fresh start all around.

The flip side, and I'll play devil's advocate here, is that TARGET FIELD and the revenue stream it created was supposed to mean the Twin's COULD keep their own free agents, rather than letting them continuously walk to greener pastures (remembering the off-season exodus of Hunter and Cuddyer and Nathan as well as needing to trade off Morneau and Liriano because we couldn't sign them, or didn't want to resign them. 

 

Even the memories of the early trade of Santana (shades of a nicer Knoblauch) because they Twins couldn't offer him $120 or so million (only $110...and wasn't Hunter maxed out by the Twins at $75 instead of the $90 he got from California?).

 

Yes, a new stadium was meant to KEEP your own free agents.

 

Hey, MAYBE Mauer will be back! (At a discount).

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Brandon Warne
Aug 14 2018 10:07 PM

 

The flip side, and I'll play devil's advocate here, is that TARGET FIELD and the revenue stream it created was supposed to mean the Twin's COULD keep their own free agents, rather than letting them continuously walk to greener pastures (remembering the off-season exodus of Hunter and Cuddyer and Nathan as well as needing to trade off Morneau and Liriano because we couldn't sign them, or didn't want to resign them. 

 

Even the memories of the early trade of Santana (shades of a nicer Knoblauch) because they Twins couldn't offer him $120 or so million (only $110...and wasn't Hunter maxed out by the Twins at $75 instead of the $90 he got from California?).

 

Yes, a new stadium was meant to KEEP your own free agents.

 

Hey, MAYBE Mauer will be back! (At a discount).

 

Santana wasn't nearly the pitcher with the Mets he was with the Twins, and if you thought Torii was going to play at a high level into his late-30s, you'd have probably been alone. 

 

And don't be so sure they wanted to *keep* Dozier in the first place. Why did they try to trade him two years ago, if so?