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Why Minnesota Must Trade Brian Dozier

Posted by jtkoupal , 19 December 2016 · 1,785 views

Why Minnesota Must Trade Brian Dozier Brian Dozier has been a fan-favorite for Twins fans since he started to break out in 2013. Every female in the Twin Cities has a crush on him, and in general, everyone respects the player that he is on the field and the person that he is off the field.

For me personally, Brian Dozier has been my favorite player since Justin Morneau. Those two are my favorite Twins of all time, in some order (I was not around for Hrbek, Puckett, Killebrew, Carew, etc.) and I would hate to see him move on.

Dozier is fresh off of a season in where he hit 42 home runs, which was good enough for a third place tie with Edwin Encarnacion and Khris Davis. However, it isn't just the 42 home runs that should capture one's eye, it should also be the 99 runs he drove in while hitting in just an average lineup. Furthermore, he finished 12th in the MLB in Slugging Percentage at .546, 20th in OPS at .886, and that has stayed healthy throughout his career while racking up Web Gems at second base.

Far and away, Dozier is the best player on Minnesota's roster at the moment. However, the Twins must trade Brian Dozier.

While his offensive production will be very difficult to replace with the players we own right now, it is also important to understand that Dozier is going into his age 30 season. At this age, it is worth questioning how many impact years he has left. He will undoubtedly be an effective player for several more years, but it is worth questioning whether he will put together many, if any, more years like this year or even the year prior. By no means can I predict the future, but it is certainly questionable whether Dozier will ever again amass 40+ bombs like he did in 2016, a question in which general managers around baseball are asking themselves as we speak. Dozier does certainly have more very good years left to play, but the real questions are "how good and how many?"

After losing more than 100 games in 2016, it is clear that the Twins are still not that close to competing. Andy MacPhail would argue that "Progress isn't linear," and by no means is he wrong, however given the state of the pitching staff and some question marks on offense as well, it would be a stretch to consider the Twins to be a contender in the next couple of years. By the time the Twins would be legitimate contenders again, Brian Dozier will be well into his 30's and his production is very likely to diminish by that time. If he is moved now, the Twins would have two or three top prospects come their way that they could develop for when the team is ready to step back into contention. Also, it would give them a chance to see what Jorge Polanco is capable of now instead of letting him waste away on the bench until Dozier is eventually cleared later.

Finally, and most importantly, Brian Dozier must be traded because his value is, quite possibly, the highest it is ever going to be. 2017 projects to be a good year for Dozier as well, and keeping him until sometime next season or next offseason could potentially pay off, but that also comes as a major risk. There is no guarantee of what level Dozier will be playing at next season. For all we know, he could tear his ACL in Spring Training. If we trade him now, we would acquire at least two prospects, quite possibly even a third, if rumors are true of the Dodgers willingness to add to their package.

Of course, I recognize that teams do not always offer enough in return for a certain player. If nobody offers enough in return, then it is absolutely better to keep Dozier. But if there are top prospects involved in the discussion, then it is best for the franchise moving forward to ship Dozier and bring in some fresh new talent for the future.

Watching star players and favorite players move on is painful to watch. This would be the most crushing trade since Justin Morneau was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 31, 2013. However, because of his age, his projected future production, and the current standing of the franchise, it is necessary for the Minnesota Twins, if offered a fair package, to trade Brian Dozier.

  • beckmt and Oldgoat_MN like this



I agree, you have to add 2-3 new arms(with higher ceilings) then the Twins currently have(not counting Romero, who seems to have the biggest upside).I would be very surprised if the Twins won more that 75 games this year, even with Dozier.To me the difference between 70 and 75 does not exist.The only chance to compete is to add, pitching, pitching and more pitching.Twins have enough position players to compete at this level, and you can use money to fill holes next offseason.Price of pitching is only going up and if Twins cannot get it cheap, they will not be able to contend by 2018-2019, with Pohlad giving 1-2 massive contracts to top of the line starters(very unlikely in my opinion).

    • Platoon likes this
While it may seem simplistic, the path to success for the Twins in the future goes through trading Dozier for pitching. But as big as the need for acquiring pitching is, the other understated need is to move Polanco off short. Imagine if the team keeps Dozier, either for two years and gets nothing when he leaves, or heaven forbid, extends him. That either leaves the SS position manned by Polancos bat, him wasting away as a sub, or worse traded. Sadly after 6 years of lousy play the reality is the Twins are still a team of the future. Any decision made to win a few extra games this year should be a huge red flag when analyzing the new FO.
    • Oldgoat_MN likes this

 

Price of pitching is only going up and if Twins cannot get it cheap, they will not be able to contend by 2018-2019, with Pohlad giving 1-2 massive contracts to top of the line starters(very unlikely in my opinion).

This year there is no pitching that is worth the massive contracts, even if the Twins were inclined to spend the money.

 

This would be the most crushing trade since Justin Morneau was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 31, 2013.

That was more sad than crushing.We didn't trade the Justin Morneau, we traded the shadow of the player Morneau used to be.

 

That was more sad than crushing.We didn't trade the Justin Morneau, we traded the shadow of the player Morneau used to be.

Correct, what I meant was that it was an emotional farewell. While he wasn't the player he once was, he was an icon to this franchise and one of the most, if not the most, sentimental (from the fans' perspective) players of his era. Eventually, when Mauer moves on, I think it will be significantly less sad then when Morneau left. The loss of production wasn't crushing, it was crushing as in sad, that is what I meant by that.

 

That was more sad than crushing.We didn't trade the Justin Morneau, we traded the shadow of the player Morneau used to be.

 

Not enough patience.

I remember how happy I was for him when he won the NL Batting title the next year. That was fun to see for Justin!

I agree with this article completely.

 

Dozier is an excellent player, but he is only worth what you can get for him.

He is not going to make us relevant this year. I really appreciate the player and person he is, but we need to get what pitching we can get for him and move forward.

 

Not enough patience.

I remember how happy I was for him when he won the NL Batting title the next year. That was fun to see for Justin!

Agreed, I was very happy to see Morneau accomplish that in 2014. However, the asterisk on that accomplishment is that he did that at Coors Field. Not to take away from his accomplishments by any means, but that would have been a tough feat to accomplish at Target Field. 

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FargoFanMan
Dec 22 2016 12:02 PM
I compare this to a knoblauch trade. The team isn't in as dire need as that team was but it needs to be a changer. We have no one else who can bring back what we need. The johan trade was not that dire. We had pieces then and were close. Just not the money at the time. I think the FO sees this as a kick start to contention in that we need to stockpile pitching to go with our young hitters.

 

I compare this to a knoblauch trade. The team isn't in as dire need as that team was but it needs to be a changer. We have no one else who can bring back what we need. The johan trade was not that dire. We had pieces then and were close. Just not the money at the time. I think the FO sees this as a kick start to contention in that we need to stockpile pitching to go with our young hitters.

Agreed. The new front office are not taking this trade lightly. They won't trade him just to trade him. They know what this team needs. I project this lineup will produce runs, but the state of the franchise relies on what stands on the pitcher's mound, both starters and relievers. Even without Dozier, the lineup may still be deep enough to produce some offense, but a boost to the starting staff could put this team over the top in the not-too-distant future.