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Making a Move for MadBum

Posted by Ted Schwerzler , 15 July 2019 · 917 views

minnesota twins madison bumgarner san francisco giants
The Minnesota Twins are one of the most well positioned franchises in baseball to acquire serious assets this month. Needing help on the mound, the optimal plan would be in acquiring two relievers and a starter. Without knowing how it will shake out, we do know that Derek Falvey's club has been connected to the San Francisco Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Should a deal be struck, what may that look like?

Given the Giants current standing, and free agency looming for the pair, both Bumgarner and Will Smith have been the focus of numerous trade discussions. Any selling organization would almost certainly prefer packages for players that part out one asset at a time. While Minnesota could use both Smith and Bumgarner we can separate the two of them for the sake of this exercise.

In his latest piece for The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal noted that Giants GM Farhan Zaidi prefers to get prospects closer to the majors. Not wanting lottery tickets and looking for an expedited rebuild, that's certainly an understandable plan. Prior to making any move, Minnesota must be convinced of what they'd be acquiring.

Bumgarner's name is one inviting all of the stories. He's a former World Series hero and has been included in the ace discussion over the course of his career. Right now he's a pitcher with a 3.86 ERA backed by FIP and xFIP numbers that suggest the mark is true. His velocity is in a similar place to what it's always been and despite major injuries in recent years, consistency has been relatively reliable.

There's no reason to think that any big league organization is trading for a player solely based on name recognition or pedigree. Falvey won't be lulled into the belief that this is the same guy who picked up a World Series MVP nod in 2014. If the scouting process reveals the soon-to-be 30-year-old has enough ability to bolster the rotation then a merit based acquisition would make plenty of sense.

Now we get to the cost of a deal. This is a rental Minnesota would be taking on in hopes of a deeper Postseason performance yet this season. He's not going to slot in ahead of staff ace Jose Berrios and any belief that Bumgarner would cost the Twins one of their top three prospects seems absurd. Excluding Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brusdar Graterol from this deal gives us a clearer layout of what assets to look for.

Factoring in the Giants desire for players at the upper levels of the organization we can target players currently sitting at Double or Triple-A in the Minnesota system. Having such a deep and strong farm system the Twins can part out pieces and still be well set up for the future.

Minnesota Twins acquire SP Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco Giants acquire OF Brent Rooker, INF Nick Gordon, and RHP Sean Poppen.

With this return the Giants are getting a bit of everything. Rooker has a legit bat and would be in the big leagues for a significant amount of organizations right now. He plays on the corners, and there's questions about whether a move to first could happen with his current footwork. Swing and miss tendencies have slowed over the season with Triple-A Rochester and the power should play fine in any park. The Giants would be smart to ask for Trevor Larnach here, but he's further off and Minnesota should want to protect the upside there if they can.

Former first round pick Nick Gordon has regained some of his promise. No longer a top 100 name, he is posting a .788 OPS during his second trip through the International League. Gordon isn't likely ever going to hit for power, but he's got a .291 average across 55 games at Rochester this season and is doing that with a serviceable .335 OBP. Speed is one of his best assets, and while he's not brother Dee, Nick can turn it on around the bases. You'd like to see a more even K/BB ratio, and he's more 2B than SS at this point, but there's a 23-year-old regular here.

Poppen fits the mold of a solid trade candidate. He's 25 and at Triple-A for Minnesota, but there's more than a few arms slotted ahead of him for long term consideration. He had a mediocre start to the year at Double-A but has turned it on big time with Rochester. Posting a 10.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 49 innings at Triple-A this season, his 2.39 ERA is a career best. Sitting mid-90's with his fastball, this is a guy that can bolster the back end of a rotation and gets another boost pitching on the junior circuit.

Obviously the names and talent included in this deal shifts if Will Smith is indeed paired with Bumgarner, but this seems like a decent framework to begin the process with. Over the coming weeks we'll find out what comes to fruition, but the certainty of a move for Minnesota seems imminent.

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

  • SF Twins Fan likes this



If you can throw in Smith and we add one more mid to low level prospect I am all in.Think it is a bit of steep for a rental player that may more so be on name you are paying for.I am a fan of getting mad bum though because he is prove playoff tested, but he has some attitude issues that may not mesh well with the team, and bad attitudes can blow up teams.  

Yeah, Rooker + Gordon should be pretty close to getting you both Bumgarner AND Smith already because of them being rentals.

 

As much as the Giants want to get the best they can for these guys, the fact of the matter is nobody pays these prices for rentals.

    • Ted Schwerzler and SF Twins Fan like this
Gorden and Rooker for both Madbum and Smith and some cash seem about right. Probably a little high honestly. Both those players should be big Leaguers. And 6 years of low cost production from both is alot to give for Half a season from 2 players. I would rather send more to Toronto for Giles and their starter. But we do have lots of prospects to choose from. Maybe instead of Gordon we could trade Gonsalves....
    • Steve Lein and Ted Schwerzler like this
Also note we will have an opening at 2B so having Gordon to compete with Arreaz makes sense.
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Ted Schwerzler
Jul 15 2019 07:10 PM

 

Yeah, Rooker + Gordon should be pretty close to getting you both Bumgarner AND Smith already because of them being rentals.

 

As much as the Giants want to get the best they can for these guys, the fact of the matter is nobody pays these prices for rentals.

I thought, while in the middle of putting this together, that I may have went a bit over the top. I think the return for Bumgarner and Smith will be less than what many want to expect based on their name recognition. I'm very much pro Stroman, but if the return is modest for MadBum, by all means go that direction.