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1 XBH per 10 AB

Posted by Brandon , 05 July 2018 · 431 views

What exactly is this and what does it mean? Well This is an over simplistic formula I use when looking at a power hitters performance. You are basically looking to see if the total number of extra base hits = a .100 batting average. You don’t even have to do the full math just know if it’s going to be more or less or on par, making it real easy to calculate. And its more fun right now then examining the Twins season this year!
I realize there are better stats like slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ but if I want to take a quick look without doing a lot of analyzing I can always do a quick glance at how many extra base hits does the power hitter have vs every 10 At Bats on the season. I noticed that an average power hitter will typically have 1 extra base hit for every 10 At Bats on the season meaning if the player has 300 At Bats this season they have 30 extra base hits they are an average power hitter. If a power hitter has fewer than 1 per 10 AB then the power is slumping so to speak, regardless of whether or not the player is hitting for average. The more extra base hits per 10 AB over 1 the better the power is showing this year.
Let’s look at a few examples for fun:
This year on our Twins team we have Escobar who has 49 extra base hits in 303 At Bats which is a crazy high ratio that’s 1 for every 6 At Bats or 50% more than an average power hitter or 2010 Justin Morneau before concussion territory see example further down this article.
Rosario has 43 XBH in 328 AB for about 1 per 7.6 AB still 31% better than average ratio which is great.
Kepler seems to be slumping in average, but he has 28 XBH in 283 At Bats which is average and why we are still holding out hope that he can get his average up and be a solid not great hitter.
Dozier has 30 XBH in 322 AB. So, he is only slumping a little from average power production especially after losing that home run yesterday, but a lot from last year when he went 68 in 617 At Bats or the year before when he had 82 in 615 AB. Dozier is still flashing some power so if he goes on a nice little extra base binge of say 7 or 8 extra base hits in his next 45-50 AB he would be back to normal and probably looking like a little better trade chip.
Morrison is at 21 XBH in 243 AB. This is why his production has been frustrating, because the power is below average as well as his average. If he had say 30 XBH and a .200 average, you would feel better about his production and feel like it’s a matter of time till his average come up some. But he is also slumping in the power department as well.
This season Grossman is at 15 XBH in 212 AB which is way below acceptable for someone not hitting for average and getting on base at a high rate. 2 years ago he hit 31 XBH in 332 AB which is average power hitter with a high on base average and a big part of why he was kept around. Last year he went down a little 32 XBH in 382 AB and with a .360 on base average this is good production out of a back up player. But this season he is slumping in both on base and power and will not likely be back after this season.
If you want to rehash bad memories you can go back and see that David Ortiz hit 53 XBH in 412 AB the season before we released him and he went to the Redsox….
We can also look at a few careers: Torii Hunter had 890 XBH in 8857 career AB. That is a career average power hitter.
Justin Morneau had 619 XBH in 5699 AB or if you want to look at before his concussion in 2010. He was at 410 XBH in 3485 AB and had 44 XBH in 296 AB in his 2010 season which is around 1.5 XBH per 10 AB or 50% more than an average slugging season.
Kirby Puckett had 678 XBH in 7244 AB but he was catching up career wise from such an awful start in his career when he had 17 XBH in 557 AB his first season and his second season wasn’t that much better either. Also you will be able to notice that his average is a bigger reason he was considered over 20% better than average hitter on OPS over his career than his power numbers. (other stats point that out as well, just saying this does too).
Anyway I thought this is something that I have observed throughout the years and thought I would share my little system for quick glancing power numbers. Have fun with this and share thoughts and stuff below.

  • Oldgoat_MN and Sconnie like this



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theBOMisthebomb
Jul 05 2018 01:59 PM
It's interesting how a deeper dive almost always seems to reveal Kirby Puckett's stats aren't as great as originally thought. I still say he's the greatest Twins player ever.

my recollection is that the eighties were down offensive years, and our current generation is up in terms of power hitting. Does 1 in 10 apply for Pucket as the bar? He was a very poor poer hitter when he first came up, he slapped everything.

 

Good observation and a nifty quick math guide!

Well the formula shows he was a poor power hitter his first few years.It also shows he was a good one later on.  

 

as far as accuracy of the times is concerned.You be the judge.I just use that as a quick glance to evaluate how i think a player is doing in the power department.if you think there are more power hitting as a whole going on they you can change it to 1.1 or 1.25 or whatever you think is most representative.I just go by 1.0 because its less work.This formula is not meant to be an exact science.I like to use it when we talk about trade rumors.I just look at the XBH ave when i hear what kind of player/ prospect we are talking about.