Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

It's Never Too Early for Magic Number

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:36 AM
Just a little Spreadsheet fun for those interested in knowing how many wins/losses the Twins need to clinch a playoff spot  ...

Article: MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:19 PM
One moment it looked like the Twins were going to blow a quality start from Ervin Santana, the next moment they were blowing out the Tige...

Game Thread: Twins @ Tigers 9-23 5:10 PM CT

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:58 PM
  ANNND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Re-write edition! I am your host for the next 2 days, Vanimal. How NEAT was that ga...

Walt's daily odds

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:40 PM
Here is daily odds for Twins make playoff levels. Is base from win percent and binomial function.   Win Second Wall Car: 0.62 Win To...

Happiest surprise for you this season?

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 10:49 PM
Since there isn't a lot going on in the minor leagues right this second, I figured I'd ask what your favorite surprise was this season fo...

Photo

Gibson Keeping Hitters Off Balance With Offspeed

Posted by Ted Schwerzler , 12 September 2017 · 359 views

Over the course of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, Kyle Gibson has been demoted to Triple-A, and experienced multiple periods of struggle at the big league level. Right now however, in the midst of a playoff race, he's been among the Twins most consistent starters. Diving deeper into the change, it doesn't appear anything more than a minor tweak was made. The results suggest that it may have made all of the difference.

Forever, Gibson has been noted as a ground ball pitcher. Despite owning just a 50% ground ball rate for much of the year, Gibson is a sinkerballer that has always had more talk of his wormburners than action. That began to change over the course of his last eight starts though, and since July 22nd, the Twins have ran him out every fifth day feeling pretty good.

Prior to July 22, Gibson had made 17 starts for the Twins. He owned a 6.29 ERA and was allowing a .920 OPS against. In that timespan, he'd posted just three quality starts, and was in general, being hit around the yard. On the 356 balls put in play, 25 of them (or 7%) were barreled. Roughly one in five fly balls left the yard, and his 16 homers allowed only helped to inflate already egregious numbers.

Since that point, the Twins former top prospect has made eight starts to the tune of a 3.19 ERA. Allowing just a .682 OPS against, Gibson has tallied four straight quality starts, and hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of those outings. When allowing contact, with 184 balls in play, he's given up just four barrels (2%). To get that kind of turnaround, essentially halving the numbers, there has to be a monumental shift right? Well, the answer is, not so much.

Looking at Gibson's repertoire before and after July 22nd, not a whole lot has changed. He's still a sinkerballer first, and then turns to his two offspeed offerings. Throwing both a slider and changeup, it's on the heels of those pitches that opposing hitters are kept off balance. What's been integral for Gibson however, is a slight jump in usage for each.

Early in the season, Gibson was throwing his fastball just under 60% of the time, while dishing up sliders about 16% and changeups right around 15%. Fast forward to today, and his last eight starts have him going with the fastball 55% of the time (at a slightly higher velocity), the slider almost 19%, and the changeup 17% of the time. In cutting out some of his fastball usage (and curveball as well), he's been able to throw offspeed pitches forcing batters to stay back.

The results have translated to a hard hit rate down to 32% from 38% earlier in the year, but more importantly, a HR/FB rate cut from 20% to 9.4%. Gibson is generating ground balls 2% more often (53.1%), as well as giving up fly balls 5% less often. While keeping the ball in the yard, and giving his defense an opportunity, he's found success in utilizing one of the Twins greatest assets.

Now, nothing says the Gibson has found a sure fire path to rest on his laurels. Opposing hitters have a BABIP that's only six points lower (.331) during this good stretch. That number still falls within a normal realm across the big leagues, and in general, leaves plenty of room for success to be had. For a guy that has just a 9% SwStr rate as well as a 15.8% strikeout rate, he's always going to need a push for balls in play that resemble routine outs. As the pitch mix continues to morph though, it seems the current structure is something that can work.

Pitching coach Neil Allen is a big believer in the changeup, and there could have been some work done in getting Gibson to use it more often. The 17% usage rate would be the best single season mark since 2015, when he offered the pitch a career high 19.7% of the time. Maybe not so coincidentally, the Twins hurler relied heavily on his changeup and slider that season, en route to a career low 3.84 ERA.

Now five years into his big league career, and 29 years old, Twins fans are probably through with hoping Gibson has found it. All along though, it's seemed like if he could just hone this or that small thing in, effectiveness was sure to follow. As Minnesota eyes the Postseason, a steadying rotation presence was needed, and Gibson has definitely provided that. Only time will tell how effective the current tweaks are, but right now, all parties have to feel very encouraged.

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz




Photo
diehardtwinsfan
Sep 12 2017 11:30 AM

the question for me is whether he stays or goes. If Gibby stays, then I don't see the Twins going out and getting another pitcher. Personally, I'm not comfortable with that.

    • Platoon likes this
Photo
Ted Schwerzler
Sep 12 2017 11:32 AM

 

the question for me is whether he stays or goes. If Gibby stays, then I don't see the Twins going out and getting another pitcher. Personally, I'm not comfortable with that.

 

Gibson could play in long relief as well.

 

Santana, Berrios, Mejia, and Gibson still leave an opening as well.

It's not unheard of for a tall lanky power pitcher to finally get his mechanics in control later in a career and settle in. It's somewhat different for a PTC pitcher to do so. That said, it seems the biggest thing is his control is better in this streak. He is hitting the outside corner nicely. If ones belief that Gibsons value is in long relief, then it would be best to package him and move him. Long relief pitchers are simply failed starters eating decided innings. (Barring injuries) The Twins already have a plethora of those. If Gibson has truly turned the corner, good for him. But I would make next years plans with the idea he had not, and choose to be pleasantly amazed, than yet again horribly disappointed.