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Twins Could Trade for a Former Free Agent Target

Posted by Ted Schwerzler , 09 December 2019 · 2,367 views

minnesota twins chicago cubs yu darvish hyun-jin ryu madison bumgarner
After bringing back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda the Minnesota Twins should be turning their focus solely to the top of their rotation. Madison Bumgarner is the presumed name, but Jon Heyman recently reported that former Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu could be the target. What if Minnesota wanted to go a different route entirely?

There’s no denying that Bumgarner and Ryu are the best (see: only) arms left in the second tier of available starters. Bumgarner has been dissected plenty, and Ryu is essentially the flip side of what he brings to the table. Injury concerns are abundant and could be an immediate issue. He won’t command the same length in a contract, but that may not matter if you get burned on the front end. Ryu is a really nice arm, but there’s plenty of risk regarding how much time he’ll miss.

For a while I’ve contended the Twins plan this winter should be to acquire a top-tier arm through free agency while also dealing for an option with some nice team control. What if it they decided to deal for the top-tier arm as well, and spend by taking on someone else’s contract?

Enter Yu Darvish.

Minnesota came up a year short in signing Darvish before he eventually landed a six-year deal with the Chicago Cubs. Thad Levine has in-depth knowledge of the arm having worked in the front office that originally signed him in Texas, and the parallels with Ryu run pretty deep.

Chicago’s starter is roughly six months older than Ryu. He could be had on a four-year, $81 million contract today assuming the Cubs take on no salary. Although Ryu may not get four years, he’ll probably wind up somewhere between the $60-75 million range. Darvish was injury and bad a season ago, and then started slow in 2019. Across his final 20 starts last year he allowed just a .629 OPS and had a 162/18 K/BB ratio.

When looking at Darvish and Ryu it comes down to what path you prefer (and if Chicago is truly motivated to move him). Ryu costs dollars and brings a strong amount of command while lacking the strikeouts. Darvish would require prospect capital, involves a similar level of injury risk, but brings arguably the best strikeout numbers Minnesota would have ever employed.

If you’re hoarding prospects, and there’s reason to suggest that the Twins should be at least until the deadline this season, then spending money on Ryu or Bumgarner should be the obvious decision. If Darvish is seen as the superior option to Ryu, then engaging the Cubs in meaningful discussion is absolutely a conversation worth having.

We’re at the point in roster construction where big moves are going to involve a certain level of skepticism. Knowing that there’s nothing certain about any of the options involved, a level of belief will be required with any asset acquired. I’m not sure which path the Twins will choose, and I don’t know what the right one is. I am glad we’re at the crossroads where it becomes a necessity, and these are the real discussions that we’re having.

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

  • Oldgoat_MN, alphanumeric, tarheeltwinsfan and 1 other like this



I like the idea of engaging in discussion. Neither Ryu or Darvish are sure fire slam dunks but conversely, both could be. It is best to have a hand in multiple possibilities rather than running out of chairs when the music stops.

    • tarheeltwinsfan likes this
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Ted Schwerzler
Dec 09 2019 02:15 PM

 

I like the idea of engaging in discussion. Neither Ryu or Darvish are sure fire slam dunks but conversely, both could be. It is best to have a hand in multiple possibilities rather than running out of chairs when the music stops.

Right, I'm certainly more interested in MadBum. I like Ryu if the Twins are comfortable in his medicals. If they'd prefer to move prospects, then Darvish makes some sense. Make sure you know where to turn because ending up empty handed can't become reality.

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lukeduke1980
Dec 09 2019 03:52 PM

I had this same idea about Darvish after seeing some speculation about Boston moving Price.The amount of money you are willing to take on likely dictates what you have to give up in terms of prospects.  

The Cubs still want something in return. Question is do they want immediate (et's say Rosario). Or all future, which is a BIG gamble on their part. But they do get money to re-spend.

Darvish came back very strong. His WHIP and OPS allowed were both better than Berrios managed in July, August and September.

 

It also helps that the Cubs have covered $45M of his $126M contract. Any really good pitcher is going to be expensive and I like the idea of the Twins looking at every opportunity.

 

If indeed the Cubs are trying to shed payroll (as suggested in MLBTR), this could be a great get for the Twins, depending on who they had to give up, of course.

 

 

    • alphanumeric, labcrazy and Strato Guy like this

You originally didn’t want to go the extra year, now wanna get in on it after 2 prime years you would have originally would have wanted are gone?  I like Darvish and like the idea of trading for him but not sure it’s worth paying prospects and big $ for him.  Unless you can get away with cubs dumping salary and you give up some low level C type prospects.

I'd do it for the right return price. If Darvish was a Free Agent, he'd likely be seeking 5/100 right now.